Goals to fly in for Swans & Magpies

Last Sunday was a good one for punters as Swansea won the League Cup in easy fashion & showed the odds available (as big as 4/9 against a side 3 leagues below) were just plain wrong - it's rare that happens though & it's normally harder work to find value, we're back on the trail this weekend & have a couple of selections for you.

Remember Cheltenham Festival is just a week or so around the corner & we'll be bringing you a blog & bets on each of the days as we get into the swing of things for jump racing's biggest week of the year! We'll be asking for your very best bets of the festival over the next week for a special followers' blog so if you aren't already make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney to join in - either find us there or click the Follow button above. Start sending us your best bets along with reason & the hashtag #LikeBuyingMoney & we'll include.

Swansea City vs Newcastle United

Swansea go back to the Liberty Stadium as conquering heroes after winning the League Cup at Wembley this past Sunday but they face a far higher calibre of opposition in a resurgent Newcastle United side whose form has seen a dramatic upswing after their transfer dealings in the January transfer window.

(Right back Mathieu Debuchy looks a quality signing for the Magpies)

Moussa Sissoko has been the signing who's made the most eye-catching start to his St James Park career with 3 league goals already & he's also helping to bring the best out of striker Papiss Cisse who can blow hot & cold. Although Sissoko has been the star new signing so far Gouffran has also added another dimension up front & Mathieu Debuchy is real football playing right back & he's been important in bringing about 3 wins in their last 4, only losing to in form Spurs in that sequence. The games have all been high scoring too with 3, 5, 3 & 6 goals as Alan Pardew seems to have recognised his players are far more comfortable in attack than defence, they have a nice mix of physically gifted players & technical maestros to think they could make a decent side & they'll have enough to worry Swansea.

(Swansea will want to use their League Cup win as a platform to build on)

Swansea's success in the League Cup was great for them, pre-game we suggested the final was a formality & it worked out like that, but it is testament to Michael Laudrup & the club that they took the competition seriously & were deserved victors. They need to carry that feel-good factor through for the rest of the season as the higher up the table they finish the more prize money they'll receive & the more attractive a proposition they'll be to potential signings (& their coveted crop of current players!). They'll surely play a stronger team than when up against Liverpool two weeks back & they've got the players in their first eleven to compete against anyone (the squad as a whole needs strengthening though), Michu will be looking for his 16th league goal of the season & Nathan Dyer will surely still be pumped up from his brace in the final. If Swansea do concede & fall behind there's no way their fans will allow them to be passive & accept defeat so we can see a high tempo game on the cards.

The home fans will be in full voice for the Welsh side & that could mean that they play with a little more adrenaline than usual which could just maybe set this up to be a stormer, there have been 24 goals in their last 7 home league games & Newcastle have also looked incisive in recent games so 4/5 about over 2.5 goals looks a decent punt.

Morecambe vs Rochdale

Down in League Two, Morecambe entertain Rochdale at the Globe Arena. Morecambe are in 10th place currently still have a faint outside chance of a play-off place whilst are down in 15th position.

 (Morecambe's Jack Redshaw will be looking to keep up his better than 1 goal in 2 scoring ratio)

Morecambe suffered a 3-2 defeat to in-form Burton Albion on Tuesday night but after conceding soft goals they fought back strongly after the introduction of Ryan Williams, Lewis Alessandra & Jack Redshaw to score two goals in the last ten minutes & we would expect the impressive trio to start this weekend. Sadly it put an end of a run of seven points in their last three games including an impressive 1-0 away victory at promotion chasing Port Vale. They have only suffered four defeats at home all season, in 17 matches, & they have a decent record against sides who are lower than them in the league (W6, D5 & L1).

Visitors Rochdale suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at home against Accrington Stanley & it's been typical of their recent form since the turn of the year where have only won once & suffered five defeats. On the road they have struggled all season & they have failed to pick up any points in five of their last eight away games. They are leaky on the road & have conceded on average two goals per game which means results are always going to be hard to come by.

We expect Morecambe to be too strong for a leaky Rochdale side & grab the three points which will keep their small glimmer of hope in the play-off chase at the best odds of 13/10.

Selections:
Over 2.5 goals Swansea City vs Newcastle United at 4/5 (SkyBet, Bet365 & Stan James)
Morecambe to beat Rochdale at 13/10 (SkyBet & BetVictor)

Dull Blades to outpoint Oldham

We've often said that we are no great fans of international qualifiers & friendlies (the major tournaments are great of course) so again we'll take the opportunity to try to find some value bet this weekend from the English lower leagues. We've now got plenty of form for this season available & most teams should have played a range of opponents of varying quality & styles, we're trying to make the most of this little bit of knowledge to make the most of somewhat static pricing up by the bookies.

Sheffield United vs Oldham Athletic

(Not pretty but very effective - Sheffield United's Harry Maguire)

Sheffield United are one of three still unbeaten sides in League One & host a mediocre Oldham side at Bramall Lane this Saturday. United have been pretty solid but haven't really scored as many as they would like & have ended up having to settle for too many draws, 6 from their 11 games - they've only conceded more than one goal once in the league this year in a 5-3 shootout with Bournemouth at the beginning of September. Nick Blackman, their young signing from Blackburn has been their most prolific scorer with 4 league goals but no other player has managed more than two, including Dave Kitson who is trying to secure an extension to his contract which runs through to the end of December.

Not scoring enough goals has also been Oldham's problem with just 10 in 10 & their top scorer, Matt Derbyshire, with three is also an ex-Blackburn player, they've also been pretty steady at the back but where Sheffield United have gained draws they have instead fallen to losses explaining the 9 point gap between the two sides. Jean-Yves Mvoto has been a rock at the back for the Latics & you can see why he was on the books at PSG & Sunderland for some time. Harry Maguire would be the Blades' equivalent player & the 19 year old centre back surely has a top flight future if he continues to improve.

With just 20 goals in Oldham's ten games & 24 in Sheffield United's 11 (inflated because of the 8 goals in the aforementioned Bournemouth game) it seems odd that under 2.5 goals is a bigger price than overs & should be taken in what could be an edgy little encounter. Sheffield United may just edge this but it will likely be close so taking 1-0 at 6/1 could be a value bet as three of their games have already ended up with the same scoreline in their favour.

Rochdale vs Morecambe

Down in League Two, Rochdale host Morecambe at Spotland. Rochdale currently sit in 5th spot with 19 points whilst Morecambe are a lowly 17th place after eleven league games.

 

(Rochdale boss John Coleman was bemused by their poor start but has them playing nicely now)

Rochdale had a poor start to the season & only collected five points from their opening five league fixtures including defeats to Torquay & Burton. Since then manager John Coleman has rallied the troops & embarked in the league a six match unbeaten run. They have won four of these matches with the latest coming last weekend in a 3-2 victory away to Accrington Stanley. Unfortunately striker Bobby Grant is still suspended for this one after his reckless dismissal against Bradford but they still have a potent strike force in the evergreen Dele Adebola & Ashley Grimes who have bagged seven goals between them.

Morecambe have been inconsistent all season with five defeats & only three victories in their eleven games so far, they have picked up four points in their last two games but these have both come at home & that's after four defeats from five. In their last two games on the road Morecambe have come away empty handed after resounding defeats were inflicted by Bradford City (3-1) & Cheltenham Town (2-0).

We expect Rochdale to continue their fine form at the expense of an inconsistent Morecambe side at the best price of evens with William Hill.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in Sheffield United vs Oldham Athletic game at Evens (BetVictor)
Sheffield United to beat Oldham Athletic 1-0 (Bet365, Betfred & William Hill)
Rochdale to beat Morecambe at evens (William Hill)