ATP Tour Finals - Murray can shine in O2 Arena

The gruelling mens tennis season comes to a climax with the ATP World Tour Finals in London contested by the top eight ranked players in the world & this year it looks like the top eight really are the players you'd pick as the best without looking at the rankings. Of course the 'big four' are here with world number one Novak Djokovic facing off against Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray & Roger Federer. The supporting cast isn't so bad either with the ultra fit David Ferrer, powerful & entertaining Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, hard-hitting all rounder Thomas Berdych & super server Mardy Fish from the United States. The set up of the tournament with the round robin group element before the semi finals means that players need to be fit & mentally tough as they may have to face an opponent who's already defeated them earlier in the tournament. We're looking at the chances of the contenders & picking who we think has the best chance at the odds available.

It's only right to start with Novak Djokovic who has had one of the greatest ever years of any tennis player with three grand slam victories & 64 victories & just 4 losses, it's particularly impressive as this is an era with huge depth in the men's game but it may be that he's feeling the effects of progressing so far in so many tournaments. He got knocked out of the Swiss Indoors at the start of the month by world number 183 Kei Nishikori & had to retire when facing Murray in the final of the Western & Southern Open in September. If Djokovic is fully fit & ready to go for this he could make the 9/2 available look very silly but we're not keen on taking the risk with the format going against him.

(Big serving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get through Group B at the O2 Arena)

Rafael Nadal is 4th favourite for the tournament & the world number two is a dominant force when on his game but he's only made the final of this season finale once, last year when he lost in 3 sets to Roger Federer, he's a general price of 5/1 but 6/1 can be found. The odds available for Nadal don't appeal, especially as Group B also contains old rival Federer & Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who recently met each other in the final of the Paris Masters showing them to be in good form. That was just the 2nd Masters Series final for Tsonga & although he lost to Federer he's an awkward opponent for anyone to face & the hard courts are definitely his favoured service, 10 of the 11 finals he's made over his career have been on hard courts & we can see him progressing through the group stage at Nadal's expense & odds of 16/1 for the win are certainly tempting but the best bet is for Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8.

Roger Federer has fallen to 4th in the world rankings & there is a train of thought that he's on an inexorable slide but Federer himself will be aiming for more grand slam titles over the next few years & making a final, two semis & a quarter final this year in the majors isn't bad work. Federer's won year-end championships 5 times including last year here in London & it's easy to see why the bookmakers have made him favourite at a general price of 15/8 with Boylesports going a standout 21/10. We think that Federer should progress as winner of his group as he's shown he has the beating of Tsonga recently & on a hard court surface he has an edge over arch rival Nadal & he could go all the way to the final but may find the home boy Andy Murray spoiling his end of season celebrations.

(Andy Murray can pick up a big win in the end of season Championships before his Grand Slam push in 2012)

Andy Murray has consistently performed to a high level in 2011 reaching at least the semi finals in all 4 grand slams, cementing his place in the top 4 & with his win at the Shanghai Masters he moved up to number 3 past Federer. Murray will take great confidence from that win in China & it may be that this can be the tournament when he really gains the confidence needed to take into 2012 to make a real push for that elusive first grand slam win. Murray is another player who is best on hard courst as shown by his final appearances in the Australian Open & at Flushing Meadows, he's looking fit & has long moved on from the endurance problems he suffered from early in his career. Murray's fitness can help him have an edge over Djokovic in his group match, his counter-punching style means it won't be easy for Djokovic to hit the big winners he does against other players & if Murray beats him he'll expect to come out top in the group. If Murray comes wins Group A we'd expect him to be up against Tsonga who he has a great record on tour against, meeting him 5 times & winning the last 4, plus he is up against Federer in head to heads & seems to have the game to handle him. Murray hasn't fared so well against Nadal though having faced him 5 times this year & only having won the once, he can't match him on clay but this hard court gives Murray every chance especially with his great recent form. Murray still needs to improve, mainly on the mental & attacking sides of his game, if he's going to win a grand slam event but he's not far away & winning here in front of a home crowd could push him to the next level, this is a big tournament but he's ready to step up & take it & odds of 3/1 for Murray to be victorious should be taken.

Selections:
Andy Murray to win ATP Tour Finals outright at 3/1 (general)

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8 (Stan James & Ladbrokes)