Royal Ascot Day Two - Bonnie & Lora to strike for the girls

Day two of Royal Ascot  sees us slow down a bit from the first day & the three Group Ones plus Frankel to start with, it's still a great card with four Group races, a Listed handicap & the ultra competitive Royal Hunt Cup. We gave you Excelebration to win without Frankel & Side Glance yesterday (2nd & 3rd behind Frankel) & we'll be looking for more winners for Wednesday's racing below.

(Bonnie Brae can go one better than she managed in the Victoria Cup)

The Royal Hunt Cup is one of the handicaps of the season & with 30 runners in the field it certainly won't prove easy, in the last 10 runnings 7 of the winners have been a double figure price & currently there's only one horse on offer at less than 10/1 - the likeable Dimension. James Fanshawe has won this twice as a trainer & dimension won a handicap back here in September before a decent comeback run when coming 2nd to Bronze Prince at Lingfield. Dimension also fits the profile of a typical winner, being a 4 year old with potential for improvement but he has come 2nd four times in his 11 race career already & we don't like to see that.

Rock Critic is interesting as at 7 years old he's still only had 16 runs for Derot Weld & has clearly been difficult to keep healthy but connections have persevered & now have a very nice handicapper that has won 5 of its last 8 runs. For once though Weld's runners aren't absolutely flying & tempted as we are at a price of 20/1 we'll leave alone. The horse we like for this one is probably very slightly older than ideal but Bonnie Brae seems to have kept improving & is quite closely matched with the favourite Dimension on form linking them both to Bronze Prince. Dominic Elsworth's mare handles cut in the ground & she finished 2nd here on her seasonal debut in the very valuable 24 runner Victoria Cup which shows she should handle the race just fine. We can write off Bonnie Brae's last run where she came 10th as there was firm in the description of the going, top jockey Ryan 'Smiler' Moore is again partnering her & she should give him a great ride at juicy odds of 18/1. There are a few firms offering 5 places in the race so if you do back each way make sure to get on with those.

(Falls Of Lora can bounce back to form in the Sandringham)

We love the chances of the Godolphin horse Falls Of Lora in the last race of the day, she won impressively at Dubai earlier in the year but then failed to fire against the colts in the UAE Derby although the race didn't appear to suit closers that day & she should get a true enough pace here. Falls Of Lora has already won here when winning a conditions race in impressive fashion last September & this is certainly tougher but we think she might just have shown the highest level of form yet is getting 7 pounds off of top weight Electrelane. Electrelane has a mark of 109 courtesy of a length 2nd to Laugh Out Loud where she finished 10 lengths clear of the rest at York but we're unconvinced about those horses in behind although Laugh out Loud went on to win the French race with the same name as this.

Frankie Dettori is on the other Godolphin runner but it seems unclear whether he's first jockey now anyway & Falls Of Lora had his mount Pimpernel well behind when winning in Dubai. At odds of 20/1 back Mikael Barzalona to show why he's Godolphin's number one, he can guide Falls Of Lora home with a late rattle.

Selections:
4.25 Royal Ascot - Bonnie Brae each way at 18/1 (Totesport & Betfred + first 5 places pay)
5.35 Royal Ascot - Falls Of Lora each way at 20/1 (William Hill)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Tuesday 19th June

The final group games see France, England & Ukraine fight it out for the final two quarter final spots with France up against already eliminated Sweden & England taking on co-hosts Ukraine & they will face a hostile partisan atmosphere - can they overcome it? We'll be back with a preview of Thursday's first quarter final between Portugal & the Czech Republic, check out our Royal Ascot bets during the small break in football betting & fill your coffers up that way too!

(Wayne Rooney is out of the stands & straight back into England's starting eleven)

7:45 pm - England vs Ukraine

England's final group game is against co-hosts Ukraine at the Donbass Arena, Donetsk as both sides battle it out to reach the knockout stages. Ukraine must win the match to qualify at the expense of England whilst a draw will be good enough for Roy Hodgson's side to progress.

England have picked up four points with victory over Sweden & a draw with current group leaders France. For the first time in the tournament England have a full squad to pick from as Wayne Rooney returns from his two match suspension & Hodgson has confirmed Rooney will start the game so one of Danny Welbeck & Andy Carroll will miss out.

Winger Theo Walcott changed the game against Sweden with his goal & assist for Welbeck which meant a  1-2 deficit was turned into a 3-2 victory. He picked up a minor strain but has been declared fit so leaves Hodgson a choice of rewarding him a start (replacing either James Milner & Ashley Young) or again using him as an impact sub?

Ukraine have a concern over veteran striker Andrei Shevchenko who is rated 50:50 but we would be very surprised if he misses out on what has been described as 'the biggest game in the country's history' by fellow forward Andrei Voronin. Shevchenko is Ukraine's biggest treat & did cause problems to French centre back duo Phillippe Mexes & Adil Rami but apart from a few glimpses from winger Andriy Yarmolenko there attacking quality isn't great. But they will be looking to put pressure on England with set plays as England struggled & conceded two goals vs Sweden via this route.

This should be another tight affair with a raucous crowd behind the co-hosts Ukraine creating an electric atmosphere. But England with the returning Rooney should be too strong for Ukraine & three points will mean a quarter final berth at the best price of 5/4. 

(Striker Karim Benzema will look to open his tournament account against eliminated Sweden)

7:45 pm - Sweden vs France

The other game in Group D sees current leaders France play Sweden at the Olympic Stadium, Kiev. Les Blues look certain to qualify as only an England defeat, combined with them losing by a bigger margin can put them out whilst Sweden have already been eliminated with their defeat the other night.

France have a concern over midfielder Yohan Cabaye who has a slight knock but in Yann M'Vila they have a readymade replacement so the balance of the team won't change if needed. Against Ukraine the attacking midfield trio of Franck Ribery, Samir Nasri & goalscorer Jeremy Menez were excellent & their constant changing of positions will cause the weak defensive unit of Sweden major headaches. Again their creativity will provide Karim Benzema with plenty of goalscoring opportunities so take advantage of the 6/4 available for him to score at anytime as with Ronaldo the other night it's only a matter of time before he finds the net.

Sweden will be going home after this match so coach Erik Hamren has indicated a number of fringe players may get their opportunities. One definite change is that either Markus Rosenburg or Ola Toivonen will replace Johan Elmader in attack & partner the outstanding Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ibrahimovic was hugely disappointed with the outcome in the England match & French midfielders M'Vila & Alou Diarra will need to pay close attention to him as his deeper role means he'll be playing in the space between him & the back four. As well as being vulnerable to set pieces themselves, Sweden, are a threat with good delivery from either Kim Kallstrom or Sebastian Larsson & Olof Mellberg will want to add another international goal to his collection before his likely retirement from the tournament arena. The suspicion is that the Swedes will prove a touch deflated now that they are eliminated, after turning around a goal deficit into a 2-1 lead only to then lose against England, if France can take a lead we see Sweden heads dropping & a good win could be on the cards & we'll have a small punt on a 3-0 France win at 14/1.

Selections:
England to beat Ukraine at 5/4 (Paddy Power/Stan James)
France to beat Sweden 3-0 at 14/1 (various)
Karim Benzema to score at anytime vs Sweden at 6/4 (BlueSquare)

Royal Ascot Day One - Unbeatable Frankel?

Royal Ascot always gets off to a bang with the three opening races being Group Ones & this year the highest rated horse in the world, Frankel, is in the opener the Queen Anne Stakes. It should be a cracking day's racing & we've taken a look at all of the races to come up with a couple of value bets at big prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

 (Amour Propre is a class animal & a course & distance winner running in the King's Stand Stakes)

The King's Stand Stakes sees a big old field of 23 runners & that may be aprtly down to some of these horses wanting to avoid running in the Golden Jubilee against wonder filly, the monstrously huge Black Caviar, it makes for a really interesting race & there looks to be a bit of value available too. We're not quite sure why but Ascot seems to be a course where it helps to be a bit of a specialist, it isn't too undulating & the bends seem very standard so you'd guess that the surface must suit some types more than others & we've looked at those with a bit of course form & the one that stands out at a huge price is Henry Candy's Amour Propre. Amour Propre is a lightly raced horse for a 6 year old with just 14 runs to its name but 5 wins from those races which indicates the consistency the gelding runs at & one of those wins was a course & distance win, in softish ground, as a two year old in the Cornwallis Stakes.

Sole Power is fairly well fancied for this & at single figure prices with some firms but Amour Propre gave that one a comprehensive beating at the Curragh last August & although he was receiving five pounds that day there's no way Amour Propre should be a 40/1 shot & should be backed with a bit of confidence each way. We're big Bated Breath fans but the give underfoot probably won't play to that one's strengths & Roger Charlton's form seems to have slightly dropped off & it's difficult to know what to make of foreign raiders Joy & Fun & Little Bridge although often our horses aren't the best sprinters around so they must have a chance. Australian horse Ortensia is probably the best of the foreign contingent & if you only want to back a horse to win we'd probably lean towards that one at 5/1 but we'll happily stay with our overpriced pick.

(Side Glance could offer a value alternative bet in the Queen Anne stakes)

The Queen Anne stakes really does look like being a formality for the great Frankel, he's already beaten five of his ten rivals here with some authority & his top rated rival is Excelebration who he's beaten 4 times so far & should make it five. Therefore, assuming Frankel is going to win, the betting has to be done in the 'without Frankel' market where the very consistent & classy in his own right Excelebration leads the market at 11/10 & is a very good bet, chief rival in the market Strong Suit hasn't run since the Breeders Cup in November & O'Brien's colt is probably better anyway. Joseph O'Brien shouldn't get so excited that he actually tries to ride Excelebration to beat Frankel, he'll ignore what he does & ride his own race & that should guarantee second & if anything 'strange' happens with Frankel he'll be best placed to take advantage.

Other than Excelebration we also really like the chances of one of very favourites in Side Glance, Ascot is a specialists' track & Andrew Balding's charge is a two time course winner plus came 2nd of 28 in a very competitive heritage handicap. It seems that Side Glance takes a while to get going in the season as his first two runs were below par efforts but he came back last time & won pretty well at Epsom & beat Worthadd fair & square so it seems odd that rival is ahead of him in the betting. At 16/1 in the without Frankel market Side Glance is a very solid each way bet & we'll team that up with the already mentioned Excelebration bet to give ourselves plenty to cheer even whilst Frankel streaks away.

Selections:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Excelebration to win at 11/10 (William Hill) in without Frankel market
2.30 Royal Ascot - Side Glance each way at 16/1 (Bet365) in without Frankel market
3.05 Amour Propre each way at 40/1 (various)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Monday 18th June

We were hammered by Russia's dreadful loss on Saturday as many other punters appeared to be too but didn't let it get us down too badly & fired back with a quickfire double last night on Germany & over 2.5 goals in the Holland v Portugal game - we're back with more bets from the finely poised Group C on Monday night.

(Luka Modric will match up against the similarly technically gifted Spain midfielders)

7:45 pm - Spain vs Croatia

Group C's first game sees a strange situation where a 2-2 draw would guarantee that both Spain & croatia would qualify for the quarter final stage regardless of what Italy do against Ireland in the other game. Both sides are saying, of course, that they aren't going to play out the result & will be going for the win but some bookmakers seem very distrusting & have priced up 2-2 as short as 4/1! (Coral, William Hill & BetVictor)

Croatia & Spain both looked very good when playing Ireland although the way that Ireland have played doesn't say a lot, Spain went with an orthodox formation in their first game but looked much better when starting with a true forward in Fernando Torres last time. Torres bagged himself a couple of goals against Ireland & that should help settle him down after his horror show after coming on as a sub in the first game. We still aren't convinced that he's anywhere near the player he was 3 years ago & that does mean that unless Spain are creating chances at will they might struggle to score too many as they don't have quite the cutting edge of some of the other sides in the competition. Pique & Ramos are still trying to develop a partnership in central defence & they certainly miss Carlos Puyol, both full backs Alba & Arbeloa picked up bookings in the first game & that could mean a potential rest for them. If both wide defenders do start then Croatia will look to get at them, knowing they could be hesitant in challenges, & Darijo Srna was great against Italy regularly overlapping & getting down the right hand side.

Spain should be outright better in the centre of midfield although Croatia have their own master technician in Modric, if the game is played as competitively as both teams say it will then we will wee Croatia look to concede plenty of possession & hit on the break & they could have some success. Mario Mandzukic has eventually started to find some scoring form for his country & Nikica Jelavic's physical presence should unsettle some of the cultured Spanish players. We think the draw has a big chance of happening here & that 2-2 shouldn't be discounted, Sportingbet go a standout 7/1 but we think a small play on Croatia on the draw no bet market at 9/2 on the exchanges is the way to go. Spain looked like they could get caught at times by Italy & Croatia outplayed the same opponents in the second half last time which suggests they should be competitive, we don't want to take anything from either sides' game against Ireland.

(Italy's Claudio Marchisio could bag himself a goal against the porous Irish defence)

7:45 pm - Italy vs Republic of Ireland

In the other game Italy will be looking to stick a few goals past the already eliminated Ireland as they look to put themselves in a position to qualify, Ireland have been dreadful but the only change they're going to make for the final game is bringing back Kevin Doyle to the starting lineup, which can hardly be pushed as too much of a positive as he's been poor for club & country for a long time. Trapattoni must be very disappointed by his players, they aren't the greatest but their displays so far have been below the levels required & even dependable figures have let him down, including goalkeeper Shay Given who looks to be a fading force.

Italy look like they may drop the misfiring Balotelli, but seemingly not for his ineffective displays & instead because of a knee injury, Di Natale should now get his chance & he's speedy even at 34 & could embarrass the lumbering Irish defenders. Andrea Pirlo has been their outstanding player, as we flagged up pre-tournament, & he should be given plenty of opportunities to thread the ball through to Di Natale & Cassano. Claudio Marchisio has been getting forward at times & we reckon the 11/2 available for him to score at anytime could be a decent play, he's only one goal for Italy so far but scored ten goals for Juventus last season & they should go with a very attacking mentality here.

We were really impressed with Italy in their first game against Spain & they looked pretty good against Croatia in the first half too but then went negative in the second half & paid the price by conceding & only getting a draw. Cesare Prandelli really should have learnt his lesson for the rest of the tournament & he can start off by setting his team to go on an all out offensive against Ireland here, odds of 10/11 for Italy to win with a -1 goal handicap seem very big & we're going to back heavily, we can see a bigger margin than two goals opening up with Ireland having nothing but pride to play for.

Selections:
Croatia to beat Spain on the draw no bet market at 9/2 (Betfair) 
Italy to beat Ireland with -1 goal at 10/11 (SkyBet)
Claudio Marchisio to score at anytime at 11/2 (SkyBet)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sunday 17th June

Can the final Group B games eclipse the surprising & exciting climax in Group A last night? Bookies won the battle yesterday with Russia as short as 1.02 on betfair to qualify for the knock out rounds being beaten by Greece & put out of the tournament. But us punters can get back to winning ways with a simple double tonight...

(The magnificent Bastian Schweinsteiger looks to dominate another opposing side)

7:45 pm - Denmark vs Germany

At the Arena Lviv unbeaten Germany play Denmark who currently sit third in Group B - a draw for Germany would seal top spot but if they lose they could surprisingly bow out of the tournament if Portugal beat Holland whilst Denmark are guaranteed progression if they win but a draw will also be good enough if Portugal lose to Holland.

Germany have lived up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites with victories over Portugal & Holland. All three of Germany's goals have come from striker Mario Gomez who is putting behind him his disappointing display in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich to spearhead the German onslaught. It's no surprise he is getting the opportunities when you have the class of Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil & Thomas Muller supplying the ammunition. Behind this quartet you have the classy Bastian Schweinsteiger, two assists so far, who never gives the ball away & it's not like he plays five yard sideways passes but real decisive killer balls which split opposition defences apart & create goal scoring opportunities.

Denmark has shown a number of battling qualities in their first two games. Firstly, a superb defensive display to keep the talented Holland attack at bay in a 1-0 victory & then to comeback from 2-0 down against Portugal to draw level but unfortunately undone by conceding a late winner. They are enforced into one change with flying winger Dennis Rommedahl pulling a hamstring so Tobias Mikkelsen is likely to get the nod over Lasse Schone. Striker Nicklas Bendtner scored a brace against Portugal & has the qualities to cause the defensive duo of Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber problems in the air if the Danish players can provide need plenty of decent balls.

Germany are a step up in class & consistency compared to Portugal & Holland so look a solid bet at 8/13 as Denmark face a hugely difficult task to get the points required to make the knockout rounds.

(Can Cristiano Ronaldo spring into life & guide his side out of the group?)

7:45 pm - Portugal vs Holland

The other match in Group B looks an entertaining affair on paper as Portugal go up against Holland at the Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv. Holland have it all to do as they need to beat Portugal by two clear goals plus rely on Germany to beat Denmark to qualify whilst Portugal have a must simpler equation of just needing to better the Danes' result to progress.

Holland are having a awful tournament so far with two defeats from two & need a dramatic upturn in performance levels to make the last eight. There seems to be discontent in the ranks highlighted by Arjen Robbens display of petulance when subbed against Denmark & they will all need to be pulling in the same direction to save their tournament. Coach Bert Van Marwijk will go with a more attacking line-up & shape for this one with the likelihood of Rafael van der Vaart & Klaas-jan Huntelaar coming in for Mark van Bommel & Ibrahim Afellay as he looks for goals. The concern though is that they are weakening their midfield defensive shield to an already fragile defence highlighted by Jetro Willems struggles as they can ill afford to concede.

A 87th minute winner from Silvestre Varela saved Portugal from elimination & puts them in the box sit to grab a qualifying spot over Denmark & Holland. They showed good character to come back after letting a two goal lead slip against Denmark & put themselves in this position. A disappointment to them & the footballing public is the below par performances of Cristiano Ronaldo but you would be a very foolish person to write him off. Portugal are likely to be under the cosh in the first 20 minutes as Holland look to get off to a flyer so they will need to tighten up defensively after giving away two sloppy goals, from their point of view, against Denmark & centre back duo Pepe & Bruno Alves will need to keep a close eye on Robin van Persie who found the net with a great strike in his last match.

With both sides better in the oppositions half than their own; goals look the order of the day and the 4/5 available on over 2.5 goals looks massive.
Selections:

Germany to beat Denmark at 8/13 (General)
Over 2.5 goals in the Holland/Portugal match at 4/5 (BlueSquare/Betfair)

The above double pays just under 2/1.

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Saturday 16th June

We're into the final round of Group games now & only two teams are out of the competition so far meaning that we're going to be seeing some great games as teams fight tooth & nail for their quarter final spots. We're still searching the markets for the best value bets in each game & we bring you Group A today where hosts Poland look to not fall at the first hurdle & dark horses Russia try to top the group.

(Vaclav Pilar has two goals in two games with the Czech Republic)

7:45 pm - Czech Republic vs Poland

Czech Republic battle it out with co-hosts Poland at the Municipal Stadium, Wroclaw with the winner making the knock out rounds. Poland have two points & only victory will do for them whilst the Czechs need a win to quality but a draw might also be enough if results go their way.

After being torn apart by Russia in their first game the Czechs bounced back against Greece to claim all three points with a 2-1 victory. The damage was done in the first six minutes with goals from Petr Jiracek & Vaclac Pilar. Pilar is having an excellent tournament, scoring two goals, and is providing the sides attacking edge with striker Milan Baros struggling. A concern though is captain & playmaker Tomas Rosicky, substituted at half time against Greece, is a doubt with an achilles injury & a decision will be left right until before kick-off.

Poland have drawn their first two game 1-1 & their performances have be decent in the first half vs Greece & a second half against Russia which resulted in an equaliser but as yet they haven't been able to put it together for whole 90 minutes. They have a number of injury concerns to Lucasz Piszczek, Dariusz Dudka & Eugen Polanski & coach Franciszek Smuda has a decision to make in goal with Wojciech Szczesny returning from suspension but understudy Przemyslaw Tyton hasn't put a foot wrong in his game & a half.

Both sides will be focusing on victory & with their strengths lying in the attacking third rather than defensive disciplines this should lead to an entertaining game. Attacking players Jakub Blaszczykowski & Robert Lewandowksi for Poland & Czechs Jiracek & Pilar have all found the net already & will be licking their lips at the prospect of this game & 4/5 on both teams to score which has occurred in all Group A game looks nailed on. The first half is likely to be cagey & full of tension so get on the 6/5 on offer for most goals in the second half with one team likely to be getting desperate as their tournament hopes fade.

(Russia's attacking trio will be looking to seal top spot in Group A)

7:45 pm - Greece vs Russia

The other game in Group A is a battle between the top & bottom sides as Russia entertain Greece at the National Stadium, Warsaw. The requirement for Greece is simple; only a win will do & Russia will be looking for maximum points to guarantee top spot.

Russia will be disappointed with their second half performance against Poland where they let a goal lead slip. It was obviously two points dropped than a point gained but yet again youngster Alan Dzagoev enhanced his growing reputation with his third goal of the tournament. Dick Advocaat has a fully fit side to pick from & we would expect him to resist calls in some quarters to start Roman Pavlyuchenko over Alexander Kerzhakov. Kerzhakov has been misfiring in-front of goal but his link-up & positional play has been excellent so eventually he & the Russian side will reap the rewards & we see Pavlyuchenko as an impact substitute.

Greece again have to shuffle the pack with an injury to keeper Kostas Chalkias & the returning from suspension of Sokratis Papastathopoulos meaning Giannis Maniatis will return to the midfield at the expense of the ineffective Giorgos Fotakis. Despite their strong defensive record in qualifying; Greece have defended poorly in both games & now they have the daunting prospect of facing the excellent trio of Arshavin, Kerzhakov & tournament joint top scorer Alan Dzagoev. At the other end of the pitch they have looked far from free-scoring & only a howler from keeper Petr Cech for the Czech Republic allowed them to find the net in game two & with this is mind Russia -1 on the handicap at 21/10 looks a reasonable bet.

Selections:
Both teams to score between Poland & Czech Republic at 4/5 (Betfred/Stan James)
Most goals in the second half of Poland/Czech Republic at 6/5 (Coral)
Russia -1 on the handicap vs Greece at 21/10 (Betfred)