Rugby World Cup Semi Finals - Welsh Warrant Respect

This weekend it’s all down to the final four, the Semi Finals of the 2011 Rugby World Cup are played on Saturday and Sunday morning with Wales first up, taking on France and Australia pitted against tournament hosts and favourites New Zealand. Last week we successfully picked a 1/2, 23/10 and a 9/5 shot – had Australia beaten South Africa by just two more points we’d have had 4 out of 4. We’ve once again analysed the matches to bring you our best bets of the two Semi Finals.

Wales announced their line up on Thursday, just one change from the starting XV that defeated Ireland. A shoulder injury to Rhys Priestland means the experienced James Hook will play at fly-half. The news of only one change means Luke Charteris has recovered from his shoulder knock, the lock hasn’t been training at full intensity, nor has the likes of Jamie Robert or captain Sam Warburton although all have been declared fit to face Marc Lieremont’s side. Lieremont has no new injury concerns and has named the XV that were victorious in the Quarter Final against the English.

(James Hook comes into the Welsh XV for the injured Ryan Priestland)

Much has been made this week about the previous matches between these sides. In the 88 matches there have been 43 wins for Wales, 42 for France and 3 draws, the cumulative score in the 88 matches is just as tight with 2 points separating the sides. Recent history however has France on top who have won 6 of the last 7.

Aside from their win against England in Auckland the French have been pretty average, pool stage defeats to New Zealand (no disgrace there!) and Tonga show they are vulnerable. Wales have never reached the final of the World Cup since its inception in 1987 and will be looking to make it a first in Auckland. Warren Gatland’s young side have had praise heaped upon them throughout the tournament, from the first match against South Africa in Wellington where they were defeated by a solitary point to last weekend's triumph against the Irish, again in Wellington.

We think the first 20 minutes of this clash are key, if Wales can withstand the early French onslaught we think they will be able to overcome Les Blues at Eden Park to reach the Final. Recent matches between the sides are generally tight and specifically on this occasion we see no reason why with would be any different. We think Wales will win it by 5 which is available with Paddy Power at 11/8.

Sunday's Semi Final sees two Southern Hemisphere giants face one another where New Zealand will play Australia for the second spot in the Final.

There are still concerns over the fitness of captain Richie McCaw, the 100+ capped Kiwi has been blighted with a foot injury that has troubled the Crusaders openside flanker for a number of weeks. Flanker Matt Todd has controversially been training with the All Blacks this week – questions have been raised about the eligibility of Todd as he hasn’t officially replaced an injured player, All Black officials have shrugged off any wrong-doing stating that no rules have been broken in using Todd in their training session. Kiwi fans are suspicious of the use of Todd in training – many assuming that his inclusion will eventually become a full replacement for McCaw due to his injury woes. One player that definitely won’t feature for the favourites is Mils Muliaina.

Australia will persevere with criticised fly-half Quade Cooper, the 23 year old Queensland Reds player has been off form and knows he’ll be jeered by the home nation. Cooper has spoken about his form this week and been very rational about it, reminding the press that it is a team game as as long as his side are successful it doesn’t matter how individuals perform. The Aussies have been quiet on a couple of knocks they picked up against South Africa however we expect them to line-up in a similar fashion.

(The Wallabies much maligned Quade Cooper)

Recent history is fairly even between the two countries, Australia claiming victory last time out by 5 points. Overall history has New Zealand way out on top with 96 victories to 41. When facing the All Blacks in New Zealand Australia have only been victorious 23% of the time, in the 65 matches Australia have scored an average of 12 points, a tally they’ll surely need to surpass if they want victory in this one.

Some of the New Zealand camp claim they are yet to hit full speed, if they don’t fulfil their potential in this game the Aussies will fancy their chances, we think however that The All Blacks will have enough to overcome the Wallabies, and fancy them to do so by 7+ points. You can back New Zealand to win by at least this margin at evens with Paddy Power.

Selections

Back Wales to beat France at 4/5 (various)

Back Wales to beat France by 5 or more points at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

Back New Zealand to beat Australia at 2/5 (various)

Back New Zealand to beat Australia by 7 or more points at Evens (Paddy Power)