Liverpool vs Swansea City
Many a shrewd punter (+ many people with two brain cells to rub together) has worked out that even thinking about backing Liverpool, at consistently shorter prices than they should be, for the last couple of seasons is a sure way to ruin & they look a side to avoid again this weekend when they take on Swansea at Anfield after a long & fruitless European trip to Russia.
(Swansea will want to make impressive loanee Jonathan de Guzman's signing permanent)
Liverpool haven't managed to beat a team in the top half of the table this season & Swansea sit two places & a point clear of them in the league & the Welsh side have been tough to beat holding Chelsea & Man United plus beating Arsenal already. Michael Laudrup has continued the good work Brendan Rodgers started at Swansea & added in some excellent signings, particularly the revelation that is Michu, to improve them in their 2nd top flight season in a row. The Swans possession stats remain excellent with their defenders as confident as their midfield players to play the short passes that frustrate opposition sides & limit the chances they concede. Ashley Williams has been particularly key at the back & Leon Britton has continued his good work from last season in midfield whilst the loan signing de Guzman has added another attacking dimension whilst being another who is confident on the ball.
Liverpool have only won one of their last five in the league & last weekend suffered a reverse at the hands of woefully out of form West Brom. The Reds got a lot of credit for 2-2 draws against Arsenal & Man City but in both games they quickly lost leads (from 2-0 up against Arsenal) & there looks to be a bit of vulnerability creeping in defensively - they've been merely average this season when they have been pretty resolute in past years. It's interesting to see Luis Suarez chirping up about wanting new contract talks so soon after signing a long term deal & the suspicion is that he's preparing the ground for a summer move to gain Champions League football, that's not good news for them as a club trying to move forwards & his recent form isn't good news for them as a club now as he's dropped off his electrifying early season performances.
Liverpool played a full strength side in their Europa League game & even though this is a Sunday game that hands Swansea an advantage especially as their possession game tires sides anyway, odds of 8/13 & shorter for a Liverpool win look plainly wrong. The wager looks to be Swansea on the draw no bet market at odds of 15/4, they draw a lot of games so getting the insurance of your money back with a draw looks better than taking 5/1 for a win.
Cardiff City vs Bristol City
Some regular Twitter followers will know that one of our number is a big Bluebirds fan but that isn't why we think they're a great bet when they take on lowly Bristol City, in what is a bit of a local derby at home in the early game on Saturday.
(Cardiff have themselves a player who was playing for England this time last year in Frazier Campbell)
Cardiff are looking certain for automatic promotion as they're 11 points clear at the top & they've lost just once in 15 league games whilst Bristol are 2nd from bottom & have been the worst away team this season with just 11 points from 15 games. Cardiff have some added incentive to beat Bristol too as they suffered a 4-2 defeat to the South West club early on in the season & it seems unlikely they'll be so slack defensively again as they've only conceded more than once in games in 6 of 30 games this year (that's 20% folks). Ben Turner & Kevin Naughton should both be available for selection for Cardiff & that will further bolster their solid back line & it is needed as Bristol have scored a surprising amount of goals for a club so near the bottom with their somewhat gung ho approach at times. Bristol will be hoping that joint top scorer Sam Baldock can gain fitness after a calf strain otherwise they'll be looking thin on the ground up front as their other main man Steve Davies is also a slight doubt after taking a knock.
Cardiff haven't necessarily been the most exciting team in terms of scoring goals but they have been rock solid & the signing of Frazier Campbell has added a little more firepower & another option for them. Cardiff look far superior to Bristol & the prices for teams with similar levels of disparity in the Premier League would have the better team as far shorter favourites than 4/7 - take that tempting carrot of a price that Coral (not "Corals" as even the people who work there often call them!) offer.
Selections:
Swansea City draw no bet to beat Liverpool at 15/4 (Coral)
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City at 4/7 (Coral)
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