Red Devils can make it Hell for Real

Champions League football returns for the deciding legs of the first knockout round & we're liking Tuesday night's games as they look to hold some value for the home sides as Borussia Dortmund host Shakhtar Donetsk & Man United take on Real Madrid at Old Trafford.

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk

This tie between German champions (for the last two years) Borussia Dortmund & their Ukranian counterparts Shakhtar is sitting balanced at 2-2 but there's good reason to believe that Dortmund will be able to outclass & outpower Shakhtar now back here in the Westfalenstadion.

(Mats Hummels & Neven Subotic provide Dortmund's defensive platform)

Dortmund already hold an advantage with two away goals but that doesn't mean they are likely to sit back as they have some of Europe's most exciting & coveted attacking talent in their fluid front three of Marco Reuss, Mario Gotze & lethal striker Robert Lewandoski. Bayern Munich may be running away with the league this term but Dortmund are still 2nd & they've only lost 4 matches in the league so far, with the aforementioned three players all in double figures for goals & Polish midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski too. Blaszcykowski has really stepped up on the offensive front this season & it looks like he'll contribute to an all-out offensive against Shakhtar who just aren't used to this quality in their national league where they've won 18 of 19 games this season in a cakewalk.

Shakhtar have some fine players themselves with ex-Arsenal forward, the 'Brazilian-Croatian' Eduardo a constant pacey menace up front along with 'Brazilian-Brazilian' Luiz Adriano alongside, they did lose star midfielder Willian (who scored twice vs Chelsea) to the big-spending Russian club Anzhi though. We also like their captain the Croatian Darijo Srna who scored with a free kick in the first leg, he can operate either at right back or further up the pitch & is dependable & dangerous in equal measure. The goalkeeper Andriy Pyatov also looks decent from what we saw of him at the European Championships for Ukraine but overall the side will struggle to match-up against Dortmund. They don't just have to worry about the German side's attacking players but also their strength in central defence where they have two of the best young centre backs in football with Subotic & Hummels, Hummels excelled for Germany in the Euros & is sought after by several of the elite sides in Europe. Shakhtar Donetsk needed to win in their home leg to progress in this one & they could find it tough going as their domestic season has only just started again after the long winter break.

Dortmund have already beaten Real Madrid & Manchester City at home & they are serious teams (even though City haven't got the hang of European football yet!) so to get odds of 8/13 about them winning in 90 minutes here looks a gift. It may be that the bookies reckon they won't go all out if they are drawing 0-0 or 1-1 as that will take them through but manager Jurgen Klopp will not want to see it that finely balanced & we can see a clear win in this one.

Manchester United vs Real Madrid

We've already tipped Man United to go qualify over Real Madrid & we're not about to abandon the English champions-elect now as they look to take their outstanding domestic form into this game & beat Madrid who sit just 3rd in the Spanish league.

(Xabi Alonso & Ronaldo are key players United need to stop for Madrid)

It's not easy to predict the starting lineup for United although it seems almost certain van Persie & Rooney will start plus Welbeck too after his important contribution in the first leg, it would also be good to see Kagawa given the start again after his hat-trick on Saturday, particularly bearing in mind the difficulty he caused in the Real defence first time around with his runs in behind even though he didn't have a great game. Regardless of who starts for United they will be set up with the express intention of stopping former Old Trafford hero Cristiano Ronaldo whilst also trying to create chance themselves & whilst that obviously isn't easy Ferguson is surely the manager most capable of finding a way to stop the Portuguese menace - we wouldn't be surprised to find out that Phil Jones' injury miraculously clears up in time or even that Wayne Rooney gets asked to do a number on Ronaldo!

United's achievements this year, in particularly in the last two to three months have been a team effort, van Persie of course has been excellent but it has been difficult to criticise any player, save for Antonio Valencia, in recent games as everyone has been dependable most of the time with individuals stepping up as needed. It's different approach from that of Madrid who still give the impression of 11 individuals & that's why they sit so far off Barcelona in the league as individuals can't gain the consistency of a true team of players. Real have certainly hit form recently with two wins against Barcelona (who are in their worst run of form in years) in the past week & they are probably capable of a better one-off performance than United but there's no guarantee of that on Tuesday. United have been outstanding for months having not lost a meaningful game since November, winning 14 of 16 league games (drawing away to good sides in Spurs & Swansea) & progressing in the FA Cup - regardless of what's said about English football being in decline, the English league as a whole is no less strong than La Liga after Barcelona are taken out of the equation.

Madrid will certainly be feeling good after those two Barcelona victories but they won't see themselves as the favourites that the bookies do, a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu was a victory for United & now they hold home advantage which is important in domestic games but a bigger advantage in European ones. Of course Real could do it, they've some outstanding players & Mesut Ozil could punish United if they allow him space like they did in the first leg but Madrid have already lost 5 times away in the league so taking United at a huge price of 23/10 to win looks the best option here. It is exceptionally rare to see Man United at that kind of price at home & it's time to start believing that they may be as good as their points total looks, with de Gea stepping up in goal & Evans responding superbly to being given a new long-term contract they have the steel at the back to support the sparkle at the front & can beat Mourinho's slightly flaky 'Galacticos'!

(Nani is a difference maker)

Talking of 'sparkle' we think that United's most 'twinkly-toed' Michael Jackson & Cristiano Ronaldo impersonator Nani may be the best bet for first goalscorer at 14/1, he has struggled with injury & form for most of the season but came off the bench in the first half against Reading last week & took the game by the scruff of the neck just like Ronaldo used to. This could be the game where Nani puts himself to another level, we all know he has the skills & if Ferguson puts him into this game he will relish it - it's a big 'if' so wait until the teams are announced then have a little punt.

Selections:
Borussia Dortmund to beat Shakhtar Donetsk at 8/13 (General)
Manchester United to beat Real Madrid at 23/10 (Bet365)
Nani to score first at 14/1 (Blue Square & 888Sport) - if he's in the starting XI

Champions League - United say bring it on Mourinho

Lovely, a little bit of the best club competition in the world this week as the Champions League returns & we've got previews of Tuesday's two games plus a fancy over two legs for the Real Madrid vs Manchester United tie.

Celtic vs Juventus

Celtic have already done magnificently well to qualify from their group containing European masters Barcelona  & they now take on another heavyweight in Juventus.

(Big man Fraser Forster will be hard to beat in Celtic's goal)

Neil Lennon's men have managed to get fired up for their Champions League games so far (they're by far & away the only big games they face nowadays thanks to Rangers demotion) & they were unbeaten at home in their group including when holding Barcelona to a nil-nil draw & they're unlikely to opt for an expansive approach here. Fraser Forster, their giant young English goalkeeper, has been in top form this season & he'll be protected by a decent defence including the outstanding left back Emilio Izaguirre. That solid base means Celtic are comfortable with teams coming on to them & they'll have to be as Juventus will have a lot of the ball thanks to Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Juve also have ex-Man United youngster Paul Pogba establishing himself as a player of real talent & potential & he'll provide the battling qualities they'll need here. Juventus however don't have a striker on their books who can strike fear into opposition defences like other top clubs in Europe do, with no one player having scored more than 10 this season & they've recently signed veteran Nicolas Anelka but he's not made an appearance yet & he may not play here.

We expect the Old Lady will come through over two legs but they are pragmatic & would not view a draw as a bad result as they'll have a lot of confidence that they can overpower the SPL side back in Turin, bearing in mind Celtic are very hard to beat at Celtic Park the 11/4 on offer about a draw is too big a price to miss.

Valencia vs Paris Saint-Germain

This has the potential to be an exciting tie with Valencia doing well in their qualifying group & having star striker Robert Soldado scoring freely this season whilst free-spending PSG have assembled a great attacking squad & have started to really leave their mark on their domestic league.

(Lucas Moura is maybe PSG's most exciting talent)

Valencia, like so many other Spanish clubs, remain in a precarious financial situation & they changed managers at the beginning of December with ex-Rafa Benitez assistant Mauricio Pellegrino taking up the head coach reins for the first time in his career. They play some nice attacking football with the option to be quie direct with Robert Soldado an excellent focal point & also play some more intricate stuff through the likes of the Brazilian Jonas & the technically sound Tino Costa. That attacking play can though sometimes come at a cost defensively & they've shipped 35 goals in La Liga so far, twice conceding 5 in a single game this season. Full backs Cissokho & Pereira are better going forwards than at defending whilst there is not a settled first choice keeper at the moment with Alves & Vicente Guaita fighting over the number one shirt.

PSG really are an interesting case, their lack of Champions League experience as a club should limit their potential according to established thinking yet they smashed their way through the group stage & have some incredibly exciting talents at the club (obviously not including David 'stunt signing' Beckham!). Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a fine footballer, & is now more appreciated here in the UK, & is ably supported in attack by Ezequiel Lavezzi who played so well for Napoli along with Edison Cavani last season. The player who most interests us though is the incredibly talented Brazilian youngster Lucas Moura who was bought before the start of the season but loaned straight back to Sao Paulo before joining up with the French club this January. Moura really is a unique talent as you'll see in the video above & this could be the game where he shows why he cost around 45 million euros.

The French league have certainly given PSG every chance of success in this one by scheduling their Ligue 1 game last Friday, just a couple of days after the international friendlies but meaning they've had a lot of time to prepare for this game. PSG are strong favourites to win over two legs so to see odds of 2/1+ for them to win here looks a little on the big side when you consider their big 15 points haul in their qualifying group, put your trust in them to put on a show of attacking brilliance & put this to bed before the return match.

Real Madrid vs Manchester United

This is a monster of a game with the two biggest club sides in the world facing off against each other & some of football's biggest personalities to boot, you'll see plenty of pictures of the Portugese pair of Jose Mourinho & the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo but this could just be the last we see of them in this season's competition...

(Cristiano Ronaldo would be the greatest in any other era - WHY MESSI??!!!)

In terms of man for man players Madrid would seemingly be able to play United off the park if reputations were all that mattered with the likes of Ronaldo, Ozil, Khedira, Alonso, Benzema, Higuain, Sergio Ramos, Modric & di Maria but it takes more than names & individuals to make a great team & Real are not quite that. There are some serious internal issues at Madrid with apparent divisions between the large Portugese contingent & the Spanish players with reports that Sergio Ramos & popular keeper Ilker Casillas had issued a warning to the club president that players would be looking to leave in the Summer if Mourinho wasn't removed. It's all led to Real being far off the pace in the league & although they can of course come up with ace performances (they should be able to with that list of talent) they have at times looked off the pace & sloppy & were just dreadful at Granada last week when losing 1-0 to a Ronaldo on goal. Madrid are without top keeper Casillas through injury for both games & that's a worry when backup Antonio Adan has only played for them 7 times & is coming up against a United strikeforce that have the highest chance conversion rate in the Premier League.

(Rafael da Silva has been in fine form this season, especially in recent games)

United are all about the team & although they clearly have outstanding individuals they are arguably greater than the sum of their parts & Ferguson continues to prove he's a shrewd tactical manager - maybe something he doesn't get credited for as much as his other skills. The key in this game is to stop Cristiano Ronaldo & don't be surprised to see someone do a man marking job but there's reason to believe he could have troubles anyway as Rafael is turning into a fine player, adding in the defensive skills & decision making to complement his tremendous attacking threat. Gary Neville giving him Sky Sports' man of the match award this Sunday was a nice touch & the ex-United right back will have done so with one eye on giving him added confidence for this game. With van Persie up front the Red Devils always pose a potent threat & Wayne Rooney & the emerging Shinji Kagawa can expose any chinks in the Madrid defence - they definitely exist. At the other end of the pitch Nemanja Vidic is getting back to full fitness & making a big difference in the heart of the defence whilst David de Gea is also improving, his shot stopping skills have never been in doubt & that could be decisive with Ronaldo's shoot on sight policy.

You'll read & hear a lot about Real being a long way off Barcelona in the league & looking very unlikely to catch them so they'll be super pumped for this Champions League game but that's too much of trying to turn a negative into a positive - they're way behind because of their inconsistency & the fact they aren't as good as the sum of their parts. We've noted previously that United are on for an enormous points haul in the league & their play has been underestimated this season, with the 2nd leg of this tie at Old Trafford that's a significant advantage & we genuinely believe they should be odds on to qualify - they aren't so instead take great odds of 6/4 for Ferguson's men to go through to the quarter finals. You likely won't get another chance to back Robin van Persie to score 1st at odds as big as 7/1 all season so take them, he's United's far likeliest scorer as Rooney will drop off the front because his work rate further back is too useful in these big European games.

Selections:
Celtic & Juventus to draw at 11/4 (Stan James)
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Valencia at 11/5 (BetVictor, Stan James & William Hill)
Manchester United to qualify over Real Madrid at 6/4 (Coral)
Robin van Persie to score first at 7/1 (Various)

Real to show City what being Elite in Europe is all about

The Champions League begins again this Tuesday & is undoubtedly the premier club competition in the world, we're taking a look at the glamorous Real Madrid vs Man City tie plus have a pick from the lowest tier of English professional football as we seek the value high & low.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Manchester City embark on their second season in the Champions League after disappointing last year & going out at the group stage & in their opener they face maybe the toughest fixture in Europe when taking on Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. Mancini will almost certainly be sending his side out with the intention of nicking a draw but that could prove some way beyond them if Madrid can pick themselves up after a very poor start to their league season.

(Will Manchester City be able to cope with the skills of Angel Di Maria?)

Mourinho has publicly questioned his players spirit, suggesting they've only really got up for their Spanish Super Cup games with arch rivals Barcelona so far & they slumped to defeat at Sevilla at the weekend. That Sevilla game could prove a bit of a wake up call though & they have players who tend to be able to rise to the occasion & this is the greatest club competition in the world. Real Madrid won all of their home games in the competition last year & only went out in the semis by penalties, Man City meanwhile struggled on their travels & only picked up a win in their group when taking on the woeful Villareal who ended up without a single point. It takes a while to learn how to play in Europe & City are taking their first tentative steps, of course they weren't helped last year with the Carlos Tevez situation & that is at least seemingly behind them plus Sergio Aguero looks to coming back to full fitness offering them outstanding striking options.

Real do have the pedigree though & the weapons to hurt City, if the English side are potentially vulnerable it would be down the flanks & Cristiano Ronaldo will look to get at Zabaleta & Di Maria will be all over Gael Clichy down the right hand side. They'll have Gonzalo Higuain in the middle & he's looked pretty hot so far this season, taking advantage of Benzema's continuing struggles after a poor Euro 2012 for France. As well as being able to do the pretty stuff Madrid aren't afraid to get physical & they could need to here if they are to stop the rampaging Yaya Toure. We just feel that Madrid are a bit of value at odds of 3/4 at home as they'll look to win this whereas Mancini's caution & City's inexperience could mean they don't offer enough going forward to relieve pressure from defence.

Bradford City vs Morecambe

(James Hanson has 4 goals in all competitions this season)

In League Two Bradford City entertain Morecambe at Valley Parade, after six games each Bradford are in 7th place with 10 points whilst Morecambe are a couple of points back & in 13th. The Bantams have had their struggles on the road so far but have a perfect record in front of their own fans having comprehensively beaten Barnet & AFC Wimbledon (7-0 on aggregate) & also gaining a good 1-0 victory over 3rd place Fleetwood Town. Striking trio James Hanson, summer signing Alan Connell & rising star Nahki Wells have already scored seven league goals between them & will be relishing the prospect of facing a Morecambe defence which has conceded nine goals in six league matches. Morecambe have had a thoroughly mixed start so far with two wins, two draws & two defeats. Most recently Morecambe took 4-0 derby hammering from Fleetwood & that was followed by a dire 0-0 draw against Aldershot on Saturday where they failed to register a single shot on target. Bradford strikers can do the business against an average Morecambe side & bag the three points at the reasonable odds of 5/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Real Madrid to beat Manchester City at 3/4 (BetVictor)
Bradford City to beat Morecambe at 5/6 (Coral)

European Giants clash in the Allianz Arena

We're back with selections from a couple of great games on Tuesday - it was a nearly weekend for us as Everton took the lead v Liverpool only to throw it away & Crewe & Torquay only getting draws when deserving better in League Two. Add to those results Cappa Bleu finishing like a train in the Grand National when clearly being underestimated & given too much to do by Paul Moloney & it seemed like we were always destined to be nearly men, Chelsea did the business in the FA Cup though thanks to a little refereeing help & things could be on the upturn on the betting front here!

(Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - could Mario Gomez claim the match ball?)

The two Champions League semi finals look really good affairs & to kick off we see two of the most exciting teams in the world face off in Germany as Bayern Munich host Real Madrid in the Allianz Arena as they seek to progress to the final being held in their own stadium. Both sides can lay claim to having just about the best attacking talent around with Bayern having Ribery, Gomes & Robben all capable of wreaking havoc on opposition defences & Real Madrid being able to pair the incredible Cristiano Ronaldo with the powerful & skillful beasts that are Benzema & Higuain. Both sides have reached this stage with the minimum of fuss really, the one time Bayern were in a bother after trailing 1-0 from the first leg v Basle they came out & stuck 7 past the helpless Swiss side! Bayern's chances of league success have faded but that means they're able to put absolutley everything into this game & showed that by resting a few players at the weekend including captain Philip Lahm, they'll be desperate to get a win here so that they have a lead to take to the Bernabeu, that should mean we see their usual attacking ethos in operation & nobody seems to have found a way of stopping Mario Gomes as of yet. Mourinho is nothing if not pragmatic & he may put out a more defensively minded team than usual, with Germany international Sami Khedira acting as a shield to his defence, that shouldn't take away Madrid's goal threat though as Ronaldo has so much quality he scores in near enough every game regardless of tactics. Even is Real do adopt a more defensive strategy than usual it shouldn't be anything too extreme & we can see goals in this one with 5/6 about over 2.5 being a very juicy price. For an extra bet at what could be a big price take Mario Gomez to bag the first goal of the game at 11/2, or back him at 9/2 with Betfred & take advantage of their offer where they'll double the odds if you back a player & he scores again after opening the scoring & treble it if he knocks in a hatrick.

(Midfielder Ben Marshall has been in the goals in recent weeks with 2 in his last 3 games)

In the Championship, Leicester City host Burnley at the King Power Stadium. Leicester are 9th & Burnley are two places below in 11th so if either side has any ambition of making the play-off places this is a must win fixture. Leicester are in decent form with four wins & two draws in their last eight league matches but they were defeated away at Millwall last weekend, the hostile atomosphere at the New Den means it's always a tough place to go though. However it's the Foxes home form that stands out with 11 victories so far & they are on a current unbeaten run of seven matches, winning five of these matches with the most impressive ones coming against play-off position teams of Birmingham City & Cardiff City. Burnley's league form is mixed but they are unbeaten in their last three with two victories over Doncaster Rovers & Brighton & Hove Albion. Away from home this season Burnley have been defeated ten times out 21 matches & only managed five clean sheets, they've lost four of their last seven away games & we don't expect them to put up too much resistance here. Leicester City can win on their own patch at the best price of 8/11.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Bayern Munich v Real Madrid at 5/6 (BetVictor & 32Red)
Mario Gomez to score first at 11/2 (BetVictor & William Hill - or Betfred & their double delight/hatrick heaven offer at 9/2)
Leicester City to beat Burnley at 8/11 (general)

The double on over 2.5 goals & Leicester pays £31.67 to a £10 stake