Quality Queens Park defence can keep Canaries Quiet

Hmmm, not a good few days for us on the football front with our last three selections all looking good before succumbing to time with Stoke not holding out for the draw against Man City on Staurday  then blowing their 2 goal lead against a Roger Espinoza inspired Wigan on Wednesday to add to Charlton running out of steam last weekend too. This weekend's games do however seem to have thrown up some odd prices that can be backed to give us & you an edge over the bookies & you'll see these bets below.

We use oddschecker.com to check our prices & would advise anyone else to if they're serious about finding the very best prices available - I only mention it because it also has a function showing what thee most backed bets in each market are  I was deeply surprised to see the pie chart indicating so many punters were going for the opposite of our selection in the QPR game - it seems punters love goals regardless of what the form book says!

Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City

QPR still prop up the rest of the league but they've become undeniably tough to beat under Harry Redknapp with a 1-0 win against Chelsea & 3 draws (2 against top sides) in their last 4 league games, they take on out-of-form Norwich in the early Saturday kickoff in what could be a tense affair.

(Julio Cesar is staking his claim to be the best Brazilian in the Premier League)

The bottom has somewhat fallen out of Norwich's season after they overcame a poor start to gain 6 wins & 4 draws in an undefeated 10 games from October to mid December, they've now not won in 7 & benefited from Spurs' lack of firepower in their draw with the London side on Wednesday night. Apart from a few isolated high scoring games the Canaries have been largely solid at the back & it's instead their lack of goals that has been a problem with just 25 in their 24 games & they've signed Leeds' Luciano Becchio in an effort to remedy that - we're unconvinced the Argentinian is Premier League class though.

QPR's goalscoring has become virtually non-existent with 3 in their last 7 league games & 18 for the season, injuries & indifferent form have been the reason & even though Loic Remy could prove a good signing Harry Redknapp won't sacrifice his new found defensive solidity for all-out attack as evidennced by the expensive signing of the giant Chris Samba who makes a welcome return to English football. Adel Taarabt remains the key player for the Hoops with his excellent passing range & silky skills, Chris Hughton may respond to his threat by getting defensive midfielder Alex Tettey to 'do a number' on the Moroccan.

The market to concentrate on in this game looks to be the Over/Under 2.5 goals one & with both teams already having had 13 games go under this season, including their previous meeting, the bet has to be under 2.5 goals at just a shade of odds on at 10/11. Julio Cesar has been outstanding in goal for QPR recently showing why he's gained so many caps for Brazil & he can gain another clean sheet. A small wager on QPR to nick this one 1-0 at 15/2 with BetVictor also looks worth a look.


Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United

Down in League One sees top of the table Tranmere Rovers host Carlisle United at Prenton Park. Tranmere are the team to catch currently whilst Carlisle have been struggling in recent months & have fallen to 17th place.

(Andy Robinson loves it when they rub his head)

Tranmere have won five of their last six league games after a poor spell in November & most of December, their latest victory was an impressive 2-1 away victory at 4th place Brentford & they were robbed of a potential firecracker against Swindon Town in midweek due to a frozen pitch. In these five victories they have kept three clean sheets & they are unbeaten in their last five home league games & won their last three. Rovers have however lost top scorer Jake Cassidy who ended his loan period in early January & returned to parent club Wolves, it hasn't been too much of an impediment so far but the pressure is on Andy Robinson, this could be a good game for him against the league's joint highest conceders.

Carlisle are inconsistent & have struggled all season to put a string of decent results together. They have conceded one goal or more in every single away match & if this trend continues then will find it an uphill task against a measly Tranmere defence. They have also lost their last three away games to Shrewsbury Town, Crewe Alexandra & Swindon.

Tranmere will be too strong for an average Carlisle side & can cement their pole position at the best price of 10/11 with BetVictor.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in QPR vs Norwich game at 10/11 (William Hill & Coral)
QPR to beat Norwich 1-0 at 15/2 (BetVictor)
Tranmere Rovers to beat Carlisle United at 10/11 (BetVictor)

Super Stoke can Lash Loser Latics

The weekend did not exactly do us at Like Buying Money proud with our football bets (Stoke v Man City draw & Charlton to beat Wednesday) looking good up to 80+ minutes & a trip to Cheltenham ruined betting wise when our punts on Imperial Commander (£30k matched in-running at 1/100) & The New One (£9k matched in-running at 1/50) also went down! We need a bit more than a minor rough patch to stop us though & the midweek fixtures seem to have thrown up a nice bet in a game between one of the league's toughest teams & one of the least resilient.

Stoke City vs Wigan Athletic

OK, so Stoke didn't quite last the full 90 minutes on Saturday against Premier League champions Manchester City but they have the chance to redeem themselves to us & followers by taking advantage of arguably the easiest fixture in the league season - a home fixture against Wigan.

(Wigan wil without Ivory Coast star Arouna Kone)

Wigan's claims for having a chance in this one must rest mainly on the fact that they are rested after fielding a weakened team in their FA Cup game against non-league Macclesfield but their league form has been poor & they have surely used up their unlikely relegation escapes in recent seasons. Wigan have conceded the second most goals so far, behind only Aston Villa who conceded 8 in one game & they've won just once in 10 with that coming against the aforementioned hapless Villa. Arouna Kone has been reasonable up front for Wigan but he's on Africa Cup of Nations duty & it's hard to see where their goals will come from against a Stoke outfit that have kept 9 clean sheets on the season.

(Jon Walters can trouble the Wigan defence instead of his own)

Asmir Begovic will return to goal for the Potters after sitting out Saturday's fixture & he will be tough to beat even if Wigan do manage to create many chances, that should mean the attacking players can play with freedom & confidence. Jon Walters remains a key player for Stoke even if he garnered unwanted attention for two own goals & a penalty miss against Chelsea & he could find success against the back three formation that Martinez likes his defence to play. Goalscoring has certainly been Stoke's problem with just 22 on the season but 14 have come at home suggesting away fixtures are more of a problem & even if Wigan put players behind the ball they'll remain vulnerable against what will likely be multiple set pieces for the home team.

It's tempting to take the odds on the under 2.5 goals scoreline but a Stoke win has to be the bet, they've only lost at home to Chelsea (league) & Man City (cup) on the season with the Brittania remaining formidable - back them at 21/20 with several firms.

Selection:
Stoke City to beat Wigan Athletic at 21/20 (Various)

Potters can ensure City get stuck in mud on way to cup progress

Two out of two wins for us on the football last week (the NFL was not so successful though) with nice wins for Doncaster & Cardiff at decent odds. We've another two selections at odds against for matches from this Saturday's fixture list including a cup match featuring the finalists from 2011. As always you can keep up to date with our latest thoughts & blog updates by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above, our Super Bowl preview will be up soon & we're continuing to provide the winners with regularity.

Stoke City vs Manchester City

In the early FA Cup game of the weekend (12.45 kickoff) overall joint favourites for the cup Man City travel to take on Stoke at the fortress like Britannia Stadium but this is a significant hurdle on the path to Wembley for the Citizens & we've a feeling their odds on status for this one looks a false price.

(Asmir Begovic is a top keeper & can help keep the starry City strikers at bay)

Stoke have encountered a rare rough patch of form in the league recently with three successive losses but those games were far from easy, starting off with a 3-0 loss to today's rivals City at the Etihad, then their only home loss of the season in 90 minutes when two own goals & a missed penalty from Jon Walters contributed to a 4-0 defeat by Chelsea. Last weekend they fell foul to the slick of passing & high in confidence Swansea, they'll feel far better back at home & with the chance to gain vengeance for their 2011 cup final loss to City.
Before this sticky patch Stoke had really been going great guns with 5 wins & 5 draws in an unbeaten league run from early November & even with their lack of goals (22 in 23 games) they remain hard to beat & are the Premier League's draw kings with 11 so far (48%).

The Potters have struggled in recent weeks with injuries at the full back positions & to cover that weakness they may look to pack the midfield & frustrate City who are without key player Yaya Toure & even though they've won 4 in a row in the league that run may be a little less impressive than it looks. The 3-0 win against Stoke was certainly a good result but City looked porous when beating Norwich 4-3, their 2-0 win against Arsenal came after Koscielny was sent off early on & the 2-0 win last week came against Fulham who are in free-fall & are dreadful on the road. You can of course only beat what's put in front of you but we recall that Mancini's men were frustrated & beaten at Sunderland on Boxing Day & had laboured to a last gasp win against Reading before that. Mancini may switch things around in terms of team selection but any potential of weakening would be a mistake against a resolute Stoke side, the best odds look to be for a draw at odds of 11/4.

Charlton Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday

In the Championship we see two in-form teams in Charlton & Sheffield Wednesday at the Valley but we reckon this will be the end (at least temporarily) for Wednesday's ascent away from the relegation zone as Chris Powell's men look to turnaround their loss at Hillsborough a month ago.

(Yann Kermorgant can help Charlton dominate the Wednesday midfield)

Charlton have picked up three wins in a row (all by the odd goal) & look to be well clear of the drop zone & could even make a surprise push for a playoff place in the congested division. The Addicks have carried a bit more of an attacking threat in recent games with the goals shared around various players, it's a shame that last year's regular scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips has been unable to reproduce his form at this higher level. Charlton's home form hasn't really been that impressive this year but they have been beaten the leaders Cardiff (in a dramatic 5-4) & 2nd place Leicester so victory agaisnt 4th from bottom Wednesday should be within their scope.

Wednesday had looked like they may be fighting a lost cause up until early December - they'd gone on a losing run of 7 which closely followed a previous run of 7 losses & 2 draws but they've recently been far better with just one loss in 7 (2-0 to Burnley). It's difficult to ascertain where this improvement has come from as new signings haven't happened & look unlikely to do so without other players moving on. Llera remains a rock at the centre of their defence & Antonio's form has certainly seen an upswing with his pace a constant menace even though his final product remains inconsistent. They may have just run into some flaky teams recently (Bolton are chief culprits in this category) & we can't leave Charlton alone at odds bigger than evens, take odds of 11/8 for a home win.

Selections:
Stoke City vs Manchester City to draw at 11/4 (Various)
Charlton Athletic to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 11/8 (BetVictor)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

Table Toppers to Topple Medicore Midtablers

We stayed away from last Saturday's football fixtures & it was just as well as we wouldn't have found much joy from a tough set of fixtures. This week we've a couple of bets on teams riding high in the Championship & League One & they could form a healthy double at some prices we think are a little on the large side.

Blackpool vs Cardiff City

In the Championship, clear leaders Cardiff City travel to Bloomfield Road to play Blackpool in the late kickoff televised on Sky Sports. Cardiff have an eight point lead & have 23 more points than managerless Blackpool who sit below mid-table in 15th.

(Captain Mark Hudson has been solid all season for Cardiff)

Cardiff will be disappointed with only a point last weekend against a resurgent Ipswich Town but they have taken 13 points from a possible 15 in their last five league games. In these games they've kept four clean sheets & the solid Mark Hudson & Ben Turner have been excellent, the Bluebirds had their difficulties on the road earlier in the season but they seem to have put them to bed recently with four wins & one draw with impressive victories over Blackburn Rovers & Leicester City. Peter Whittingham has always seemed a cut above most players in the Championship & supplies the vision & ammunition for others whilst the dependable Icelandic Aron Gunnarsson has popped up with some important goals.

Blackpool are looking for their 3rd manager of the season with Ian Holloway & strangely Michael Appleton moving onto Crystal Palace & Blackburn respectively. With all this chopping & changing results have suffered in recent weeks with three defeats & two draws in their last five league games. They still have the outstanding Tom Ince but it seems likely he will end up in the Premiership before January ends which only adds to the uncertainty & on Tuesday night they had to endure 120 minutes against a weakened Fulham side & the deflation of an 90 minute equaliser leading to a 2-1 extra time defeat.

Cardiff will look to take advantage of this uncertain period for Blackpool & cement their healthy lead at the summit at the attractive price of 9/5.

Doncaster Rovers vs Leyton Orient

We've been cheering on Doncaster with our money in several games recently & the grand old club can continue their superb recent form under newly appointed manager Brian Flynn as they take on Leyton Orient at the Keepmoat.

(Kyle Bennett & Tommy Spurr have contributed to some ace wingplay for Doncaster Rovers)

Doncaster have risen to 2nd place in League One & that has come on the back of a tremendous run of form where they've won 8 of their last 11 games & lost just once in that time with several late goals helping out - that's a sign of a well-drilled side with a good attitude. Of course being well-drilled is one thing but Doncaster also have a lot of quality about them not least down the wings with the full backs Tommy Spurr & Paul Quinn giving good support to Kyle Bennett & maybe the division's outstanding player David Cotterill. Cotterill has been prolific in terms of scoring goals & setting them up too & it's unsurprising when you think he was at Premier League side Swansea at this time last year.

Leyton Orient had a nice little run through November & early December where they won 5 in a row but they've tasted victory just once in their last 4 & have already been beaten 2-0 by Doncaster in the reverse fixture. The O's are the 5th lowest scorers in the league & come up against a decent Doncaster defence, their forwards Dave Mooney & veteran Kevin Lisbie aren't convincing for us & we reckon they'll be kept at bay here. 10/11 for Doncaster to win against an average Leyton Orient side looks a steal & should be backed, the loss of Dean Saunders as manager shouldn't hold back their promotion charge.

Selections:
Cardiff City to beat Blackpool at 9/5 (Various)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Leyton Orient at 10/11 (Various)

NFL Divisional Round - Broncos to serve Ravens up a dish of Deja Vu

We're onto the divisional round of the NFL playoffs & the two Saturday games are previewed here as Denver & San Francisco look to home field advantage & a rested squad whilst Baltimore & Green Bay look to carry the momentum of their wins last week. In last week's matches we were just middling, getting the Bengals @ Texans unders & Baltimore to win HT/FT fairly easily but having quarterback injury let us down in the other games (Christian Ponder & RGIII), hopefully injuries won't be as key in this week's games.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

These two sides meet again after facing off in week 15, in that game Denver basically humiliated Baltimore in their own stadium going up 34-3 in the 4th quarter before the Ravens responded with 10 consolation points late on - this will be even tougher as the Ravens try to overcome the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

(Broncos heart throb Eric Decker looks overpriced to haul in the first touchdown)

The Broncos now have outright favouritism for the Super Bowl with most firms & it's easy to see why as they've had a tremendous run winning their final 11 games, often impressively, after losing 3 of their first 5, admittedly to some very smart opponents. Peyton Manning has conclusively proved any doubters wrong, showing that he is fully recovered from the major surgery undertaken last year, now including the arm strength that understandably took a couple of games to get back. This is a side that got to the playoffs in 2011 (& won a game!) with Tim Tebow under centre - to have one of the very best quarterbacks of all time instead it now seems blindingly obvious that we should all have been backing Denver at the start of the season! The Broncos match up their outstanding quarterback play with some explosive defense that ranks 2nd overall in yards conceded per game & is outstanding against both the run & pass (ranking 3rd against each). They have great players through the defense with Champ Bailey one of the all time great cornerbacks, Von Miller is arguably the best defender in the league & Elvis Dumervil is a great defensive end, they look sure to be able to deal with anything the Ravens throw at them.

We were keen on the Ravens to beat Indianapolis last week but that was because the Colts were some way short of being as good as their win record suggested, this is a different proposition & it seems difficult to see how they'll keep pace with a team they were so outplayed by just a month ago. It looks like they will be prepared to throw some bombs downfield though if last week's game is anything to go by where Anquan Boldin gained 145 receiving yards, all coming in the 2nd half of the game, those deep passes are what Joe Flacco does best as he undeniably has a strong arm although he could look instead to the younger Torrey Smith this time. The Ravens' vaunted defense hasn't been as strong this year, with injuries & the ravages of age taking their toll, this looks likely to be legendary linebacker Ray Lewis's final game, he did well on comeback last week but may feel the effects of being out from week 6 onwards in this game. Ray Rice & young backup running back Bernard Pierce may be in the game plan to begin with but if the Ravens fall behind they'll be forced to pass & we can see Flacco getting sacked & throwing multiple interceptions as the Broncos force home a crushing win. Take Denver with -9 points to win this game, they beat the Ravens by 17 in Baltimore & can at least match that here. Looking at the touchdown scorers it looks like Broncos receiver Eric Decker is overpriced at 8/1 to get the first TD, he's their leading touchdown scorer with 13 & bagged himself 5 in the last 3 games so is red hot at the moment.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

This game is a rematch of these two teams first game of the season but takes place at the 49ers' Candlestick Park rather than Green Bay's famous Lambeau Field, these are arguably the NFC's top two teams so promises to be a great contest.

(Colin Kaepernick could be on the run for the 49ers)

The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game last time round only to end up just pipped to getting to the Super Bowl by the New York Giants, they'll be hoping for better this time around & need to start off by beating the Packers but they have somewhat controversially ditched quarterback Alex Smith for the still relatively untested Colin Kaepernick who now faces his biggest challenge by some margin. Kaepernick came into the side in week 10 after Smith was concussed & that means he's played just 7 full games yet faces off today against the Packers' turnover creating defense & has to keep pace with one of the league's best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. In the medium to long term we think bringing Kaepernick in is a good decision for the 49ers as he definitely has more scope than Alex Smith & has an added dimension of being a great athlete able to take off at any time with the ball, however in the short term it could prove costly here as this is a team that were championship contenders with Smith & his experience & decision making could have been crucial especially as they remain foremost a hard running, hard defense team.

Frank Gore is the 49ers star attacker & he put up his 6th 1,000+ rushing yards season this time around, the fact that 4 of his 5 lowest rushing games of the season coincided with the 4 losses San Francisco sustained shows just how important he is to the team. The Packers are only average at stopping the run & it's surely the 49ers best chance of success as even if Kaepernick is on his game he doesn't really have a lot of targets to pass to & seems to have somewhat zoned in exclusively on Michael Crabtree in recent weeks, top tight end Vernon Davis has gained just 6 receptions in their last 6 games. Of course the 49ers' greatest strength is on defense where they are a tour de force against the pass & run, ranking 2nd in points conceded per game (just 17.1), the leader is 2nd season linebacker Aldon Smith who came up with 19.5 sacks but the whole front 7 are outstanding & almost certainly the best in football at the moment.

The Packers' offensive line has been a weakness for some time & that 49er pressure is going to mean Rodgers will get repeatedly hit in the game, yet he's been used to that all season & yet still manages to post outstanding numbers, rarely panicking & throwing poor passes whilst under intense pressure by defenders. Rodgers seems to know when to take a sack too which remains a skill many quarterbacks still haven't acquired (Tony cough Romo cough!), he's got a great set of receivers to pass to & if he can escape the pressure he'll make some big plays in this one with so many 49ers on pass rush. Randall Cobb has really established himself in his 2nd season & got 80 receptions on the year, staying as Rodgers' most dependable receiver all season, Jordy Nelson is back & fit after missing a couple of games & James Jones will be looking to add to his huge haul of 14 TD receptions - they can definitely hurt San Fran.

(Clay Matthews & Charles Woodson can swing this in Green Bay's favour)

The Packers' key players in this one may however be on defense where they need to force Colin Kaepernick into making the mistakes that will finish the 49ers. A.J. Hawk & Clay Matthews will put him under pressure & they now have their outstanding veteran cornerback Charles Woodson back to make the plays in the backfield, he made a real difference against the Vikings last week & may prove crucial here. The 49ers were our pre-season pick to make the Super Bowl for the NFC but we're abandoning them here as we see Rodgers v Kaepernick as pivotal & we have to side with the proven quantity, take Green Bay to win as 13/10 outsiders.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat Baltimore Ravens with -9 points handicap at 10/11 (Coral, William Hill & SkyBet)
Eric Decker to score first touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
Green Bay Packers to beat San Francisco 49ers at 13/10 (Boylesports, William Hill & Pinnacle)

NFL Wildcard Weekend - Seahawks & Redskins can go points mad

Sunday's NFL wildcard playoff games are both competitive affairs & although the Colts @ Ravens should be good we're really looking forward to the late game between Seattle & Washington. We're previewing both & have three betting selections that can make viewing even more enjoyable.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Baltimore with a great back story - they finished with just two wins last last season meaning they got the first draft pick & they selected Andrew Luck & allowed legendary quarterback Peyton Manning to move on, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia & no one gave them a chance of making the playoffs - yet here they are after ending up with an impressive 11&5 record.

(Dennis Pitta could offer some value as a first touchdown scorer)

When you look back through the Colts' schedule you would have to accept it was one of the easiest of any side this year & that of course helped them gain their impressive amount of wins but the impact of Andrew Luck's quarterback play shouldn't be underestimated. Luck has come in & formed great partnerships instantly, particularly with veteran receiver Reggie Wayne who looked like he may be slowing last year yet has put up big numbers this time around. Importantly Luck has looked composed when the Colts have fallen behind, & they have done so often with their ordinary defense, that's meant he's been able to pull off late wins that have made the difference & they nearly always remain with a chance even if a couple of scores behind.

We aren't great fans of the Ravens here but they might have the right kind of game to show up Indianapolis's deficiencies here especially if they can get their classy running back Ray Rice in the game as often as possible. Baltimore's defense has been feted for years but hasn't been anywhere near so scary this year as key players have started to show their age (it often happens suddenly in the NFL) & injuries have impacted too, & just like the Colts they have a lot of wins this year against pretty ordinary teams. The Ravens have been relying on passer Joe Flacco too often for our liking as he remains inconsistent even though his strong arm means he's always a threat to every team in the league. Flacco has Torrey Smith as an excellent deep threat with his speed & size but when he gets closer to the end zone the tight end Dennis Pitta is a top target & he looks overpriced at 12/1 to score the first touchdown. Surely though the Ravens' coordinators will have noticed how the Colts' run defense isn't strong enough & we can see them handing the ball off to Ray Rice for the entire game as they look to move the ball down the field safely. The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games & must be lacking a little confidence, the perfect antidote is to rely on their best player & Rice can help them lead from start to finish, the Colts run will come to an end so take Baltimore to lead at half time & full time for improved odds of 4/6.

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins

Two of the league's impressive rookie quarterbacks face off in this one as Robert Griffin III & the Redskins host Russell Wilson & the Seahawks, both teams finished off the regular season in great form & this has the potential to be explosive.

(Russell Wilson & the Seahawks have been scoring for fun in recent games)

RG III possesses a top threat as a runner as well as when passing & that's helped them rank as the top team in terms of rushing yards this season, he's put up over 800 rushing yards & their rookie running back Alfred Morris has 1,613. That running game will be key here as Seattle have a very good defense but is slightly more vulnerable to the run than pass, their star cornerback Brandon Browner should be fit after injury too, meaning easy passing yards won't be there for Washington. On defense the Redskins got better towards the end of the season but they still remain too easy to pass against & they ranked 30th in passing yards against, DeAngelo Hall is decent at cornerback but doesn't have too many other great players in the secondary to help him out.

Seattle's Russell Wilson wasn't given much of a chance to be a success by plenty of pundits, he's slightly short for an NFL quarterback but he has improved all season & he had passer ratings of 100+ in 7 of  his last 8 games & also showed he is a serious running threat when he scored 3 rushing TDs in week 15 against Buffalo. Wilson's receiver corps are a dependable if unexplosive set & there were only 2 occasions all season where a receiver had a 100 yard receiving game for them all season. We do hoever love their running back Marshawn Lynch & he followed up  dozen TDs in 2011 with 11 this time & a huge 5.0 average yard per rushing attempt, he'll pound away at the Redskins defense & set up the pass plays. On defense the Seahawks are statistically very god, ranking 6th against the pass & 10th against the run, it may however be boosted by how difficult it is for opposing defenses to operate in Seattle due to the noise.

Washington have the home field advantage here & that could prove a crucial factor as Seattle are clearly a better side when they have the rabid & incredibly noisy fans behind them at CentuyLink Field making it difficult for opposing offenses to hear their play calling. The Seahawks probably deserve favouritism as they've beaten some top sides already this year (Packers, Patriots & 49ers), it's a tough game to call either way though & instead we'll take it to go over 46 points, the Redskins scored the 4th most points of any side in the regular season & Seattle went wild in the last few weeks scoring 170 points total in their last 4, Washington have also only limited opponents to less than 20 points 3 times all season.

Selections:
Over 46 points in Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins game at 10/11 (General)
Baltimore Ravens to be beating Indianapolis Colts at half time & full time at 4/6 (Various)
Dennis Pitta to score first touchdown in Colts @ Ravens game at 12/1 (William Hill)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Saturday - Vikings to keep pace with Packers

After 17 weeks of pounding regular season action the NFL playoffs are about to get underway, whilst New England, Denver, San Francisco & Atlanta manged to secure the top seeds & they avoid this wildcard weekend where the other 8 teams battle it out for the right to face those top seeds next week. It's a pretty good weekend of action with no 'dead certs' in the 4 games but we're looking at each of them starting with Saturday's two games here as we look to find the betting value.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

The first game we take a look at is between the slumping Houston Texans & the Cincinnati Bengals who've made the playoffs after winning 7 of their last 8 games to end with a 10&6 record.

(Matt Schaub will be looking for the win in his first ever post-season game)

Houston were our outright picks for Super Bowl glory at the start of the year & that was looking a pretty good bet as they assembled an 11&1 winning record by week 13 & looked set to claim top seed in the AFC & home advantage in their playoff games but they took a beating in Foxboro at the hands o the Patriots & seemed to suffer ending up losing twice more but this game may give them a real chance of rallying & getting a rematch with the Patriots. Although the Bengals look to be the team on the up when you take a look at the teams they've beaten it becomes a little less impressive with the three teams they've beaten with winning records all somewhat out of form at the time & the Bengals have been beating teams they should beat but losing to the teams they shouldn't for the past couple of seasons, they rarely seem to be able to spring a surprise against the stronger teams.

Houston have a side with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball with J.J. Watt their defensive star & a strong candidate for the defensive player of the year award - Watt along with Antonio Smith get a lot of sacks & the Bengals' offensive line isn't great at protecting passer Andy Dalton, they've given up 46 sacks & rank 26th (of 32) in the category. On offense Houston have a good passer in Matt Schaub, he's not spectacular but has good fundamentals in all aspects of the game & is a good decision maker, he also has one of the league's best receivers in Andre Johnson to throw to & Johnson has at times looked close to his best this season, getting the AFC's offensive player of the month for November, it's a pity they don't really have depth at the position as they can become a little predictable. The rushing attack is where the Texans excel & Arian Foster is an exceptional running back who can get success against any side.

(Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have really stepped up to the mark for Cincinnati this season)

The Bengals have an exceptional talent in receiver A.J. Green & he'll be looking to take advantage of the Texans' secondary that is definitely the weak point of their defense & has even looked a little confused at times in recent weeks with blown coverages - they can't afford to do that as A.J. will be sure to take it to the house & add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Bengals are also pretty sharp on defense, ranking 6th in yards & 8th in points given up with a big improvement from week 10 onwards where they restricted opponents to 20 points or less in all of their last 8 games (although it has to be noted they didn't face any offensive powerhouses apart from maybe the Giants who were in & out all season). Michael Johnson & Geno Atkins have been coming up with the sacks for the Bengals & although they allow too many themselves they rank 3rd in sacks gained on defense & will be targeting the Texans' rookie guard Ben Jones who could be a weak link. The Bengals don't really have anything to worry Houston on he ground, we're unconcerned with BenJarvus Gren-Ellis's running threat & Houston will be too & that'll mean their pass rush will be turned up to 11 & could prove the difference. We like he Texans to win but the point spread looks about right so we'll target the points total instead, Ladbrokes put it at 43.5 & 7 of Cinci's last 8 games have been 44 points or under & half of Houston's games haven't hit that either so the value has to be backing under 43.5 points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

We've an NFC North divisional match up in the late night game on Saturday as the Vikings travel to take on the Green Bay Packers - they only played this last week (in Minnesota) & the Vikings were victorious yet the Packers are this weekend's shortest priced team to win.

(Adrian Peterson's wonderful season could be drawing to a close but he'll give Green Bay plenty of trouble)

Home field advantage is clearly a big factor here & Green Bay prevailed 23-14 in the game here in week 13 & their only loss at Lambeau all year came in their first game of the season against the hard running 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is an awesome talent at quarterback & his refusal to focus too much on any one receiver means that opposing defenses struggle to lock down targets & add to that his ability to extend plays he comes out right near the top of the tree when assessing all NFL passers. Green Bay do allow Rodgers to get sacked too often (51 times this year) & it could lead to him getting injured at one point but it doesn't appear to have hurt them so far & they are excellent in the red zone, ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency when getting within 20 yards of the end zone. The Packers running game is also slightly improved this year although no individual back has been putting up big numbers, they're most likely to try to pass the ball anyway as that's where their weapons lie & the Vikings rank 24th against the pass.

The Vikings don't have the versatility of some teams but they do have an incredible running back in Adrian Peterson who has come back from major knee surgery to put up the 2nd biggest rushing yards season in league history. AP has also had a lot of success against the Packers in both games this season, running up big numbers even though the defense know the ball is likely to be handed off, he's also taken the  ball into the end zone for touchdowns 12 times this yea as well as moving the ball up the field with regularity. In terms of passing the Vikings clearly aren't as much of a threat although Christian Ponder has improved in his 2nd season, he is a little predictable though with Percy Harvin his favourite target apart from when in scoring range when Kyle Rudolph's number invariably gets called. Rudolph is a huge tight end & at 6"6 it doesn't matter who he goes up against he'll have a favourable match-up so he's an obvious target when in short yardage situations. Bad news for the Vikings this week is that Ponder's throwing arm is reportedly sore & that may mean they run even more often, that may not be a bad thing as Green Bay's defense is heavily reliant on causing turnovers through interceptions & running the ball eliminates that threat. Green Bay should score enough to win this game but they lost to Minnesota last week & only won by 9 in the previous game so take the Vikings with +9.5 points to win on the handicap/points spread.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Minnesota Vikings to beat Green Bay Packers with +9.5 point handicap (Paddy Power & 32Red)

Reds on Devilishly Difficult Road to Wembley

The world's oldest cup competition gets underway for 'real' this weekend as the top flight clubs join the action in the 3rd round of the FA cup & we're picking out our fancies for outright glory plus a home double for Saturday. We're also taking our customary look at a lower league game & think we've picked a real banker in League One this time.

The FA Cup

The FA Cup has probably lost some of its lustre since 90s & eras before it but what hasn't changed has been the dominance of 4 teams who've taken 22 of the last 26 competitions between them - Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United have each taken the Cup 6 times in this period with Liverpool 4 time winners. This dominance goes to show how the teams with the stronger squads consistently achieve success & how rarely a 'lucky' run can lead to a win, for that reason it is worth concentrating on the top few sides in the betting.

(Chelsea are the current holders & should put a bold bid in to retain)

Chelsea have been the recent masters of the cup, taking it 4 times in the past 6 years & they're being respected in the betting as 3rd favourites at 15/2 & they certainly tend to punish weaker teams & have a squad with a huge amount of depth. Chelsea are still way off the pace in the league with three good teams (Spurs, Arsenal & Everton) all pushing for a top 4 spot along with them & bearing in mind they only finished 6th last season it's not a guarantee they'll do it this time so Rafa Benitez's men may find themselves preoccupied with more prescient problems when the later cup rounds come along.

Liverpool have a great cup pedigree & they're probably the most interesting of the sides at a double figure price (11/1 in places), they still don't have any real consistency though & are hugely over reliant on Luis Suarez & inspirational skipper Steven Gerrard - it's no surprise that his recent upturn in form has led to the Reds looking considerably better in recent games. Daniel Sturridge has been brought in to take some pressure of off Suarez but he's not a proven Premier League goalscorer yet & there are too many questions about Liverpool compared to a few teams at odds only a few points shorter.

Manchester City are outright favourites for the competition but this has been a pretty bad season after winning the league last year & it's threatening to turn disastrous. They're 7 points off of the top of the table & were outclassed as they were knocked out of the Champions League at the group stage for the 2nd year in a row, Mancini must be under pressure after the huge investment at the club & the huge demands that entails, he's seemingly increasingly erratic as evidenced by his explosive training ground bust up with the mild mannered (ahem) Mario Balotelli & the whole club will suffer whilst storming midfielder Yaya Toure is off at the Africa Cup of Nations. They've got to put everything into chasing United in the league & the owners may also demand a real challenge in the Europa League meaning the club may end up stretched with their squad not quite having the depth throughout that some assume.

('Goal Machine' Patrice Evra embodies the attacking ethos of the current Man United squad)

At odds of 7/1 the best bet looks to be City's cross-city rivals Manchester United who've assembled a squad of incredible attacking depth & talent & have maybe not got the credit they deserve for what has been a great first half to their season. United are on course for 94 points in the league if they carry on gaining points at the same rate & that's only been bettered once in a 38 game season (Chelsea 2004-05) & they went through top of their Champions League group with no fuss at all. Robin van Persie has of course been the most visible catalyst of United's improved attacking play but there seems to be a real change in the ethos of the club with them becoming maybe as attacking focused as at anytime under Ferguson's reign. That's some statement as the club has nearly always been positive but they're now dynamic in nearly every game with Scholes & Giggs eventually being somewhat sidelined it has meant more pace & whilst Tom Cleverley is far from a great player his movement & play further up the pitch has meant their attacking fullbacks in Rafael & the recently rejuvenated Patrice Evra have been able to terrorise opposing defences. Evra has clearly been under instruction from Ferguson to get further forward & like many of the best fullbacks of the past 20 years he isn't necessarily the best defender but by going back to his style of play from 2 years back & further it has paid dividends for him & the team in terms of goals & chances created. Shinji Kagawa's & Nemanja Vidic's returns to fitness should make them even stronger & they've even shrugged off the absence of Wayne Rooney in recent games. The treble may be beyond them (particularly with Barcelona & Bayern awaiting in Europe) but they can bag a league & cup double so get on the best team at 7/1 - they've a tricky tie at West Ham this weekend but if they can edge past the Hammers they'll surely be favourites.

FA Cup 3rd round double

This is going to be fairly short as we feel the merits of these two selections should be fairly clear to all yet return odds better than Evens when doubled up.

Leicester City are the first bet as they take on League Two outfit Burton Albion in their Kingpower Stadium, the Foxes have a rock solid defence, conceding the fewest in the Championship, & their attack has begun to click into gear as evidenced by a 6-1 win against Huddersfield last time out. Burton are on the cusp of the playoff places in League Two & although this is a big day out for them it isn't a 'huge' one against a top flight team & they will be far more focused on continuing that playoff push than necessarily getting carried away & putting everything into their effort here. Burton's away form in their league campaign also hasn't been strong - they sit 19th of 24 on away results alone & that doesn't auger well for a trip to a team two divisions higher. Nigel Pearson seems an astute manager & he'll rest players that he needs to for Leicester after the busy festive period but he's a strong squad here & we can see hime giving Martyn Waghorn a start & the young Englishman can cause all sorts of problems in the Burton defence. The odds may be short at 1/3 but they should reflect Leicester's likely dominance of this game, it's hard to see their defence troubled & they'll surely score at least once & most likely more for a comfortable win.

(Hugo Rodallega's power could prove too much for Blackpool)

We also like the chances of Fulham to put their recent league form behind them & take care of opponents from a lower division in the shape of Blackpool. Fulham have only won twice in their last 13 league games but in that run they did gain draws against good sides in Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea & we can't see them getting dragged down into a relegation scrap as the season draws in. Fulham do have a few issues that need to be dealt with in the medium to long term with an aged defence but they've enough options going forwards to be able to rest players here & still pose a potent threat to Blackpool who aren't renowned for their resolute defending. Hugo Rodallega should get the chance to start for Fulham & fellow Berbatov understudy Mladen Petric could also be set to feature as he gets back to fitness, with other players such as Kieran Richardson & Kerim Frei looking for the start they should have a lot of quality even if their star player Dimitar Berbatov should be rested as seems likely. Blackpool haven't been in great from themselves with 5 wins in 22 league games & although they could have been fancied if this was at home with Fulham's poor away record it seems a lot less likely they'll get something at the Cottage. Fulham will be feeling all the better for a great win away at West Brom & their fans will be right up for this as the cup offers an outside chance at trophy glory, double up the odds of 7/10 with Leicester so a £20 double returns £45.33 at BetVictor.

Doncaster Rovers vs Colchester United

Down in League One, Doncaster Rovers entertain Colchester United at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster up in 3rd spot will see this as the perfect fixture to put behind them the disappointment of letting a two goal slip against fellow highflyers Sheffield United on New Year's Day.

(Kyle Bennett offers a pacey threat for Doncaster)

Doncaster felt harshly dealt with against Sheffield United after a dominant display was undone by a couple of questionable refereeing decision which gifted Sheffield Utd a late penalty & also a way back into the match & then a straight red card to striker Billy Paynter brought about a 89 minute equaliser. Despite this setback they will be happy with the performance for 80 minutes & are still full of confidence after five wins in their last eight league games. Rovers' away form has been sensational with nine wins from 13 games & Dean Saunders like be looking for them to improve on their five wins at home to push towards automatic promotion, starting here.

Visitors Colchester United are in dire straights currently with the worst current form in the league with nine defeats & only one victory in their last ten league games with their only rest bite coming with a postponement against Swindon Town. After a comprehensive 3-0 defeat against Crawley Town it's now seven straight league defeats which has seen them slip to 20th position & only two points outside the drop zone. They have also failed to score in four of their last five games & it's difficult to see where their next goal is coming from let alone points.

Doncaster's odds look too big at 3/4 with BetVictor who continue to price up football games ultra competitively against the opposition firms, Colchester are in freefall & Doncaster have the weapons to hurt any side in the league.

Selections:
Fulham to beat Blackpool at 7/10 & Leicester to beat Burton at 1/3 double (BetVictor at odds slightly bigger than 6/5)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Colchester United at 3/4 (BetVictor)

Manchester United to win FA Cup outright at 7/1 (BetVictor)