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Friday, 15 July 2011

Lets make it a Heartbreaker

After last Saturday's spectacular fare over several courses this weekend is a more muted affair but there are still moneymaking opportunities out there. We rather hit the crossbar last weekend when our selections Modun and Bated Breath both finished 2nd to two of the most impressive performances of the Flat season thus far behind Green and Dream Ahead respectively - we intend to go all out for the win this time.

Sea of Heartbreak runs in the 2.35 Listed fillies contest at Newmarket and looks to have leading form claims. She hasn't won this year but ran up a four-timer when winning her maiden in 2009 and then in 3 subsequent runs in 2010, finally winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 85 with some ease. This year her form is rock solid with a 2nd in a Group 3 to 110 rated I'm A Dreamer, 4th in a Listed contest at Goodwood and most impressively a half length 2nd to the subsequent Group 1 Falmouth Stakes winner Timepiece. The opposition is interesting with Henry Cecil's German bred Wild Coco being unexposed and open to improvement & Never Forget being a Group 2 winner in France before joining luca Cumani this year. That said Sea of Heartbreak has run to a level form that should be good enough to win a Listed contest 3 times this year and at the prices available is crying out to be backed.

A change of track and a change of codes next where we see Market Rasen host its always excellent Summer Plate meeting. The first race at 2.05 is the Listed Handicap Summer Hurdle over 2 miles 1 furlong, it's competitive but that is reflected in the prices with many available at double figures. A common method of finding winners is to find an unexposed sort liable to improve past others but in a potentially rough race like this experience counts for a lot and we're going for the oldest of the lot in the quirky Gloucester. He loves big fields, having finished 6th and 10th in the Vincent O'Brien Hurdle at Cheltenham festival in the last 2 years, and is a strong traveller, with the front running Laterly likely to lead he should get the strong pace required. Unfortunately Gloucester often doesn't go through with its challenge but should be on offer at close to 40/1 on Betfair and is likely to trade at much shorter prices in running giving in running punters the chance to trade out for a handsome profit.

Finally the Group 3 6 furlong 2.20 race at Newbury sees the Wokingham winner Deacon Blues step up from handicap to pattern company for the first time. It is often said that the best sprint handicappers are of a similar standard to Listed & group race performers but Deacon Blues was drawn perfectly at Royal Ascot where being on the far side was key and his new 12 pounds higher mark of 107 may be flattering. Currently priced up as the favourite for this contest the value is in laying Deacon Blues for a place at odds on on Betfair - he may find solid company such as Markab & Regal Parade a bit too hot to live with.


2.35 Newmarket - Sea of Heartbreak at 13/2
2.05 Market Rasen - Gloucester ew at 25/1 and back at bigger odds on Betfair to lay in running at 10/1 & shorter
2.20 at Newbury - Lay Deacon Blues for a place at 1.8 and shorter on Betfair

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