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Friday 22 July 2011

Looking for Excellence at Ascot

A highly competitive card at Ascot on Saturday sees the UK's premier middle distance race and has an incredible roll call of winners including some greats such as Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Dancing Brave & Daylami. There is only one horse in this running of the race with claims to being a great and that is last year's impressive winner of the Derby & Arc Workforce. There is strong opposition today including St Nicholas Abbey who was red hot favourite for last year's 2000 Guineas only to flop and not be seen until April this year where he was beaten at long odds on by the Triumph hurdle runner up, Aidan O'Brien has coaxed him back to form winning at Chester then following up by beating Midday in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, however Midday has been arguably disappointing this season & we're happy to take him on. It can be argued through runnings against So You Think that Rewilding has the beating of Workforce but that would be too literal a reading of the form, both raced against the Australian star over 10 furlongs but Workforce much prefers this stiffer 2 furlong further distance and certainly had the measure of the Godolphin challenger in the Derby beating him by 7 and a half lengths. The rain has come and that will definitely be in Workforce's favour - expect to see Ryan Moore deliver him with a strong run some way out and a distance win.

The opener is a female Jockey's race and Ryan Moore's younger sister can make it a good start to the day for the family with a win on the talented Captain Ramius. Winner of its 1st 3 races including a Listed contest on its 3rd start back in 2008 he has since struggled running off of high handicap marks, however the last time he was successful was over 7 furlongs in good to soft off a mark of 87, today are exactly the same conditions but off a handicap mark of 86 this spells win to us - especially with a price of 12/1.

Our final selection is in the 24 runner Heritage handicap at 3.50, Ascot is a track where some horses just don't seem to perform so its good to have a course and distance winner on our side and we have that in Excellent Guest. He has form that ties in with the vastly improved top weight in the race Hawkeyethenoo and the swing in weights he receives gives him a chance to at the very least get closer. Excellent Guest is highly consistent and an each way bet at the 10/1 available with William Hill seems to be a bet with minimal risk but potential high rewards.

Selections:
Ascot 1.30 - Captain Ramius 12/1
Ascot 3.50 - Excellent Guest ew at 10/1 with William Hill
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce 11/8

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