Semi Final Showdown at Wembley

This weekend sees some intriguing ties throughout the leagues as teams continue to try to push for titles & promotions, playoffs & European places whereas at the other end of the tables the scrap to escape relegation becomes ever more desperate. Throw into that the FA Cup semi finals & there is plenty of action to get your betting teeth into, we're trying to help with a few picks that look reasonable at the prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above, it's a good way too keep up to date with our latest posts & join in with the sport & betting conversation.

(Crewe boss Steve Davis hopes the travelling fans can inspire another 3 points)

Down in League Two, Crewe Alexandra travel to Mose Rose to face Macclesfield Town, Crewe are outside the play-off places on goal difference from Oxford United on 66 points whilst Macclesfield are in the relegation spots & three points away from safety. Crewe are unbeaten in their last 12 league games & have won five of their last seven with the latest being a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Bristol Rovers after two consecutive 1-1 draws, on the road they are unbeaten in their last five with two of them ending in victories against Gillingham & Hereford. Hosts Macclesfield are in dire form & haven't registered a win since 2011, their last 19 league games have ended with 13 defeats & six draws, with their last three games in a row lost against Gillingham, Shrewsbury Town & Port Vale. Crewe can continue their fine form at the expense of woeful Macclesfield at a too big price of 5/4 with Stan James.

(It isn't easy to work out who will line up for Chelsea v Spurs, could it be Sideshow Bob?)

The big games of the weekend come in the FA Cup semi finals, with firstly Liverpool taking on Everton & then the utterly ridiculous 6pm kickoff on Sunday between Spurs & Chelsea. We're going to keep things relatively simple here, Spurs & Liverpool have been atrocious in 2012 whereas Chelsea have improved immeasurably since sacking AVB & Everton have produced their usual late season charge. It makes no sense at all that Liverpool are favourites for their game as David Moyes was able to rest players for their midweek game just as Kenny Dalglish was, there is talk of how Liverpool are prioritising the cup competitions but Moyes prioritised it so much he fielded an understength side in the Derby match between these two at Goodison in preparation for facing Sunderland! Everton have found a cutting edge now with Nikica Jelvic up front & the play in the team has improved a lot thanks to the return of Steven Pienaar, on loan from Spurs. Harry Redknapp has already won the competition with Portsmouth & would dearly love to again but the reason Spurs edge ahead for favouritism appears to be because of the commitments to the Champions League that Chelsea have, with Barcelona to face in the coming week. It however won't be easy for Spurs to suddenly turn on the style whichever Chelsea players they face here after yet another poor result, losing at home to Norwich, they looked to be turning it around with wins against poor Bolton & a fading Swansea but maybe that was a false dawn. We're going for a double of Everton to win against Liverpool (in 90 minutes) at great odds of 85/40 & Chelsea to qualify for the final, in what could be a trappy affair at 10/11 (double with BetVictor), it pays just about £60 to a £10 stake & is worth a little investment.

(Hotshot Rene Howe has delayed knee surgery to help push Torquay into League One)

Also in League Two, Torquay United entertain Southend United at Plainmoor, this is a massive match in the race for promotion to League One with Torquay sat in 2nd & Southend in 5th but only six points behind. Torquay are in good form with five wins, two draws & only one defeat to current league leaders Swindon Town in their last eight league games, they have won three of their last four with victories over Port Vale, Barnet & Accrington Stanley. The Gulls home form has seen 12 victories out of 21 & they have scored at least one goal in 95% of these matches, lately at home they are unbeaten in their last four & have won their last two in a row. Visitors Southend are going through an inconsistent spell & have been defeated three times in their last five league games with the latest being away at Bradford City 2-0, they have a good away record this season but in recent weeks they have lost their last two in a row & four of their last six. We believe that Torquay will be too strong for Southend & put further distance between the two sides at the best price of 13/10 with William Hill.

Selections:
Crewe Alexandra to beat Macclesfield Town at 5/4 (Stan James)
Everton to beat Liverpool (in 90 mins) & Chelsea to qualify over Spurs double at odds just shy of 5/1 (BetVictor)
Torquay United to beat Southend United at 13/10 (William Hill)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 24

After week 22 our followers were making a £37.45 loss after a poor week, could they improve their form in week 23? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@grays67lufc	BTTS - Swansea/Newcastle, Sunderland/Spurs, West Brom/Blackburn & Watford/Blackpool	Five sides out of eight failed to get on the scoresheet LOSER
@Clive_Mallon	Arsenal to beat Man City	A late Mikel Arteta strike ends City’s title hopes (Arsenal @ 6/4) WINNER
@shunty555	Over 2.5 goals in Swansea vs Newcastle	Newcastle continued their impressive form with a 2-0 victory LOSER
@rigger60	Stoke to beat Wolves & Yeovil to win against Rochdale	Stoke won 2-1 after coming from behind & Yeovil easily won 3-1 (double @ 2.67 / 1) WINNER
@grahamandre	Southampton to beat Pompey 6 or 7-0 and Rickie Lambert to score a hat-trick	A 94th minute equaliser for Pompey ends the derby in a 2-2 draw LOSER
@grays67lufc	BTTS - L.Orient/Notts County, Wycombe/Carlisle, Northampton/Oxford & Burnley/Brighton	L.Orient & Brighton both failed to hit the net to put pay to this four-fold LOSER

Our followers’ had an ok week 23 & reduced their overall loss to -£37.28, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 14^th April / 15^th April:

@jfleet11 has two selections of Giles Cross to win & Sunnyhillboy e/w. Giles Cross is the best price of 23/1 with Betfair & Sunnyhillboy is the general price of 16/1.

@grays67lufc picks a treble of Cardiff, Huddersfield & Sheffield Wednesday...pays around 9/1. Cardiff travel to Barnsley, Huddersfield are away at Preston & Sheffield Wednesday have a trip to Colchester.

@grays67lufc both teams to score – Carlisle/Charlton, Rochdale/Exeter, Notts Forest/Blackpool & Spurs/Chelsea...pays around 8/1.

@grays67lufc has three for the Grand National of Ballabriggs, Organised Confusion & Shakalakaboomboom. You can get 14’s for Ballabriggs & Shakalakaboomboom and 22/1 on Betfair for Organised Confusion.

@tyrone3165 Sunderland, Swansea & West Ham is a nice treble. Sunderland host rock bottom Wolves, Swansea entertain Blackburn & West Ham have a must win against Brighton at Upton Park.

@rigger60 has a cheeky double of Shrewsbury Town (evens) to beat Rotherham & Watford (7/5) to beat Hull City. The double pays 3.80 / 1.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Cotton Mill is the Reel Deal

We had a horrible day at Aintree yesterday with Island Life unseating when having a great chance of at least a place in the Foxhunters, Kumbeshwar finishing 4th & one spot out of the places before Al Ferof let plenty of punters down with a strangely flat run. We're hoping to gain some compensation on Friday & are sticking with just one runner, Cotton Mill, a horse that let us down at Cheltenham by jinking & unshipping Denis O'Regan when travelling very well alongside the massively backed Simonside & well clear of the rest of the field. We were up at Cheltenham that day & Cotton Mill really was going as well as the winner, who ended up being one of the most impressive of the week, that isn't to say Cotton Mill would definitely have won but it's impressive form all the same. That links in with the favourite for this race as Fingal Bay beat Simonsig at Sandown in December although that race was run at a slow pace & was over 3 furlongs less than this. Fingal Bay is clearly a very high class sort (he won the Grade One Challow at 1/4!) but missed Cheltenham through injury & that has to be a slight concern with the shortish odds available here.

(Cotton Mill is taken to upset Fingal Bay in the Sefton Novices Hurdle)

Cotton Mill's trainer John Ferguson has the had the most incredible debut season, undoubtedly helped thanks to the horses he's been able to procure thanks to his former job as Shiekh Mohamed's bloodstock agent, but that doesn't take away from an outstanding 33% strike rate & a £37 profit to a level £1 staked on every one of his runners. Ferguson has kept that form up all season & his last two runners won on Monday, at odds of 11/2 with Stan James & 5/1 elsewhere it is worth taking a chance that Cotton Mill is as good as he looked at Cheltenham before ducking out, he was unbeaten in three hurdle races before that & hadn't given any indication of a wayward nature.

Selection:
4.15 Aintree - Cotton Mill at 11/2 (Stan James)

It's a Hard Knocks Island Life

(Al Ferof is a bit of a beast & can slam his rivals in the 4.50)

The national hunt season in the UK is drawing to an end & the last real big meeting of the year is here with Aintree's Grand National fixture starting with a cracking card on Thursday. We've picked out some likely types & we're mindful of the regular upsets with Cheltenham winners, it's a very different track compared to the Gloucestershire venue, that could be more prevalent this year with the soft underfoot conditions.

Hunter chases aren't usually the type of races that we like to get involved in, it's difficult to ascertain levels of form for horses that have been running in point to points & only sporadically under rules plus the amateur jockeys add another element of uncertainty but we do like the look of Island Life in the John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase at 3.40. You need a good jumper to navigate these national fences & Island Life is certainly that with just one fall in 30 runs over jumps & is in good form of late with two low grade hunter chase wins at Warwick & Hereford by decent margins. Although those last two wins came on significantly better ground than this it is difficult to believe that soft ground will prove too much of an obstacle as he's one of Turtle Island's progeny (& they are nearly all mudlarks) & has three wins previously where heavy was in the going description. Gwanako is probably the horse to beat but the value lies with Island Life at odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power who are offering 4 places & quarter the odds.

(Kumbeshwar just failing to beat another of our favourites, Zarkandar, last year here at Aintree)

Kumbeshwar only managed third when we tipped him for the final race of the Cheltenham festival with one of today's rivals, Tanks For That, finishing 7 lengths in front that day but a 5 pound swing in the weights & the fact that Kumbeshwar is a baby at 5 years old suggests he's the scope to turn that form around. Nicky Henderson was likely to have had his two horses Bellvano & Tanks For That in prime condition for the Cheltenham race as it is named after his late father & Kumbeshwar has already run really well here at Aintree where he ran Zarkandar close in a Grade One hurdle last year. Kumbeshwar's jump wins have all come when the ground has been worse than good & also won on the flat three times at Southwell & once when it was soft at Carrick so these conditions will hold no fears for Alan King's gelding. King has been in good form over the past couple of weeks with 7 winners from 33 runners & 17 of those runners finishing in the 1st three places in their races. Paul Nicholls' Edgardo Sol is another youngster & has won over course & distance back in October but has raced over hurdles for the rest of the season & doesn't look particularly well treated seeing as those hurdle runs should have preserved his chasing mark. Kumbeshwar is as tough & genuine as you like & we'll be happy to have our money down at odds of 7/1.

The last pick is easy, Al Ferof is better than his rivals in the Grade One Novices Chase at 4.50, Menorah did finish in front at Cheltenham but he did decide to rather land on a fence there rather than going over it & we've no doubts he'll turn that form around. Menorah has been a disappointing type over fences, twice failing to complete from 5 chase runs & his only two wins coming in 3 runner fields. Al Ferof's connections were already saying he needed further than two miles before he ran in the Arkle which makes it mystifying that they decided to take on the outstanding Sprinter Sacre that day. Conditions are no problem here & this will be a good preparation for Al Ferof for next year when the King George at Kempton is on the agenda. We don't see Venetia Williams' mare Pepite Rose as a threat even though she has racked up 4 wins from 29th Feb, they were basically easy races & nowhere near this kind of standard. Al Ferof should grind this lot into submission & odds of 11/10 are Like Buying Money.

Selections:
3.40 Aintree - Island Life each way at 16/1 (Paddy Power)
4.15 Aintree - Kumbeshwar at 7/1 (various)
4.50 Aintree - Al Ferof at 11/10 (various)

Rovers can pile more misery on Lacklustre Liverpool

The football just seems to keep going this week & we have had a look through this Tuesday's fixtures to come up with three bets that have a little bit of value about them. Think about this before placing your bets, how are a side that have less points than their rivals in 2012  in dreadful form 11/10 to win away yet another side that are psuhing for a title, with plenty more points & better form than their opponents 7/5 to win away? Sometimes it seems that the bookies do get it wrong & we have a duty as punters to take advantage - the results on an individual day may not come off but if you keep doing the right things you can turn a long term profit.

(Blackburn defender Grant Hanley will hope to keep Liverpool's misfiring strikers at bay)

You might not hink that it's possible that a side playing at home that have won twice as many league games in 2012 as their opponents could be 11/4 to win but that's precisely what we see as Blackburn Rovers face Liverpool at Ewood Park. To be fair it isn't difficult to have won twice as many as iverpool as they have just 2 league wins since the turn of the year & remember that they came against an absolutley dreadful Wolves side & Everton when the Toffees rested plenty of players, the Reds couldn't beat a thoroughly out of form Aston Villa at home on Saturday & facing a physical Blackburn side is not ideal just three days later. Liverpool have created chances in pretty much every game they've played but with Kuyt & Carroll at the sharp end plus Luis Suarez who doesn't seem to have packed his shooting boots along with his dribbling past 3 players at a time boots they are unlikely to start converting those chances anytime soon. Blackburn are obviously no great shakes & sit in the relegation zone but they've had 5 home wins which is as many as their rivals here & have some real quality going forward with Yakubu at the front end supported by the classy Junior Hoilett in midfield & they've looked better at the back since managing to ship out unhappy players, Ryan Nelsen & Chris Samba. Rovers held firm against champions-elect Manchester United for 80 minutes last Monday & were only stopped from scoring by some inspired David De Gea goalkeeping. Blackburn have to bounce back from a lame display against West Brom on Saturday but it's worth chancing at odds of 11/4 against this Liverpool side who look likely to finish bottom of the betting handicap table & who are looking like they could even finish in the bottom half if results aren't forthcoming & quick about it too!

(Goalscorer Ched Evans has 26 league goals & 7 in his last 5 games for Sheffield United)

In League One, Sheffield United travel to Spotland to face Rochdale, United will be looking for all three points to go back ahead of City rivals Wednesday into the second automatic promotion spot whilst Rochdale are rock bottom. United have won their last four league matches in a row & in striker Ched Evans they have a player bang in form having scored at least one in each of his last five games. The Blades are unbeaten in their last seven games & on the road they have won three of their last four with victories over Hartlepool, Notts County & Brentford. Hosts Rochdale are on the verge of relegation to League Two & have lost three of their last four league matches with the latest being a 3-1 defeat away at Yeovil Town, they've conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven games & at home they have lost two & drawn two of their last five. We expect Sheffield United at the general price of 5/6 to leapfrog above rivals Wednesday with a fifth consecutive victory at the expense of a poor Rochdale side.

(Reading's Mikele Leigertwood has 4 goals from midfield this season & 2 in the last 3)

In the Championship we see sutomatic promotion chasers Reading travel the short distance down South to face Brighton at their fantastic Falmer Stadium. Brighton are just about holding off a whole host of sides just below them for the final playoff spot but their recent form has not been great with just one win in their last 5 league games & 3 in 11, they'll be hoping that their better home form (11 wins from 20 games) will give them the advantage they'll need over red hot Reading. The Royals have won 12 of their last 14 & that has seen them rise right to the upper echelons of the league, they have a lot of attacking intent as can be seen by their 14 goals in their last 5 games & the January signing of Jason Roberts has really seemed to freshen up their front line. It won't be easy for Reading to win away here but they've recently stuck 4 in the back of the net away to Barnsley & West Ham which shows they'll come here to win & not settle for a draw which makes the odds against available a very good price. Brighton haven't been scoring enough this year with just 49 goals in their 41 games & their star striker Craig Mackail-Smith hasn't scored in the last 8 games, Reading should be able to play with freedom & odds of 7/5 for the potential champions is outstanding value.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Liverpool at 11/4 (Skybet)
Sheffield United to beat Rochdale at 5/6 (various)
Reading to beat Brighton & Hove Albion at 7/5 (various)

Blue Monday for Chelsea's men in Blue?

The Easter weekend comes to a close with a full set of football fixtures & we're trying to improve on a horrible Saturday where Southampton conceded in the 94th minute & Nottingham Forest dominated Bristol City only to lose 1-0. Stoke managed to get the win over Wolves for a bit of damage limitation & we're looking for a full set of wins today as we look through the leagues other than the ultra tough Championship including the Monday Night Football game between Fulham & Chelsea.

(Louis Dodds scored a brace against Aldershot & has 8 for the season)

 

Down in League Two Port Vale entertain Macclesfield Town at Vale Park, Port Vale are in 15th position whilst Macclesfield are in the second relegation spot & three points away from safety. Port Vale turned in an impressive performance on Good Friday to win away at Aldershot Town & get them back on track after two defeats, if you ignore their results against the top eight sides, where they haven't pick up a single win, they have 17 victories out of 27 matches & four draws against the rest of the league, at home they have picked up nine wins & won four of their last seven with one draw. Visitors Macclesfield haven't won a game since 2011, a winless streak which has seen 12 defeats & six draws in their last 18 league games, they have the worst away record in the league where they have suffered 15 defeats in 20 games & have failed to score in 60% of these matches. Macclesfield have lost their last three away games in a row & conceded eight goals in the process. Port Vale are no world beaters but they can come out victorious at odds of 19/20 against a very disappointing Macclesfield side.

(Clint Dempsey may be on the move in the Summer, until then Fulham can reap the benefits of his outstanding play)

In the evening's Premier League game Fulham host Chelsea in a game where the away side have several players with slight fitness doubts & also two massive games coming up in the next week with Spurs in the FA Cup semi final & Barcelona in the same stage of the Champions League, it's a set of circumstances that can play into the underdogs hands here. Chelsea were extremely fortunate to get the win at home against Wigan at the weekend & although their form has improved since sacking Villas Boas it probably isn't as strong as some would believe with their wins in the league coming against Stoke, Villa & Wigan - not exactly world beaters. If they are without John Terry (cracked ribs) again & Ashley Cole they will be very vulnerable at the back & that isn't ideal against a Fulham side full of attacking intent & a good home record. Clint Dempsey got another two goals at the weekend to move to 21 for the season, he was playing as a striker there but Martin Jol may have Pogrebnyak to call upon as he may be fit from an ankle injury, if he does Dempsey will drop back & that will compensate for the loss of Bryan Ruiz for the season. Fulham have won 5 of their last 8 & have already beaten Arsenal & Newcastle here, Chelsea began their complaining about their congested fixture list early & this could be a game they slip up in, at odds of 13/5 Fulham are the pick in what could be an exciting game.

(Brentford boss Uwe Rosler has his side firing on all cylinders)

 

In League One, Brentford travel to Victoria Park to play Hartlepool United, Brentford are in 8th position & three points outside of the playoff places whilst Hartlepool are in 12th. Brentford are full of confidence at the moment having won their last five league games in a row with the latest being a comfortable 3-0 victory over Bury. At home they have won their last three in a row & haven't conceded a goal after winning score lines of 3-0, 2-0 & 2-0. Hosts Hartlepool have had an up & down season & it seems to be petering out to mid-table finish, They have only picked up seven points from a possible 24 in their last eight league games & they have only scored three goals. At home Hartlepool have lost their last two in a row against Sheffield United & Oldham Athletic & they haven't won in front of the home faithful in their last four. Brentford can continue their fine recent form & get the win at the attractive price of 13/8 with William Hill.

Selections:
Port Vale to beat Macclesfield Town at 19/20 (William Hill)
Fulham to beat Chelsea at 13/5 (BetVictor)
Brentford to beat Hartlepool United at 13/8 (William Hill)