Clash of the Manchester Titans - City v United

Monday night sees what is for all intents & purposes a Premier League title decider as Manchester City host Manchester United at the Etihad in maybe the biggest domestic game of football in the last ten years. Will United's old guard, so full of experience & with mantelpieces full of winners medals already be able to keep the hungry upstarts, backed by billions at bay? We've had a look at the fixture & tried to find a few betting angles in what will be an engrossing fixture for even neutrals who haven't had a punt. The football season is drawing to a close & we'll soon be concentrating more on the flat racing season, we had 3 winners from 3 picks on Sunday & you can keep up to date with the latest posts by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney either click the Follow button above or find us on there.

(Ferguson & Mancini will be going into tactical battle in this one)

Sir Alex Ferguson summed up how difficult it is to call the result of this match when noting that his United side were coming here to the Etihad with the league's best away record only to face up against City who have the league's best home record, the Citizens are unbeaten here all season & have only dropped points the once when drawing 3-3 with Sunderland at the end of last month. That game against Sunderland has rather symbolised City over the past couple of months with them looking out of that game & the title race only to continue to battle right to the end & drag themselves right back into things with every chance of getting the win. Carlos Tevez's return has been a catalyst for City's very recent impressive form, with him & fellow Argentinian Sergio Aguero really striking up the type of partnership that was anticipated & eagerly hoped for by City at the start of the season. The City strikeforce is backed up by a superb mix of solidity & style in midfield with Gareth Barry & Yaya Toure controlling many games between them this year & giving the ball to players such as Silva, Milner, Johnson & Nasri who can provide the openings for the strikers. It's often said that the midfield battle is where games are won & you'd have to worry for United if they played with the same setup seen in the last few weeks with a pretty much orthodox 4-4-2. Paul Scholes & Michael Carrick were simply bullied & overrun against Everton at times last week & Ferguson will surely stick another player into the centre to help them out, that could be Wayne Rooney but that would leave them a little light up front with Hernandez, courtesy of a hot run back in October/November the only other player with double figures in league goals. It seems unlikely that Hernandez will be starting in this one though, some of his recent displays have been of a very low quality with poor link up play & getting caught offside on numerous occasions, instead Danny Welbeck could be trusted to lead the line on his own, the young Englishman has been adding more consistency to his displays but now needs to start adding the goals that will see him become a feared striker.

(Nani was checking his usual bad self with an excellent offensive performance last week & looks to have earned himself a new contract at United)

After United conceded four against Everton a last Sunday an awful lot was written & said about a 'dodgy defence' but that may be a little unfair as they've conceded the 2nd least amount of goals in the league (32) behind only City (25) & if you took out the extraordinary 4-4 last weekend & the incredible 6-1 in the reverse fixture then they would have looked outstanding, in the league at least. United have 17 clean sheets from 35 games so there isn't anything fundamentally wrong defensively & that's with missing arguably the world's best centre back in Nemanja Vidic for most of the season. Rafael remains a worry at right back as he seems to lack composure at times & has a questionable temperament & City may target him here, Ferdinand & Evans sometimes look a little ill at ease with burly old fashioned centre forwards but may be more comfortable against the technically excellent Tevez & Aguero. City's defence has been magnificent, especially at home where they've conceded just 10 goals all season & it looks like Micah Richards will be fit & ready to replace Zabaleta after missing their last two games. City have won their last three games & only conceded once in that little run when beating Norwich 6-1 but when you take a look at the opposition they have faced two promoted teams including woeful Wolves away from home & a limited West Brom side at home, before that they had gone on a run of 5 games with just one win (2-1 against Chelsea) so it would be unwise to take too much from the last three. City looked pensive at times against Wolves last weekend & although never in danger of conceding it was maybe illustrative of Mancini's dilemma here, do they go all out for the win from the start, do they push on if they get a lead?

(Carlos Tevez will be looking to make a point against his former club & to his current employers)

The game really is a tough one to call for either team & we're not going to, City's recent form has probably been overplayed & so have United's defensive frailties, at the same time it's difficult to imagine a goalless draw as City have had only one all year (at West Brom) & United haven't had one at all. The draw is available at 5/2 & don't worry about Ferguson saying United always go for the win, that's nonsense as anyone who saw the Blackburn game at the end of last season will testify, Ferguson is the ultimate pragmatist & will happily settle for the draw that would put his side in the driving seat. We said we don't like a 0-0 result so how about 1-1 instead, the price for that is 13/2 with several firms & we're huge fans of Carlos Tevez's footballing ability - it seems the script is written for him to score here, back him to score first & the 1-1 draw at 40/1 in a scorecast.

Selections:
Manchester City v Manchester United to draw at 5/2 (various)
1-1 correct score at 13/2 (various)
Tevez 1-1 scorecast at 40/1

I just want your extra time & your Kiss-ed

Saturday saw the official end of the racing jumps season although with the muddy conditions resembling November's ground more than good flat racing ground around you could be forgiven for thinking we were just getting into the swing of things. It means that it's now time to concentrate on the flat season which is beginning to gear up, we've the 1000 & 2000 Gunieas next weekend & Newbury's Lockinge meeting in the middle of the month where we'll see the returning Frankel. For Sunday's racing we're looking across the Irish Sea to Navan where some of the big Irish trainers are running some real prospects, we think we've some good bets to fill the pockets before Monday's big betting heat with the Manchester derby in the Premier League.

(Kissed winning her maiden back in October 2011)

We see what is effectively an Oaks trial in the 3.25 Listed 1m 2f race for fillies & it looks like Aidan O'Brien's Kissed is the one to concentrate on here. O'Brien seems to have his string in mighty fine order striking with a third of his runners in the past two weeks & has picked up the winner's trophy in the last three Listed or better races he's had runners in. Kissed is by Galileo & out of a Darshaan mare so really should have the stamina to be a real Oaks contender & she should handle these testing conditions, not just because of her pedigree but because she also won her maiden impressively after travelling well in soft ground. Kissed's maiden saw her beat one of today's rivals Violet Lashes & that one has run to a good but not exceptional level of form since, they were miles clear of the rest that day back in October & Kissed could have won by more, she's the one with bags of improvement &is a certainty to confirm form with that rival. Aaraas has run in three Group 3's since winning her maiden & has an official rating of 98, she's run this year which is a positive but needs to run above that official mark to win here & isn't open to too much improvement. One that could improve & is rated the main danger is Cleofilia, she won a very good maiden back in August & the runner up (by a head) Coral Wave has gone on to be pretty decent winning a Listed & group 3 race since. Cleofilia is an obvious danger but we reckon that Kissed's breeding is better suited to this test with Cleofilia's sire Teofilo not as proven (obviously) as Galileo, Kissed really will take some beating here & at odds of 4/6 & bigger she should be backed heavily.

(Unaccompanied winning the 2011 Alleged stakes - subsequent Breeders Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey trailing in the purple colours here!)

Another filly with a top chance is the versatile & mud loving Unaccompanied, she beat subsequent Breeders Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey at the Curragh over 1m 2f last year & the Grade One winning hurdler will take some stopping in the 5.35 over 3 furlongs further. Dermot Weld's filly is a high class sort & this type of distance is what she wants these days, she lost her last hurdle race but it was the red hot Champion Hurdle & she's had a break since. Chief rival looks to be O'Brien's Robin Hood who won on debut over 10 furlongs at the start of the season, beating Rising Wind comfortably, but then rather blew up when raced 10 days later at Cork & the step up in distance isn't certain to suit here. With Unaccompanied getting a pound in weight off of Robin Hood she's the one to back & any odds of Evens or better should be taken.

Finally, in a three year old maiden race where only two of the runners have racecourse experience we're going to take a chance on the John Ox trained Karatash who has a likely pedigree being by Halling out of a King's Best mare.  Karatash's mare was a decent type on the course, earning a rating of 94 & although winning on godd to firm she appeared to act on good to yielding ground & Halling seems to get stamina laden sorts, the Aga Khan's horses are all beautifully bred & he has two here but this one would be the first string with the underrated Johnny Murtagh on board. The likely favourite is going to be Father Of Science from the O'Brien yard, a colt with a similar pedigree to our earlier pick Kissed, being by alileo out of a Darshaan mare, this one might just be a little too short though & sometimes the money flows in for these Ballydoyle types without any concrete knowledge of how well they've been working at home. We won't know the odds for Karatash until tomorrow but at anything bigger than 3/1 we'd say a small wager wouldn't be the worst idea.

Selections:
3.25 Navan - Kissed to win at 4/6
4.00 Navan - Karatash to win (back at odds of 3/1 or bigger)
5.35 Navan - Unaccompanied to win at 6/5

Hand in Glovers - the Sun Shines out of Yeovil's Behind

It really is crunch time in the English football leagues with the Championship seeing its final weekend of regular season action & Leagues One & Two with their second to last round of games. There's also plenty to play for in the Premier League with only Wolves definitely relegated & a fierce battle going on for European spots, city bragging rights & of course Monday's massive clash between Manchesters City & United in what looks to be a true title decider. We've got our usual Saturday preview here with some top value bets, keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney you can do it just by clicking the Follow button above or by finding us on there, as ever good punting & good luck!

(Loanee Steven Pienaar is flourishing with regular football at familiar surroundings)

At Goodison Park, Everton will look to continue their fine form against mid-table Fulham. Everton put in a mightily impressive performance at Old Trafford last Sunday to come back from 3-1 and then 4-2 down to gain a point & put a major dent into United's title hopes. Arguably they have three of the league's form players in January signings Nikica Jelavic & Steven Pienaar (loan) and the frizzy haired Belgian Marouane Fellaini who bullied Johnny Evans & Rio Ferdinand into submission with ease. Apart from a blip at Wembley against bitter rivals Liverpool they are unbeaten in their last five league games with comfortable victories to nil over Swansea City, West Bromwich Albion & Sunderland. Visitors Fulham have had a decent season under the guidance of Martin Jol but as usual their strength has been at Craven Cottage rather than on the road. Away from home Fulham have lost half of their matches & only picked up three wins over relegation threatened Queens Park Rangers, Wigan Athletic & Bolton Wanderers, they've managed just 11 goals at a measly rate of 0.69 goals per game & you would expect they will struggle to breach a strong Everton defensive unit. Everton have the added incentive of finishing ahead of Liverpool & collecting the three points is a must at the best price of 20/23 with Boylesports.

(Striker Andy Williams 15 goals this season & could be in demand this summer)

In League One it looks like a couple of bookies have priced up Chesterfield to beat Yeovil based on the fact that 'they need to win' in their battle against relegation, that's foolish as Chesterfield are woeful travellers & all of us as enlightened punters must take advantage here. Chesterfield are down in 22nd & even if they win their remaining two games they'll need plenty of help from the teams in front of them to stand a chance of staying up, they've won just 3 away games all year & we don't like the odds of 6/4 in places about them winning this one. Backers of Chesterfield will point to an unexpected recent resurgence with them winning their last 3 in a row & giving themselves a glimmer of hope but those 3 wins have come against low grade opposition in mid table Hartlepool, 20th placed Wycombe & bottom of the table Rochdale. Yeovil haven't been great recently & took a pounding in their last home game against Stevenage, losing 6-0, they will be desperate to sign off on a positive in their last game in front of their home fans & Huish Park should have a boisterous atmosphere. Andy Williams & Jonathan Franks have been scoring fairly readily recently & will fancy their chances against a Chesterfield side that have conceded the second most away goals away from home in the league (45 in 22 games). Get on the Glovers, Yeovil can win at nice odds of 17/10 available with BetVictor who go best odds about all three results (Home/Away/Draw).

(Middlesbrough will hope to have strike Marvin Emnes return from his ongoing knee injury)

In the final round of Championship fixtures, Middlesbrough have a must win fixture over Watford at Vicarage Road. Middlesbrough need all three points & also hope Welsh side Cardiff City lose away at Crystal Palace to gain the final play-off spot. Middlesbrough have given themselves a chance after coming from behind to beat Southampton 2-1 last weekend & have grabbed seven points from a possible nine in their last three. Most sides would prefer a home fixture when looking for a maximum points but not Middlesborough who have a better record on the road with ten victories compared to only eight at home. Hosts Watford recovered from a poor opening few months to sit comfortably in 14th place which gives rookie manager Sean Dyche something to build on next season & of course they'll be wanting to win their last home game, although that could prove difficult against Boro who have some latent quality. Watford thrived over a busy period in March where they went unbeaten with 5 wins & 2 draws but they've stuttered recently with a loss & 3 draws since, it's in direct contrast to Boro who had a horrible period going 8 without a win from 11th March but they've got the engine running again in their last three games. It may not be enough to clinch a playoff spot but Middlesbrough can at least give themselves a chance by winning here at odds of 6/4.

Selections:
Everton to beat Fulham at 20/23 (Boylesports)
Yeovil to beat Chesterfield at 17/10 (BetVictor)
Middlesbrough to beat Watford at 6/4 (Boylesports & BetVictor)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 26

After week 24 our followers were making a £42.08 loss after a poor week, could they improve their form in week 25? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@toddycounago	Southampton & Crewe double	Saints lost away at Boro 2-1 whilst Crewe won 1-0 LOSER
@Jugador1984	Cardiff/Leeds draw	Spot on with the early kick-off ending 1-1 (@ 3/1) WINNER
@rahulm3	Monaco to beat Le Havre	Monaco won 1-0 (@ 1.80) WINNER
@ecko_	Draw no bet double of Sunderland & QPR	QPR grabbed all three points but Sunderland only mustered a draw 0-0 VOID
@grays67lufc	BTTS fourfold - Bristol City/Barnsley, QPR/Spurs, Reading/Crystal Palace and Accrington/Shrewsbury	Only Barnsley & Spurs let down this BTTS fourfold LOSER
@grays67lufc	Cardiff/Leeds and MK Dons/Sheffield United – draw double	Cardiff/Leeds draw but MK Dons won 1-0 LOSER
@FlutteringOwl	Cardiff to beat Leeds and Hull to draw with N. Forest	Cardiff/Leeds ended 1-1 & Hull beat N. Forest 2-1 LOSER
@rigger60	Charlton & Arsenal double	The London derby ended in a dire 0-0 draw & Charlton won 2-1 LOSER

Our followers’ had a disappointing week 25 & increased their overall loss to -£43.18, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 28^th April / 29^th April:

@DanRS2000 Moto2 & Moto3 at Jerez this weekend. Can be a lottery but 2 Brit riders topped the times pre-season testing at Jerez: Redding & Kent 18s and 12s good ew bets, get on before first practice tomorrow, if it rains, Ant West in Moto2 @ 80s. In the betting for Jerez you can now get S Redding @ 16/1 (Moto2), D Kent @ 16/1 (Moto3) & A West is only @ 25/1.

@conormc1972 picks Blackburn to beat Spurs. Blackburn are the general price of 15/2 to beat a Spurs side going through a difficult period.

@grayslufc Newcastle...biggest price you can get them #weekendbankers. A massive game with consequences at both ends of the table & Newcastle are the best price of 8/5 at William Hill to win.

@rahulm3 is looking to build on his winner last week & selects Newcastle DNB vs Wigan. Newcastle are 4/5 in the DNB market.

@NicoHillkenberg Newcastle, Huddersfield and Man Utd in a 20/1 treble is crazy returns! Newcastle are a popular bet to beat Wigan, Huddersfield travel to Walsall & let’s not forget the huge title decider in Manchester.

@toddycounago has a double of Crewe and Watford draw no bet. Crewe have a trip to Torquay & Watford are at home to play-off hopefuls Middlesbrough – the DNB double is over 4/1.

@Jugador1984 our most successful tipster goes for Cardiff to draw and Boro to win. The draw between Crystal Palace/Cardiff & Middlesbrough to beat Watford is 15/2.

@agilebeast Newcastle 8/5. Newcastle W6 on the bounce and playing terrific stuff. Wigan, although improved, have only W3 at home all season.

@rigger60 selects a cheeky double of Shrewsbury (4/9) to beat Dagenham & Redbridge and Swansea (4/7) to beat rock bottom Wolves. The very safe looking double pays a measly 1.27 / 1.      

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Chelsea can keep things tight in Nou Camp

(Ramires will need to be at the top of his game for Chelsea to stand a chance at the Nou Camp)

Chelsea came up with a brilliant result back at Stamford Bridge but it took a lot of luck & things will be tougher here in the outstanding Spanish team's back yard. The 1-0 was a particularly good result for Chelsea though as it now means that Barcelona have to tread very carefully because if Chelsea can sneak an away goal it'll mean they need to score three to progress. Roberto Di Matteo is unlikely to commit too many resources going forwards though as he knows that Barca have the players to take apart any team that tries to play expansively as shown to great effect against Manchester United in a couple of finals where Ferguson wasn't humble enough to curb his team's attacking instincts. It looks like hard work & men behind the ball will be the game plan & Ramires will again be key, the tireless Brazilian is now getting the plaudits his season has deserved & he won't allow Barcelona's players a moment of relaxation.

(Cesc Fabregas could be the 'Keymaster' to Chelsea's defensive 'Gatekeepers')

Barcelona have all of the weapons needed to unlock a tight defence though with Iniesta, Fabregas & the incomparable Xavi pulling the strings from midfield, some of Cesc Fabregas's passing & movement was outstanding in the first leg & he arguably should have scored there. It seems that Lionel Messi continues to do the impossible & get even better season after season setting the bar for excellence ever higher but it must be a concern to manager Pep Guardiola that he was nowhere near the top of his game at Stamford Bridge & was quiet as a mouse by his standards in the 2-1 loss to Real at the weekend. It has been an incredibly busy season for Barcelona already with a pre-season tour, progressing through the rounds of every competition & also the World Club Championships again & they really don't have the huge squad that you'd expect to see with their success & it has seemed in recent weeks that all of those games may just be taking a toll. A lot has been written about Chelsea's record since Di Matteo has taken over & it has been vastly improved but many of their wins have come against low grade opposition or out of sorts sides (like the currently horrible Spurs) & as impressive as last week's win was you have to fancy Barcelona here although odds of 2/7 are uninviting. We reckon this could be really tight, John Terry & Ashley Cole were ace last week & Barcelona really didn't get too many shots off against Real on Saturday, with that in mind this could just be a 1-0 win & send things to extra time. The 8/1 available for 1-0 is tempting but we're keener to get on the massive odds offered for a penalty win, Chelsea are available at 66/1 to win on penalties & Barcelona at 40/1, with the prohibitive odds offered on Barca surely this is the way to go with small stakes offering potentially huge payouts.

Selections:
Chelsea to win on penalties at 66/1 (Skybet)
Barcelona to win on penalties at 40/1 (Bluesquare & 888Sport)

Welsh Wizards to serve up Wins

April has turned into our Monthus Horriblis after what has been a great start to 2012 betting wise. Short heads in races & draws that should have been wins in football games have become regular occurrences over the past couple of weeks & illustrate the dangers of betting at the beginning or end of seasons in any sports. It isn't a bad strategy to pare down bet sizes at this time of year as being cautious with your regular betting means you can save up for those really big bookie smashing punts for ultra confident picks. We've looked through the leagues to find some ace footy bets & although value is thin on the ground in the Premier League there are some good odds to be had elsewhere, as ever the best of luck & keep winning!

(Welsh loanee Jake Cassidy has scored 4 goals in 5 games for Tranmere)

In League One, Tranmere Rovers entertain Hartlepool at Prenton Park in a mid-table clash. Tranmere are two places & two points above Hartlepool as they both look to end their seasons on a high rather than a whimper. Tranmere had a major mid season blip but have picked up in recent months & have won six of their last nine league games making them one of the form teams in the league, in front of the home faithful they have been at their best & are unbeaten in their last ten matches. Tranmere have won their last four in a row with an aggregate scoreline of 9-1 & the loan signing of Jake Cassidy from Wolves seems to have really freshened up their attacking play. Visitors Hartlepool have also had their struggles this season & they have only won one of their last ten league games, they lost 2-1 at home to Chesterfield last weekend & boss Neale Cooper says his players should feel as disappointed as fans by recent results. Away from home the Monkey Hangers have mustered just four goals in their last seven games so Tranmere at the attractive price of evens with Paddy Power & Ladbrokes look to be the bet here.

(Cardiff stopper David Marshall will hope to keep stuttering Leeds at bay)

Here's one for you: in 7 of Cardiff City's last 8 games there have been two goals or less; for Leeds that figure is less than two goals in 10 of their last 12; in their early kickoff game on Saturday the odds for under 2.5 goals are 5/6 - all we can say is wow! This is a game where a win will confirm Cardiff's playoff place whereas a loss could leave Middlesbrough right on their tail so Malky Mackay will be determined to keep things tight & not lose. Over the whole season there have been plenty of total goals at the Cardiff City stadium but not over the past few weeks as their success has been built on a solid base & relying on some high quality midfield & forward play to nick the goals they need to keep grinding out the results. Leeds haven't kicked on with manager Neil Warnock's tenure & now they'll surely already be looking to next year & could take this as an opportunity to field some players that haven't had much recent action to see what they can do. We can certainly see a Cardiff victory here & it's likely to be a low scoring one, back the under 2.5 goals with confidence & a small wager on Cardiff 1-0 at 13/2 is worth a punt too.

(Rotherham boss Steve Evans embarks on a new challenge after a successful spell with Crawley)

In League Two, Rotherham need three points against Morecambe to keep alive their slim hopes of capturing the final play-off spot. New manager Steve Evans left promotion hopefuls Crawley Town to join Rotherham recently & this will be his first home game in charge, their current form has seen them win four of their last five before last weekend's 3-1 away defeat to formidable home side Shrewsbury Town. Rotherham are strong at home though & at the Don Valley Stadium they have won their last three in a row & four of their last five. Morecambe are going through a difficult spell currently & have only picked up one point in their last three league games & goals haven't be easy to come by, with them failing to score in three of their last five. With Steve Evans firing up the home side to get the fans on side we expect Rotherham to come out on top at the general price of 4/5.

As an additional little 3 odds on team treble we like the look of Bristol City (5/6), Notts County (8/15) & Reading (2/5) to win their respective games. Bristol City have had an upturn in fortunes & are unbeaten in 6 whilst opponents Barnsley haven't won away to them in over 20 years (12 attempts). Whilst Bury have been playing well of late they tend to be a much better home team & look up against it at Notts County who have only lost to the sides in 1st, 2nd & 3rd at home plus one blip to 20th placed Leyton Orient, they should weep the Shakers away here. The Reading pick speaks for itself, they are in incredible form & if they win here will become champions whereas Crystal Palace look to have little motivation to go all out for this one.

Selections:

Tranmere Rovers to beat Hartlepool at evens (Paddy Power/Ladbrokes)
Cardiff City v Leeds United under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (Coral & Bodog)
Cardiff City to beat Leeds United 1-0 at 13/2 (Coral & William Hill)
Rotherham to beat Morecambe at 4/5 (various)

Tasty Treble: Bristol City, Notts County & Reading all to win pays £39.30 to a £10 stake

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 25

After week 23 our followers were making a £37.28 loss after an ok week, could they improve their form in week 24? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@jfleet11	Giles Cross to win	Giles Cross pulled up at fence 11 (open ditch) LOSER
@jfleet11	Sunnyhillboy e/w	So close...came 2nd in a photo finish (ew @ 16/1) WINNER
@grays67lufc	Cardiff, Huddersfield & Sheffield Wednesday	A winner, loser & a draw puts pay to this treble LOSER
@grays67lufc	BTTS - Carlisle/Charlton, Rochdale/Exeter, Notts Forest/Blackpool & Spurs/Chelsea	Charlton, Rochdale, Exeter, Spurs & Chelsea scored but the rest all failed LOSER
@grays67lufc	Ballabriggs, Organised Confusion & Shakalakaboomboom	Ballabriggs finished 6th, Shakalakaboomboom 9th & Organised Confusion unseated jockey at fence 8 (Canal turn) LOSER
@tyrone3165	Sunderland, Swansea & West Ham	Sunderland could only muster a 0-0 at home whilst both Swansea & West Ham easily won LOSER
@rigger60	Shrewsbury Town & Watford	Shrewsbury won 3-1 but Watford drew 1-1 LOSER

Our followers’ had a poor week 24 & increased their overall loss to -£42.08, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 21^st April / 22^nd April:

@toddycounago fancies a Southampton and Crewe double. Southampton travel to Middlesborough in the late Championship kick-off and Crewe host Cheltenham Town. The double pays 4/1.

@Jugador1984 goes for Cardiff and Leeds to draw in the early kick off tomorrow. The draw is the best price 3/1 with BetVictor.

@rahulm3 picks Monaco to beat Le Havre in French Ligue 2, 1.80 odds - BANKER!!

@ecko_ likes a draw no bet double of Sunderland and QPR. 6/1 with William Hill. Sunderland go to struggling Aston Villa whilst QPR entertain Spurs in the late Premiership match.

@grays67lufc BTTS fourfold - Bristol City/Barnsley, QPR/Spurs, Reading/Crystal Palace and Accrington/Shrewsbury. The fourfold pays 11.5/1.

@grays67lufc second selection of Cardiff/Leeds and MK Dons/Sheffield United – draw double. The double pays a big 13/1.

@FlutteringOwl has a double of Cardiff to beat Leeds and Hull to draw with Forest @ 9/2.

@rigger60 has a cheeky double of Charlton (4/6) to beat Wycombe and Arsenal (11/10) to beat a tired Chelsea side. The above double pays 5/2.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Make the most of it - you won't see this price Twice Over

Newmarket's Craven meeting is when the flat season starts to get into the swing of things & Thursday sees the Craven itself plus another pattern race in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton stakes over 9 furlongs, it's this race that sees what could be an early betting highlight of this flat season.  

(Twice Over should give Tom Queally a steering job in Newmarket's Earl of Sefton Stakes)

Twice Over is one of the top horses in training, Timeform has Henry Cecil's 7 year old entire rated as the 14th best over all distances in the world & for there to be odds of 11/8 available for the four time Group One winner here is quite astonishing. The opposition here is reasonable for a Group 3 but nothing of the calibre that should be able to hold a candle to Twice Over, the next highest rated is Ransom Note who is rated 9 pounds inferior yet has to concede 5 pounds of weight to his rivals thanks to the conditions of the race. Twice Over easily defeated Ransom note at York last year & that was with him conceding 3 pounds, with an 8 pound swing in the favourites favour there should be little to fear from Charlie Hills' runner.

(Penitent (centre) just outpointed Questioningg (left) the other day but if you can find a match bet between the two we fancy Questioning to improve past the Doncaster winner)

Penitent & Questioning finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Doncaster Mile a couple of weeks back & so at least have race fitness on their side, we'd be happy to take Questioning in a match bet between the two but both would need much improvement to beat Twice Over. In fact the only worry we have with the selction is that this is his seasonal debut & he's been beaten in the race before back in 2009, Cecil appears to have his string in fine order though with 3 winners from 9 runners so far & Twice Over has won on three occasions after a 60+ day break & also on debut so can go well fresh. We've no qualms about advising a maximum sized bet on Twice Over to win here, he's far superior to the opposition & breaks don't tend to harm his chances too much, get your money on at 11/8.

Selection:
Newmarket 4.45 - Twice Over to win at 11/8

European Giants clash in the Allianz Arena

We're back with selections from a couple of great games on Tuesday - it was a nearly weekend for us as Everton took the lead v Liverpool only to throw it away & Crewe & Torquay only getting draws when deserving better in League Two. Add to those results Cappa Bleu finishing like a train in the Grand National when clearly being underestimated & given too much to do by Paul Moloney & it seemed like we were always destined to be nearly men, Chelsea did the business in the FA Cup though thanks to a little refereeing help & things could be on the upturn on the betting front here!

(Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - could Mario Gomez claim the match ball?)

The two Champions League semi finals look really good affairs & to kick off we see two of the most exciting teams in the world face off in Germany as Bayern Munich host Real Madrid in the Allianz Arena as they seek to progress to the final being held in their own stadium. Both sides can lay claim to having just about the best attacking talent around with Bayern having Ribery, Gomes & Robben all capable of wreaking havoc on opposition defences & Real Madrid being able to pair the incredible Cristiano Ronaldo with the powerful & skillful beasts that are Benzema & Higuain. Both sides have reached this stage with the minimum of fuss really, the one time Bayern were in a bother after trailing 1-0 from the first leg v Basle they came out & stuck 7 past the helpless Swiss side! Bayern's chances of league success have faded but that means they're able to put absolutley everything into this game & showed that by resting a few players at the weekend including captain Philip Lahm, they'll be desperate to get a win here so that they have a lead to take to the Bernabeu, that should mean we see their usual attacking ethos in operation & nobody seems to have found a way of stopping Mario Gomes as of yet. Mourinho is nothing if not pragmatic & he may put out a more defensively minded team than usual, with Germany international Sami Khedira acting as a shield to his defence, that shouldn't take away Madrid's goal threat though as Ronaldo has so much quality he scores in near enough every game regardless of tactics. Even is Real do adopt a more defensive strategy than usual it shouldn't be anything too extreme & we can see goals in this one with 5/6 about over 2.5 being a very juicy price. For an extra bet at what could be a big price take Mario Gomez to bag the first goal of the game at 11/2, or back him at 9/2 with Betfred & take advantage of their offer where they'll double the odds if you back a player & he scores again after opening the scoring & treble it if he knocks in a hatrick.

(Midfielder Ben Marshall has been in the goals in recent weeks with 2 in his last 3 games)

In the Championship, Leicester City host Burnley at the King Power Stadium. Leicester are 9th & Burnley are two places below in 11th so if either side has any ambition of making the play-off places this is a must win fixture. Leicester are in decent form with four wins & two draws in their last eight league matches but they were defeated away at Millwall last weekend, the hostile atomosphere at the New Den means it's always a tough place to go though. However it's the Foxes home form that stands out with 11 victories so far & they are on a current unbeaten run of seven matches, winning five of these matches with the most impressive ones coming against play-off position teams of Birmingham City & Cardiff City. Burnley's league form is mixed but they are unbeaten in their last three with two victories over Doncaster Rovers & Brighton & Hove Albion. Away from home this season Burnley have been defeated ten times out 21 matches & only managed five clean sheets, they've lost four of their last seven away games & we don't expect them to put up too much resistance here. Leicester City can win on their own patch at the best price of 8/11.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Bayern Munich v Real Madrid at 5/6 (BetVictor & 32Red)
Mario Gomez to score first at 11/2 (BetVictor & William Hill - or Betfred & their double delight/hatrick heaven offer at 9/2)
Leicester City to beat Burnley at 8/11 (general)

The double on over 2.5 goals & Leicester pays £31.67 to a £10 stake

Grand National - Cappa can take the Bleu Riband

Saturday sees the biggest annual betting event of the year with the 2012 Grand National at Aintree & we have a strong fancy for the race, there's some decent racing beforehand though & we like Zarkandar in the Aintree hurdle.

(Zarkandar (centre) winning at Newbury with subsequent impressive Grade 2 winner Get Me Out Of Here in behind)

Paul Nicholl's 5 year old is taken to beat his older rivals here & prove his Champion Hurdle running to be all wrong. Nicholls' other runner Rock On Ruby won that Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham but the belief among the Nicholls' camp was that Zarkandar was by far & away their main hope, unfortunately his Ditcheat horses were a little under the weather at the time (Rock On Ruby was instead trained at a satellite yard) & Zarkandar didn't show up at all well beforehand & didn't give his true running, doing all his best work right at the end of the race. We're thoroughly unsold on the merits of last year's winner Oscar Whisky, he held off the returning Thousand Stars by a head that time & both of their form ties in strongly with Hurricane Fly, form that we'd argue was always overrated & now deflated thanks to Oscar Whisky & Hurricane Fly being comprehensively defeated at Cheltenham once they took on different horses rather than just each other or extremely weak fields. It could be argued that Oscar Whisky will be best suited to this 2 mile 4 furlong contest but we suspect he's only doen so well over the distance because so few top class horses even try it, apart from occasionally in this race. Zarkandar won at the meeting last year, stays on extremely well at the end of races & has the master jockey Ruby Walsh on board, odds of 5/2 are great value with trainer Paul Nicholls in good form at the meeting already.

(These are the sort of scenes we want to be seeing at 4.30, with Cappa Bleu returning victorious)

Cappa Bleu is our idea of the winner, a classy sort that has already shown he can handle tough conditions when 3rd in this year's Welsh National in horrible ground. Evan Williams' 10 year old is the right age as 4 of the last 6 winners have aged the same, he'll enjoy conditions more here than at Chepstow as the ground only looks like being on the softish side rather than heavy ground. Cappa Bleu hasn't been the easiest horse to train, with very few miles under rules on the clock but Williams has been sounding confident in the build up, reckoning that he now has him at hios very best. This is a horse that lined up for the Hennessy, that Denman won so marvellously, at odds of 12/1 & won a Cheltenham race, the Foxhunters, on his first start under rules - with such class we have to be keen with odds of 18/1 available in places. Of course Cappa Bleu could fall (this is the Grand National after all) but we don't see him being far away if he gets around & we're confident with regards to stamina & the ground. Dangers are obviously the Gold Cup winner Synchronised & Becher winner West End Rocker, especially with Alan King's horses going so well.

(Vic Venturi (right) proving he's a good jumper of these National fences)

With 40 runners & 30 fences people often say that 'anything' could win & 'it's a bit of a lottery' but if you look back through the stats 8 winners from the last 10 runnings have won at odds of 20/1 or shorter with only Silver Birch (33/1) & one of this year's runners Mon Mome (100/1) being the real upset winners. None of the real outsiders get us going much this time around but it is interesting to see Vic Venturi at odds of 66/1, Dessie Hughes's 11 year old finished 2nd to Follow The Plan in the Grade One Guiness Gold Cup at Punchestown last May & that horse won the Betfred Bowl here on Thursday. Rare Bob was behind in third at Punchestown yet is a shorter price here even though worse off at the weights & it could be worth taking a risk with a small each way bet on Vic Venturi who looks to have been targeted solely at the race & has won over these fences before in the 2009 Becher Chase.

Selections:
2.50 Aintree - Zarkandar to win at 5/2 (various)
4.15 Aintree - Cappa Bleu to win at 18/1 (Bet365 & Coral)
4.15 Aintree - Vic Venturi each way at 66/1 (various)