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Tuesday, 4 October 2011

Fallon to fulfil his Destiny & become champion?

The champion jockey title race looks to coming down to a match between last year's winner Paul Hanagan & six time champ Kieren Fallon after Fallon's double on Tuesday pulled him within 7 winners of Hanagan leaving Silvestre De Sousa now 12 off the pace. Odds of 9/4 for Fallon to win the title seem short enough but Hanagan's last winner was on the 29th & we think Fallon has a great chance to add to his tally on Wednesday in both division's of Nottingham's 10 furlong handicap.

(Kieren Fallon will be looking for multiple winners every day from now on in)

In the 1st division Fallon rides Destiny of a Diva for Reg Hollinshead, not a trainer/jockey combination that is often seen but they did team up with a success for Fallon on Flowing Cape this past Saturday. Destiny of a Diva has run disappointingly in 2 of her last 3 runs since winning comfortably at Leicester but has good excuses for both of those runs, firstly coming out of the stalls slowly at Chester (the one track in the UK that it can't be at all afforded) & last time out coming 4th at Kempton where it was her first try at the somewhat idiosyncratic track. Overall her profile is impressive with 3 wins from 10 runs & a further 4 top 3 finishes, Hollinshead had given her a two month break before running last time & she should be tuned up for this race & will appreciate the sound surface. She's 10 pounds higher than when last winning but only lost out by a neck off of a 3 pound lower mark & with Fallon on board she can run a big race. Mark Johnston's Ampleforth is a dangerous challenger on its handicap debut & Godolphin's Estourah should be open to improvement but at the available odds an each way punt on Destiny of a Diva at 9/1 seems the way to go.

In the second division Fallon  is riding for a more familiar name when he gets on board Luca Cumani's Hunter Forward a 5 year old Australian mare that has won 2 of her 3 races in Britain so far. She failed at odds of 7/4 to win at Newcastle last time but that was on soft ground over two furlongs further & this return to a quicker surface should see her in much better light. A 5 week break should have helped her get over those exertions & she can beat another Mark Johnston horse making its handicap debut in this race, his Landaman won a maiden by 8 lengths in easy fashion last time. Landaman's win was good but the race at Pontefract looked a poor affair & of the two horses to have raced since one came 6th & the other 10th of 10 at big prices in a Yarmouth maiden, Landaman should be up to winning off of this mark but may have to wait another day. Hunter Forward can be backed at 3/1 with Paddy Power & that looks a good price.

Nottingham 4.00 - Destiny of a Diva each way at 9/1 (general)
Nottingham 4.30 - Hunter Forward at 3/1 (Paddy Power)

Above selections in a double with Bet365 paying £37.50 to a £1 stake

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