Can City's Defence Clean Sheet up their act?

We're only just into the football season but plenty of teams are already being acclaimed or damned & maybe some of those sides will show that making cast iron statements based on just 2 or 3 games isn't wise as we move on in the next few weeks & months. By Saturday all of the transfer business will have been sorted & we'll know exactly what players teams have until December at least, we've got some more bets up as we look to improve after a decidedly dodgy start (not helped by some decidedly dodgy keeping by Messrs Green & Jaaskelainen!) & we're keen not to fall into a trap of basing everything on a few games played so far.

Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers

In the day's late game we see a rematch of the incredible game on the last day of the season as Man City host QPR at the Etihad, QPR nearly denied City the title that day but we don't see them getting close this time

(Somewhat unfairly maligned on arrival - Joleon Lescott has become an integral part of Man City's defence)

This is a matchup between the teams with last season's best home record & worst away record & that bodes ominously badly for Mark Hughes's men especially with City looking to bounce back after drawing at Anfield. City will again be without Sergio Aguero up front but our antepost top scorer tip Carlos Tevez is looking razor sharp & should prove hard to stop for QPR's somewhat porous defence that conceded 66 goals in the league last year. QPR have made many signings this year, of mainly older players with Premier League experience, & we reckon they'll be alright in the end but may take a few games to gel whereas City are very much an established unit & have looked very good going forwards.

City haven't had any problems in attack so far but he may be slightly concerned that the team have conceded two goals in their opening two games & he experimented with a back three last week as he had done in may pre season games. Mancini will be confident they'll score here & so we expect him to have drilled his players on the defensive side of the game this week as he looks to get a clean sheet & shut any critics up. City control a lot of games possession wise, have a fine defence & a very good keeper in Joe Hart in behind - it's easy to see how they ended with 11 clean sheets in their 19 home games last year & we reckon they're in for another in this one.

Odds of 5/4 about a Man City win whilst keeping a clean sheet look an excellent bet especially when you can only get 11/8 with a -2 head start which shows how much the bookies think they have in hand over the visitors. We can't see past a City win & Tevez can bag another, odds of 4/1 for him to be first scorer look fair but we can't recommend it with so many other potential scorers & Super Mario on the penalties too.

Swansea City vs Sunderland

(Michael Laudrup chose not to take part in Denmark's 1992 Euro win - is he the best decision maker?)

Elsewhere in the Premier League we see on-song Swansea take on Sunderland at home & there will be plenty of form merchants believing that the Swans are a good bet after thumping 5-0 & 3-0 victories in their opening two league games & a win in the League Cup too. A top price of 5/4 is available for the home team but we're not sure that offers a great deal of value for a side that were tipped up by many to struggle this season, they've had a nice start but have been fortunate to come up against QPR who were dreadful in their opener & then West Ham gifted them a two goal lead through a keeping & then defensive error whilst otherwise looking just as competitive until then.

We've seen plenty of commentators going a bit over the top about Swansea & reckon that Martin O'Neill will have his men well drilled to stop their passing game & soak up pressure just like they did at Arsenal in their opening fixture.We think that the Mackems have made a wonderful signing in Adam Johnson who is right up there in terms of skilful English players & their other big signing, Steven Fletcher, will relish the service he'll get from Johnson, James McClean & the unselfish & inventive Stephane Sessegnon. Sunderland have also looked to shore up their back line with the signing of Carlos Cuellar & he'll provide some cover & competition to some somewhat injury prone players at the back.

O'Neill's side coped well with Arsenal & they are clearly a superior outfit to Swansea who play a similar style, they missed their next league game against Reading due to a waterlogged pitch but that just meant more preparation time for this game & they won well in the League Cup the other night. Sunderland mightn't be too adventurous going forwards themselves & that means the draw at odds of 12/5 looks a big player in the market for us & this could well end up a goalless stalemate, no goalscorer is available at 9/1 & is worth a small bet.

Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient

In League One, promoted Crawley Town take on Leyton Orient at the Broadfield Stadium, both sides played higher league opposition this week in the Capital One Cup & now return to League One where Crawley are 7th & Leyton Orient are second from bottom after three games played.

(Summer signing Gary Alexander celebrates his brace against Scunthorpe)

Despite losing manager Sean O'Driscoll to Nottingham Forest late in the summer the appointment of Richie Barker from rivals Bury could prove a shrewd move with his knowledge of the league. His side bounced back from a 3-0 drubbing away at Swindon Town with an excellent hard fought win at Doncaster Rovers 1-0 to record their second league victory of the season. It's also their second clean sheet & striking duo Gary Alexander & Nicky Ajose are in good form with three of their four league goals.

Leyton Orient game last weekend was postponed in unusual circumstances when visitors Hartlepool coach was stuck in traffic. This leaves them with two defeats against Tranmere Rovers (3-1) & Stevenage (0-1) from two games in the league so far. Their only league goal has been a late consolation penalty & they seem to have a long hard season ahead of them.

Crawley at home with strikers in-form should be too strong for an average Leyton Orient outfit & can collect the three points at best odds of 8/11, they'll be buoyed by a fabulous win against Bolton in the League Cup & should win easily here.

Selections:
Manchester City to beat Queens Park Rangers to nil at 5/4 (Skybet)
Swansea v Sunderland - Draw at 12/5 (Various)
Crawley Town to beat Leyton Orient at 8/11 (Coral, Totesport & Betfred)

No goalscorer at 9/1 in the Swansea v Sunderland game at 9/1 (Bet365, Skybet & Ladbrokes)

Taking a Hammer to Swans - Is that even legal?

It's not been an entirely predictable start to the new football season & that unpredictability is part of what makes it exciting, with just one or two rounds of games played there isn't too much recent form to base decisions on & we think there may be some slightly false prices available based on single performances. We've got selections from the Premier League & lower down the ladder as we look to start the ball rolling on a profit front for the year. You can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney where we keep you up to date with any blog posts & talk about sports & betting in general, hopefully we'll also be getting some competitions running for the new season soon!

Swansea City vs West Ham United

(Big Sam might take a little extra pleasure in beating Swansea who, supposedly, play 'the right way')

One team that people certainly seem to be getting carried away with after their first game is Michael Laudrup's Swansea City after they thrashed QPR 5-0 at Loftus Road, it certainly was impressive but they are facing a different proposition in West Ham United back home at the Liberty Stadium. Sam Allardyce's side along with Stoke play probably the most different type of football to Swansea's slick passing style as is possible & will nearly always have less than 50% possession so won't be unduly concerned whilst Swansea hold onto the ball. Newcastle United won here in the league last season whilst only having 32% of the ball & West Ham will have every chance of doing the same with their long balls & potent threat at set pieces.

Swansea really played well against QPR but it should be noted that the defensive display from the London side was comedic at best with ex-Hammer Rob Green letting a real soft one in to start the rout  unsettle his defenders at the same time, Mark Hughes clearly knows he has problems in defence & has moved for Ricardo Carvalho & Michael Dawson to rectify it. New signing Michu bagged two last week & is being hailed already but he never really fired them in until last season for Real Mallorca (14 league goals in 4 years prior in the Spanish 2nd tier) & caution should be taken before thinking he's their cutting edge. Wayne Routledge was also impressive last week but rarely puts two good performances in a row in & similarly whilst Nathan Dyer also scored twice he's only got 21 goals in his 227 game career. We basically don't think it will be as easy for the Swans to get the better of West Ham's big centre back pairing of Winston Reid (6"3) & James Collins (6"4) & they'll also have plenty to deal with at the other end of the pitch.

Modibo Maigo could get his first start for the Hammers after coming on as a sub against Villa & he reportedly has considerable talent with Newcastle having made a move for him before it stalling upon a medical. Other than Maigo, Big Sam has plenty of choice up front & can pick from Nicky Maynard, Ricardo Vaz Te, Carlton Cole & Freddy Piquionne to try to form a strategy to win here. Captain Kevin Nolan will also score his share this year & we think West Ham have a great chance of breaching the Swansea defence & we're unconvinced about the home side's goal threat when not playing against porous QPR defences. If West Ham can score it'll make it difficult for Swansea to win so taking the Hammers on the draw no bet market at 12/5 is the selection.

Notts County vs Walsall

Down in League One, Notts County entertain Walsall at Meadow Lane, lthough still early days in the new season the Magpies have made a confident start with a perfect start & six points whilst Walsall have only picked up a solitary point.

(Skipper Neal Bishop scored the Magpies second against Hartlepool in midweek)

More importantly, looking at a longer term trend, Notts County manager Keith Curle has a nice win ratio of 63% with twelve victories from 19 matches & County have made a number of decent signings in the summer whilst crucially keeping hold of sought after midfielders Alan Judge & Jeff Hughes. New signings Bartosz Bialkowski, Gary Liddle, Dean Leacock & Andre Boucaud have all made instant impacts but striker Francios Zoko has been the most impressive with two goals in two games. He came off in the comfortable 2-0 win over Hartlepool in midweek but only as a precautionary measure & will hopefully be back to lead the line & continue to build his relationship with Lee Hughes as they look to strike up what could be a formidable partnership.

Walsall have struggled in recent seasons & only narrowly escaped relegation last season on the penultimate day. With no cash to spend; manager Dean Smith is facing a long, hard season & they have made the expected slow start. A heavy 3-0 home defeat against Doncaster was followed by a draw with Oldham who themselves aren't going to trouble the top half. Saddlers keeper David Grof has been given a warning this week that his place is at risk after a number of errors & this can only create indecision & panic in a defence which is average at best. Notts County have the players & confidence to beat a poor Walsall side & continue setting the pace in League One at the reasonable odds of 4/5.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Swansea City draw no bet at 12/5 (General)
Notts County to beat Walsall at 4/5 (Stan James & Coral)

Accurate Shots can beat wayward Grecians

There's no let up in the new football league season as we go straight from the opening weekend into midweek action & we're going for a home team double on Tuesday night with odds against available on both our picks.

Aldershot Town vs Exeter City

(Troy Brown organises the Shots defence & popped up with a goal vs Plymouth)

In League Two, Aldershot Town entertain Exeter City at the Recreation Ground, although still very early days in the new season Aldershot have made a confident start whilst Exeter, after relegation & a number of first team players leaving in the summer, are still trying to fit together.

Aldershot are looking to build on their 11th place finish last season & have added a number of experienced players to their young squad. Defenders Anthony Tonkin & Troy Brown should shore up the defence & they will be hoping striker Craig Reid can fire in the goals. Confidence will be high in the camp after two good away performances against Wolves in the Capital One cup, where they only lost 7-6 on pens after a 1-1 draw, & a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.

Exeter, relegated from League One, have had a summer of change with Richard Duffy, James Dunne, Troy Archibald-Henville, Daniel Nardiello (leading goalscorer), David Noble & Richard Logan all leaving after playing 30+ games last season. Again they have also brought in experience in Kevin Amankwaah & Tom Doherty whilst re-signing veterans Matt Oakley & Jamie Cureton. But with all the upheaval it's obvious that the side will need a number of weeks to get up to full speed & this is shown in their two results so far having lost against Crystal Palace 2-1 (no disgrace) & then suffering a heavy 3-0 defeat at home to Morecambe at the weekend. Aldershot are usually strong at home & will be buoyant by a good couple of games are a reasonable price of 5/4 to beat an Exeter side who lost 17 of their 23 away games last season albeit being in League One. It can take some time to mould players into a team & Exeter could be side to avoid punting on for the first few weeks of the season.

Watford vs Ipswich Town

(Gianfranco Zola (+ a load of Udinese loanees) is trying to bring some Italian flair to Watford)

Jumping up a couple of divisions to the Championship we think that Watford can capitalise on an outstanding finish to their first game of the season by winning at home against Paul Jewell's Ipswich. Watford were 2-1 down with minutes remaining before coming back to win 3-2 against rivals Crystal Palace on Saturday, sending their fans into raptures. The outer London team have been taken over by the owners of Udinese & Gianfranco Zola has been put in charge & given 4 players on loan from the Italian side with two making an immediate impact as the scorers of the two late goals on Saturday (Abdi & Vydra). As well as the Udinese loanees they've also brought in two from Spanish side Granada & made permanent signings of ex-Arsenal keeper Manuel Almunia & ('One Size') Fitz Hall from QPR - they may do more business before transfer deadline day but either way they've made a move & will be pushing for the playoffs.

Ipswich tried to be positive in the summer by moving on some old timers & replacing them with younger counterparts including signing keeper Scott Loach from rivals here Watford. We however just don't see that they've moved forwards in terms of quality & they lost both league games last year to Watford (both 2-1) & Paul Jewell is a candidate for an early job loss if his side go on a losing run like they did last year (11 losses in 15 games between October & January). Ipswich managed to salvage a point against promotion candidates Blackburn on Saturday but that was a home game & they were rather fortunate with the equaliser coming from a Jason Lowe own goal, only Michael Chopra got into double figures in terms of goals last year for the Tractor Boys & he needs more support.

Ipswich only won six times on the road last year in the league & are facing an improving Watford side (only lost one of last 13 last year) who've upgraded their side & are coming off the back of a dramatic win. The indications are that Watford should win this & odds of 5/4 are excellent value, we're going to double up the home sides & hope the away teams get a little travel sick.

Selections:
Aldershot Town to beat Exeter City at 5/4 (BetVictor)
Watford to beat Ipswich Town at 5/4 (Bet365)

Double on above selections (Aldershot & Watford) at odds of around 4/1

Monday Night Football - Rampant Reds Ready to Roll

We love a bit of Monday Night Football, especially when we end up with a double dose thanks to NFL action from the states too, but for now we're quite happy seeing it kick off between two of the Premier League's best teams in Everton & Manchester United.

(Top midfielder Marouane Fellaini is starting his 5th season with Everton)

We've gone for Everton as our winners on the handicap in the league this season (+28 point headstart) & think they've done some shrewd business this year by holding onto their best players whilst allowing a fading Tim Cahill to leave for America & picking up a wad of cash for an injury prone youngster in Jack Rodwell. The permanent signing of Steven Pienaar is a big positive & Steven Naysmith will link up well with Jelavic after already forming a partnership with the big man at Rangers, they've further bolstered their frontline with the signing of Kevin Mirallas from Olympiakos but he's signed too late to be involved against United. So you'll see that we've a lot of time for Everton this year........ yet we still think that Manchester United are the team to side with here. Everton consistently fail to start well enough, season after season, & while we think their season mightn't be as lopsided as last year (lost 6 of first 10 & only 2 of last 18), they have one of the toughest starts available here.

(Shinji Kagawa - The Whole F'N Show)

United have also gone about improving their attacking options with the signing of last year's top scorer & deserved player of the season Robin van Persie plus the hugely exciting talent that is Shinji Kagawa frrom Borussia Dortmund. Some have commented that attack wasn't necessarily the part of the team that needed upgrading for United & it is certainly worrying that a central midfielder hadn't been signed in 5 years before Nick Powell's arrival, we're not of the same opinion as the pundits (Jamie Redknapp ahem) that Michael Carrick & Paul Scholes are the answers to all of the world's ills! Regardless of central midfield Alex Ferguson has so many quality attacking players to choose from that we can see United coming out & blitzing Everton from all angles as players look to impress with so much competition in those positions. It's conceivable that Wayne Rooney could end dropping deeper than ever as van Persie will likely be the most advanced forward, Valencia, Nani & Young will vie for the wide positions & Kagawa could end up playing close behind the Dutch forward. Coral are going a standout 12/1 for Kagawa to net first (he's a short as 15/2 elsewhere) & that looks a little big for a player that netted 12 in 28 games in his first season for Dortmund & then 17 times last year. Kagawa's scored twice in pre season (Rooney was the only other to get two) & generally looked lively, being involved in most of United's best attacking moments & has the potential to be the outright signing of the season.

(Best in the business - Nemanja Vidic returns from injury for United)

The other big positive for United this year is the return of Nemanja Vidic to the fold after 8 months out with a cruciate ligament injury, the Serb is one of the world's very best centre halves & young keeper David de Gea should really benefit with him in front of him, especially when it comes to corners & set pieces. The latest news for United is worrying though with Rio Ferdinand unlikely to play with a reported groin injury, that could mean Carrick dropping back or a youngster (Michael Keane or Frederic Veseli) starting as Smalling, Jones & Evans are all unready for the start of the season. Whoever starts with Vidic will at least have the best partner available, he'll marshal the defence well & is better at that role than when the same has to be done with Ferdinand. It certainly won't be easy for United but they finished 33 points clear of the Toffees last season which gives an indication of the gap between the two teams in quality & in the first half of last season the Red Devils only dropped points twice on their travels with draws at Stoke & Liverpool - odds of 10/11 for a Manchester United victory look fair.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Everton at 10/11 (general)
Shinji Kagawa to score first at 12/1 (Coral)

Poor Pompey deserve Pity & Punting against

It's finally upon us, the first weekend of the English football season is here after a less tortuous summer break than usual thanks to great sport in the form of the Olympics & European Championships. We'll be bringing you our betting picks throughout the season as we try to seek out value in the multitude of markets the bookies now offer. We're hoping to get the year off to a nice start through backing against a couple of sides with various troubles who just so happen to be Harry 'Wheeler Dealer' Redknapp's last two teams.

Newcastle vs Spurs

The late kick-off in the Premiership this Saturday sees Newcastle host Tottenham at St James Park. Both sides will be in the battle to make the top four this season but you could say Newcastle have the edge at the moment.

(Is chairman Daniel Levy helping or hindering Spurs in their latest transfer saga?)

Spurs have had a summer of change with Harry Redknapp being replaced with Andres Villas-Boas & long term captain Ledley King retiring due to his chronic knee problem. What hasn't changed is the fact that chairman Daniel Levy has yet again let a summer transfer saga overrun without suitable conclusion & seems to think the season starts on the 1st September not mid-August. To come into the opening match with only one senior striker must seem laughable to their rivals & embarrassing to those fans in the stands as Levy has known this since the beginning of the summer (Adebayor's loan finishing & Saha being released). There is a real possibility of Spurs season starting badly with the famous 'two points from eight games' springing to mind with the only differences being a different foreign manager & transfer saga (Berbatov instead of Modric). Jermain Defoe scored a cracker for England in midweek but he doesn't inspire confidence in these quarters, pundits seem to love him yet they conveniently fail to note he's only broken past 13 league goals twice since his season on loan with Bournemouth in 2000-01 & is generally considered to be a 'flat track bully' (scores in bunches against weak sides).

(Newcastle have kept the players to mount a serious 'top four' challenge again)

Newcastle on the other hand have had a fairly quiet summer but have importantly kept hold of all their stars & will be looking to improve on their 5th place finish last season. A solid defence based around keeper Tim Krul & Fabricio Coloccini & defensive shield of Cheick Tiote allows Frenchmen Yohan Cabaye & Hatem Ben Afra to provide the balls to hot shots Papiss Cisse & Demba Ba. A few of these are slightly doubtful for the opener but we would expect them to have enough fit & raring go at kick off. If you add into the mix that Newcastle have only lost once at home in 2012 & Spurs away record to top six sides is notoriously bad the 17/10 on offer for a Toon Army win seems a value bet.

Portsmouth vs Bournemouth

(Portsmouth manager Michael Appleton is facing a uphill battle)

Sorry Portsmouth welcome Bournemouth to Fratton Park in their opening League One fixture. Without being a Pompey fan it will be hard to understand what they are going through after news that they are on the brink of liquidation again with prospective owner Balram Chainrai announcing he has withdrawn his offer to buy the club. The summer has seen all senior players leave via routes to other clubs or contract settlement being agreed & yet again they will have to field basically a youth team to fulfil this fixture. Tuesday night they were defeated 3-0 by Plymouth in the Capital One cup & after first team coach Ashley Westwood went off injured it left their entire outfield side aged 18 or under. In contrast Bournemouth have overcome their money issues in recent years & should be chomping at the bit to get underway with promotion a real possibility. The Cherries have made a number of astute signings & up-front they have three strikers in Lewis Grabban, Matt Tubbs & Josh McQuoid who will be a real handful for any defence, Tubbs & Grabban are both nearing favouritism for top scorer in the division.

Portsmouth have managed to sign 10 players, each on one month deals, this Thursday but it remains to be seen whether they have match fitness & there's no chance for them to gel before Saturday. We expect Bournemouth to take advantage of Pompey's current plight & grab the three points at best odds of 10/11, the side that Portsmouth have right now will be lucky to pick up a handful of wins all season & financial saviour won't stop them slipping into the basement league of English football.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 17/10 (William Hill)
Bournemouth to beat Portmouth at 10/11 (various)

Premier League Antepost bets - Tricky Toffee Handicap Pudding

It looks difficult to escape the Manchester clubs when looking for an outright winner for the Premier League especially as we think Chelsea have a lot of work to do to make up ground with so many new faces joining although we reckon Arsenal could make a challenge if their new strike pairing get rolling especially with the addition of the creative talent of Santi Cazorla. As we don't want to wait a full season to pick up potential winnings at relatively short odds we've looked away from the outright winner market for some nice bets at bigger prices.

(Pienaar, Jelavic & Fellaini could grace many a Premier League side)

The team that we like to outperform expectations & make a move on the handicap market (teams are given a head-start on points starting with Man City at scratch to Reading getting as many as 48 points) are Everton. The Toffees have been undone on so many previous occasions by slow starts to the season but this year David Moyes looks to have got transfer business done relatively early with the permanent re-signing of creative maestro Steven Pienaar & Rangers attacker Steven Naismith who they will look to re-establish the potent partnership he formed with Nikica Jelavic when north of the border. We felt that selling Tim Chaill was a shrewd move as the great servant was certainly in decline & we've never really seen why people were so keen on Jack Rodwell who has now moved to Man City to warm the bench whilst putting plenty of much needed cash into Everton's coffers. David Moyes will be using a little of that Rodwell money to bolster the attack with the expected signing of Belgian Kevin Mirallas & maybe French youngster M'Baye Niang & they would give Moyes much needed attacking options. Everton are solid in defence with Phil Jagielka, John Heitinga & Tim Howard being players worthy of a place in most teams whilst Leighton Baines offers maybe the league's best attacking option from the left back position. Marouane Fellaini is now embarking upon his 5th season at the club & they look to have a solid core of players, the only real area of weakness seems to be that they are imbalanced with more strength down the left than right. If Everton can get enough to even a reasonable, rather than atrocious, start they should be making a real play for Europe & with +28 points they are our handicap pick.

(How long will new manager Steve Clarke's smile last at West Brom?)

West Brom look like having a rather uncertain season ahead of them after losing arguably their greatest asset in manager Roy Hodgson to the England job, they don't seem to have improved their playing staff considerably & have one of the smaller squads in the league - a relegation battle could ensue.

Making the loan deal for goalkeeper Ben Foster permanent was certainly an astute move as he looks to thrive when out of the spotlight, unlike for England & when at Man United, but he really only keeps West Brom where they were last season & the other permanent deal, for Sewden's Markus Rosenberg looks uninspiring. The Swedish striker scores around once ever 3.5 games but has played mainly in Germany & one season in Spain, he looked woeful in the Euros & may find things considerably tougher in England. It seems that the front line is an area that the Baggies are trying to upgrade as they've also brought in Chelsea's Romelu Lukaku who is still very young at just 19 & ready to improve yet still only scored once in 12 appearances for the Blues, he was much more prolific when in Belgium at Anderlecht. They've also brought in another Belgian on loan in the form of winger Yassine El Ghanassy who has promise but has yet to make the breakthrough to his national team on a regular basis with just one appearance in 2011.

Of the players to leave West Brom left back Nicky Shorey & the underrated Paul Scharner are probably the two most significant as Keith Andrews, Simon Cox & Somen Tchoyi only saw limited playing time last season anyway (Cox could prove a good signing for Nottingham Forest in the Championship). Worries remain around some of the players they've retained as they'll surely be reliant again upon Peter Odemwingie for goals & they didn't seem to be able to decide upon their best players last year with James Morison & the rather limited Gareth McAuley being the only outfield players to make more than 30 league appearances. You look through the West Brom squad & there appear to be too many players of limited ability, you would have to question how many other Premier League sides they'd get into, Hodgson got the most out of this limited bunch through excellent tactical nous but it remains to be seen whether Steve Clarke in his first managerial job can do the same. We are unconvinced by the summer transfer moves made by West Brom, they seem to be unambitious & could reflect a lack of trust in the manager & with Steve Clarke totally unproven they seem way too big at 4/1 for relegation.

(2009/10 golden boot winner Carlos Tevez looks fit & mentally ready for the new season)

Moving on to talk about winners rather than potential losers we think there are a couple of underrated players in the top goalscorer market in Carlos Tevez & new Arsenal signing Lukas Podolski with the bookies offering some value with prices that are conducive to each way betting. Tevez looked slimmed down when stepping out for the recent Community Shield match & put in a very good performance capped by a stunning goal from the edge of the area, he's a player of the highest quality & arguably just about the best in the league when on form. Tevez is a proven scorer in the league with 23 & 20 league goals in his first two seasons with City & he shared the golden boot with Berbatov two seasons back, around 20 goals is the key to being in at least the places in this race. City seem to be committed to attacking now & the only worry would be that Tevez could have to share playing time with Aguero, Balotelli & Dzeko but he seems to have put any problems with the management behind him & we expect him to play close to the 30 games he'll need to challenge for this, at twice the odds of Aguero Tevez is the bet at 16/1.

(Lukas Podolski is a superstar at international level & now seeks to become a Premier League star)

We've seen some pundits reckoning Podolski is a potential flop but he's scored 44 goals for Germany in 101 caps & he's only 27 years old so should be entering his very best years now, he struggled when moving to German giants Bayern Munich but may be better suited now a few years later & with less expectation on his shoulders. With 18 goals for relegated Koln last year Podolski showed he's not to be messed with & he's scored a few Champions League goals too which shows he can cut it at the highest level. Robin van Persie was last year'stop scorer with 30 goals & that wasn't simply because he's excellent - he also had a great supply line at Arsenal & now Podolski along with the other new signing Giroud will get to benefit from that service. We reckon Podolski could form a potent partnership with the 6"3 Giroud & benefit from some knockdowns & layoffs, the German is as short as 20/1 with Ladbrokes but we'll take the 40/1 on offer with Sportingbet at what looks a great price for a striker at a top club with an attacking philosophy.

Selections:
Everton to win on the handicap with +28 points at 15/1 (various)
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 4/1 (various)
Carlos Tevez to be top scorer each way at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill) 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
Lukas Podolski to be top scorer each way at 40/1 (Sportingbet) 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4

League One Antepost bets - Bookie 'Wrecking Crewe'

League One looks to be a pretty interesting division this year with Sheffield United as the favourites with them still in the League after failure in the playoff final & other fancied sides including MK Dons & newly promoted Swindon. Portsmouth have come down & will start with basically no players & a minus 10 point deduction & continuing uncertainty over their future, they look to be in serious trouble already & we couldn't put anyone off a bet for them to be relegated at short odds however we don't like waiting that long for relatively small returns.

(Steve Davis will be looking for his promoted Crewe side to continue their form into League One)

Swindon would probably be our picks for outright glory as they have momentum after promotion & seem to have made some astute signings, plus an impressive display against Brighton in the League Cup also breeds confidence however we think a superior bet may lay on the handicap market with Crewe Alexandra. Crewe have one of the most impressive youth setups in the country, producing numerous players who've gone on to make the big time & their latest exciting player Nick Powell has gone to join Manchester United in exchange for £4m into Crewe's pot. Crewe came up through the playoffs from last year & they blooded plenty of youngsters who have stayed at the club with Shaun Miller the only other player of note to leave.

Crewe have a young manager of real promise in Steve Davis & he's prepared to adopt unorthodox measures & instil discipline to get the right results. Crewe will continue to bring through quality youngsters but have spent some of their Nick Powell windfall on players to bolster the squad including a much needed left back in Gregor Robertson from Chesterfield, centre back Mark Ellis from Torquay & also Mathias Pogba (brother of Paul) who scored twice on debut in the League Cup. Crewe will need to score more goals if they are to challenge higher up the table but Pogba could be a real gem of a signing & they have so much potential improvement in the team thanks to so many youngsters that a 25 point head start on the handicap with BetVictor looks a very good bet.

(Ryan Lowe should offer a real challenge for League One's top scorer honours)

For a top scorer in the division we can't look any further than MK Dons' Ryan Lowe who is as short as 12/1 (& favourite) with Ladbrokes yet as big as 20/1 elsewhere. Lowe signed for Sheffield Wednesday last year for over £100k but ended up not playing too often as competition was fierce, he's come to MK Dons with the promise of action & is a proven goalscorer at this level. He scored 49 goals in 90 league appearances for a pretty poor Bury outfit which brought about his move to Wednesday & he'll have some quality service from midfield here. Dons manager Karl Robinson is committed to passing, attacking football (they were the league's 2nd top scorers with 84 goals last year) & that means Lowe is in the right side if he wants to challenge for this honour. Darren Potter & Luke Chadwick should be the key midfielders who provide the service for Lowe & at 33 years old he will want it to be quality stuff as he won't want to run around too much!

We like Ryan Lowe's chances even more because of the players in front of him in the betting: Chris Porter & Richard Cresswell are both at Sheffield United & could share the goals between them plus the club struggled for goals once Ched Evans was out of the team thanks to his conviction for rape; Andy Williams has signed for Swindon from Yeovil & will be in an attacking side but Di Canio switched his strikers around a fair bit last year & could do the same again; Matt Tubbs & Lewis Grabban are two serious threats but will likely have to share goals between them for an attacking looking Bournemouth side. Therefore with Ryan Lowe as the main man at MK Dons he looks the best bet for top scorer at 20/1.

Selections:

Crewe Alexandra on the handicap with +25 points at 18/1 (BetVictor)
Ryan Lowe League One top scorer at 20/1 (BlueSquare & 888Sport) 1/4 odds each way 1-2-3-4

League Two Antepost Bets - Going once more to the Wells

Anyway, we're back, we'll be bringing you our regular articles and best bets over the course of the coming season and we'll be interacting with you on Twitter and asking for your top tips each week to find out what you're backing, keep your eyes peeled for more information on this.

With the big kick off just around the corner we've been seeking some long term value bets at big prices that warrant an investment that only sees any potential return only coming back to you in 9 months time - first up we've a couple of top scorer bets from League Two.

(Adam Birchall will hope to get on the scoring trail for Gillingham after missing last season through injury)

Gillingham's Adam Birchall looks a decent bet for top scorer as thus far into pre season the 2011/12 League Two top scorers (79) have managed to keep hold of Danny Jackman who provided nine assists last term & his form will be key to Birchall's chances of bagging  the required 20+ goals. Manager, Martin 'Mad Dog' Allen is keen to partner Birchall and Danny Kedwell together & Kedwell should continue to work himself into the ground week after week, he is seen by many, us included, as the foil to Birchall.

With Birchall having missed last season through an injury suffered in a pre season friendly the ex-Dover man must be chomping at the bit to lead the line for the Gills (ironically enough he scored against his former club in a recent friendly). Having bagged 64 goals in 78 games for Dover, Birchall attracted interest from the likes of now League One outfit Swindon Town before moving to Gillingham. The fancied sides in the division each have a number of striking options which we think might dilute their strikers' chances whereas Birchall should be the Gills' focal point, he provides a good value bet at 40/1+ to be top League Two scorer.

(Bradford's young Bermudan striker Nahki Wells should form a potent partnership with Alan Connell)

Another option in the top scorer market is Bradford's 22 year old striker Nahki Wells, again priced at 40/1 with BetVictor. Nahki signed for the Bantams last summer as 'one for the future' however injuries to Bradford's forward line meant the youngster was given a chance of first team football & he rewarded that trust as he bagged 10 league goals from 18 starts, & showed he's not a one trick pony by scoring a variety of goals. Interest in the summer was high and Bradford offered him an improved contract to keep suitors at bay. Also this summer Bradford have added much needed midfielders to their ranks: the likes of Gary Jones, Will Atkinson, Garry Thompson and 9th summer signing Nathan Doyle have all signed for Phil Parkinson's side. Wells has bagged 4 goals in 5 pre season and looks likely to feature far more in the first team alongside another new signing Alan Connell (from Swindon).

The pressure is on Bradford once again this season, they are seen by many as playoff contenders and to achieve a lofty position Wells and Connell need to weigh in with plenty of goals. The only worry with Wells is if he starts off well enough there could be interest from teams in League One or above during the January transfer window, of course he could even get signed up by another League Two club which would keep the bet going - the risk is worth taking though & explains his inflated odds of 40/1.
Selections:
Adam Birchall to be top League Two goalscorer at 40/1 (BetVictor)
Nahki Wells to be top League Two goalscorer at 40/1 (BetVictor)

Bolton can Trot to Championship Glory

The Championship offers up some of the most exciting competition around in its 46 game season & this year looks like being no different & the quality of football shouldn't be underestimated with plenty of players who could cut it at the top level dotted around the teams. We've picked out a couple of likely contenders for promotion & our outright fancies for the Championship trophy.

(Classy Stu Holden is probably Like Buying Money's favourite player & with a little injury luck will be key in getting Bolton stright back to the big time)

Bolton Wanderers suffered a miserable season last year as they finished 18th & were deservedly relegated after 11 consecutive seasons in the top flight, it was only a year before that Owen Coyle's men were being lauded for some of their play & only a terrible slump at the end (losing their last 5) that stopped them from finishing as high as 8th in 2010-11.

Bolton suffered worse than just about any team last year with injury problems, they were robbed for most of the season of their two best players in central midfielder Stu Holden & winger Lee Chung-Yong. Wanderers have so far retained the services of Lee & Holden (maybe partly due to those injury concerns) & seem to have kept the core of their squad even after dropping down, the biggest departures were probably Reo-Coker (not as good as he thinks he is), Jussi Jaaskelainen (a faded force) & Ivan Klasnic (less than prolific). Defence was a huge problem for Bolton last year as they kept just three clean sheets, Coyle has worked to rectify that situation with the American Tim Ream coming in last January & the very astute signing of Matt Mills from Leicester this off-season. Mills is a quality operator at this level as evidenced by consistently good displays for Doncaster & Reading, he never settled at Leicester after signing last summer & once Sven Goran Eriksson was replaced Nigel Pearson it became worse after an alleged falling out between him & the new boss, Bolton should provide him with a new start & hopefully he will reward the chance taken on him. Coyle will also have David Wheater & Zat Knight to call upon at centre back meaning poor form & injuries can be covered, the full back positions are more troublesome but he should have Tyrone Mears back after a full year out due to a broken leg (he's made just one Bolton appearance) & the promising youth team graduate Joe Riley also providing competition at right back, Sam Ricketts may start at left back but expect Spanish youngster Marcos Alonso to push for that starting berth too.

Midfield is a real strength for Bolton, we can scarcely believe they've held onto technical experts Stu Holden & Mark Davies so far & Darren Pratley should do better down at this lower level, they've also added Irishman Keith Andrews to the midfield & he's another who should operate well in the Championship & could add a combative element when needed. Out wide they'll have maybe the two best wingers in the league with Lee & Martin  Petrov & as wide cover they've picked up 21 year old Gregg Wylde, one of the Rangers players to join the Exodus, Chris Eagles joins the wide players meaning they've plenty to choose from in every position in the midfield & defence.

(Loanee from Arsenal Benik Afobe has been prolific in his youth career & will look to step it up at Bolton)

Up front Bolton probably don't look so strong but Kevin Davies may yet have one good season left in him & he surely won't give away as many freekicks now away from the fussy Premier League referees, he'll enjoy the physical element of this league & will score a fari few plus lay enough off for his strike partners. We're unconvinced by new signing from Watford Marvin Sordell but he was selected by Stuart Pearce for the Olympics (he wasn't great when appearing) so must have a little quality & a new team could bring out the best in him. David Ngog has yet to prove he can score goals anywhere & it's make or break for him now but the loan signing of Arsenal 19 year old Benik Afobe could be a stroke of genius, he's been involved in the England setup at Under 16, 17 & 19 level scoring plenty of goals & he scored a pre season hat trick against Tranmere in his first full Bolton game. Afobe has been generating a bit of buzz around the Reebok & Bolton will be hoping they have similar success with him as they did with another Arsenal loanee Jack Wilshere, the fancy odds have gone around Afobe to be top goalscorer but 25/1 is still there with BetVictor & William Hill & looks worth chancing. Bolton look by far the best equipped of the relegated teams & we don't rate Leicester's chances as highly as the bookies, Wolves will lose Steven Fletcher & Kevin Doyle needs to regain form quickly whilst Wayne Hennessey has become a liability in goal for them, Blackburn have lost plenty enough players & seem to be in a mess on & off the field, Bolton are our picks for winners at 15/2 & backing them separately for promotion at 11/4 is a better idea than an each way bet.

(Craig Bellamy has rejoined Cardiff to link up with an already good Championship side & other quality summer signings)

Chasing the Trotters tail could be perennial unlucky losers Cardiff City, if they can eventually gain a deserved promotion after years of near misses their fans might just start to forgive their Malaysian owners abandonment of 104 years of tradition when changing their colours from blue (The Bluebirds) to red. Cardiff have made the playoffs for the last three years & will expect to do at least that again this year, if not gain automatic promotion, the signing of Craig Bellamy is huge & he could be the difference that drives them forward to promotion, he proved last year that his quality is still at a high level & he should hit the ground running after a successful Olympics. Bellamy joins three other substantial signings in 20 year old Jordon Mutch from Birmingham who should add quality & competition to midfield, South Korean international winger Kim Bo-Kyung (reportedly wanted by Monaco) & Slovenian forward Etien Velikonja, veteran striker Heidar Helguson has also joined but we're unsure how much game time he will actually get. Cardiff don't appear to have lost anyone they wanted to keep & will be happy with the fee they got for Kenny Miller who's moved to play in Canada for the Vancouver Whitecaps, they're clearly selling themselves well to good players as the signings they've made look to be of quality performers & with normal improvement we think Cardiff represent excellent value at 4/1 to get promoted. Odds of 4/1 imply just one in five chance of promotion for the Bluebirds but that is surely underestimating them, they've made steady progress in the last few years & maybe without the disappointment of a major cup final loss (penalties to Liverpool in the League Cup) they'll be able to push on for the whole season & make the big time for the first time in 51 years.

Selections:
Bolton to win Championship at 15/2 (William Hill) & gain promotion at 5/2 (various)
Cardiff City to gain promotion at 4/1 (various)
Benik Afobe to be top Championship goalscorer each way at 25/1 (BetVictor & William Hill) 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4