NFL Thursday Night - Steelers can flatten Browns

Week 14 in the NFL begins with an AFC North divisional game with the Cleveland Browns travelling to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, it looks like a tough matchup for the Browns who've lost 5 of their last 6 & have injuries to key players. The Steelers meanwhile are starting to really roll having won 7 of their last 8 & won impressively against Cincinnati last week, we've our usual best bets below.

(The Steelers are making a championship push & running back Isaac Redman can play a part)

The Browns rank 30th in offensive yards, the Steelers have given up the least yards in offense. The Browns rank 31st defending the run, the Steelers have stepped up their running game in recent weeks averaging 116.3 yards in the last 3 games. The Browns have quarterback Colt McCoy playing with an injured knee this week & star player, back Peyton Hillis likely to be out, all of Pittsburgh's main weapons look fit, fresh & in form. Basically this looks bad for the Browns & great for the Steelers who know they have to keep up the pressure on Baltimore as they're currently tied atop the Division but the Ravens holding a tiebreaker by beating them twice already.

The Browns do have a good pass defense but it's made to look artificially better statistically due to their dreadful run defense as teams just keep running the ball straight through them & Pittsburgh will have joy in both disciplines. On the ground Rashard Mendenhall has been looking good with 8 touchdowns this year including a couple last week, he's backed up by the hard running Isaac Redman & between them they should get some nice yardage here. Ben Roethlisberger has a great set of receivers to throw to & has been particularly successful when going to Antonio Brown recently, we're expecting him to use his full set of catchers who are all fit & healthy minus Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers have a great defense whose only weakness this year has been in not creating enough turnovers, that hasn't been too much of a problem when they keep making the opposition punt the ball & get the ball back that way, they really shouldn't be posed too many problems by Cleveland & this could be a touchdown shutout for the Browns offense. Even with the Browns decent defense we think that this could be a big win for Pittsburgh & they can cover the -14 point spread on their way to yet another win, we expect to see a nicely balanced offense & the usual great defense frustrate the Browns in every aspect of the game. For a nice value bet Isaac Redman is 25/1 to score the 1st touchdown & 9/2 with Ladbrokes to score at anytime, he's only one touchdown so far but has been handed the ball a few times in the redzone recently & looks a genuine contender especially at those prices!

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cleveland Browns with -14 points at 10/11 (general)
Isaac Redman to score 1st touchdown at 25/1 (various) & to score touchdown at anytime at 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

Champions League - Crunch time for Chelsea & City

This week sees the final round of Champions League group fixtures with seven knockout places still up for grabs. Usually our English sides have no real troubles in the group phase but this year only Arsenal have qualified (as group winners) for the last 16 so far whilst Chelsea & Man Utd can progress with as little as draws but Man City need a win plus a favourable result in the other Group A fixture to qualify.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea & Valencia battle it out for the second qualification spot to join German side Bayer Leverkusen in the next round. The permutations in this Group E encounter are: whoever prevails progresses with the losing side finishing third (meaning a dreaded Europa League place). A score draw will be enough for Valencia while a goalless result will take Chelsea through unless Leverkusen lose.

(Will Andre Villas-Boas be celebrating progression or potentially collecting his P45?)

It's well documented that Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich is desperate to win the Champions League & many managers have been axed due to their failure to do so. Therefore this is a massive game for current boss Andre Villas-Boas. Chelsea have been struggling all season defensively & have conceded goals in all bar seven of their 22 matches in all competitions & sides with a lot less attacking ability than Valencia have managed to breach them. So playing for a 0-0 draw isn't really a viable option for AVB so can they score the goals to progress? They have chopped & changed their attacking options but they seem to have settled on the trio of Mata, Drogba & Sturridge with them all scoring in recent games. Overall they have scored 31 goals in 14 league games & 10 in five Champions League games so an average of just over two goals per game.

Visitors Valencia sit 3rd in Liga & come into the game on the back of a 2-1 victory over Espanyol last weekend. They rested Jonas, Sofiane Feghouli & goal machine Roberto Soldado for the match but the latter came off the bench to score the winner in the 80th minute. Soldado is in fine form as has 14 goals in 20 games so far this season & five in as many matches in Europe. Valencia have only failed to score twice in their 14 Liga & 5 Champions league games & have conceded in over 2/3rds of these games. We expect this game to a nail biter for the all the fans involved but from a betting perspective the 5/6 on offer from bet365 for both teams to score represents a good bet & means if the game enters the final 15 minutes at 1-1 you can sit back relax & enjoy the impending chaos with your money safely banked.

(The real Super Mario (Gomez) can show why he's one of Europe's best)

Our second bet is the easiest that we've had to pick all year with Bayern Munich offering outstanding value to beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium & put the big spenders out of the Champions League in the group stage at their first attempt. The prices for this fixture seem like the preposterous ones on offer at the end of the season when relegation worried teams get shortened up against mid table sides who supposedly have little to play for, unfortunately (no matter what most dreadful pundits & commentators tell you) 'wanting it more than the other team' has little to no effect on results - Barcelona haven't won everything going because of desire, they've won because they're better than the rest.

City might be flying in the league, now that Mancini seems to have understood that attacking is important as well as defending, but they have been less than impressive in this competition with their only wins coming against pointless Villareal. The English side haven't looked to play with the same fluency as in the league & were beaten fair & square in the reverse fixture in Germany, Bayern Munich are already through as winners but still have plenty of motivation to win here, not least financial where a win is worth 800,000 euros. Man City's massive spending & hoovering up of some of the world's top talent has been noticed by the current European elite & Bayern would love nothing more than putting down a marker with a win here & also knocking out a team that could have conceivably won the competition. City will aim to keep this tight at the start but at some point will have to come at Bayern & they have the weapons to counter City especially with just about the best out & out striker around now in Mario Gomez, he has 21 goals in 22 appearances this year & is on offer at 9/4 to score at anytime. Franck Ribery seems to be coming back to form & 21 year old Toni Kroos is really emerging as a top talent, not enough can be said about how good a player Bastian Schweisteiger (injured for this one) is & they are building for the future with the young & talented centre back pairing of Badstuber & Boateng. Clearly Man City have great players & they are rolling over weaker teams & have taken advantage of uncharacteristic poor displays from the couple of top sides they've played in the league so far but they don't deserve to be red hot favourites here. Bayern Munich can be bet at massive odds of 5/1 with William Hill & have to backed from a value perspective alone.

Selections:

Both teams to score in the Chelsea vs Valencia game at 5/6 (bet365)
Bayern Munich to beat Manchester City at 5/1 (William Hill)
Mario Gomez to score at anytime at 9/4 (Stan James) in Bayern Munich v Manchester City game

Monday Night Football - Reds & Chargers to try for away wins

It's Monday Night again & that means we have action from the Premier League & NFL with Liverpool & San Diego travelling to take on Fulham & Jacksonville respectively. The Premier League is red hot at the top with a lot of teams in great form including obviously Man City but also Arsenal, Man United & especially Tottenham & Liverpool will be keen to keep pace. The playoffs look like they may be out of reach for the two teams competing in this game but they will still be fighting hard & the Chargers aren't out of the picture mathematically yet. As usual we've our best bets below & keep getting involved by following us on twitter @likebuyingmoney where we love to hear others' thoughts.

(Liverpool can grind out an ugly victory even without injured Lucas)

This week's Premier League game comes live from Craven Cottage as Fulham welcome an inform Liverpool side. Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 matches in all competitions & come into the game on the back of a 2-0 victory over Chelsea in the Carling Cup quarter finals. They have struggled to break down teams at home this season but on the road their record reads four wins & two defeats in their six league games; winning their last three in all competitions. Undoubtedly their star man is Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez who's technical & goalscoring ability has made him an instant Kop favourite (not so with opposition fans!) but they were dealt a blow this week with defensive shield Lucas Leiva picking up a season ending injury & despite a tough start in his Liverpool career for the Brazilian he has been excellent this season and Kenny Dalglish will have to pick from Jordan Henderson, Jay Spearing or the recalled Jonjo Shelvey to fill the big void left. Hosts Fulham under Martin Jol have struggled so far this season for any real consistency & sit in lowly 15th place with only two victories in their 13 league games. They have won only one of their last eight home league games (a run which started with a 2-5 hammering from Liverpool at the back end of last season) & have suffered 3-1 defeats in their last two against Spurs & Everton. We feel that in form Liverpool will be too strong for Fulham as they look to keep up with the others in the race for the Champions league places at a price of 6/5.

(Is the over reliance on Jones-Drew hurting the Jaguars?)

Monday night's are an opportunity for NFL teams to be seen nationwide but these two sides might not want to be seen as they are horrible this year with the San Diego Chargers starting off well (against bad sides) before losing their last 6 & the Jacksonville Jaguars having won just 3 games this year & sacked head coach Jack Del Rio on Tuesday. The Jaguars season has been an all round mess after having cut quarterback David Garrard at very short notice before the season started then replacement Luke McCown threw 4 interceptions in week 2 before rookie Blaine Gabbert came into the team. Gabbert was the 10th pick in the draft but has been disappointing so far with just 6 touchdown passes & 6 interceptions to match, thne Jags rank stone last in passing yards (& overall offense) & average yards per pass with a tiny 5.2 yards per completion. On the plus side Jacksonville rank 4th on defense & their star player Maurice Jones-Drew is already over 1000 yards rushing for the season with 5 TDs to boot - they really do rely on Jones-Drew & if he doesn't perform the team doesn't fire either.

The Chargers seem to have the individuals to be a very good side but their main problem has been the dreadful form of quarterback Philip Rivers, he was considered amongst the best but his accuracy & decision making has been very poor this year & has cost the team again & again. Vincent Jackson & Antonio Gates are great targets & Tolbert & Mathews are a very good running back partnership, on defense we like cornerback Quentin Jammer a lot & he can shut down many a receiver. The Jaguars are at home but don't have the noisiest support & we really can't be backing them, the Chargers aren't great against the run but are serviceable & they'll know that all they have to do is keep getting in Jones-Drew's way to totally shut them down. The Jags don't get to the opposition quarterback all that well & this might be the situation for Rivers to get his game back together & it's worth taking the risk he can & backing the Chargers with -3 points is the pick.

Selections:
Liverpool to beat Fulham at 6/5 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Jacksonville Jaguars with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 (various)

County to continue cup run

After our 15/8 winner with Cheltenham Town today can we keep the winners coming with our Sunday FA Cup & Premier League double?

(Can Jeff Hughes celebrate yet another goal against Sutton United?)

In FA Cup action we see Notts County, currently in 6th place in League One, travelling to Conference South side Sutton United & the league side appear to have been underestimated in this one. Notts County's league form has tailed off slightly, they won against Scunthorpe last time out but hadn't won in 5 before that although they did have some tough assignments in those games, overall they've been pretty tough this year & deserve their current placing. Sutton have had some big wins against some of the poorer opposition in the Conference South but have sometimes disappointed against some of the better sides, that doesn't bode well in this one & they could take a beating. County are missing Lee Hughes through suspension but have a decent pairing of Karl Hawley & Ben Burgess up front & left winger Jeff Hughes has been in great scoring form this year, often cutting in from wide & has 8 goals so far this year. BlueSquare are offering odds of 8/5 that Notts County can win starting with -1 goals & they should be bet, a cup run is always a good money spinner for a League One side & they'll play a full strength team in this & should prove too strong over 90 minutes.

Due to their Europa League participation, Stoke City have yet another 3pm Sunday kick off this time at Goodison Park against Everton. The Potters progressed into the knockout phase of Europe in the week after a 1-1 draw against Dynamo Keiv but they are can't transfer their form into the Premiership. After their four previous group fixtures they have lost all four games with an aggregate score of 1-14 with defeats to Sunderland, Swansea, Arsenal & Bolton. On the road they have always struggled & they have only managed one win in their last 16 league away games with three draws & 12 defeats. Hosts Everton made their customary slow start to the season but seem to be improving week by week; helped by key players returning from injury with Sylvain Distin, Phil Neville & Jack Rodwell likely to return tomorrow. They have won their last two games against Bolton & Wolves and are vying to win three successive league matches for the first time in 22 months. We expect Everton to be too strong for Stoke as their away day woes continue at the best price of 3/4 with Paddy Power.

Selections:

Notts County to beat Sutton United with -1 goal on the handicap at 8/5 (BlueSquare)
Everton to beat Stoke City at 3/4 (Paddy Power)
The above double pays just over 7/2

NFL Week 13 - Yee Haw! Cowboys to rustle up Cardinals

We're very nearly at the end of the regular season as we reach week 13 in the NFL & the cream has risen to the top of the respective divisions for the most part but there's still much to fight for & keeping players fit becomes key if teams are going to qualify for & progress through the playoffs. Our pre-season tip the Houston Texans are having terrible luck at quarterback first losing Matt Schaub & then backup Matt Leinart less than a half into his next start & other palyoff chasing teams are having similar problems, it gives a chink of light to the chasing teams & December should prove exciting. We've picked out our best bets as usual & will be back for the Monday night game between San Diego & Jacksonville.

(Watch out quarterbacks, Dallas' no.84 DeMarcus Ware is coming for you)

The Dallas Cowboys face an away game against the Arizona Cardinals who haven't won a game against a team with a winning record this year & Dallas fans will be wanting to avoid what they've seen so many times before with great Novembers followed by indifferent Decembers. The Cowboys have had a pretty decent season considering they weren't highly fancied at the beginning & lead the NFC East ahead of the New York Giants althought they have to face them twice before the end of the year. Dallas are ranking 12th on defense in terms of yards given up & have been pretty decent against the run which will be key to stopping the Cardinals whose key offensive weapon is running back Chris 'Beanie' Wells - he broke the teams rushing yards record last week with over 200 yards but has been struggling with injury & was reportedly sore after the game. In terms of star defensive players Dallas have just about the best in the league right now with linebacker DeMarcus Ware who has 14 sacks on the year & looks dangerous on just about every play putting opposing quarterbacks under real pressure, that is not good news for Kevin Kolb who looks set to return after 4 games out with injury. Kolb looks an average at best quarterback to us anyway, he can put a little zip on the ball but doesn't have any great arm strength or accuracy when going for long downfield passes & Dallas look to have a nice matchup for their defense this week.

(Emerging talent Laurent Robinson can continue his fine form against the Cardinals)

On the offensive side of the ball for Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has endeared himself to many with his bravery this season after getting hit in their 2nd game of the year against the 49ers, suffering a broken rib & punctured lung, yet came back into the game to lead the Cowboys to an overtime victory plus carried on playing whilst still hurting in his next games. Romo has really looked after the ball well this year with 64.5% pass completion & 21 touchdowns versus just 9 interceptions & the Cowboys rank 7th in passing yardage gained. It helps to have some of the best catchers in the league & Romo has continued to throw to his favourite target, tight end Jason Witten, plus star receiver Dez Bryant. Unfortunately wideout Miles Austin has been suffering with injury but that has allowed Laurent Robinson to emerge as one of the most dangerous players in the league right now, traded from the Rams & having his 5th season in the league surely not a lot was expected of Robinson but he's now caught 7 touchdowns in his last 5 games & looks the real deal - he'd only scored 4 TDs in his career before that! Robinson's effectiveness doesn't appear to have been rated quite high enough with the bookmakers yet & he's 9/1 to score the 1st touchdown with Paddy Power, that seems generous & should be taken. The Cowboys running game has been pretty weak for some time but rookie DeMarco Murray has been highly effective in his 1st year & has over 800 yards on the ground, he's been key in allowing the team to set up play action passes & that should cause the Cardinals problems, the Cowboys look way too strong for Arizona here & should be backed with a -4.5 point handicap.

 (Broncos linebackers Elvis Dumervil & Wesley Woodyard can cause chaos in the Vikings offense)

In the Denver Broncos against Minnesota Vikings game all that needs to be known in this one is that Adrian Peterson is out for the Vikings & without him the home side are toothless. Minnesota have been having a miserable season with just two wins & those coming against the Cardinals & Panthers, the Broncos meanwhile have really turned things around going from 2&5 to a winning record with 6&5. That Bronco turnaround has come since they installed 'alternative' quarterback Tim Tebow as the starter & employed a very run heavy offense. They've won their last 4, sometimes in dramatic late fashion, & whilst those rivals weren't great they were better than this Vikings side, the defense has played tough football & won't give Christian Ponder much time to throw & he should struggle again. One negative for the Broncos is that they will probably be without impressive young linebacker Von Miller who's been great this year but they have a good team ethic & few injury problems otherwise. We can't work out why the Broncos have been made underdogs for this game, yes the play isn't pretty but it doesn't need to be if they keep grinding out the wins, we think they can win here without too much trouble & should be backed at 11/10 with Coral.

Selections:
Dallas Cowboys to beat Arizona Cardinals with -4.5 points at Evens (Totesport & Betfred)
Laurent Robinson to score the 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (Paddy Power) in Dallas Cowboys v Arizona Cardinals game
Denver Broncos to beat Minnesota Vikings at 11/10 (Coral)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 5

After week 3 our followers were £3.71 in profit following some good picks, could they keep it up in week 4? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@allywhyte1	Raiders at -4, no Jay Cutler for Bears and Raiders have won two in a row	Raiders won 25-20 against the Bears so covered the -4 handicap spread @ 19/20 WINNER
@Ricabii	Over 3.5 goals between Newcastle United and Man United and Arsenal/Arsenal ht/ft double for nearly 5/1	The two United’s ended 1-1 after a poor penalty decision for Newcastle & Arsenal struggled to a draw with Fulham LOSER
@diggerd84	Villa to bounce back vs swans	Neither side could find the net in a dull 0-0 draw LOSER
@Jugador1984	Super witts to make it 5 in 5, anytime goalscorer	Cardiff won again but sub Mason grabbed the only goal LOSER
@Matt_Hutson	Leicester & Tranmere double	Leicester draw 1-1 with Pompey whilst Tranmere suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Exeter LOSER
@Douglie9	Robin van Persie anything goalscorer vs Fulham	RVP couldn’t keep his hot streak as Thomas Vermaelen nets at both ends LOSER
@Bet_Hunter	Hawaii -16 to beat Tulane in college football	Hawaii won 35-23 but didn’t cover the -16 handicap spread LOSER
@MrMatthewReid	Over 3.5 goals in Leeds v Barnsley	Barnsley took the Yorkshire honours with a 2-1 away victory LOSER
@gray67lufc	Middlesborough @7/4 Leicester @7/5 & Swansea @5/4	All three teams could only muster draws (counted as single bets rather than a patent) LOSER

After a disastrous week four our followers the profit has disappeared & we’re left with a current loss of -£5.34, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 3 ^rd / 4 ^th December:

@Con_27 our Sunderland supporter fancies Arsenal, Spurs & Swansea treble. Arsenal travel to struggling Wigan, Spurs host Bolton & Swansea face a six pointer against Blackburn - the treble is 6.75/1

@Brian_Laurie has picked Spurs vs Bolton, Wigan vs Arsenal, Peterborough vs Barnsley, Doncaster vs Southampton & West Ham vs Burnley ALL BTS 14/1.

@thecoldend looks for the magic of the cup with an outside bet of the weekend - Chelmsford City to beat Macclesfield Town in the #FACUP at 19/10 with skybet. Chelmsford sit 5^th in the Conference South & are looking to use home advantage against League Two outfit Macclesfield.

@Brian_Laurie with his second accumulator of Southampton, Celtic, MK Dons, Sheff Utd, Man Utd, Charlton all to win 18/1 from Paddys.

@Bazza1983 the wolves fan predicts Sunderland to win at wolves; new manager and wolves never win on tv. The fixture is live on Sky 4pm Sunday with visitors Sunderland best price of 11/5 to take the points.

@Ricabii my tip was awful last week, going to try something different: go for a double lay on Wolves and Everton. Both fixtures on Sunday & the lay on Wolves (home to Sunderland) and Everton (home to Stoke) is 3.58 on Betfair.

@Bet_Hunter our regular American Football tipster Atlanta -3 to beat Houston. 21/20 @ Skybet! Houston will struggle with 3^rd string QB.

@gray67lufc SG got the 451 right against Forest especially playing White left mid, go with a rampant lufc/Leic double @ 5.5/1. Leeds are at home to Millwall whilst Leicester face a difficult trip to Hull.

@gray67lufc Don’t forgot...MK Dons @ 4/5 away to Barnet and Cheltenham away to Luton @ 7/4 both teams on the up. We have a big fancy of Cheltenham this weekend also (won last 7 away games) & the double is just under 4/1.

@MrMatthewReid has a four team accumulator of Man Utd, Spurs, Everton & Southampton at 11/2. Form teams looking to bounce back after cup defeats, or teams playing tired/lowly opposition.

@Douglie9 is back again with A small punt on Everton -1 goal vs Stoke (15/8 hills) + I would go back in on RVP anytime scorer (8/13). After missing out last week can RVP get back on the goalscoring trail away at struggling Wigan? The double is 3.6/1.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.