Watford's Hornets possess more sting than Brentford's Bees

Last week we set out our fancies for Championship success over the course of the season & for Twitter followers selected Peterborough as our bet of the weekend (successful at 11/10) but this week we're back with our first proper blog of the season & we've trawled the games & the stats to bring you some value tips.

Watford vs Bournemouth

We reckon that this is the game to watch this weekend with last season's highest scorers in the Championship, Watford, playing host to last year's top goal-getters from League One as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth roll into town.

(Watford's Almen Abdi shows off his smooth technique)

The two teams are some of the more interesting clubs around, both on & off the pitch, with Watford's strong ties to Italy & there being talk of potentially very substantial sums of money around Bournemouth who are part-owned by (amusingly named) Russian businessman Max Denim. Both sides are committed to playing attractive football & that comes from the coaches with Gianfranco Zola being one of the finest players to grace English football in the past 20 years & Eddie Howe one of the brightest young managerial talents around whose reputation was seemingly not harmed by his sacking from Burnley. That attacking philosophy is borne out not just by the fact that both teams were top scorers in their leagues but also because they happened to ship a few goals too with Watford's games containing joint-most overall last year & Bournemouth's 2nd most in League One.

Both teams have started out with 100% records with wins on the first league game of the season & then midweek victories in the first round of the League Cup so will be coming into this game with a little bit of a bounce in their step. That however may not be a good thing for Bournemouth as they are running into one of the Championship's top teams here who only missed out on automatic promotion by a couple of points last year & appear to have a top striker in Troy Deeney even if they couldn't persuade their top man from last year Matej Vydra to stay. The Hornets don't have to just rely on Deeney for firepower though with the diminutive Fernando Forestieri chipping in with a few & the excellent Almen Abdi ready to score as well as creat goals from midfield.

Bournemouth have tried to improve their options in defence with the signings of Ian Harte & Elliott Ward but more than that needs to be done if they aren't to concede with regularity & at the moment it remains to be seen whether their attack at the other end will be able to compensate although Lewis Grabban had a dream start bagging both goals in their 2-1 win against Charlton. We've no worries that Bournemouth will stay up this year as their home form seems likely to be strong but it's on the road that we worry & Watford should be slightly shorter than 8/11 to win this one - the odds of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals was tempting too but we'll stay with the home win.

Brentford vs Sheffield United

The other game we like the look of from a betting point of view is between last season's 3rd & 5th place League One sides, Uwe Rosler's Brentford & start-up manager David Weir's Sheffield United as the two well fancied teams battle it out for early season supremacy.

(Sheffield United will do well to hold on to 6"4 youngster Harry Maguire for another year)

Brentford have gone about increasing their squad size in the summer with loans & permanent signings, with Will Grigg probably the standout buy after the 22 year old scored 19 times in the league for Walsall last term. The Blades have been more cautious in the transfer market in terms of volume but have a big squad already & they'll be desperate for new signings Febian Brandy & Lyle Taylor to fire in the goals they need to add to their defensive solidity that Weir will look to maintain.

Both teams lost a joint league-low 9 games last season but came up with too many draws to claim an automatic promotion place & instead failed in the playoffs. With Sheffield United surely coming to first ensure they don't lose this could be a tense little encounter & that means the draw becomes a big player in the market & odds of 12/5 are very fair indeed. We think Sheffield United will be ultra conscious of the threat Clayton Donaldson provides the Bees & will attempt to defend in numbers to counter that & as they are so comfortable on the back foot a small play of No Goalscorer at 17/2 with BetVictor is advised also.

Selections:
Watford to beat Bournemouth at 8/11 (Various)
Brentford to draw with Sheffield United at 12/5 (Bet365 & SkyBet)
No Goalscorer - Brentford vs Sheffield United at 17/2 (BetVictor)

Championship Antepost Preview 2013-14 - Can't see the Woods for the Forest

It’s hard to believe that it will have only been 69 days since Crystal Palace were victorious in the Championship playoff final when the 2013/14 season gets underway on Saturday. It certainly won’t be long before the same old clichés of "anyone can beat anyone" and "it's the hardest league to get out of" are used again & to be fair it's possible to stake a claim for a dozen sides this coming season but having considered the likely promotion contenders we’ve got two selections... at the prices we think Nottingham Forest at 11/1 (Sky Bet) to win the league and Brighton at 11/2 (BetVictor) to earn promotion represent good value.

(Defender Eric Lichaj appeared in nearly half of Aston Villa's Premier League games last year & looks a solid addition to the Forest squad)

Billy Davies guided Forest into 8^th place last season. Davies took over as Forest manager for the second time with just 15 games of the season remaining, winning 7 of those 15 (46%). A full pre-season working with the players and the ability to sign his own players will certainly help the Forest cause. Lewis McGugan and David McGoldrick have departed however Jamie Mackie, Eric Lichaj, Gonzalo Jara, Jack Hobbs, Dorus De Vries, Djamel Abdoun and Jamie Paterson have all joined the club meaning more strength in depth across the pitch & they certainly look to have options at every position which is key in the grueling 46 league game season.

The ability to pick up points away from home is key in this division – it’s no surprise that the three sides that won the most away games in 12/13 filled the top three places in the table. Not only do Forest need to pick up points away from home but they also  need to turn draws into wins if they are to challenge at the top end of the Championship this season. In 12/13 they drew on 16 occasions, had three of these draws been victories they'd have finished above the eventually promoted side Crystal Palace, hopefully the signings of Mackie et al can improve their fortunes. If they can continue the upward curve that Billy Davies sent them on at the end of last season then Nottingham Forest have every chance of challenging for the top prize.

 

 (New Brighton boss Oscar Garcia will be hoping for no repeats of last year's 'dirty protests' in the dressing room)

We see no reason why the departure of Gus Poyet will destabilise Brighton who impressed many last season when finishing 4^th. The managerial saga was finally concluded in June when former Barca youth coach Oscar Garcia was announced as boss & clearly he's a top pedigree that should fit right in with Brighton's smooth passing style.

Like Forest if Brighton can turn draws into wins they can propel themselves even higher in the league, they accumulated a whopping 18 draws last season & they’ll be hoping that Garcia’s attacking style of play aids them in collecting maximum points more often. Just like Forest they finished last season strongly – 'winning' the second half of the season (claiming 41 points from 23 games).

There have been minimal tweaks in the playing personnel with the permanent signing of the experienced Matthew Upson a boost for the club. Wayne Bridge however will be plying his trade for promotion rivals Reading in 2013/14. We’re in no doubt that Garcia will add to his playing squad before the transfer deadline closes & if they can replicate their performances of last year they should put themselves in the mix once again & claim at least a shot in the playoffs & at a best price of 11/2 (BetVictor) for promotion we think that’s good value.

In the handicap market we think that Ipswich, under Mick McCarthy and Blackburn Rovers will improve on last season; however they’ll probably fall just short with +14 and +12 points respectively. Our selection in this market is Middlesbrough. At 25/1 with a +16 handicap we believe Tony Mowbray’s men can surprise a few and challenge for a top 8 position, giving them every chance in the handicap market. An improvement is required on their travels in they are to compete in the top half, having won 13 of their home games (same amount as promoted Hull) its obvious that the return of 17 points away from the Riverside needs to be bettered in 13/14. Boro finished just 9 points off the playoffs last term – quite remarkable given the fact that they amassed fewer points than any other side in the second half of the season, a summer to shake out the negative thoughts that must've crept in towards the end of the year will have done them the world of good.

(Jordan Rhodes is this division's most proven goalscorer & a worthy favourite for the golden boot)

It's hardly a selection out of the blue given that the Oldham born striker is the favourite but the £8 million hitman Jordan Rhodes bagged 27 goals in 43 appearances at this level last season and a similar return this year should see him triumphant with the only worry being that a Premier League club or maybe Celtic... could come in for him in either transfer window. Rhodes can be backed at 8/1 with BetVictor.

We also quite like a speculative 80/1 (Betfred) shot. Michael Chopra has moved from Ipswich to Blackpool in the close season and clearly knows where the net is. His off the field problems have been well documented and a move to Blackpool might not exactly change his ways however there's no doubt that at this level he scores goals & Blackpool have an attacking philosophy (often to the detriment of their woeful defence) that will help Chopra’s cause. His recent returns haven’t been that impressive but it’s likely that he’ll start far more games for Paul Ince's Tangerines and if he gets the service we can see the goals coming. At an average a goal every 3 appearances (including sub appearances) throughout his career it's feasible Chopra could get 16+ goals for the Bloomfield Road outfit & that should give him a better chance of sneaking into the each way places than odds of 80/1 imply.

Selections:

Nottingham Forest to win the league at 11/1 (Skybet)

Brighton to gain promotion at 11/2 (BetVictor)

Middlesbrough to win handicap with +16 points at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Jordan Rhodes top scorer at 8/1 (BetVictor)

Michael Chopra (e/w) top scorer at 80/1 (Betfred)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Pick the Rite one in Gold Cup

Tuesday's Royal Ascot was a big let down for us with Animal Kingdom completely flopping in the Queen Anne (no explanation for the poor show has been forthcoming) & Reckless Abandon hanging in the latter stages of the King's Stand. It was certainly a disappointing start but Thursday is Gold Cup day & the UK's premier race for stayers looks to offer some value whilst we also think an outsider could outrun its odds in the Britannia Stakes.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

An outstanding showing of 18 runners for this Group One event over two & a half miles & 11 of the runners have official ratings of 112 upwards to show the strength in depth of the race. That strength in depth means you can get 6/1 for the favourite (likely to be the Queen's filly Estimate) & plenty of nice prices elsewhere in the field & we like the 7/1 available about the hugely talented, unfortunately fragile, former winner Rite Of Passage.

(Rite Of Passage is tenacious & classy - what's not to like?)

Dermot Weld's 9 year old won the race in game fashion on today's good to firm ground in 2010 yet has only made it to the track twice since, once in 2011 & again just once in 2012 when winning at the track in October against a high quality field. From just five true flat runs (ignoring bumper races) Rite Of Passage has won 4 races & finished 3rd the other time (to the awesome Fame And Glory) - that's some record & the horse, thankfully, doesn't take much racing so looks likely to put up a serious challenge here.

We're not too keen on Estimate's chances although she's clearly a very nice filly & she gets allowances both for her age & gender meaning she gets 5 pounds off the older horses. We just think that the ground may be against her as sire Monsun tends to get horses with a nice round action that go better with a little cut in the ground & her most impressive display came on soft ground when destroying the field last year here in the Queen's Vase. Her price may just be a little shorter than it should be thanks to her owner (remember all the hype with Carlton House?) & we fear others more including Opinion Poll & Francois Doumen's Top Trip who could come good over this testing trip.

With a proposed run out at the Curragh cancelled the build up to the race could have been better for Rite Of Passage but there's no better horse in the race so odds of 7/1 look very fair indeed & warrant a decent wager.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Britannia Stakes

There's no doubt about it, our next selection is a risky one but how could it be anything else in a 30 runner, one mile charge up the straight course? The pick is Ebn Arab at odds of 40/1 so that risk also offers a potentially hefty reward.

(Charlie Hills sends out Ebn Arab for the Brittania Handicap)

Charlie Hills' charge has looked imperious in wins at York (on debut) & Doncaster (seasonal debut) but has disappointed in his other three, admittedly fairly hot, races. Those wins came when the ground was pretty quick & that's what we think could make the difference here with the Dixie Union colt bred to appreciate a rattlingly quick surface & clearly not handling the step up in trip, stiff finish & soft ground at Sandown last time out. At Doncaster he seemed to enjoy travelling with a bit of cover, even though only a four runner affair, & should be able to find some cover in this big field & if settling could be on a very nice mark of 100 as we had the impression of a pattern performer before his blowout last time.

There are plenty of questions to answer & lots of opposition but Bet365 offer 5 places & odds of 40/1 about Ebn Arab & those terms are tempting enough to advise an each way bet.

Selections:
3.45 Royal Ascot - Rite Of Passage to win at 7/1 (Various)
4.25 Royal Ascot - Ebn Arab each way at 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Just can't resist the Animal Magnetism

Royal Ascot is just about the creme de la creme of British flat racing with other meetings such as Newmarket's Champions Day offering up some top class racing but not being able to match the quantity & quality of Ascot's racing year after year. With the usual reasonable selection of international challengers 2013 looks likely to throw up some great races & give a good indication of just how good some of the home trained stars really are.

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

Kicking off the meeting are three Group Ones in a row & the first race may well see the best horse the meeting has to offer as it features US challenger Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner & this year's convincing Dubai World Cup winner.

(Beautiful beast Animal Kingdom can prove too classy in the opener)

This really doesn't have to be a long preview to convince anyone that Animal Kingdom is the beast to back, last year was a difficult one with training difficulties meaning trainer Graham Motion could get just 2 runs under the horses belt; one in February & then much later in the year with a very creditable 2nd in the always high class Breeders' Cup Mile where top European miler Excelebration was in behind. Animal Kingdom hasn't ever won at a distance as short as a mile & that is a slight concern but lack of pace isn't a problem as evidenced when tearing up the final half mile of the Kentucky Derby in a time only bettered by all-time great Secretariat.

Far less of a concern to Animal Kingdom backers are his rivals here with maybe only a couple of the other challengers looking like genuine Group One contenders. Elusive Kate certainly deserves her place in the lineup & John Gosden's filly is twice a winner at the top level already as well as being placed at Group One level another 4 times & she is an extremely solid each way bet especially if the favourite were to underperform. Other than Elusive Kate we like the look of the progressive older horse Trade Storm; a horse that really flourished in Dubai this winter & ended up starting favourite for the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. David Simcock's 5 year old makes more appeal than Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, that one started a ludicrously priced 5/4 favourite for the Lockinge in early May after Group 3 & Listed race wins against mediocre (for the grade) opposition, & was promptly swept aside & finished a well back 5th.

At Evens it's well worth siding with Animal Kingdom to show its class & win here & add his name to an illustrious roll of honour that inlcudes, over the past 3 years: Paco Boy; Canford Cliffs; Goldikova & Frankel. Comfortable on all surfaces & able to run well without too much racing he's by far the best horse in the race on form & that's borne out by the fact he's 10 pounds clear on official ratings - get on!

3.05 - King's Stand Stakes

As one of the 10 races in the Global Sprint Challenge the King's Stand & has seen numerous international challengers take the prize (6 times in the last 8 runnings) & that helps explain why South African raider Shea Shea is a warm favourite to win here.

(5 furlong champion claims await Clive Cox's Reckless Abandon if he can win here)

Shea Shea was certainly impressive in Dubai last time out, taking the Al Quoz Sprint & setting a track record in the process but two races before that didn't run his race at all & finihsed 7th to one of today's rivals Medicean Man. We like Medicean Man a lot but he's probably not a true Group One horse & it may be that Shea Shea just needed the run there, he's been off the track now for nearly 3 months & if he thrives with racing this might be a little too competitive to trust his fitness at short odds.

The selection for us has to be Reckless Abandon who was challenging up with Dawn Approach as the most exciting & impressive juvenile of 2012 with 5 wins from 5 starts & two Group 2's & two Group One's in the mix. Chucked in at the deep end against older horses on his first start this season Clive Cox's 3 year old ran a fine race in defeat in Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes, he raced on the unfavoured side of the track there & had a Group One penalty to contend with yet finished just a neck & a head behind the winner when claiming 3rd.

With a run just about 4 weeks ago under his belt Reckless Abandon should be spot on for this, 5 furlongs looks the horse's ideal distance (we think) & odds of 5/1 even allow each way betting for the timid amongst us - we think a win bet will suffice though & a small forecast with the impressive last time out Spirit Quartz could be a fun bet too.

Selections:
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes - Animal Kingdom to win at Evens (General)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to win at 5/1 (Boylesports, StanJames & 888Sport)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to beat Spirit Quartz forecast

Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)