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Thursday, 28 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood Day 4

After Frankel's stunning performance in the Sussex Stakes it is difficult for any other race to live up to those heights, of course having a substantial sum of money on a participant always helps to liven things up which is exactly what we plan to do in the 2nd race at Goodwood on Friday.

The 2nd on the card is a 7 furlong Listed race & has a horse with huge potential running for the in form Jeremy Noseda (5 winners from last 14 runners) in the form of Western Aristocrat. The Mr Greeley colt is the least exposed of the field having had just 3 runs, winning his maiden last year impressively, then winning a handicap off a mark on just his 2nd start & comeback run this season, in its last race Western Aristocrat got to within a length of Tuesday's Lennox Stakes winner Strong Suit. The form looks good enough in itself but with the promise of much more to come and perfect underfoot conditions the 13/8 currently available will not be around for long - it wouldn't surprise us to see this as the best backed horse all day tomorrow. The opposition is creditable and running at the right level in a Listed contest but Western Aristocrat could be onto bigger and better things in the near future with Goodwood's Group 2 Celebration Mile being his next entry.

We already advised Green Destiny for the Golden Mile and there's no reason to desert him after Modun's very creditable and somewhat unlucky 2nd on Tuesday. The other horses in the race are unlikely to be good enough and the bigger question is whether he can find the gaps necessary, jockey Adam Beschizza will almost certainly be under instruction to leave it late but I'd expect him to sweep down the outside rather than risk getting stuck behind horses. 11/4 is a great price when I believe that it is effectively betting that he won't find trouble in running.

Our final selection runs in the 1st and can get us off to a flyer. Indian Days wins have all come on ground described with firm in the description and will get ideal conditions here, he's a two-time course winner and has already won a Group 3 this year beating Poet in the process who then went on to run Workforce close at Sandown. Indian days was slightly disappointing the next twice but that was running in a Group 2 just two weeks later & then when given an impossible task in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. An 8 week rest will help and being by Daylami is likely to be getting better with age, the 16/1 available is insultingly large. The horse to beat is last year's winner Redwood, a horse that has run well during its Globetrotting over the last year, winning a Grade 1 at Woodbine & finishing 2nd in the Hong Kong Vase & Sheema Classic. Redwood got blitzed by Crystal Capella last time but might be sharper for that run however the prices dictate that Indian Days is the one to side with.

2.00 Goodwood - Indian Days each way at 16/1
2.35 Goodwood - Western Aristocrat at 13/8
3.10 Goodwood - Green Destiny at 11/4

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