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Friday, 16 March 2012

The Gloves are off, three points expected for Yeovil

After successfully tipping winners at Cheltenham we're back selecting our best weekend football bets, last weekend saw us tip 2 out of 3 (Blackburn at 11/5 and Carlisle at 5/6), we've scoured the leagues to once again bring you our top selections of the weekend. As ever if you aren't following us on Twitter already you can by clicking the follow button above or finding us @LikeBuyingMoney, it's a good way of keeping up to date with our latest posts & ask us any questions you want.

(The returning Gary Johnson has brought an upturn in fortunes for The Glovers)
In League One Yeovil Town entertain Walsall at Huish Park, Yeovil are in 15th place whilst visitors Walsall are in 20th position & are only three points outside the relegation zone. Manager Gary Johnson returned to Yeovil after spells with Bristol City, Peterborough & Northampton on the 9th January & has guided them to seven wins from eleven games. They have won three of their last four matches, with the most impressive victory away at promotion hopefuls MK Dons despite playing half the match with only ten men, in front of their home faithful Yeovil have won four out of five & only a last minute equaliser from Scunthorpe in midweek stopped a fifth consecutive home victory. Walsall are unbeaten in their last six matches & have drawn three of the last four, however they have only mustered two victories on their travels this season & have only scored 15 goals in 17 matches. We expect a free scoring Yeovil (24 goals in 11 games) to have too much firepower for Walsall & collect the three points at a best price of 13/10.

(Fulham defender Brede Hangeland can help keep Swansea's sometimes goal-shy strikers at bay)

Martin Jol's Fulham entertain Swansea City in one of the Premier League's Saturday 3 o'clock kick offs, the London club, sitting in tenth place, come into the game with very similar form to the Welsh visitors, both sides have collected 10 points from their last six matches. The Cottagers home form this season, much like last year, has been very good, with the only visiting sides victorious at Craven Cottage being Tottenham, Manchester United and Everton. If you saw either of the Tottenham or Everton games you'll probably agree Fulham were unlucky not to at least claim a point & will be looking for better here. Swansea have been lavished with praise since their promotion via the play-offs in May & highly rated Brendan Rodgers' side look comfortable on 36 points (the same as opponents Fulham) in 11th place. The's Swans so far have picked up 33% of their points on the road, winning at Wigan, West Brom and Villa - they are however all bottom half sides. With no new injury concerns Swansea are likely to go with the side that were truimphant against second placed Manchester City. Jol's Fulham will themselves field a similar line up to that of last week, Bryan Ruiz is again likely to start on the bench as the former Spurs boss prefers the three pronged attack of Dembele, Johnson and Pogrebnyak. We think Fulham will prove to strong for the travelling Swans and claim all three points, the Cottagers are best priced at 9/10 with BetVictor to win the match.


(Watford's Sean Murray & Troy Deeney have both scored two in their last three games)
In the Championship Watford host Coventry City at Vicarage Road, the Hornets are just below mid table & Coventry are in a relegation dogfight & sit in the final relegation spot. Watford have taken seven points from a possible nine in their last three league matches & only a late Ricardo Vaz Te equaliser for West Ham United put halt to a perfect record, if you exclude defeats to the current top three in the league (Southampton, West Ham & Reading) their home form is good with eight wins & four draws in 15 games, winning three of their last four home matches & scoring eight goals in the process. Coventry have struggled all season & have the worst away record in the Championship, they haven't actually won a game away from home in the league all season & have only picked up three points from a possible 51. They have lost their last ten away games in a row & their last away point came way back in October. We believe that the away day blues will continue for Coventry as Watford continue their good current form at great odds of evens with Bet365.

Towards the back end of the season you often see sides in relegation fights shortened up in matches by the bookies as poor punters fall into the trap of believing that because they 'need to win' that somehow they are going to stop being, to put it bluntly, crap. These sides are in relegation places for a reason & just because they are playing mid table sides with supposedly 'nothing to play for' doesn't suddenly make them capable of beating superior teams. As the superior punters you are (you must be to have found & be reading this!) don't fall into that trap & take great prices about better teams to give yourselves a great end to the season & fill your pockets for Euro 2012!

Selections:
Yeovil Town to beat Walsall at 13/10 (Bet365)
Fulham to beat Swansea City at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Watford to beat Coventry City at evens (Bet365)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 20

After week 18 our followers were making a £34.26 loss after a poor week, could they improve in week 19? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower
Selection
Result
@rigger60
Southampton, Chelsea & Shrewsbury
All three sides won at home without conceding a goal (@ 2.29/1)
WINNER
@Dmack4142
Over 2.5 goals - Everton against Spurs
Everton held on to a 1-0 victory over Spurs
LOSER
@Clive_Mallon
Southampton vs Barnsley over 3.5 goals
Championship leader won 2-0 against Barnsley
LOSER
@GHorsfall
Jamie Devitt to score 2+ at Southend
Nearly a fantastic shout but Jamie could only hit the net once against Southend
LOSER
@john2pele
Preston vs Scunthorpe under 2.5 goals
A bore 0-0 was played out between the two sides (@ evens)
WINNER
@grays67lufc
Blackpool and Fulham double
Both sides suffered away defeats
LOSER
@grays67lufc
+2.5 goals - Reading vs Leicester
Reading kept up their great form with a 3-1 win (@ evens)
WINNER
@LeeHooper1
Phil Mickleson and Bubba Watson ew
Bubba Watson came runner-up with Justin Rose winning the event (@ 40/1 ew so 1/5 of the odds)
WINNER
@Jugador84
Cardiff City to beat Bristol City
Two og’s gave Cardiff a 2-1 result against Bristol City (@ 7/5)
WINNER
@bowmani19
Charlton, Sheffield Wed, Torquay, Ross County & Falkirk
Two winners, two draws & one defeat puts pay to this accumulator
LOSER

Our followers’ had a very good week 19 & reduced their overall loss to -£25.57, from £1 stakes.
Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 17th / 18th March:

@grays67lufc selects Leeds to beat West Ham around 15/8 going to be some game, and can’t wait to greet #whu off the train. Enjoy the game!

@grays67lufc also picks Yeovil to beat Walsall with a few nice additions from Championship clubs Yeovil are now flying take the 5/4 asap. We also really fancy Yeovil to collect the three points tomorrow.

@grays67lufc final tip is over 2.5 goals double – Fulham/Swansea and Watford/Coventry...pays 3/1.

@GHorsfall was so close with his 55/1 selection last week & is back with Accrington’s Aristote Nsiala keeps getting on the end of Kevin McIntyre corners, 16/1 to score anytime. Ignore at your peril.

@AlexClarke91 has a treble of Southampton, Charlton & Swindon with #skybet 8/1. Can the three league leaders keep it up as Southampton travel to Millwall, Charlton go to Scunthorpe & Swindon are away at Crewe?

@stevenhoppy180 is going for Wales to win by 5 points against France at 22/1 on Paddy Power.

@RaviLakhani is looking forward to the first Grand Prix of the season and tips Vettel to win Aussie GP. Will continue to dominate this year and 6/4 is a good price.

@rigger60 has a cheeky double of Torquay (7/5) to beat Burton & Doncaster (13/10) to beat Derby. The double pays 9/2.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Thursday, 15 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival Day Four - Friday

The Cheltenham Festival is obviously great all week long but there is nothing quite like the Friday as we come to the Gold Cup & the big race is looking like a fascinating matchup between superstar Kauto Star & last year's winner Long Run. The supporting races are interesting too & we're going to try to finish off with a flourish & some more winners to follow up our banker of the week in Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, then Finian's Rainbow on Wednesday & Riverside Theatre & Big Bucks on Thursday.

(Long Run gave two greats a beating in last year's Gold Cup & can emulate it again)

We have to start off with the blue riband event of jumps racing & the Gold Cup where we find two previous winners at the head of affairs with Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star & Nicky Henderson's Long Run the two to concentrate on according to many. No one can deny that Kauto Star has been a true champion & has had a renaissance year winning the Haydock Chase & regaining the King George beating Long Run into 2nd on both occasions, but we think that there are reasons for opposing Kauto. Obviously trainer Paul Nicholls has had a somewhat disappointing week even whilst winning the Champion Hurdle & World Hurdle, Rock On Ruby was trained at a sattelite yard & Big Bucks could probably win with no legs, his runners have otherwise just not looked great & that's to be expected as a virus was at the yard just at the end of February. Kauto's jumping has also been brilliant this year & probably the best it has been but he has always been prone to throwing in some dodgy ones & has fallen twice in 6 runs at Cheltenham as well as clouting the final fence on another two occasions, only two 12 year olds have won the race, the last in 1969, & it's now three years since he won his last Gold Cup in 2009. Nicky Henderson meanwhile has been in incredible form all week & that reads well for Long Run & his stablemate Burton Port, Long Run beacme the first 6 year old since the great Mill House to win the Gold Cup last year & surely has the scope to improve on what we saw last year as he's still a baby now in chasing terms. He's never been the most fluent of jumpers & although Sam Waley-Cohen is a perfectly competent jockey he of course isn't a professional & can't be counted as a positive, that's a worry but he didn't need to jump that great to win going great guns last year & the extra 2 furlongs (from the King George) & going up the Cheltenham hill will see him at his best effect. The rest of the field have some nice types in but very little value in their prices, Burton Port was getting 10 pounds from Long Run when getting beaten, just, last time but we've a suspicion that the winner was just idling that day & had plenty left to give, Midnight Chase is a 5 time Cheltenham winner but was beaten into 5th in the race last year & any value there was in his price is gone with best odds of just 12/1 now. I've dreamt that Time For Rupert wins a race here in the past week & it was quite vivid but I can't really count that as a tip, if he does though get in touch for Saturday's Lotto numbers! At 15/8 Long Run is the one to back as he looks to stamp his class on the chasing division & set up what could be enthralling encounters with horses such as Sir Des Champs & Al Ferof next year.

(Can Grumeti (near side) & Pearl Swan (far side) battle it out up the hill again?)

The first race of the day is a race we enjoy a lot in the Triumph Hurdle, a 2m 1f race restricted to the four year olds, we were at Cheltenham for one of the key trials, the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, on the 26th January & think that race holds the key to the winner today. We backed Grumeti, a 7/4 joint favourite that day & picked up winnings on it but only after Pearl Swan was disqualified after finishing first having bumped his rival twice on the run in. Baby Mix was the other joint favourite there but trailed in last running dissapointingly but bounced back in the other key trial for this in the Adonis at Kempton, when beating another contender Sadler's Risk fair & square, Sadler's Risk just couldn't peg back Tom George's runner there but may fare better up the hill. Hisaabaat eventually came good when beating several of today's runners in the Grade One at Leopardstown but we don't fancy any from that race & are happy to stick with the 1-2 from the Cheltenham trial. Pearl Swan hasn't raced since & we've mentioned our worries about Nicholls' yard but Ruby Walsh is happy to ride ahead of any of Willie Mullins' horses so he should be backed as a cover bet, with the main selection being Alan King's Grumeti, a horse who has looked all class, subsequently won at Kempton with ease & should get a lovely tow into the race. You won't go far backing both Grumeti & Pearl Swan against the field.

(Kumbeshwar has the credentials to win the Johnny Henderson Chase)

In the last race of the Festival we reckon Kumbeshwar could end up giving Alan King a double on the day in the Johnny Henderson Chase at 5.15, he's on a reasonable mark when you look back at some of his hurdle form & should be very much suited by the large field. Kumbeshwar only just failed under a monster weight to win the Fred Winter after leading all the way last year, finished 3rd in the Adonis before that & then gave Zarkandar a race at Aintree, he takes his racing as he's gone 9 times since last Cheltenham including 5 chases against some good sorts. He won his first race, then finished second to Zaynar who ran well for a way in the Jewsons on Thursday, won again & then finished 2nd to Menorah then Kid Cassidy in 3 runner races at Kempton & Doncaster. We don't think those small fields will have suited at all & he'll relish coming back to Cheltenham, he's the youngest horse in the field & has scope for improvement. Improvement is key in any of the Cheltenham handicaps as it's not good enough to run to your handicap mark to win these races, Kumbeshwar has the qualities needed to win this & can be backed at 14/1.

Selections:
1.30 - Grumeti to win at 6/1 & Pearl Swan to win at 7/1
3.20 - Long Run to win at 15/8
5.15 - Kumbeshwar each way at 14/1

Wednesday, 14 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival Day Three - Thursday

We're over halfway through the Cheltenham Festival & Thursday's racing sees Big Bucks attempt to go for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle, a highly competitive renewal of the Ryanair Chase, some competitive handicaps & the Jewson Novices Chase. Wednesday was reasonable for us with Finians Rainbow winning but we were unlucky with Cotton Mill ducked out at the 2nd last & unseated Denis O'Reagan when in the lead pulling clear of the field with & travelling as well as eventual winner Simonsig.

(Zaynar may be sweetened up by his change of stables & is a live 25/1 chance)

Starting off in the Jewson we find Peddlers Cross at the head of the market & much has been said & written about last year's Champion Hurdle 2nd after connections opted to avoid Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle & come to this race instead but surely whatever the result here the correct decision was made as it seems unlikely Pegasus itself would have beaten that one on Tuesday! Peddlers Cross was slammed by Sprinter Sacre in his last race back in December & although there was no disgrace in that, when you do look at his overall form in chases there really isn't a lot to see as Donald McCain's charge has only had two other races, both at their local track Bangor, in low grade 3 & 5 runner races where Peddlers went off at prices of 1/8 & 2/13 so it's pretty difficult to gauge how good a chaser he is at all & we don't want to go near prices of 3/1 or lower here. 2nd favourite Sir Des Champs is a different proposition to Peddlers as he's won all of his 3 chases in Ireland including two Grade Twos & seems to be a confirmed 2m 4f specialist & won at the festival last year in the conditional jockeys hurdle so should come up the hill just fine. Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus is another that is a confirmed stayer but has only had two chases, winning both including the Grade Two Pendil but that was with one of today's rivals Zaynar unseating his rider & the other joint favourite that day Minella Class being pulled up. At odds of 25/1 Zaynar is actually the horse that interests us as he's another with a festival win under his belt with victory in the Triumph Hurdle in 2009 & also a 3rd in the Champion Hurdle in 2010, he didn't stay 3 miles in the World Hurdle last year & moved to Nick Williams stable & has had 7 races since October making him one of the most experienced chasers in the field. Zaynar is a confirmed class act & has finished 4th in the Game Spirit & BetVictor against non-novice rivals but what makes him especially interesting is the recent switch to David Pipe & that suggests that both owner & trainer think he's capable of performing here, Pipe has had big price winners at the Festival before (we were on Buena Vista last year) & this could be a great gamble, take what odds you can get, 25/1 is available as we write this!

(Riverside Theatre is a classy sort & can fly home in the Ryanair)

As we noted at the top the Ryanair Chase is highly competitive this year with 7 horses between 5/1 to 12/1, it's the de facto championship for horses too slow for the Champion Chase but that don't quite get the Gold Cup distance & is probably, slightly unfairly, a little looked down upon by purists. Somersby is near the head of affairs after winning over 2 miles in the Victor Chandler at Ascot & even though we like the runner up in that race, Finian's Rainbow, we don't like Somersby for this one as he's been beaten by Master Minded, Gauvain & finished a distant 4th in the King George as well this season, in fact his win back in October was his first in nearly two years. Noble Prince won the Jewson last year at the Festival over the distance & has since competed at a high level over two miles finishing just up behind Big Zeb twice & Blazing Tempo last time out, that's Ruby Walsh's mount here but this distance will suit Noble Prince better, even though competing over shorter we are put off by his only win since the Jewson being an uncompetitive 3 runner affair & can't be making him joint favourite. Our money will be down on Riverside Theatre, the Nicky Henderson trained horse that has only been beaten at the very highest levels over fences when coming 5th in Sizing Europe's Arkle, falling in his next race at Punchestown (their Champion Novice Chase) & finishing 2nd to Long Run, ahead of Kauto Star, in the 2010 (raced in 2011) King George. He then won the Betfair Ascot Chase with ease in 2011 & would have come here as a hot favourite but was kept off the track for a year with injury before again taking the same race this year giving Medermit & Gauvain a beating in some style, if the dreaded bounce factor doesn't happen then 5/1 is a great price & should be taken with confidence. Albertas Run could be a danger as he loves this race having won the last two renewals but he's 11 now & when you look back at those races the kind of strength you see this year probably wasn't quite there, still we wouldn't put anyone off backing what would be a hugely popular winner.

(Heavyweight Champion of the Worrrrrrrrrld!!!!! BIG BUCKS)

Big Bucks can hardly count as a tip but we think he's pretty bombproof in the World Hurdle & reckon those looking to take him on with Oscar Whisky may be trying a little too hard. Big Bucks is truly exceptional, never makes mistakes at hurdles & disposes of all rivals with consumate ease, yes he hits a flat spot in his races but that's his way & when it comes to the final 2 or 3 furlongs he regularly accelerates whilst others are slowing & over the last couple of years seems to be even better, slamming his rivals whereas before he'd only win by as far as he needed to. Oscar Whisky has never raced this distance, running over at least 4 furlongs shorter this season & also against poor opposition & that doesn't seem like the preparation needed to beat a true champion. Much has been made of his 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last year but that suddenly isn't looking so great with Hurricane Fly's ready defeat this year & Peddlers Cross going chasing & others in behind, bar Overturn, haven't done a lot for the form. Big Bucks is available at a quite huge 4/6 on Betfair as this is written & that needs to be bet & bet big, since reverting to hurdling he's won 15 in a row, looks better than ever & seems to have no rivals worth mentioning, we'd love to see him win this then be aimed at the Ascot Gold Cup in June!

Selections:
1.30 Zaynar each way at 25/1
2.40 Riverside Theatre at 5/1
3.20 Big Bucks at 4/6 (Betfair)

Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival Day Two - Wednesday

We're back followers after Sprinter Scare obliged with one of the easiest wins you'll see at the Festival to get you & us off to a great start before Zarkandar just wasn't fit enough on the day but the horse we said to back in a forecast with him, Rock On Ruby, ended up winning the Champion Hurdle. We're looking for more winners this Wednesday & one of us will be up at the track (hoping that Sizing Europe gets beat thanks to some lay bets on Betfair), you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above.

(Finian's Rainbow is all class & will look to become the Champion Chaser)

The big race on the 2nd day of the Festival is the Queen Mother Champion Chase & this year we get to see the last two winners of the race line up with strong favourite Sizing Europe looking to bat away old rival Big Zeb & the rest of the opposition in a field of 8. The last two winners probably don't have an awful lot between them although Sizing Europe gave Big Zeb a beating last time they met in a three runner race at Punchestown but that was on some very testing ground & Colm Murphy was adamant that wouldn't have suited his charge at all & you only have to go back to May 2011 where Big Zeb turned the tables around from Cheltenham when they were on pretty quick ground. Since the start of 2010 Sizing Europe has won 5 of 11 races & has lost 2 of 5 of his races since jis win in this last year & taking all of that together it just meaans that he doesn't look the 'good thing' that some people make him & is certainly opposable at odds on. Both the previous two champs are also getting on a bit with Big Zeb now 11 & Sizing Europe 10, in the past 12 runnings only the truly great Moscow Flyer has won the race whilst in double digits of age & neither of these would claim to be at the Flyer's level s we think taking them both on with a younger model would be prudent. Kauto Star's half brother Kauto Stone is the baby of the bunch here & had a promising run when 2nd to the favourite here in the Tingle Creek just before Christmas but dissappointed badly behind Riverside Theatre at Ascot & may end up finding 2m 4f is his distance in the future. We're fans of Finian's Rainbow & he's been beaten just twice since going chasing coming 2nd in the Arkle last year & then getting outstayed by Somersby at Ascot both in Grade Ones against top opposition, Arkle winners have an awesome record in this race but Captain Chris doesn't go so Finian's Rainbow is as close as we'll get this year. He has an awful lot of class about him but Barry Geraghty may need to be at his best as we're unsure a battle up the hill will totally suit but if he can deliver Finian's Rainbow late, odds of 9/2 could be made to look silly. At fancy odds of 25/1 we also have to advise an each way bet on Realt Dubh, Paul Nolan's horse finished 3rd in last year's Arkle & was right at the top of the novice chaser tree, he's not run since & that counts against him but is the one capable of springing a surprise if any are.

(Cotton Mill - unbeaten & 16/1, Yes please!)

In the 2nd race of the day the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle we think that new trainer John Ferguson can round off his incredible 1st year with a great run from Cotton Mill. Ferguson was Sheik Mohammed's bloodstock agent & he's used his connections to form an incredibly strong string of horses & at the time of writing this has had 22 winners from 61 runners this season for a strike rate of over 36% & over half finishing in the first three. Cotton Mill is unbeaten over hurdles & was always likely to be decent as he achieved a rating of 95 on the flat back in in 2010 & has been campaigned for this race with his wins coming over 2m 4f twice & then the race distance of 2m 5f at Warwick in a Grade Two. The favourite for the race is Nicky Henderson's Simonsig but the odds available look a little too short & we'd be keener on the chances of Paul Nolan's Monksland, another with 3 runs over hurdles & a Grade Two under its belt. At the odds available though Cotton Mill has to be the selection with an each way bet at 16/1.

(Grands Crus is probably good enough to compete in a Gold Cup so should win this)

For our final selection of the day we don't plan on being remotely original as we go with Grands Crus to win the RSA Chase at odds of 6/4 & we think he'll do it easily to show why a run in the Gold Cup was so strongly considered. The 2nd favourite is Bob's Worth but Grands Crus had that rival back in 3rd on Boxing Day when he won the Feltham oozing class all the way, jumping excellently to show what a good decision it was to go chasing this year. Chasing was apparently always the plan but it was never an option to stay hurdling whilst Big Bucks cleaned up the division although that great champion was the only better stayer than our selection here. Join Together doesn't deserve to be as short a price as 6/1 on form & seems to only be that price thanks to connections with Paul Nicholls training & Ruby Walsh riding & we think the biggest danger comes from First Lieutenant as he has Cheltenham form thanks to winning last year's Neptune Investement Novices Hurdle. First Lieutenant has been slightly disappointing this season though & although we know he has class it probably isn't enough to beat Grands Crus at this or any stage, David Pipe's horse can show himself to be a fully deserving favourite to come up the hill in front, casting his rivals aside as they try to make their challenges.

Selections:
2.05 Cotton Mill each way at 16/1
2.40 Grands Crus to win at 6/4
3.20 Finians Rainbow to win at 9/2
3.20 Realt Dubh each way at 25/1

Sunday, 11 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival - Day One Tuesday

The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of the jump racing season & many punters betting highlight of the year with fortunes won & lost over the course of four days of top class, competitive action between the best hurdlers & chasers from Britain & Ireland, we'll be covering the action for every day looking for value to give you an edge over the bookies. The Tuesday tends to be a real favourite day here at Like Buying Money Towers with arguably the two best novices races in the Supreme Novices Hurdle & the Arkle & then the Champion Hurdle later, it can become a bigger favourite if we can start off with some nice winners! If you aren't already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & keep up to date from the news throughout the festival.

(Hurricane Fly is a deserving favourite in the Champion Hurdle but are odds of 4/6 a bit too short?)

The big race of the day is the Champion Hurdle & Hurricane Fly is a warm order to follow up his impressive win in 2011 & make it 12 wins from 13 runs over hurdles, as impressive as 'The Fly' has been there are still reasons to oppose at the prices available & we think we've got one to beat him. Hurricane Fly is a smooth traveller in his races & that complements jockey Ruby Walsh's style but when you look back through his form, other than in the Champion Hurdle last year, it is clear that wins against top quality opposition are thin on the ground. None of the horses that Hurricane Fly beat as a novice have gone on to become top notch hurdlers, after coming 3rd to the useful, but no more than that, Solwhit on his first foray out of novice company he then beat that rival 4 times in a row with one of today's rivals, the limited Thousand Stars also in behind 3 of those times. It's arguable that last year's Champion Hurdle was great as several of those in behind have gone chasing or stepped up in distance this season including the runner up Peddler's Cross. Ok we know that a horse can only beat what's in front of it but the crop over the last couple of seasons really doesn't seem to have the strength of a few years back when the likes of Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca & Macs Joy amongst others were battling out all the best races. It looks to us like the younger generation can come & provide a real challenge here to the last two winners of the race as we also have the similarly smooth travelling 2010 Champion Binocular in attendance, when Binocular's on his game he can look spectacular but there's always a suspicion that he's looking better than he really is & we were surprised, & impressed, by the battling win against Rock On Ruby at Kempton in the Christmas  Hurdle as we expected Binocular to fold under pressure.

(Zarkandar can show class & toughness to become the Champion Hurdler)

With two similar types at the top of the market our interest lies with last year's Triumph winner Zarkandar, Paul Nicholls gelding is a brother to the outstanding Arc winner Zakava & is unbeaten over hurdles in four tries, winning the Grade 2 Adonis on debut, then Grade Ones before making a comeback after 10 months out to show his outstanding grit & stamina to win a hugely competitive handicap in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. The Triumph form has stood up excellently with just about everything in the race winning since & some good races at that & Zarkandar looks the best of them with the requisite class to compete at the highest level but also the stamina that could prove crucial up the Cheltenham hill. This race will almost certainly be run to suit as Paul Nicholls has 3 other runners in the race & they will surely set this up for Zarkandar's finishing thrust, similarly to Big Bucks, Zarkandar has seemed to hit flat spots, both here last year & at Newbury last time but once the finishing line is in sight we expect him to eat up the ground like before & get up to leave his rivals trailing & become one of the great 5 year old winners like See You Then or Night Nurse, at odds of 7/1 Zarkandar can be the winner. We also think that th ultra consistent Rock On Ruby is now at the right distance after being just touched off as a novice over 2m 4f by Bob's Worth & then First Lieutenant at Cheltenham last season, he won the Gerry Feilden Hurdle impressively before being beaten by just a neck by Binocular on Boxing Day & should still be improving. With the improvement we'd expect from Rock On Ruby there's every chance a place may be available & with us being keen on Zarkandar a small bet on the straight forecast Zarkandar to beat Rock On Ruby could offer a large payout.

(Sprinter Sacre - just too damn good)

A favourite we do like the look of is the excellent Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, a horse that many shrewd judges have picked as their banker of the festival & looks to us as being worth his short price at a shade of odds on as he'd surely be a serious contender for the Champion Chase if trainer Nicky Henderson had decided to send him there as a novice. Sprinter Sacre was a top notch novice hurdler & finished 3rd in the Supreme last year behind his biggest rival here Al Ferof, but he was always going to make a better chaser & that goes some way to explaining why Barry Geraghty was on stablemate Spirit Son that day, he now reckons that this may be the best two mile chaser he's ridden & he was Moscow Flyer's regular jockey! On just his second chase Sprinter Sacre slammed Peddlers Cross & has forced that rival to swerve this & go for the Jewson instead & last time out he beat older horses with consumate ease in the Game Spirit at Newbury, a race that has been won by numerous Champion Chasers including Azertyuiop & Master Minded. He's yet to make a single jumping error at his fences & has been spectacular at times but the same couldn't be said of 4th favourite Menorah who has failed to complete in two of five chases & whose only wins have come in three runner races at Taunton & Newbury. Cue Card was a hot favourite in the Supreme Novices last year but only trailed in 4th behind Al Ferof & Sprinter Sacre & has been raced only over further than this since, he's high class but it remains to be seen whether his jumping will hold up at what is likely to be a frenetic pace. Al Ferof is the main danger & warrants respect as this is a horse with Grade One & Two novice chase wins & an impressive 3rd in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase against top class older horses, finishing close up behind Somersby & Finians Rainbow & showing form that would be more than good enough to win an Arkle normally but maybe not this year. Another worry with Al Ferof is that connections think this trip may be on the short side & they plan to step up to 3 miles next year with the King George a distinct possibility. With already excellent form, awesome jumping & doubts about his rivals Sprinter Sacre really does look the proverbial Festival Banker & should be backed at 10/11.

Selections:
2.05 Sprinter Sacre to win at 10/11 (Paddy Power)
3.20 Zarkandar to win at 7/1 (Betfair)
3.20 Straight Forecast - Zarkandar to beat Rock On Ruby