The FA Cup
The FA Cup has probably lost some of its lustre since 90s & eras before it but what hasn't changed has been the dominance of 4 teams who've taken 22 of the last 26 competitions between them - Arsenal, Chelsea & Manchester United have each taken the Cup 6 times in this period with Liverpool 4 time winners. This dominance goes to show how the teams with the stronger squads consistently achieve success & how rarely a 'lucky' run can lead to a win, for that reason it is worth concentrating on the top few sides in the betting.
(Chelsea are the current holders & should put a bold bid in to retain)
Chelsea have been the recent masters of the cup, taking it 4 times in the past 6 years & they're being respected in the betting as 3rd favourites at 15/2 & they certainly tend to punish weaker teams & have a squad with a huge amount of depth. Chelsea are still way off the pace in the league with three good teams (Spurs, Arsenal & Everton) all pushing for a top 4 spot along with them & bearing in mind they only finished 6th last season it's not a guarantee they'll do it this time so Rafa Benitez's men may find themselves preoccupied with more prescient problems when the later cup rounds come along.
Liverpool have a great cup pedigree & they're probably the most interesting of the sides at a double figure price (11/1 in places), they still don't have any real consistency though & are hugely over reliant on Luis Suarez & inspirational skipper Steven Gerrard - it's no surprise that his recent upturn in form has led to the Reds looking considerably better in recent games. Daniel Sturridge has been brought in to take some pressure of off Suarez but he's not a proven Premier League goalscorer yet & there are too many questions about Liverpool compared to a few teams at odds only a few points shorter.
Manchester City are outright favourites for the competition but this has been a pretty bad season after winning the league last year & it's threatening to turn disastrous. They're 7 points off of the top of the table & were outclassed as they were knocked out of the Champions League at the group stage for the 2nd year in a row, Mancini must be under pressure after the huge investment at the club & the huge demands that entails, he's seemingly increasingly erratic as evidenced by his explosive training ground bust up with the mild mannered (ahem) Mario Balotelli & the whole club will suffer whilst storming midfielder Yaya Toure is off at the Africa Cup of Nations. They've got to put everything into chasing United in the league & the owners may also demand a real challenge in the Europa League meaning the club may end up stretched with their squad not quite having the depth throughout that some assume.
('Goal Machine' Patrice Evra embodies the attacking ethos of the current Man United squad)
At odds of 7/1 the best bet looks to be City's cross-city rivals Manchester United who've assembled a squad of incredible attacking depth & talent & have maybe not got the credit they deserve for what has been a great first half to their season. United are on course for 94 points in the league if they carry on gaining points at the same rate & that's only been bettered once in a 38 game season (Chelsea 2004-05) & they went through top of their Champions League group with no fuss at all. Robin van Persie has of course been the most visible catalyst of United's improved attacking play but there seems to be a real change in the ethos of the club with them becoming maybe as attacking focused as at anytime under Ferguson's reign. That's some statement as the club has nearly always been positive but they're now dynamic in nearly every game with Scholes & Giggs eventually being somewhat sidelined it has meant more pace & whilst Tom Cleverley is far from a great player his movement & play further up the pitch has meant their attacking fullbacks in Rafael & the recently rejuvenated Patrice Evra have been able to terrorise opposing defences. Evra has clearly been under instruction from Ferguson to get further forward & like many of the best fullbacks of the past 20 years he isn't necessarily the best defender but by going back to his style of play from 2 years back & further it has paid dividends for him & the team in terms of goals & chances created. Shinji Kagawa's & Nemanja Vidic's returns to fitness should make them even stronger & they've even shrugged off the absence of Wayne Rooney in recent games. The treble may be beyond them (particularly with Barcelona & Bayern awaiting in Europe) but they can bag a league & cup double so get on the best team at 7/1 - they've a tricky tie at West Ham this weekend but if they can edge past the Hammers they'll surely be favourites.
FA Cup 3rd round double
This is going to be fairly short as we feel the merits of these two selections should be fairly clear to all yet return odds better than Evens when doubled up.
Leicester City are the first bet as they take on League Two outfit Burton Albion in their Kingpower Stadium, the Foxes have a rock solid defence, conceding the fewest in the Championship, & their attack has begun to click into gear as evidenced by a 6-1 win against Huddersfield last time out. Burton are on the cusp of the playoff places in League Two & although this is a big day out for them it isn't a 'huge' one against a top flight team & they will be far more focused on continuing that playoff push than necessarily getting carried away & putting everything into their effort here. Burton's away form in their league campaign also hasn't been strong - they sit 19th of 24 on away results alone & that doesn't auger well for a trip to a team two divisions higher. Nigel Pearson seems an astute manager & he'll rest players that he needs to for Leicester after the busy festive period but he's a strong squad here & we can see hime giving Martyn Waghorn a start & the young Englishman can cause all sorts of problems in the Burton defence. The odds may be short at 1/3 but they should reflect Leicester's likely dominance of this game, it's hard to see their defence troubled & they'll surely score at least once & most likely more for a comfortable win.
(Hugo Rodallega's power could prove too much for Blackpool)
We also like the chances of Fulham to put their recent league form behind them & take care of opponents from a lower division in the shape of Blackpool. Fulham have only won twice in their last 13 league games but in that run they did gain draws against good sides in Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea & we can't see them getting dragged down into a relegation scrap as the season draws in. Fulham do have a few issues that need to be dealt with in the medium to long term with an aged defence but they've enough options going forwards to be able to rest players here & still pose a potent threat to Blackpool who aren't renowned for their resolute defending. Hugo Rodallega should get the chance to start for Fulham & fellow Berbatov understudy Mladen Petric could also be set to feature as he gets back to fitness, with other players such as Kieran Richardson & Kerim Frei looking for the start they should have a lot of quality even if their star player Dimitar Berbatov should be rested as seems likely. Blackpool haven't been in great from themselves with 5 wins in 22 league games & although they could have been fancied if this was at home with Fulham's poor away record it seems a lot less likely they'll get something at the Cottage. Fulham will be feeling all the better for a great win away at West Brom & their fans will be right up for this as the cup offers an outside chance at trophy glory, double up the odds of 7/10 with Leicester so a £20 double returns £45.33 at BetVictor.
Doncaster Rovers vs Colchester United
Down in League One, Doncaster Rovers entertain Colchester United at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster up in 3rd spot will see this as the perfect fixture to put behind them the disappointment of letting a two goal slip against fellow highflyers Sheffield United on New Year's Day.
(Kyle Bennett offers a pacey threat for Doncaster)
Doncaster felt harshly dealt with against Sheffield United after a dominant display was undone by a couple of questionable refereeing decision which gifted Sheffield Utd a late penalty & also a way back into the match & then a straight red card to striker Billy Paynter brought about a 89 minute equaliser. Despite this setback they will be happy with the performance for 80 minutes & are still full of confidence after five wins in their last eight league games. Rovers' away form has been sensational with nine wins from 13 games & Dean Saunders like be looking for them to improve on their five wins at home to push towards automatic promotion, starting here.
Visitors Colchester United are in dire straights currently with the worst current form in the league with nine defeats & only one victory in their last ten league games with their only rest bite coming with a postponement against Swindon Town. After a comprehensive 3-0 defeat against Crawley Town it's now seven straight league defeats which has seen them slip to 20th position & only two points outside the drop zone. They have also failed to score in four of their last five games & it's difficult to see where their next goal is coming from let alone points.
Doncaster's odds look too big at 3/4 with BetVictor who continue to price up football games ultra competitively against the opposition firms, Colchester are in freefall & Doncaster have the weapons to hurt any side in the league.
Selections:
Fulham to beat Blackpool at 7/10 & Leicester to beat Burton at 1/3 double (BetVictor at odds slightly bigger than 6/5)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Colchester United at 3/4 (BetVictor)
Manchester United to win FA Cup outright at 7/1 (BetVictor)
No mention that Burton have already beaten Leicester in league cup this season...?!
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