Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

Super Swans can ruin Bantams cup dream

We were scuppered last weekend by Brian Laudrup's very weakened team selection for his Swansea side against Liverpool & it served a reminder that you have to take in as much information up to the betting event as possible before laying down your hard worked for cash. Of course that does come with the caveat of it being relevant information, if you ever read or hear stats about how teams are 'bogey sides' or a player happens to have scored plenty of times against an opposing side then try to ignore this info that may have been gathered over several years of fixtures where personnel changes have taken place & are more to do with chance than true trends - beware 'trash stats'.

Blackburn Rovers vs Leeds United

This is an interesting game with two slightly erratic teams in terms of form who can both come up with good results & then  lose to sides you'd expect them to overpower but there's good reason to believe that Blackburn may be a bit of value against poor travellers Leeds.

(Grant Hanley can dish out some punishment for Blackburn against Leeds)

On away form only Leeds are 23rd in the Championship & they've conceded an average of nearly two goals a game (30 in 16) on the road & here they'll come up against the fearsome young forward Jordan Rhodes. Rhodes isn't top scorer this season in the Championship but he is surely the best forward & maybe the league's best player full stop - he's been lethal for years & will prey on any weaknesses in the Leeds defence. The Leeds defence really is quite young with no one aged over 26 in their regular back four & whilst keeper Paddy Kenny is experienced we've never been great fans of his & overall there's a little bit of a lack of quality back there.

Blackburn meanwhile have tried to do things about improving their defence, it's of course not been helped by various managerial changes but the replacement of Paul Robinson as the starting keeper is a sensible decision & Scott Dann & Grant Hanley are some clunking great centre backs who should thrive in this league with the right managerial team behind them. Leeds lost Robert Snodgrass to Norwich in the summer & striker Luciano Becchio followed him in the January window & it means that a little too much now rests on Ross McCormack's shoulders. The two sides are likely to have a good scrap in midfield but we can see Blackburn being more able to take the chances that arise & they should be a little more rested after playing on Saturday & Tuesday versus Leeds' Sunday & Wednesday schedule. With home advantage behind them Blackburn are the team to be on & the Lancashire side can go above their West Yorkshire rivals with a win at odds of Evens.

The League Cup Final - Bradford City vs Swansea City

Ahhhh, the romance of a cup final & the chance of some lower league underdogs coming up with a famous victory against a top flight side... nah, we're not having any of it! Swansea are a very good 'footballing' side with great passing ability & are one of the country's best at retaining possession, Bradford may have been able to give some unprepared teams a hard time at Valley Parade but they are surely lambs to the slaughter on the wide open spaces of Wembley against Laudrup's men.

(Michu can help Swansea celebrate their first major cup win on Sunday)

As we mentioned at the top we were stung by Laudrup's team selection last Sunday where he rested key players including Ashley Williams, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Wayne Routledge & super striker Michu, but it looks like it'll pay dividends with those players fresh & healthy for what has been described as the biggest game in the club's history. We personally don't see why there was any need to rest players for a game taking place a week later against opposition three leagues below, particularly as it wasn't like they were taking on one of the league's big hitting sides, but it was done & it will allow a performance here of high intensity from the start & Laudrup has indicated they will take the initiative.

It's been a pretty middling season for Bradford in the league & they'll be hoping for some more magic from their top scorer Nahki Wells & another inspired performance between the sticks from experienced keeper Matt Duke who was excellent in their quarter & semi final matches. It seems difficult though & we like Swansea on the handicap with a one goal deficit at odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes, they've managed two or more goal wins 6 times in the league this season against far better opposition & can out-pass & outplay the Bantams throughout here.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Leeds United at Evens (General)
Swansea City to beat Bradford City with -1 goal on the match handicap at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

A Tale of Two Welsh Cities

An ace bit of Champions League action in midweek will be hard to follow up but we'll be getting excited if the two top Welsh sides can bring up a double for us in televised games on Saturday early & Sunday afternoon! If you aren't doing so already you can follow us on Twitter where you'll see us happily discussing betting in general plus football, horse racing & the NFL (got my tickets to both Wembley games later this year!) by clicking the Follow button above or finding us on there @LikeBuyingMoney.

Liverpool vs Swansea City

Many a shrewd punter (+ many people with two brain cells to rub together) has worked out that even thinking about backing Liverpool, at consistently shorter prices than they should be, for the last couple of seasons is a sure way to ruin & they look a side to avoid again this weekend when they take on Swansea at Anfield after a long & fruitless European trip to Russia.

(Swansea will want to make impressive loanee Jonathan de Guzman's signing permanent)

Liverpool haven't managed to beat a team in the top half of the table this season & Swansea sit two places & a point clear of them in the league & the Welsh side have been tough to beat holding Chelsea & Man United plus beating Arsenal already. Michael Laudrup has continued the good work Brendan Rodgers started at Swansea & added in some excellent signings, particularly the revelation that is Michu, to improve them in their 2nd top flight season in a row. The Swans possession stats remain excellent with their defenders as confident as their midfield players to play the short passes that frustrate opposition sides & limit the chances they concede. Ashley Williams has been particularly key at the back & Leon Britton has continued his good work from last season in midfield whilst the loan signing de Guzman has added another attacking dimension whilst being another who is confident on the ball.

Liverpool have only won one of their last five in the league & last weekend suffered a reverse at the hands of woefully out of form West Brom. The Reds got a lot of credit for 2-2 draws against Arsenal & Man City but in both games they quickly lost leads (from 2-0 up against Arsenal) & there looks to be a bit of vulnerability creeping in defensively - they've been merely average this season when they have been pretty resolute in past years. It's interesting to see Luis Suarez chirping up about wanting new contract talks so soon after signing a long term deal & the suspicion is that he's preparing the ground for a summer move to gain Champions League football, that's not good news for them as a club trying to move forwards & his recent form isn't good news for them as a club now as he's dropped off his electrifying early season performances.

Liverpool played a full strength side in their Europa League game & even though this is a Sunday game that hands Swansea an advantage especially as their possession game tires sides anyway, odds of 8/13 & shorter for a Liverpool win look plainly wrong. The wager looks to be Swansea on the draw no bet market at odds of 15/4, they draw a lot of games so getting the insurance of your money back with a draw looks better than taking 5/1 for a win.

Cardiff City vs Bristol City

Some regular Twitter followers will know that one of our number is a big Bluebirds fan but that isn't why we think they're a great bet when they take on lowly Bristol City, in what is a bit of a local derby at home in the early game on Saturday.

(Cardiff have themselves a player who was playing for England this time last year in Frazier Campbell)

Cardiff are looking certain for automatic promotion as they're 11 points clear at the top & they've lost just once in 15 league games whilst Bristol are 2nd from bottom & have been the worst away team this season with just 11 points from 15 games. Cardiff have some added incentive to beat Bristol too as they suffered a 4-2 defeat to the South West club early on in the season & it seems unlikely they'll be so slack defensively again as they've only conceded more than once in games in 6 of 30 games this year (that's 20% folks). Ben Turner & Kevin Naughton should both be available for selection for Cardiff & that will further bolster their solid back line & it is needed as Bristol have scored a surprising amount of goals for a club so near the bottom with their somewhat gung ho approach at times. Bristol will be hoping that joint top scorer Sam Baldock can gain fitness after a calf strain otherwise they'll be looking thin on the ground up front as their other main man Steve Davies is also a slight doubt after taking a knock.

Cardiff haven't necessarily been the most exciting team in terms of scoring goals but they have been rock solid & the signing of Frazier Campbell has added a little more firepower & another option for them. Cardiff look far superior to Bristol & the prices for teams with similar levels of disparity in the Premier League would have the better team as far shorter favourites than 4/7 - take that tempting carrot of a price that Coral (not "Corals" as even the people who work there often call them!) offer.



Selections:
Swansea City draw no bet to beat Liverpool at 15/4 (Coral)
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 4/7 (Coral)

Champions League - United say bring it on Mourinho

Lovely, a little bit of the best club competition in the world this week as the Champions League returns & we've got previews of Tuesday's two games plus a fancy over two legs for the Real Madrid vs Manchester United tie.

Celtic vs Juventus

Celtic have already done magnificently well to qualify from their group containing European masters Barcelona  & they now take on another heavyweight in Juventus.

(Big man Fraser Forster will be hard to beat in Celtic's goal)

Neil Lennon's men have managed to get fired up for their Champions League games so far (they're by far & away the only big games they face nowadays thanks to Rangers demotion) & they were unbeaten at home in their group including when holding Barcelona to a nil-nil draw & they're unlikely to opt for an expansive approach here. Fraser Forster, their giant young English goalkeeper, has been in top form this season & he'll be protected by a decent defence including the outstanding left back Emilio Izaguirre. That solid base means Celtic are comfortable with teams coming on to them & they'll have to be as Juventus will have a lot of the ball thanks to Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Juve also have ex-Man United youngster Paul Pogba establishing himself as a player of real talent & potential & he'll provide the battling qualities they'll need here. Juventus however don't have a striker on their books who can strike fear into opposition defences like other top clubs in Europe do, with no one player having scored more than 10 this season & they've recently signed veteran Nicolas Anelka but he's not made an appearance yet & he may not play here.

We expect the Old Lady will come through over two legs but they are pragmatic & would not view a draw as a bad result as they'll have a lot of confidence that they can overpower the SPL side back in Turin, bearing in mind Celtic are very hard to beat at Celtic Park the 11/4 on offer about a draw is too big a price to miss.

Valencia vs Paris Saint-Germain

This has the potential to be an exciting tie with Valencia doing well in their qualifying group & having star striker Robert Soldado scoring freely this season whilst free-spending PSG have assembled a great attacking squad & have started to really leave their mark on their domestic league.

(Lucas Moura is maybe PSG's most exciting talent)

Valencia, like so many other Spanish clubs, remain in a precarious financial situation & they changed managers at the beginning of December with ex-Rafa Benitez assistant Mauricio Pellegrino taking up the head coach reins for the first time in his career. They play some nice attacking football with the option to be quie direct with Robert Soldado an excellent focal point & also play some more intricate stuff through the likes of the Brazilian Jonas & the technically sound Tino Costa. That attacking play can though sometimes come at a cost defensively & they've shipped 35 goals in La Liga so far, twice conceding 5 in a single game this season. Full backs Cissokho & Pereira are better going forwards than at defending whilst there is not a settled first choice keeper at the moment with Alves & Vicente Guaita fighting over the number one shirt.

PSG really are an interesting case, their lack of Champions League experience as a club should limit their potential according to established thinking yet they smashed their way through the group stage & have some incredibly exciting talents at the club (obviously not including David 'stunt signing' Beckham!). Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a fine footballer, & is now more appreciated here in the UK, & is ably supported in attack by Ezequiel Lavezzi who played so well for Napoli along with Edison Cavani last season. The player who most interests us though is the incredibly talented Brazilian youngster Lucas Moura who was bought before the start of the season but loaned straight back to Sao Paulo before joining up with the French club this January. Moura really is a unique talent as you'll see in the video above & this could be the game where he shows why he cost around 45 million euros.

The French league have certainly given PSG every chance of success in this one by scheduling their Ligue 1 game last Friday, just a couple of days after the international friendlies but meaning they've had a lot of time to prepare for this game. PSG are strong favourites to win over two legs so to see odds of 2/1+ for them to win here looks a little on the big side when you consider their big 15 points haul in their qualifying group, put your trust in them to put on a show of attacking brilliance & put this to bed before the return match.

Real Madrid vs Manchester United

This is a monster of a game with the two biggest club sides in the world facing off against each other & some of football's biggest personalities to boot, you'll see plenty of pictures of the Portugese pair of Jose Mourinho & the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo but this could just be the last we see of them in this season's competition...

(Cristiano Ronaldo would be the greatest in any other era - WHY MESSI??!!!)

In terms of man for man players Madrid would seemingly be able to play United off the park if reputations were all that mattered with the likes of Ronaldo, Ozil, Khedira, Alonso, Benzema, Higuain, Sergio Ramos, Modric & di Maria but it takes more than names & individuals to make a great team & Real are not quite that. There are some serious internal issues at Madrid with apparent divisions between the large Portugese contingent & the Spanish players with reports that Sergio Ramos & popular keeper Ilker Casillas had issued a warning to the club president that players would be looking to leave in the Summer if Mourinho wasn't removed. It's all led to Real being far off the pace in the league & although they can of course come up with ace performances (they should be able to with that list of talent) they have at times looked off the pace & sloppy & were just dreadful at Granada last week when losing 1-0 to a Ronaldo on goal. Madrid are without top keeper Casillas through injury for both games & that's a worry when backup Antonio Adan has only played for them 7 times & is coming up against a United strikeforce that have the highest chance conversion rate in the Premier League.

(Rafael da Silva has been in fine form this season, especially in recent games)

United are all about the team & although they clearly have outstanding individuals they are arguably greater than the sum of their parts & Ferguson continues to prove he's a shrewd tactical manager - maybe something he doesn't get credited for as much as his other skills. The key in this game is to stop Cristiano Ronaldo & don't be surprised to see someone do a man marking job but there's reason to believe he could have troubles anyway as Rafael is turning into a fine player, adding in the defensive skills & decision making to complement his tremendous attacking threat. Gary Neville giving him Sky Sports' man of the match award this Sunday was a nice touch & the ex-United right back will have done so with one eye on giving him added confidence for this game. With van Persie up front the Red Devils always pose a potent threat & Wayne Rooney & the emerging Shinji Kagawa can expose any chinks in the Madrid defence - they definitely exist. At the other end of the pitch Nemanja Vidic is getting back to full fitness & making a big difference in the heart of the defence whilst David de Gea is also improving, his shot stopping skills have never been in doubt & that could be decisive with Ronaldo's shoot on sight policy.

You'll read & hear a lot about Real being a long way off Barcelona in the league & looking very unlikely to catch them so they'll be super pumped for this Champions League game but that's too much of trying to turn a negative into a positive - they're way behind because of their inconsistency & the fact they aren't as good as the sum of their parts. We've noted previously that United are on for an enormous points haul in the league & their play has been underestimated this season, with the 2nd leg of this tie at Old Trafford that's a significant advantage & we genuinely believe they should be odds on to qualify - they aren't so instead take great odds of 6/4 for Ferguson's men to go through to the quarter finals. You likely won't get another chance to back Robin van Persie to score 1st at odds as big as 7/1 all season so take them, he's United's far likeliest scorer as Rooney will drop off the front because his work rate further back is too useful in these big European games.

Selections:
Celtic & Juventus to draw at 11/4 (Stan James)
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Valencia at 11/5 (BetVictor, Stan James & William Hill)
Manchester United to qualify over Real Madrid at 6/4 (Coral)
Robin van Persie to score first at 7/1 (Various)

Yaya can inspire City to South Coast win

Weekend football again after the midweek friendlies  & these are fixtures that make for a far better betting proposition than players running around halfheartedly & mass changes at half time. We're certainly hoping for better results than when watching the Ravens win the Super Bowl, or more accurately the 49ers lose it after a hopeless start to the game!

Southampton vs Manchester City

Southampton have been a much talked about team over the past few weeks after replacing Nigel Adkins with Spaniard Mauricio Pochettino & then putting up an impressive performance, although ultimately losing, when facing Man Utd at Old Trafford, they've got a tough game at St Mary's in the day's late kickoff when they take on Manchester City.

(City have got rid of Balotelli & have Yaya Toure back - winners on all fronts)

Both teams have been hard to beat recently with Southampton losing only 2 of their last 9 league games & City just twice all season but both have dropped points to drawn games with 6 from the Saints in that 9 game sequence & City have lost crucial momentum & ground on United with draws against QPR & Liverpool in their last two. There's good reason to think that City can get back to winning ways here though as Mancini can't afford to be cautious with wins all that matter now that they're 9 points behind the leaders & maybe their very best player, Yaya Toure, returning after Africa Cup of Nations duties.

Yaya is one of the finest midfielders in the world & can impose his will on nearly any side at will & could be coming up against Morgan Schneiderlin in this one in what looks a mismatch in favour of City man. Southampton have a few injury worries to key players with Adam Lallana a doubt & defenders Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte & Nathanial Clyne joining him. Record signing Gaston Ramires is another who may not play & with that list of injury worries it's looking like a bad time to face the current champions.

Pochettino hasn't yet eked out a win whilst in charge of Southampton & although they've looked far more resilient than when leaking goals at the start of the year we can't see anything other than a win for Manchester City & odds of 4/6 with BetVictor look fair. City have too many weapons & are able to break teams down through skill through the likes of David Silva & Sergio Aguero or through physical dominance from players like Yaya Toure & the underappreciated Edin Dzeko & they'll pounce on any defensive weakness.

Norwich City vs Fulham

Norwich against Fulham may not be the most glamorous tie of the season but this is an intriguing one & important for both as points have been thin on the ground for the two teams sat level in the table on 28 points. Norwich boss Chris Hughton also served 3 years as Jol's assistant whilst at Tottenham & the Canaries will be keen to gain revenge for a 5-0 drubbing on the opening day from their London opponents.

(Martin Jol is seeking a rare away Fulham win)

Norwich haven't won in their past 8 league games & haven't managed to score in 4 of those, with none of their players having managed more than 5 goals in all competitions & Grant Holt certainly hasn't looked so impressive as last year after failing to engineer a move away from Carrow Road. They're reasonable at the back but miss John Ruddy in goal (long term injury) & have injury concerns about usual starters Alex Tettey & Anthony Pilkington.

Fulham rarely pick up wins in away games & they've stuttered after a great start to the season when they won 5 of 9 but the signs have been a bit better in recent games with their only losses in their last 5 league games coming against the Manchester sides whilst gaining wins away at West Brom &  at home against West Ham. They showed a lot of resistance last week against Man Utd, going down 1-0 to a late Rooney goal & they may have star player Dimitar Berbatov back for this after injury. Jol will also have found a bit of time to work with his January loan signings, of whom Urby Emanuelson & Emmanuel Frimpong look like they could be useful. Frimpong will certainly add a much needed bit of bite to the Fulham midfield & that could prove the area that they can better their hosts in this one.

Backing Fulham on the road is usually a sure way to the poor house but there have been encouraging signs in recent games whilst Norwich's form has slumped & they look bereft of attacking ideas, take the Cottagers to win at nice odds of 23/10. Checking the team sheets is advised in this game as Fulham did have more players on international duty, we jut think they've got a bit more going for them than Norwich who seem to be lacking in quality & confidence.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Southampton at 4/6 (BetVictor)
Fulham to beat Norwich at 23/10 (BetVictor)

Super Bowl XLVII - Super San Francisco can batter Baltimore

This year's excellent NFL season comes to a head with an intriguing & exciting match-up between two teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers as John's Baltimore Ravens represent the AFC & Jim's San Francisco 49ers come in as NFC champions. Both teams have plenty going for them as you would expect for sides that have reached this stage, we're taking a look at the strengths & weaknesses of both teams as we seek out the value from the mass of betting markets available.

Of course we'll miss the NFL action from a sporting & betting perspective (regular followers will have noted regular profitable weekends through the season) but you can keep up with all our other bets including the English football, horse racing (including Cheltenham Festival) & other bets by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button above.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

(The 49ers Colin Kaepernick aims to keep his dream story going in the Super Bowl)

The Ravens have come through an incredibly tough post-season schedule by winning road games against the Super Bowl favourites at the time Denver Broncos then New England Patriots & that entitles them to respect as on paper this is just as tough but no more so than those games at Mile High  Foxboro. Their regular season form was less impressive with not an overly tough schedule, they lost only two of their first 11 but then limped home with just one win in 5 & have done well to rally as they looked all out of steam. The return of their inspirational, & somewhat controversial, linebacker & leader Ray Lewis for the playoffs has clearly given them a lift & having him & Terrell Suggs on the field has improved them defensively. It has however been the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco that has most impressed with him making great decisions all though the playoffs with 8 touchdowns thrown & zero interceptions. We're not big Flacco fans here as we're unsure he does enough considering the receiver talent he has to aim for but he's been great in recent games with Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith the beneficiaries with touchdowns & receptions.

Running back Ray Rice was as consistent as ever this year but with Flacco's recent play & the emergence of Bernard Pierce as a backup he's maybe not quite as key as he has been in previous seasons & that's maybe for the best as the 49ers are notoriously tough to run against & opposition teams gained just 94.2 yards per game on the ground against them on average. The 49ers are rock solid defensively & have been for some time now but this season with the addition of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, after Alex Smith missed out a couple of games with injury, they've become an exciting offensive force. Kaepernick has added in the best qualities that many of the college quarterbacks coming into the NFL have with his ability to take off & make plays with his feet rather than just sit in the pocket & pass.

(Ray Lewis's 16 year reign of defensive terror comes to an end this Sunday)

Kaepernick is hardly a slouch though when it comes to passing with his 8.3 yards per completion being a league high for a passer with more than 50 attempts, it's his running ability & the all round running threat of the team that sets up those big passing plays. Michael Crabtree is the main man at receiver for the 49ers & he's been great in the playoffs whilst Vernon Davis eventually came to life in last week's win against the Falcons with 5 receptions, 106 yards & a touchdown. We love Vernon here at Like Buying Money & would love to see him with a big game although his odds for scoring are a little too short for us, Frank Gore looks a better alternative & odds of 7/1 for him to get the first touchdown look big, he's scored consistently through the season & bagged 3 TDs over his last two games vs Green Bay & Atlanta. The 49ers don't have the receiver options that the Ravens do but with Baltimore not having a dominating cornerback they may get away with it & the veteran Randy Moss could pop up as he has done before in many a big game.

On defense the 49ers are impeccable, ranking 4th against the pass & run & conceding just 17.1 points per game during the regular season & there's no reason to think that high level of performance should drop here with NaVorro Bowman & Patrick Willis's all-action games being a key component of the league's best front 7. In the secondary San Francisco aren't quite so dominant but their pass ruch makes up for it making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find the space to pass effectively & Flacco hasn't necessarily got the evasiveness of someone like the Steelers' Ben Roethelisberger. The 49ers can stifle the Ravens with their defense, pound them with their running game & use the run plus Kaepernick's ability to take off to set up the big passing plays & this looks like proving one game too many for John Harbaugh's men.

The game takes place at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints, & the 49ers already have a victory here this season - that can help inspire them to a convincing victory over the Ravens who may have used up all of their post-season luck & performance with two big underdog victories already. Back the San Francisco 49ers to show why they are feared by every team & for them to cover a makeable -3.5 handicap spread at odds of 20/21.

(Linebacker Aldon Smith is a live outsider at 66/1 for the MVP award)

The Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) award is always a big betting heat & with the dominance of quarterbacks getting the prize it's no surprise to see Kaepernick & Flacco as the 1st & 2nd favourites at 6/4 & 3/1. As we feel the 49ers are going to win we have to go with Kaepernick as the award has only once not gone to a player on the winning team & that was 42 years ago but for a small wager it may be worth getting on young linebacker Aldon Smith at huge odds of 66/1 to spring a shock. Smith is a veritable 'sack monster' who gained 19.5 sacks in the regular season to sit behind only the incredible J.J. Watt & he got himself 5.5 in one game vs the Bears, he's been quiet on the sacks front in his last few games but we think he could come to life on the big stage & terrorise Joe Flacco if given the chance. Ray Lewis would be a sentimental choice (for some at least...) for the award in his final game after such an illustrious career but the odds available (12/1 at best & shorter in general) are very short for a player in his position.

Selections:
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with -3.5 points at 20/21 (William Hill & SportingBet)
Colin Kaepernick to win Super Bowl MVP award at 6/4 (William Hill)
Aldon Smith to win Super Bowl MVP award at 66/1 (SportingBet, Stan James & BetVictor)
Frank Gore to score first touchdown at 7/1 (Various)