New Year's Eve Football - North East side can win battle of the Boros

It's the last day of 2011 so we're trying to win big & give us happy memories of the year, our best football bets for the day are below & as usual we've looked through the leagues to find the best bets available. As ever you can follow us on Twitter (there's a follow button at the top of the page) so please do & join in the conversation.

(After beating Sheffield Wednesday can Walsall stretch their unbeaten run to five games?)

In League One Walsall host Rochdale at the Bescot Stadium, the game represents an early relegation six pointer with Walsall in 18th & one point of the relegation places whilst Rochdale are 23rd & two points off safety. Walsall will be full of confidence after beating high flyers Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 with goals in injury time through Claude Gnakpa & Emmanuele Smith on Boxing Day. They are now unbeaten in four league games, including a draw with league leaders Charlton, as they look to climb the table & put daylight between themselves & the relegation places. At home their form is decent with three wins & four draws in their 12 matches which gives them a points haul of a mid table side. Visitors Rochdale have struggled all season & have suffered five defeats in their last eight league matches. Their away form reads seven defeats, one draw & two victories in their ten league games & they have only kept one clean sheet. Walsall can prove too strong for a struggling Rochdale outfit at the best price of 11/8 with Victor Chandler.

(Is Tony Mowbray leading Middlesbrough back to the Premiership?)

In the Championship, Middlesbrough entertain Peterborough United at the Riverside. Middlesbrough are fighting for automatic promotion with Southampton & West Ham whilst Peterborough are sitting comfortably in mid table. Boro are having a fantastic December with four wins from four & have beaten fellow play-off teams Cardiff City & Hull City in their last two. Their home record is impressive with only one defeat in 12 matches but at the start of the season they struggled to put sides away which resulted in a number of drawn matches. They seem to have resolved this issue of late & have won their last two home matches & three of their last five. They welcome a Peterborough side which have an average record on the road with six defeats, three draws & three wins in their 12 league games. They are a entertaining side for the neutral but have conceded at least one goal in 92% of their away matches & against a Boro side who have a formidable defensive record of only 9 goals conceded at home (50% of home matches resulting in clean sheets) they are going to give themselves a mount to climb if these trends continue. We feel that Middlesbrough are an accumulator banker this weekend & will comfortably beat Peterborough at the best price of 3/4 with Boylesports.

(Aston Villa's star player against Chelsea?)

Finally we come to Chelsea taking on Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge where the London outfit are a warm order to beat Alex McCleish's men even though they've drawn their last 3 games (all 1-1) & have won just 4 of their last 10 league games. Villa are hardly in splendid form as they've lost 4 of their last 7 games but those losses were to Spurs, Man United, Arsenal & Liverpool so little disgrace there, they drew with Stoke last time out but got a clean sheet in the process which will give a much needed boost to their defence that have struggled recently at set pieces. They have struggled for goals all year but it's become even more difficult with injuries to Bent & Agbonlahor, the latter is definitely fit for this one & Bent may well be as well but Emile Heskey is ruled out. Even if Bent does come back Villa are likely to set out with containment of Chelsea in mind & that could frustrate the Blues even with their creator extraordinaire Juan Mata on the pitch. Put simply Chelsea don't warrant being 1/3 favourites & although they are the likely winners those odds seem false & we'd much rather be a layer than a backer as Villa try to park the team bus, we suggest laying Chelsea at 1.32 & shorter.

Selections:
Walsall to beat Rochdale at 11/8 (Victor Chandler)
Middlesbrough to beat Peterborough at 3/4 (Boylesports)
The above double pays over 3/1
Lay Chelsea to beat Aston Villa at 1.32 & shorter

Liverpool to be frustrated by travelling Toon Army

To get a full weekend of fixtures across the leagues started we see two of the best supported & storied clubs in the country take each other on at Anfield as Liverpool host Newcastle United. The clubs are much closer together in the league than many would have expected at the start of the season as Newcastle sit one place off of the Reds in 7th & trailing them by just a point with 30 so far. It's a huge game for Liverpool as they have won just 3 of their 9 home games so far & will be desperate to improve, they've been creating chances but failing to convert them, if they win they'll move level on points with 4th placed Chelsea. Newcastle meanwhile will be looking for at least a point in order to consolidate their position in the top half of the table, they also need to be capitalising on all of their games before star striker Demba Ba heads off to the African Cup of Nations.

 (Andy Carroll celebrating that rarest of things - a goal whilst in a Liverpool shirt)

Liverpool are unbeaten at Anfield this season with three wins & six draws in their nine league games but have had too many draws at home to inferior opposition in terms of Norwich, Swansea, Sunderland and on Boxing Day to Blackburn, even the draw with Man United can't be considered a good result as United were listless that day. Their chief problem has been lack of goals with only two of those 9 home games resulting in them scoring more than once & that was against Bolton (3-1) & Wolves (2-1), clearly they are excellent at the back conceding the joint lowest amount of goals in the league & are reaping the benefits of dropping the long in the tooth, but excellent servant, Jamie Carragher. On the plus side they have only failed to find the net at home once but too often only score the once & have had five 1-1 draws. It will be even more difficult for them here as they are without suspended Luis Suarez who's serving a one match ban for his obscene gesture to the Fulham fans, he is undoubtedly their star offensive player & is involved in creating many of their chances. Suarez missing should mean that £35m striker Andy Carroll should start against his former club, with just 3 goals in 19 appearances this year he's really struggling & will be striving for a goal in this one, Liverpool have been playing to his strengths a bit more in recent weeks with crosses from out wide & he's been unfortunate to come up against some keepers in top form but he may just be a little over eager in this one. Their other signing from Newcastle, Jose Enrique has been excellent meanwhile & he'll help to keep the Newcastle forward players in check.

(Fabricio Collocini (tackling) - a player of the year contender?)

Newcastle really impressed on the defensive side of the game early in the season, they only conceded more than once on one occasion in their first 11 games of the year & in our estimation Fabricio Coloccini deserves to be spoken of as a player of the year contender. It was always contended that Newcastle's great early run would come to an end & sure enough after those first 11 games they then lost 4 & drew 2 in their next 6 - there were some tough games there though & they also had some defensive injury problems with Coloccini & Steven Taylor both sitting out games, Taylor is still out for this one (a season ending ruptured achilles tendon) but he's very much the junior partner versus his Argentinian captain. If you took away Demba Ba's goals Newcastle would have scored just 11 times in the league with only Leon Best (with a hattrick) & Ryan Taylor (2 goals) having scored more than once this season, Ba took a knock on the knee in the win against Bolton but should be fit here, he'll cause problems for Liverpool but at least Agger & Skrtel will know he's pretty much all they have to worry about & they have the physical attributes to be able to deal with him better than most. The Magpies may well set up with just Ba up front & Hatem Ben Arfa coming into the lineup to give them a bit more in midfield against Liverpool's robust centre, it should mean that this is a tight one & we're not expecting it to be a great game like the 4-3 games played out close to 15 years ago.

Only 4 of Liverpool's 18 games have gone over 2.5 goals & with their misfiring strikers plus Coloccini back & fit, backed up by the outstanding Tim Krul, this looks like a game to back under 2.5 goals at odds of 10/11. It looks like being yet another frustrating game for Liverpool's players & supporters & they make little appeal at odds of 4/7 to win, a sneaky bet on no goalscorer at juicy odds 11/1 is worth a small punt also.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (Various)
No goalscorer at 11/1 (Various)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 9

After week 7 our followers were making a £16.76 loss after another round of disappointing picks, could they improve in week 8? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@Con_27	Man Utd, Man City, Reading and Southampton	Only Man City failed to win after a bore 0-0 against West Brom LOSER
@MilesFFC	Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65 in Bolton vs Newcastle	Newcastle ran out comfortable winners 2-0 LOSER
@MilesFFC	Over 3.5 goals @ 2.62 in Bolton vs Newcastle	Newcastle ran out comfortable winners 2-0 LOSER
@MilesFFC	Newcastle outright at 2.8 vs Bolton	Newcastle ran out comfortable winners 2-0 WINNER
@MilesFFC	Sunderland DNB @ 1.72 vs Everton	A shocking penalty decision for Everton resulted in a 1-1 draw NO BET
@MilesFFC	Under 2.5 goals at 1.66 in Sunderland vs Everton	A shocking penalty decision for Everton resulted in a 1-1 draw WINNER
@MilesFFC	Man City outright @ 1.5 vs West Brom	West Brom held leader Man City to a 0-0 draw LOSER
@MilesFFC	Man City HT/FT @ 2.1 vs West Brom	West Brom held leader Man City to a 0-0 draw LOSER
@MilesFFC	Man United -2 @ 1.825 vs Wigan	Man Utd hammered Wigan 5-0 with a Berbatov hat-trick WINNER
@MilesFFC	Swansea to beat QPR @ evens	1-1 after a second half equaliser for QPR LOSER
@MilesFFC	Over 2.5 goals in Norwich vs Spurs @ 1.65	A Gareth Bale brace gave Spurs a 2-0 victory LOSER
@rigger60	Chelsea to beat Fulham 3-1	This London Derby finished all square at 1-1 LOSER

 After only a few winners this week our followers’ current loss increased to -£21.47, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the New Year Period of the 31^st to the 1^st January:

@Con_27 selects a double of Tottenham & Norwich-Fulham draw at 4.7/1 Paddys. Spurs travel to Swansea and are best price of 8/11 with Paddy Power.

@gray67lufc picks one from each division Fulham 7/4, Blackpool 11/4, MK Dons 6/4 and Bradford 2/1. The above accumulator pays over 76/1.

@gray67lufc also selects his best bet for the weekend...Bournemouth 7/4 away to win at Yeovil.

@LeeHooper1 weekend bet of Rooney, Van Persie and Balotelli all to score anytime. Rooney to score against Blackburn at 4/6 (Coral), Van Persie to score at home to QPR at 8/15 (Betfred) & Balotelli to score away to Sunderland at 6/5 (Bet365). The treble pays roughly 9/2.

@rigger60 the Chelsea fan fancies over 3.5 goals in the Man Utd vs Blackburn & Swansea win. Over 3.5 goals is available at 10/11 in the United games & Swansea are the best price of 47/10 to win. This double pays just under 10/11.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

PDC World Darts Championship - King to take the Crown?

The King is dead, long live the King! Phil 'The Power' Taylor's shock loss to Dave Chisnall looks to have blown this year's championship wide open, we didn't have a preview before that game as Taylor was looking in imperious form during the build up & was difficult to oppose, yet still difficult to back with the short odds on offer. Now that Taylor has exited the competition & the market seems to be shaping up we've picked out our best bets for the tournament by considering the remaining players potential, form, temperament & the all-important draw. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney where you can get notified of our latest blogs & we talk about sports & betting in general, it's very good fun & we're always delighted when you tell your friends about us if you like what you see!

(Dave Chisnall beat Phil Taylor but could that be draining?)

We'll start off with Taylor's conqueror Dave Chisnall as according to the betting markets he's become a genuine contender following that impressive 4-1 shock win against the tournament favourite & he's now priced up at a best price of 9/1. Chisnall also looked good in his first round game where he beat Mark Dudbridge without dropping a set & he is a heavy scorer in general although his doubles aren't usually up to the standard that he has shown so far in this tournament. This is his 1st year on the PDC tour & he's performed ok but winning this would be an insane step up from his previous level of performance, his best finish in a 'big' tournament this year was getting to the quarter finals of the UK Open. It might be that his performance against Taylor spurs him on but we've seen many a time what beating Taylor does to a man as the effort & emotion affects their very next game. Taylor was clearly nowhere near his best there either & whilst Chisnall was very good he didn't need to be incredible to win, the current odds on offer are clearly an overreaction & we'd advise to avoid.

As a 3 time world champion John Part has to be considered a live outsider & at odds of 40/1 there are certainly worse bets out there, he doesn't seem to get massive averages too often (he's on 90.32 for the tournament) but is one of the players capable of getting up over 100 when he's on his game. We think he's every chance of beating Kevin Painter in the next round even though he's a slight outsider & that would likely put him up against James Wade, that would be a lot tougher but he's only dropped one set so far & is one of the few who has no questions at all about his temperament.

(Taunton's Justin Pipe can win the 3rd quarter of the championships)

Another 'JP' Justin Pipe is our hometown player & looking to do Taunton proud in the championship, he's really come to prominence in the 2nd half of this year with 3 players championship wins coming in the space of just about a month in October & November. He's got some class about him as he's had a 9 darter this year & out gritted Phil Taylor for the first of his championship wins, it won't be easy here in front of the huge crowds & cameras but he's already shown he can handle it by coming from 2 sets down against Wes Newton to win his 2nd round match. We don't have Terry Jenkins as a 1/2 favourite to win their 3rd round match & there's value in backing Justin in that one, the best value however is for Pipe to win the 3rd quarter at overpriced odds of 7/1 with Bet365, there are only 4 left in the quarter, we think he can beat Jenkins & the big favourite Adrian Lewis is not someone we'd ever want to trust our money on. At odds of 40/1 for the title we're tempted but the each way is only on offer for the 1st two so we'll be keeping our noses dry.

We've already said we don't fancy last year's winner Adrian Lewis to win his quarter of the draw & that means we also don't like the odds of 5/1 for him to follow up overall. He's won just once since the 2011 Championship & that was back in March, he did manage a couple of finals in November but overall we can't see him hitting the jackpot this time around.

(James 'The Machine' Wade looks to have the easiest of quarters & is a genuine threat to all)

The player to beat down in the bottom half of the draw looks to be James Wade, he knows how to win, has dropped just one set in his two games so far & should progress with the minimum of fuss against Steve Farmer in his next game (he's 1/9 to win). If he goes through he'll be up against Painter or Part & would be a heavy favourite to win against either, they wouldn't be easy prey but he should do it & odds of 8/15 to win the 4th quarter of the draw are pretty generous & should be taken for a quick profit. Best odds of 5/1 with Skybet for the title & 13/8 to reach the final are just about on the money too & we won't put anyone off who wants to take those bets - he's a real live contender now that Taylor's gone.

Back to the top half of the draw & we find the new favourite Gary Anderson & when he's on form he's one of the scariest players around, finding the treble 20 with alarming regularity, he's also a proven winner as shown by his 8 tournament wins since his loss in the final last year. Back in September he averaged a record 123.5 in a win against Mark Dudbridge which shows just how formidable he can be, he is however lucky to be in the tournament after just scraping through in the 1st round. The big question surrounding Gary is whether he can do it on the biggest stage, of 5 major finals he's reached he's won just one but that was the Premier League & he did avenge his World Championship defeat by beating Lewis in that one. It becomes a little tiresome to question Anderson's 'bottle' (if that's the right word) but there's still something telling us not to get on at odds of 7/2.

Paul Nicholson was ruthless in taking apart Alan Tabern in his 2nd round match & has had his best finishes in 5 of the PDC premier events in 2011 showing he must be brimming with confidence, his brash style doesn't endear himself to the crowd but it can help him have a psychological edge over opponents. We don't think he's quite spectacular enough to score the win here & we think Sportingbet are sensible by being best priced about him with odds of 12/1 but he should provide plenty of entertainment for however long he's about.

Simon 'The Wizard' Whitlock has the highest average overall in the tournament so far at 105.11 with that coming courtesy of his win against Dennis Smith in the 1st round where he dropped just one leg, he's one of the major players tending to perform to a high level in the biggest tournaments. The worry here is that he hasn't reached a final all year, he's done pretty well in terms of semi finals & quarter finals but you need a real winning mentality to get this one & 2010's finalist doesn't look value at 9/1 even with Taylor gone.

(Not everyone's cup of tea but Mervyn King has a live chance at 25/1 for outright glory)

The players in the top half of the draw where Taylor was situated before his loss will surely feel a little psychological boost because of that, there is also the bonus for everyone apart from Chisnall, not just that he's out but that they won't have had to be the ones to have knocked him out & therefore have the weight of expectation on their shoulders. That could benefit our fancy at a big price Mervyn King who has already reached two world championship finals in the BDO version as well as the semi final of this in the 2009 tournament. He tends to hit consistently high averages & shouldn't let anyone boss him in a game, we were very taken by his 1st round win where he won every leg & averaged 98.02 looking very calm & confident, he will almost certainly beat Michael van Gerwen in his 2nd round match on Wednesday afternoon & then will face Whitlock or Steve Beaton, he won't be having sleepless nights over either. Gary Anderson looks his biggest stumbling block but the heat that King generates from the crowd could be more likely to negatively impact on Gary than him & if he could get to the semi he may even be in the unlikely position of being crowd favourite if taking on Paul Nicholson. Mervyn King is a big price & it won't be easy but if the going gets tough we think he could tough it out best of all & odds of 25/1 mean our money is on The King.

Selections:
Mervyn King to win the PDC World Darts Championship each way at 25/1 (general)
Justin Pipe to win 3rd quarter at 7/1 (Bet365)
James Wade to win 4th quarter at 8/15 (Bet365)

Northern De-lights

The festive period is in full swing as Boxing Day football allows those will have overindulged on the big day to sit back, relax & enjoy a number of cracking matches. As usual we've looked through the leagues for the best bets available by searching through the stats & form & think we've found a few beauties this time around. Follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney to join in with the discussions & keep up to date with our latest posts.

(Robert Snodgrass has been a constant menace to Championship defences this season)

In the Championship, Derby County host Leeds United at Pride Park. The Rams after an impressive start to the season have fallen down the table in recent months thanks to only two wins in their last 14 league matches; including a run of five straight defeats in a row last month. Their home form this season reads five wins out of eleven matches but it's worth noting that all of these were against sides placed between 14th - 23rd in the league & three of them were in the first couple of months. They haven't kept a clean sheet in the league since September & have only scored six goals in last eight league games. Leeds are currently sat in the last play-off place & are reasonable form with four wins, one draw & three defeats in their last eight league matches. Their away form is in the top 3 of the division with five wins in their 11 games. They are also top scores away from home with 21 goals & have scored at least one goal in 91% of these. They have goal threat from all over the pitch but special mentions to Ross McCormack & Robert Snodgrass who have scored 18 goals between them this season. We feel good travellers Leeds Utd will outscore an average Derby County side & come away with the three points at the tasty price of 8/5 with Ladbrokes.

(Ched Evans has nine goals in his last eight matches - will he be celebrating again?)

On the 27th, live on Skysports, Sheffield United entertain Notts County at Bramall Lane. The Blades sit in 3rd place just below bitter rivals Wednesday whilst Notts County are mid table chasing a play-off place. United's current form is excellent with four league wins in a row & only one defeat in their last ten. Their home record this season reads seven wins, two draws & two defeats against top sides Huddersfield & Charlton in their 11 games. They have scored 38 league goals so far; thanks mainly to in form Ched Evans who has netted eight times & a 13 in all competitions. Visitors Notts County have only one victory in their last eight league games & have lost their last two against Yeovil & Leyton Orient. Whilst their home form is very good, they do struggle on the road with six defeats in their 11 league games which has seen them conceded 18 goals & at least one goal in each of their last nine matches. We feel that Sheffield United will outclass Notts County in their backyard as they look to jump into the automatic places at the best price of 5/6 with Victor Chandler.

Our final selection comes from the Premiership with Martin O'Neill's Sunderland up against Everton at the Stadium of Light. We are expecting a low scoring affair as both sides have struggled all season with only 38 goals between them in their 17 games; Sunderland have 12 in eight home games & Everton have just 8 in seven away games. A typical O'Neill side displays great togetherness, team spirit & are notoriosly sound defensively. All the early signs indicate Sunderland are heading in the right direction & he also seems to have installed confidence in attacking duo Nicklas Bendtner & Stephane Sessegnon. We are keen on Sunderland keeping up their momentum & beating goal shy Everton 2-0 at the odds of 11/1 with William Hill or Coral.

Selections:

Leeds Utd to beat Derby County at 8/5 (Ladbrokes)
Sheffield United to beat Notts County at 5/6 (Victor Chandler)
The above double pays 3.77/1

Sunderland to beat Everton 2-0 at odds of 11/1 (William Hill/Coral)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 8

After week 6 our followers were making a £16.11 loss after another round of disappointing picks, could improve in week 7? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@Jugador1984	Cardiff to beat Middlesbrough	Despite taking a 2-1 lead, Boro stormed back with a 3-2 victory LOSER
@WoodwardSamuel	Tottenham, Chelsea, Man Utd all (-1) treble	Only Man Utd managed to win their game by -1 at QPR LOSER
@Con_27	Fulham, Peterborough & Borussia Dortmund all to win	All three sides won their league games at a 3.4/1 treble (at Paddy Power) WINNER
@gray67lufc	Swansea DNB, Cardiff, Brentford & Torquay	Swans drew at Newcastle so no bet & treble failed with no winners LOSER
@gray67lufc	Brentford bt Bury, Bournemouth bt Sheff Utd & Colchester bt Hartlepool	Only Colchester managed a victory 1-0 at Hartlepool LOSER
@Robleys_bets	Newcastle, Peterborough and Carlisle	Peterborough won 1-0 but Newcastle & Carlisle could only muster draws LOSER
@Brian_L_	Doubles Man Utd & Chelsea, Man City & Bor Dortmund, Burton & Charlton.	Man City & Bor Dortmund double wins at 1.8/1 TWO LOSERS ONE WINNER
@kamikazekamai	Osasuna at home to Villarreal	Osasuna come from behind to win 2-1 @ 23/20 WINNER

After a few good winners this week our followers’ current loss only slightly increased to £16.76, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the Christmas period of the 26 ^th /  27 ^th  December:

@Con_27 selects a fourfold of Man Utd, Man City, Reading and Southampton, 3.4/1 paddys. Man Utd host Wigan, Man City travel to West Brom, Reading entertain Brighton and table toppers Southampton are at home to Crystal Palace.

@MilesFFC has gone crazy with selections in six premier league games. Firstly, in Bolton vs Newcastle with over 2.5 goals @ 1.65, over 3.5 goals @ 2.62 & Newcastle outright at 2.8.

@MilesFFC selections in the Sunderland vs Everton game are Sunderland DNB @ 1.72 & under 2.5 goals at 1.66.

@MilesFFC again picks in a potential cracker between West Brom & leaders Man City with Man City outright @ 1.5 & Man City HT/FT @ 2.1.

@MilesFFC final three selections are Man United -2 @ 1.825, Swansea to beat QPR @ evens & over 2.5 goals in Norwich vs Spurs @ 1.65. A treble on these would pay roughly 5/1.

@Ryan_Adams93 has a double of #nufc and #safc both to draw #efc #bwfc. The draw between Bolton vs Newcastle & Sunderland vs Everton are both @ 12/5. The double pays over 10/1.

 @rigger60 reckons that improving Chelsea will thump Fulham 3-1 on Boxing Day. A 3-1 scoreline is 11/1 with Coral & William Hill.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bets.

Long Run to roar back to his best in King George

Hopefully everyone will have filled their bellies on Christmas Day meaning that Boxing Day is for filling your wallets & there is some outstanding racing at Kempton including the King George where young upstart & last year's winner Long Run takes on old master & 4 time winner Kauto Star. We've got a preview of the 3 Grade 1's & they are all great races on their own merits but will also serve as key Cheltenham Festival indicators - our best bets are below.

 (Overturn beat Binocular at Newcastle & can do it again at Kempton)

Kicking off the top class action is the Feltham Novices' Chase where two of last year's top staying hurdlers try to make the step up to genuine 3 mile chase contenders. Bob's Worth was the best of the novice staying hurdlers & Nicky Henderson's charge finished off with an impressive win in the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles at Cheltenham in March, he's raced just the once over fences winning a 4 runner affair at Newbury, beating Cue Card by a short head. That win was over 2m 4f & this distance will suit Bob's Worth better as he looked to have stamina in abundance when winning at the Festival, there has to be worries around his jumping though as there were two blunders at Newbury & there won't be room for error here with a brisk pace likely. Chief rival & our fancy, David Pipe's Grands Crus was only outshone in the staying hurdle division by the incomparable Big Bucks & was streets ahead of the rest of his rivals. Grands Crus travels like a dream which is key to doing well here at Kempton & has looked like a natural jumper so far especially last time at Newbury where his jumping got slicker the faster they went, we haven't completely bought into the hype surrounding him & if Bob's Worth can improve his jumping there could be an upset - we don't see that being here though & Grands Crus to win at 11/8 can get our betting off to a good start. We certainly can't see any of the horses outside of the front two in the market really contending, Silvinacio Conti is useful but looks weighted down by his form finishing a little way behind Cue Card on his chase debut & then winning a very weak Grade 2 at Wincanton where 2 opponents fell & another 2 pulled up out of the 6 runners.

(Grands Crus can keep getting better over fences & take the Feltham)

In the Christmas Hurdle we're less than keen on the chances of last year's winner & former Champion hurdler Binocular, clearly he's brilliant on his day but has flattered to deceive on too many occasions now & was well beaten by Overturn last time out in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Overturn had been making hay against weaker opposition, galloping them into the ground before coming up against the top class Grandouet last time, we were most impressed by that display & although he was beaten by Binocular in this race last time McCain's charge looks to have grown into a stronger horse since then. There's an awful lot of buzz about Paul Nicholls' Rock On Ruby but although it has some great form, including finishing close up behind Bob's Worth & then First Lieutenant in two Cheltenham races but those were both over half a mile further & he could lack the toe needed against these two mile specialists. At odds of 5/2 it's worth backing Overturn to keep up his good form & bag his biggest win so far.

 (Reigning champion Long Run can keep his crown in the King George VI Chase)

 

The big one today is undoubtedly the King George VI Chase with Kauto Star & Long Run being taken on by Master Minded stepping up to the distance & Diamond Harry & Captain Chris trying to get to the top table of staying chasers. Master Minded is a big favourite here & when jumping fluently over two miles is one of the most exciting sights in racing but the brilliant form that saw him win the Champion Chase in outstanding style in 2008 & 09 is just a memory now, he;s still very high class but there's not an awful lot to suggest this step up will bring about a rejuvenation & at current odds Master Minded is not a betting proposition. Of the horses trying to make the step up we're keener on Captain Chris than Diamond Harry, the latter was out for the whole of last season after winning the Hennessy & although an excellent horse it's difficult to gauge how just how good & he was well beaten by the two principals in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Captain Chris won the Arkle at Cheltenham & proved that form was right when following up at Punchestown, he jumped poorly at Exeter & ended up unseating Richard Johnson at the last when holding every chance even with the suspect jumping through the race, he's got two miler speed but has already won over 4 furlongs further & looks like the step up could suit, with 1/4 odds available he's worth an each way bet at 7/1 but isn't our pick.

Kauto Star is an undoubted great & won this race 4 times in a row between 2006 & 2009 as well as the Gold Cup in 2007 & 2009, there was frivolous talk that retirement was on the cards if he didn't shine in the Betfair Chase but he came back with a vengance, jumping & travelling like a dream & beating Long Run fair & square. It blew this matchup wide open as Long Run looked to have taken up the mantle with his breathtaking victories in this & the Gold Cup, Kauto's win was his first in a year with te one before being at Down Royal in November 2010 so there are still questions to be answered. Long Run was talked of as a Gold cup horse from the moment he was brought across from France & more than justified that confidence last year, there's still room for improvement as he's a baby at just 6 years old & the youngest horse in the race & with Nicky Henderson insisting he wasn't fully wound up for Haydock can be expected to strip much fitter here. Kauto Star is 12 years old now & is clearly still right there at the top of the chasing tree but it seems a lot to ask to repeat his Haydock performance & whilst it wouldn't be the greatest shock to see him win we're staying with his half his age rival Long Run & he can win in style at odds of 11/8.

Selections:
Kempton 2.00 - Grands Crus to win at 11/8 (various)
Kempton 2.35 - Overturn to win at 5/2 (Coral)
Kempton 3.10 - Long Run to win at 11/8 (general)