African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Three Thursday

Thursday of the Festival & attendees will get the bonus of the Cross Country race getting run here after not going ahead on Tuesday, there is a whole day of competitive & top class racing. It remains to be seen whether Willie Mullins can continue to get the winners - we're hoping for one of his at a big price! The New One won easily for us yesterday at advised odds of 9/2 & with just four selections so far we're in profit - picking one in every race just isn't our style & we'd much rather be selective & turn a profit than pick several winners & still end up losing money!

2.40 - Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair has grown in stature as a race over the years & it has claims to be considered up there with some of the true championship races at the festival now, certainly the World Hurdle at least, & this year sees a high class field again including two-time winner Albertas Run & last year's victor Riverside Theatre. It's competitive too with 7 of the 8 runners trading at odds of 14/1 or shorter & everyone of them having an official rating of 155+, we think there's value in the race & will be going for a horse that is progressive yet already proven as well.

(Winners of the last 3 Ryanair Chases - Riverside Theatre & Albertas Run line up again)

Albertas Run deserves maximum respect as it's a horse with a great record in the race after finishing 2nd last year to follow its two wins in 2010 & 2011 plus a win as a novice chaser in the RSA, but Jonjo O'Neill's bay gelding now hasn't run for nearly a year after failing at Aintree. The horse clearly goes well fresh but time has surely got to catch up with him at some point & at 12 years old it could be this time around & we'll reluctantly pass by. Last year's winner Riverside Theatre has only raced once since Aintree last year, when failing to see out the distance in the King George, & is another that can go well fresh & looks certain to stay up the hill strongly as he did last year to win under a rousing Barry Geraghty ride, we're just a bit concerned that this year's race looks a touch stronger & after only just prevailing last time it's a harder task this time around.

The favourite for the race at the time of writing is First Lieutenant & Mouse Morris's horse has some top class form but does struggle to win & hasn't passed the post in front since November 2011, that isn't necessarily a worry as the horse has some great festival form with a Neptune Novices Hurdle win in 2011 & a 2nd (to this year's Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth) in last year's RSA. First Lieutenant has however looked a stayer to us & was only just touched off in the Lexus in Ireland over 4 furlongs further, it seems he's running in this race in an effort to avoid Bob's Worth & we'd rather go with a horse that looks a specialist at the distance, especially when the price is so short.

(Cue Card looks all class to us & can win the 2m4f championship)

Cue Card looks the one to concentrate on here as Colin Tizzard's gelding came 2nd in last year's top novice race the Arkle behind the virtually unbeatable Sprinter Sacre & has since only gone down when trying to step up to 3 miles in the King George after travelling nicely for a way before blowing up. Before that Cue Card had smashed the field (including rival here Menorah) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & then last time he took advantage of a terrible blunder from Captain Chris to win the Ascot Chase, he may have won already that day & the race looks a nice trial for this one. Cue Card looks a nice jumper & should be able to cope with whatever tactics are employed in the race & looks the winner at odds of 100/30.

Champion Court & Menorah are the other horses priced in single figures but Menorah looks well held on that Exeter run with Cue Card & Champion Court may be being overrated for the King George run when showing his best form for some time & next time out couldn't beat the mare Alasi so we're happily swerving both of these.

3.20 - World Hurdle

(Reve de Sivola & Oscar Whisky head the World Hurdle betting but we'll pass over)

The World Hurdle this year is obviously missing its star turn in the incomparable Big Bucks but it actually now make the race a very exciting betting event, but not necessarily an easy one to pick the winner from! Oscar Whisky looks like it may head the market but was well beaten last year when not appearing to stay & was outbattled in a war of a race in the key trial for this by Reve de Sivola, that race could have left its mark on both of the horses & in an open affair we'll leave both alone.

Peddlers Cross is probably the most interesting horse in the race as a former Champion Hurdle runner up & he looked a top chasing prospect & has actually started an odds on favourite against Sprinter Sacre before! He won the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2010 & that would be the best indicator in terms of novice races for this, he's never raced quite this far & wasn't exactly electrifying when winning at 1/5 a month ago at Musselburgh. We're just a little concerned that this race may come a little too soon for Peddlers Cross after a problem before his season started seems to have really set back Donald McCain's star.

(So Young could spring a surprise at 25/1)

At a very big price we like the look of So Young as a live contender, he's a Willie Mullins horse & that stable has been dominating the festival so far so we wouldn't be surprised to see this one backed in from current odds of 25/1. He was a 2/1 favourite for the Neptune two years back & then an odds on favourite for the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle which shows how good a novice the horse was but he was well beaten in this race last year & then raced disappointingly next time at Fairyhouse. Since then however So Young appears to have raced nicely with a 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown & then a 2nd behind the very decent Solwhit, it was his last race that took the eye though with a comprehensive defeat of stablemate Zaidpour (another that's looked full of promise at a time) & we think So Young may be on an upward curve - in an open race we like the look of it as an each way bet at 25/1.

Selections:
2.40 - Cue Card to win at 100/30 (Various)
3.20 - So Young each way at 25/1 (General)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Two Wednesday

The second day of the Festival & we'll see the shortest priced runner of the week as Sprinter Sacre lines up in the feature race of the day, that should be a spectacle but maybe not a betting proposition, instead check out our thoughts below for a guide to the day's racing. Tuesday saw us draw a blank as we opposed Hurricane Fly (the horse ran a mightily impressive race) & My Tent Or Yours just wouldn't go past Champagne Fever after travelling like a sure fire winner, it was only two selections though & we'll hope for better here.

3.20 - Champion Chase

Lets get this out of the way first - Sprinter Sacre is a monstrous horse in this two mile division & we're not keen to take on Henderson's wonder horse here, but there is possibly some value to be had in the 'without the favourite' market & that's what we'll concentrate on.

(Sprinter Sacre looks nigh on unbeatable in the Champion Chase)

Sizing Europe heads the without Sprinter Sacre market at a top price of evens & it's fair enough that he should as a two-time festival winner, first off in the Arkle & then following up (as many Arkle winners do) in this race two years ago. Some reckoned Sizing Europe to be unfortunate when losing narrowly to Finians Rainbow last year when short of room as they omitted the final fence & Sizing's form since has been impeccable since with two Grade One wins & three Grade Twos from 5 starts & a couple of those victories came over 4 furlongs further suggesting a relative stamina test (with soft conditions) will not be a problem. The key to winning the race without Sprinter Sacre however may lie in not taking that horse on at all & instead concentrating on getting that 2nd spot - it will be hard for Andrew Lynch not to at least try to take on Sprinter Sacre as he sits on a past Champion Chaser & that could mean this one gets tired before the end & the value could lie elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire has looked impressive at times this season but it was hard not to be disappointed with his last run at this track when finishing just 4th behind Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase & with very similar conditions in this race we have to look for another to finish 2nd. Mail de Bievre has only run once in the UK since 2009 after moving to Tom George's stable from France after previously being a bumper horse with Alan King but that run was one that was full of promise after going exceptionally well for a long way before tiring against Gold Cup prospects Silviniaco Conti & The Giant Bolster in the Denman Chase at Newbury. It certainly seemed like a step back in distance was what was needed for this one but dropping back a full mile isn't easy & they'll go a fair clip in this one, conditions however will help & the ground will be typical of the type it's run on in France, with a bit of market support we're going to side with Mail de Bievre to chase the favourite home at odds of 6/1.

(Mail de Bievre can plough through the soft ground to chase the winner home)

Wishfull Thinking ran a poor race at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase just after Christmas but either side of that has won well in soft conditions at this distance here at Cheltenham when slamming inferior rivals & then when beating some useful types including French Opera (giving that one 6 pounds) with a rousing finish, going away, at Newbury. The race here should be run to suit & Richard Johnson can ride his usual waiting race & pick off rivals as they tire towards the end of the race, Wishfull Thinking is a two-time Cheltenham winner already but is maybe not a big enough price to consider as value when you exclude the favourite. The horse crashed out dramatically at the 4th fence last year, wiping out a photographer (we were posted on the rails directly opposite & got a great view!), & isn't always the most fluent jumper so is just a little too risky a proposition.

2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Another red hot favourite runs in the novices hurdle over 2m4f with Pont Alexandre heading the market at top odds of 7/4 & it's difficult to do down the chances of Willie Mullins' horse that won a Grade One over the distance on debut & then followed up with a facile success again over the distance in a Grade Two. Both of those wins came in heavy ground & Pont Alexandre made all so there appear to be no fears with regards tactics but we are reluctant to get too sucked in when the horse doesn't appear to have beaten any rivals of particular note.

(The Twiston-Davies's will be hoping The New One can win the Neptune)

We were at Cheltenham when The New One was narrowly headed by At Fishers Cross in a trial race for this in January & the form of the race looks rock solid with the pair pulling clear of two-time Grade Two winner Coneygree & the winner of the race now heads the market for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. The New One was maybe unlucky to lose that last race as he was only headed late on & had little time to try to battle back, he'd already won another two trial races for this, one in a class two here & another when smashing the field in a Grade Two at Warwick. Sam Twiston-Davies will need to be more patient with his charge in this one than he was when beaten by At Fishers Cross but with Pont Alexandre looking likely to be a target to aim at The New One can be delivered late & outbattle his less experienced rival, odds of 9/2 for a horse proven in conditions look decent.

Taquin Du Seuil is certainly a worthy opponent too as he's only been beaten once in his British racing career & that was by the potentially very high class My Tent Or Yours. Rule The World & Chatterbox are other big contenders but Puffin Billy was well beaten by Melodic Rendezvous last time & looks like he may be one to avoid for the time being.

Selections:
3.20 - Mail de Bievre to win without Sprinter Sacre at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Boylesports)
2.05 - The New One to win at 9/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day One - Tuesday

It's eventually here! Cheltenham Festival is upon us & there look to be some potentially amazing races in prospect & certainly some fancy betting propositions. Here we take a look at the opening day of the festival including the Champion Hurdle & the very first race, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Followers of the blog at last year's festival were rewarded with some nice priced winners in top races as we picked out Finians Rainbow (9/2) in the Champion Chase & Riverside Theatre (5/1) in the Ryanair plus the strongly advised bankers of Big Bucks (4/6) & Sprinter Sacre (10/11) who made those prices look hugely generous! Kumbeshwar (each way at 14/1) also picked up place money in the final race of the meeting & it meant winning bets in 5 of the 10 races we looked at over the 4 days. We'll be following a similar format this time around with picks for each of the feature races each day & another race or maybe two - with 27 races you can't expect to find winners in all of them & some races are best avoided altogether! We'll be going for quality over quantity with proper write ups & reasons behind our selections.

3.20 - Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle looks to be another great race this year with 4 of the top 5 in the betting all re-opposing after taking part in the 2012 edition, Rock On Ruby won by nearly 4 lengths that time but is 3rd favourite here behind multiple Grade One winner Hurricane Fly & our favourite horse Zarkandar.

(Hurricane Fly would be a popular winner but he's not for us I'm afraid)

Hurricane Fly of course demands maximum respect after winning so many races in the top grade but we haven't changed our tune since strongly wanting to oppose last year, the Grade Ones he's repeatedly won (often with ease) have been lacking in quality & depth. In 'the Fly's' last ten races, outside of the two Champion Hurdles, the field sizes have been as follows 5,5,6,5,4,3,5 & 5 & the opposition has been nowhere near the standard of the field he'll face on Tuesday. He looked a little fortunate to win his first race of the season when Go Native fell at the last & his other races this year haven't been too competitive although he's won well. We didn't think much of the 2011 Champion Hurdle that Hurricane Fly won & we think if you take a look at the horses he beat that day you'll agree that none of them are or have been true top 2 mile hurdlers with most either stepping up in distance since or moving to chasing or simply not being able to compete against the current crop. There don't appear to be too many excuses for Hurricane Fly finishing 3rd in last year's race when he was well beaten & only two horses as old as him, 9 years, have won the race in the last 30 runnings - at a top price of 2/1 & with the ground looking to be coming up soft which will blunt his turn of foot we feel he's to be avoided & will be laying for a place at short odds.

Rock On Ruby won well last year with the previous two champions in behind (Hurricane Fly 3rd & Binocular 4th) plus Zarkandar was in 5th, it was by far the best performance Rock On Ruby had ever put in & whilst we liked his profile last time (advised in a forecast with Zarkandar) his form since hasn't been so great. Well beaten when stepping up in distance whilst trying to follow up at Aintree & then on seasonal debut by Zarkandar & Grandouet he gained a victory last time he won in the 32red hurdle at Doncaster last time out but looked likely to be beaten by Darlan before that one's fatal fall at the final hurdle. Harry Fry's charge should put in a bold display to hold onto his title but will find it hard to turn around the form of the International Hurdle.

(Zarkandar - mastering Rock On Ruby & Grandouet here in December can follow up in the big one)

We've been keen on Zarkandar ever since his debut when he won the Grade Two Adonis hurdle in smart style & then seemed to relish the Cheltenham hill when winning the Triumph on only his second outing & putting some smart types, including Grandouet, in their place. Last season was a more difficult one for Zarkava's (brilliant Arc winning filly) brother as Paul Nicholls took some time to get him to the track & although winning impressively in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a troubled preparation meant that the Champion Hurdle came a little too soon to show him at his brilliant best but the way that he made up ground after being far behind at the final hurdle was eye-catching. He fell at Aintree next time but has done everything right this year, winning when not fully tuned up & giving plenty of weight away on his first run of the season & then winning against Grandouet (again) with Rock On Ruby well behind, last month's win at Wincanton was strightforward enough & should have put him spot on fitness-wise. Zarkandar is surely the best battler in the lineup & the Cheltenham hill suits his strengths, along with the juice in the ground it all looks to be pointing towards Paul Nicholls' first 'real' Champion Hurdle winner (Rock On Rucby was trained by Harry Fry at a satellite yard) & odds of 7/2 look fair.

Grandouet hasn't managed to get back onto the track since the International Hurdle & that tempers enthusiasm somewhat but we still feel he's the biggest danger to the selection, coming from the powerful Nicky Henderson stable & looking a better prospect than Binocular who's always been a bit of a bridle horse & looks another a bit long in the tooth at 9 years old.

1.30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle

The Festival's curtain raiser will be met with the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' at the start & then the action gets underway, we've been thinking we may oppose the red hot favourite My Tent Or Yours in the buildup, purely on value grounds, but the closer we've got & the more we've studied, the more difficult he looks to beat.

(My Tent Or Yours can leave his rivals trailing in the distance)

Melodic Rendezvous has already won a Grade One at Sandown & slammed Puffin Billy at Exeter last time, who looked a prospect himself up to that point, & has outstanding bumper form too (finishing 2nd in the Punchestown Champion Bumper behind Champagne Fever). We're somewhat put off by the fact the Sandown race looked a little weak for the grade & (as mentioned in our followers blog) we've heard a whisper that there has been a virus scare with the horse & it's enough to put us off. (Melodic Rendezvous was withdrawn on Monday after a late (cough cough - we knew on Friday) bad scope)

Two Irish raiders look the chief threat to the selection with Un Atout unbeaten & coming from the awesome Willie Mullins stable, Jezki who's undefeated over hurdles & already an impressive two-time Grade One winner. Un Atout is all about potential with only two hurdle races under his belt & has been a short odds on favourite for both races, won impressively in customary heavy Irish ground, that means the ground should suit here but we don't know whether those two races will have prepared it for this rather more demanding test & we think you'll see the best of this one in future seasons. Jezki though looks a super horse already & has already done enough to suggest he'd be challenging for favouritism in a different year, he's beaten another contender here, Champagne Fever, well & that form looks solid judging on both horses subsequent defeats of Bright New Dawn who Jezki beat further than his rival did. With four hurdle wins already & smart form shown Jezki looks nearly a certainty to be placed & with William Hill offering 5 places on the race that could be a near enough risk free each way bet.

My Tent Or Yours though looks something else, Henderson's charge would have been well fancied if he'd lined up in the Champion Hurdle after his incredible victory in one of the season's most competitive & valuable handicaps where he gave weight away to all but two of his rivals & slammed them with consumate ease. That win was off a mark of 149 & you'd have thought he had a stone in hand of the handicapper that day which would already make him good enough to win this race in most years, he also has smart bumper form after finishing 2nd in Aintree's championship race & has taken that form to a higher level now hurdling. Softish ground shouldn't hold any fears even though surprisingly beaten on heavy at Newbury just after Christmas - that was a blot on his copybook but if you can forgive that the recent form looks top notch. At odds of 7/4 My Tent Or Yours can provide a nice winning start to Cheltenham Festival 2013.

Selections:
1.30 - My Tent Or Yours to win at 7/4 (General)
3.20 - Zarkandar to win at 7/2 (General)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Followers' Best Bets

Cheltenham Festival is great - I think that most punters can agree on that but although it can be a week where you can win a fortune there's also the potential to lose one too! We've asked followers to send their best bets of the week so you can keep track of how they're doing & who knows maybe we'll end up with a consensus on what the best bets are...

Here we go then, below you'll see the follower's Twitter name & their selection along with the race & day that race is on. Good luck to all of you (unless you're opposing our selections!). If you send your best pick of the week through to us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney we'll add to the bottom of this list below.

Followers' best Cheltenham 2013 bets:

(The Jeremy Scott trained Melodic Rendezvous is popular amongst our followers)

@Clive_Mallon - Reve De Sivola in the World Hurdle on Thursday at 5/1 (Ladbrokes).

@CMcKenna81 - Road To Riches in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Friday at 16/1 (SkyBet, Totesport & Betfred), he also likes the chances of Melodic Rendezvous (Supreme Novices) & Boston Bob (The RSA looks likely).

@andrewdeighan - Un Atout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday at 8/1 (General) (This is the Festival's opening race so good luck Andrew - hope it's a great start!).

@CTGBreathnach - is opposing Andrew above & going for Melodic Rendezvous in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday at 10/1. (Melodic Rendezvous is trained out at my hometown so I'll be trying to hear whether there are any local whispers - update: there apparently has been a potential virus scare so could be one to avoid)

(Talked up as a Gold Cup prospect last year, Hunt Ball goes for the Byrne Group Plate)

@AndyMehers - Likes David Pipe's potential handicap blot Ballynagour in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday & the odds at time of checking were 5/1 (Ladbrokes & William Hill).

@bartiestagg - is going for Our Mick at 7/1 (Bet365 & William Hill) in the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

@stuie28 - liked China Rock with a run in the Ryanair (it doesn't go) but also Captain Chris in the Gold Cup on Friday at tasty odds of 16/1 (General). He also reckons Hurricane Fly & Dyanste are the lays of the meeting. (We agree with one of these so check back to find out!)

@OgilvieJamie - goes for Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday at 7/1 reckoning his owner will have placed him well to recoup some betting losses. (I've got Hunt Ball as a horse to avoid until his handicap mark drops a bit more)

@Broony_Steve - has three fancies in Bob's Worth (Gold Cup), At Fishers Cross (probably the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) & Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle).

Red Devils can make it Hell for Real

Champions League football returns for the deciding legs of the first knockout round & we're liking Tuesday night's games as they look to hold some value for the home sides as Borussia Dortmund host Shakhtar Donetsk & Man United take on Real Madrid at Old Trafford.

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk

This tie between German champions (for the last two years) Borussia Dortmund & their Ukranian counterparts Shakhtar is sitting balanced at 2-2 but there's good reason to believe that Dortmund will be able to outclass & outpower Shakhtar now back here in the Westfalenstadion.

(Mats Hummels & Neven Subotic provide Dortmund's defensive platform)

Dortmund already hold an advantage with two away goals but that doesn't mean they are likely to sit back as they have some of Europe's most exciting & coveted attacking talent in their fluid front three of Marco Reuss, Mario Gotze & lethal striker Robert Lewandoski. Bayern Munich may be running away with the league this term but Dortmund are still 2nd & they've only lost 4 matches in the league so far, with the aforementioned three players all in double figures for goals & Polish midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski too. Blaszcykowski has really stepped up on the offensive front this season & it looks like he'll contribute to an all-out offensive against Shakhtar who just aren't used to this quality in their national league where they've won 18 of 19 games this season in a cakewalk.

Shakhtar have some fine players themselves with ex-Arsenal forward, the 'Brazilian-Croatian' Eduardo a constant pacey menace up front along with 'Brazilian-Brazilian' Luiz Adriano alongside, they did lose star midfielder Willian (who scored twice vs Chelsea) to the big-spending Russian club Anzhi though. We also like their captain the Croatian Darijo Srna who scored with a free kick in the first leg, he can operate either at right back or further up the pitch & is dependable & dangerous in equal measure. The goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov also looks decent from what we saw of him at the European Championships for Ukraine but overall the side will struggle to match-up against Dortmund. They don't just have to worry about the German side's attacking players but also their strength in central defence where they have two of the best young centre backs in football with Subotic & Hummels, Hummels excelled for Germany in the Euros & is sought after by several of the elite sides in Europe. Shakhtar Donetsk needed to win in their home leg to progress in this one & they could find it tough going as their domestic season has only just started again after the long winter break.

Dortmund have already beaten Real Madrid & Manchester City at home & they are serious teams (even though City haven't got the hang of European football yet!) so to get odds of 8/13 about them winning in 90 minutes here looks a gift. It may be that the bookies reckon they won't go all out if they are drawing 0-0 or 1-1 as that will take them through but manager Jurgen Klopp will not want to see it that finely balanced & we can see a clear win in this one.

Manchester United vs Real Madrid

We've already tipped Man United to go qualify over Real Madrid & we're not about to abandon the English champions-elect now as they look to take their outstanding domestic form into this game & beat Madrid who sit just 3rd in the Spanish league.

(Xabi Alonso & Ronaldo are key players United need to stop for Madrid)

It's not easy to predict the starting lineup for United although it seems almost certain van Persie & Rooney will start plus Welbeck too after his important contribution in the first leg, it would also be good to see Kagawa given the start again after his hat-trick on Saturday, particularly bearing in mind the difficulty he caused in the Real defence first time around with his runs in behind even though he didn't have a great game. Regardless of who starts for United they will be set up with the express intention of stopping former Old Trafford hero Cristiano Ronaldo whilst also trying to create chance themselves & whilst that obviously isn't easy Ferguson is surely the manager most capable of finding a way to stop the Portuguese menace - we wouldn't be surprised to find out that Phil Jones' injury miraculously clears up in time or even that Wayne Rooney gets asked to do a number on Ronaldo!

United's achievements this year, in particularly in the last two to three months have been a team effort, van Persie of course has been excellent but it has been difficult to criticise any player, save for Antonio Valencia, in recent games as everyone has been dependable most of the time with individuals stepping up as needed. It's different approach from that of Madrid who still give the impression of 11 individuals & that's why they sit so far off Barcelona in the league as individuals can't gain the consistency of a true team of players. Real have certainly hit form recently with two wins against Barcelona (who are in their worst run of form in years) in the past week & they are probably capable of a better one-off performance than United but there's no guarantee of that on Tuesday. United have been outstanding for months having not lost a meaningful game since November, winning 14 of 16 league games (drawing away to good sides in Spurs & Swansea) & progressing in the FA Cup - regardless of what's said about English football being in decline, the English league as a whole is no less strong than La Liga after Barcelona are taken out of the equation.

Madrid will certainly be feeling good after those two Barcelona victories but they won't see themselves as the favourites that the bookies do, a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu was a victory for United & now they hold home advantage which is important in domestic games but a bigger advantage in European ones. Of course Real could do it, they've some outstanding players & Mesut Ozil could punish United if they allow him space like they did in the first leg but Madrid have already lost 5 times away in the league so taking United at a huge price of 23/10 to win looks the best option here. It is exceptionally rare to see Man United at that kind of price at home & it's time to start believing that they may be as good as their points total looks, with de Gea stepping up in goal & Evans responding superbly to being given a new long-term contract they have the steel at the back to support the sparkle at the front & can beat Mourinho's slightly flaky 'Galacticos'!

(Nani is a difference maker)

Talking of 'sparkle' we think that United's most 'twinkly-toed' Michael Jackson & Cristiano Ronaldo impersonator Nani may be the best bet for first goalscorer at 14/1, he has struggled with injury & form for most of the season but came off the bench in the first half against Reading last week & took the game by the scruff of the neck just like Ronaldo used to. This could be the game where Nani puts himself to another level, we all know he has the skills & if Ferguson puts him into this game he will relish it - it's a big 'if' so wait until the teams are announced then have a little punt.

Selections:
Borussia Dortmund to beat Shakhtar Donetsk at 8/13 (General)
Manchester United to beat Real Madrid at 23/10 (Bet365)
Nani to score first at 14/1 (Blue Square & 888Sport) - if he's in the starting XI