Rugby World Cup Semi Finals - Welsh Warrant Respect

This weekend it’s all down to the final four, the Semi Finals of the 2011 Rugby World Cup are played on Saturday and Sunday morning with Wales first up, taking on France and Australia pitted against tournament hosts and favourites New Zealand. Last week we successfully picked a 1/2, 23/10 and a 9/5 shot – had Australia beaten South Africa by just two more points we’d have had 4 out of 4. We’ve once again analysed the matches to bring you our best bets of the two Semi Finals.

Wales announced their line up on Thursday, just one change from the starting XV that defeated Ireland. A shoulder injury to Rhys Priestland means the experienced James Hook will play at fly-half. The news of only one change means Luke Charteris has recovered from his shoulder knock, the lock hasn’t been training at full intensity, nor has the likes of Jamie Robert or captain Sam Warburton although all have been declared fit to face Marc Lieremont’s side. Lieremont has no new injury concerns and has named the XV that were victorious in the Quarter Final against the English.

(James Hook comes into the Welsh XV for the injured Ryan Priestland)

Much has been made this week about the previous matches between these sides. In the 88 matches there have been 43 wins for Wales, 42 for France and 3 draws, the cumulative score in the 88 matches is just as tight with 2 points separating the sides. Recent history however has France on top who have won 6 of the last 7.

Aside from their win against England in Auckland the French have been pretty average, pool stage defeats to New Zealand (no disgrace there!) and Tonga show they are vulnerable. Wales have never reached the final of the World Cup since its inception in 1987 and will be looking to make it a first in Auckland. Warren Gatland’s young side have had praise heaped upon them throughout the tournament, from the first match against South Africa in Wellington where they were defeated by a solitary point to last weekend's triumph against the Irish, again in Wellington.

We think the first 20 minutes of this clash are key, if Wales can withstand the early French onslaught we think they will be able to overcome Les Blues at Eden Park to reach the Final. Recent matches between the sides are generally tight and specifically on this occasion we see no reason why with would be any different. We think Wales will win it by 5 which is available with Paddy Power at 11/8.

Sunday's Semi Final sees two Southern Hemisphere giants face one another where New Zealand will play Australia for the second spot in the Final.

There are still concerns over the fitness of captain Richie McCaw, the 100+ capped Kiwi has been blighted with a foot injury that has troubled the Crusaders openside flanker for a number of weeks. Flanker Matt Todd has controversially been training with the All Blacks this week – questions have been raised about the eligibility of Todd as he hasn’t officially replaced an injured player, All Black officials have shrugged off any wrong-doing stating that no rules have been broken in using Todd in their training session. Kiwi fans are suspicious of the use of Todd in training – many assuming that his inclusion will eventually become a full replacement for McCaw due to his injury woes. One player that definitely won’t feature for the favourites is Mils Muliaina.

Australia will persevere with criticised fly-half Quade Cooper, the 23 year old Queensland Reds player has been off form and knows he’ll be jeered by the home nation. Cooper has spoken about his form this week and been very rational about it, reminding the press that it is a team game as as long as his side are successful it doesn’t matter how individuals perform. The Aussies have been quiet on a couple of knocks they picked up against South Africa however we expect them to line-up in a similar fashion.

(The Wallabies much maligned Quade Cooper)

Recent history is fairly even between the two countries, Australia claiming victory last time out by 5 points. Overall history has New Zealand way out on top with 96 victories to 41. When facing the All Blacks in New Zealand Australia have only been victorious 23% of the time, in the 65 matches Australia have scored an average of 12 points, a tally they’ll surely need to surpass if they want victory in this one.

Some of the New Zealand camp claim they are yet to hit full speed, if they don’t fulfil their potential in this game the Aussies will fancy their chances, we think however that The All Blacks will have enough to overcome the Wallabies, and fancy them to do so by 7+ points. You can back New Zealand to win by at least this margin at evens with Paddy Power.

Selections

Back Wales to beat France at 4/5 (various)

Back Wales to beat France by 5 or more points at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

Back New Zealand to beat Australia at 2/5 (various)

Back New Zealand to beat Australia by 7 or more points at Evens (Paddy Power) 

Argentina to be left Phelan the pain

Exactly a month after the first game of the 2011 Rugby World Cup by midday on Sunday we'll know the Semi Final line up as the second two Quarter Finals are played. Hosts and favourites New Zealand take on Argentina and South Africa are matched against Australia. Wales and France have already booked their place in the Semi's having defeated Ireland and England respectively earlier today.

The All Blacks take on Santiago Phelan's Argentina who are currently 8th in the IRB World Ranking's. Bookmakers have this one very one sided with New Zealand being offered at as little as 1/66 to win the match outright. Previous encounters between the two teams have been greatly one sided, New Zealand having never lost to against their opponents in 16 matches. We see no reason why the Los Pumas will put a halt to this run in Auckland on Sunday and predict a fairly comfortable victory for Graham Henry's side. If the challenge wasn't big enough for Argentina the news earlier in the week that inspirational captain Richie McCaw has begun to train again after recovering from a foot injury will only add to their headache, Zac Guildford however may miss the game due to an injury he picked up to his hamstring in training.

(The All Blacks welcome back captian Richie McCaw to the starting line-up)

During the pool stages New Zealand ran in 11 more tries than any other side (36), they played the pool stages with freedom but may need to start thinking more strategically if they are to add to their 1987 World Cup triumph. Argentina conceded just 3 tries in their 4 pool games and will look to keep this as tight as they did against Scotland and England. However New Zealand pose a totally different prospect, especially on home turf. Make no mistake New Zealand will win but by how many? We're confident they'll do it by 20+ points.

The other quarter final is much more evenly poised. the Wallabies taking on the Springboks in Wellington. South Africa are boosted by the news captain John Smit returns to the starting XV, the 103 times capped hooker had previously started the final pool match against Samoa on the replacments bench. Smit's introduction softens the blow to South Africa who are likely to be without Frans Steyn. Thirty year old Jean de Villiers the likely beneficiary, Bakkies Botha will definitly miss the contest and should South Africa progress it's unclear whether he'll recover to play any further part in the tournament.

Highly regarded coach Robbie Deans will be doing everything in his power to ensure that his talented young Austrailian side make it 5 victories on the bounce against thier Southern Hemisphere conterparts. The Wallabies bounced back in their final group game against Italy with a decent 26 point victory after one of the upsets of the tournament in defeat to the Irish in Auckland. Aussie prop Ben Alexander says the squad have bounced back and they have 'learnt their lessons'. Alexander attributes defeat in the main to their poor scrummaging which they have been working on in the run up to the quarter final against the South African's who, in recent times, have been dominant in the scrum. We think this is where the game will be won and lost, we favour the Australian's to nick it by a small margin, as they did back in August during the Tri-Nations (5 point winnning margin). The Wallabies can be backed at 9/5 to win by 1 to 10 points (Paddy Power).

Selections

Back New Zealand to beat Argentina on the alternative handicap (-20) at 1/2 (Paddy Power)

Back New Zealand to beat Argentina by 21-30 points at 23/10 (Paddy Power)
Back Australia to beat South Africa on the alternative handicap (-4) at 13/10 (Paddy Power)
Back Australia to beat South Africa by 1-10 points at 9/5 (Paddy Power)