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Monday, 25 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood Day One

Goodwood's premier meeting starts on Tuesday and promises to be the West Sussex venue's best for some time with races being hotly contested by high quality horses. There are some decent prospects running over all 5 days but we'll start with the 1st day plus an extra selection for Friday before the value disappears.

Trying to pick the winner of an 18 runner handicap may seem like a tough way to start but the favourite for the 1st race looks a hot proposition. Modun finished a very good 2nd to the highly impressive Green Destiny at York yet has only been raised 2 pounds by the handicapper, that should leave him a few pounds well in as Stoute's charge looks well up to winning Listed and minor Group contests, William Hill offer a standout 7/2 but that is unlikely to be available for long - take it! Green Destiny runs on Friday in the Golden Mile and is also available at 7/2, once Modun wins tomorrow that will disappear quickly, the form of their previous race looks rock solid and Green Destiny will be very tough to beat.

We'll attempt to follow up in the next race, the Group 3 Gordon Stakes with another of Sir Michael Stoute's horses Fiorente. It finished 2nd to Saturday's King George hero Nathaniel last time and although Nathaniel may have been slightly fortunate with Workforce veering across the track rather than going forwards that form is still mighty strong. Fiorente has the perfect pedigree for 1 mile 4 furlongs over softish ground, being by the German super stallion Monsun out of a Pilsudski mare. Slumber is next in the betting but there may be more to fear from Mark Johnston's Namibian that won over 2 miles last time and Silvestre De Sousa may try to nick it from the front, Fiorente should pick him off.

Backing trainers or jockeys blind is a sure way to the poor house, it often seems that casual punters forget that it is the horse doing the racing rather than the man - however it can make sense to back several of a trainers horses in a single day if they already have a decent chance because trainers can develop their horses to peak fitness at similar times.

2.00 Goodwood - Modun at 7/2 with William Hill
2.35 Goodwood - Fiorente at 11/10

Plus Friday in the Golden Mile - Green Destiny at 7/2

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