Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Two Wednesday

The second day of the Festival & we'll see the shortest priced runner of the week as Sprinter Sacre lines up in the feature race of the day, that should be a spectacle but maybe not a betting proposition, instead check out our thoughts below for a guide to the day's racing. Tuesday saw us draw a blank as we opposed Hurricane Fly (the horse ran a mightily impressive race) & My Tent Or Yours just wouldn't go past Champagne Fever after travelling like a sure fire winner, it was only two selections though & we'll hope for better here.

3.20 - Champion Chase

Lets get this out of the way first - Sprinter Sacre is a monstrous horse in this two mile division & we're not keen to take on Henderson's wonder horse here, but there is possibly some value to be had in the 'without the favourite' market & that's what we'll concentrate on.

(Sprinter Sacre looks nigh on unbeatable in the Champion Chase)

Sizing Europe heads the without Sprinter Sacre market at a top price of evens & it's fair enough that he should as a two-time festival winner, first off in the Arkle & then following up (as many Arkle winners do) in this race two years ago. Some reckoned Sizing Europe to be unfortunate when losing narrowly to Finians Rainbow last year when short of room as they omitted the final fence & Sizing's form since has been impeccable since with two Grade One wins & three Grade Twos from 5 starts & a couple of those victories came over 4 furlongs further suggesting a relative stamina test (with soft conditions) will not be a problem. The key to winning the race without Sprinter Sacre however may lie in not taking that horse on at all & instead concentrating on getting that 2nd spot - it will be hard for Andrew Lynch not to at least try to take on Sprinter Sacre as he sits on a past Champion Chaser & that could mean this one gets tired before the end & the value could lie elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire has looked impressive at times this season but it was hard not to be disappointed with his last run at this track when finishing just 4th behind Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase & with very similar conditions in this race we have to look for another to finish 2nd. Mail de Bievre has only run once in the UK since 2009 after moving to Tom George's stable from France after previously being a bumper horse with Alan King but that run was one that was full of promise after going exceptionally well for a long way before tiring against Gold Cup prospects Silviniaco Conti & The Giant Bolster in the Denman Chase at Newbury. It certainly seemed like a step back in distance was what was needed for this one but dropping back a full mile isn't easy & they'll go a fair clip in this one, conditions however will help & the ground will be typical of the type it's run on in France, with a bit of market support we're going to side with Mail de Bievre to chase the favourite home at odds of 6/1.

(Mail de Bievre can plough through the soft ground to chase the winner home)

Wishfull Thinking ran a poor race at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase just after Christmas but either side of that has won well in soft conditions at this distance here at Cheltenham when slamming inferior rivals & then when beating some useful types including French Opera (giving that one 6 pounds) with a rousing finish, going away, at Newbury. The race here should be run to suit & Richard Johnson can ride his usual waiting race & pick off rivals as they tire towards the end of the race, Wishfull Thinking is a two-time Cheltenham winner already but is maybe not a big enough price to consider as value when you exclude the favourite. The horse crashed out dramatically at the 4th fence last year, wiping out a photographer (we were posted on the rails directly opposite & got a great view!), & isn't always the most fluent jumper so is just a little too risky a proposition.

2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Another red hot favourite runs in the novices hurdle over 2m4f with Pont Alexandre heading the market at top odds of 7/4 & it's difficult to do down the chances of Willie Mullins' horse that won a Grade One over the distance on debut & then followed up with a facile success again over the distance in a Grade Two. Both of those wins came in heavy ground & Pont Alexandre made all so there appear to be no fears with regards tactics but we are reluctant to get too sucked in when the horse doesn't appear to have beaten any rivals of particular note.

(The Twiston-Davies's will be hoping The New One can win the Neptune)

We were at Cheltenham when The New One was narrowly headed by At Fishers Cross in a trial race for this in January & the form of the race looks rock solid with the pair pulling clear of two-time Grade Two winner Coneygree & the winner of the race now heads the market for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. The New One was maybe unlucky to lose that last race as he was only headed late on & had little time to try to battle back, he'd already won another two trial races for this, one in a class two here & another when smashing the field in a Grade Two at Warwick. Sam Twiston-Davies will need to be more patient with his charge in this one than he was when beaten by At Fishers Cross but with Pont Alexandre looking likely to be a target to aim at The New One can be delivered late & outbattle his less experienced rival, odds of 9/2 for a horse proven in conditions look decent.

Taquin Du Seuil is certainly a worthy opponent too as he's only been beaten once in his British racing career & that was by the potentially very high class My Tent Or Yours. Rule The World & Chatterbox are other big contenders but Puffin Billy was well beaten by Melodic Rendezvous last time & looks like he may be one to avoid for the time being.

Selections:
3.20 - Mail de Bievre to win without Sprinter Sacre at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Boylesports)
2.05 - The New One to win at 9/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Festival Day Two - Wednesday

We're back followers after Sprinter Scare obliged with one of the easiest wins you'll see at the Festival to get you & us off to a great start before Zarkandar just wasn't fit enough on the day but the horse we said to back in a forecast with him, Rock On Ruby, ended up winning the Champion Hurdle. We're looking for more winners this Wednesday & one of us will be up at the track (hoping that Sizing Europe gets beat thanks to some lay bets on Betfair), you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above.

(Finian's Rainbow is all class & will look to become the Champion Chaser)

The big race on the 2nd day of the Festival is the Queen Mother Champion Chase & this year we get to see the last two winners of the race line up with strong favourite Sizing Europe looking to bat away old rival Big Zeb & the rest of the opposition in a field of 8. The last two winners probably don't have an awful lot between them although Sizing Europe gave Big Zeb a beating last time they met in a three runner race at Punchestown but that was on some very testing ground & Colm Murphy was adamant that wouldn't have suited his charge at all & you only have to go back to May 2011 where Big Zeb turned the tables around from Cheltenham when they were on pretty quick ground. Since the start of 2010 Sizing Europe has won 5 of 11 races & has lost 2 of 5 of his races since jis win in this last year & taking all of that together it just meaans that he doesn't look the 'good thing' that some people make him & is certainly opposable at odds on. Both the previous two champs are also getting on a bit with Big Zeb now 11 & Sizing Europe 10, in the past 12 runnings only the truly great Moscow Flyer has won the race whilst in double digits of age & neither of these would claim to be at the Flyer's level s we think taking them both on with a younger model would be prudent. Kauto Star's half brother Kauto Stone is the baby of the bunch here & had a promising run when 2nd to the favourite here in the Tingle Creek just before Christmas but dissappointed badly behind Riverside Theatre at Ascot & may end up finding 2m 4f is his distance in the future. We're fans of Finian's Rainbow & he's been beaten just twice since going chasing coming 2nd in the Arkle last year & then getting outstayed by Somersby at Ascot both in Grade Ones against top opposition, Arkle winners have an awesome record in this race but Captain Chris doesn't go so Finian's Rainbow is as close as we'll get this year. He has an awful lot of class about him but Barry Geraghty may need to be at his best as we're unsure a battle up the hill will totally suit but if he can deliver Finian's Rainbow late, odds of 9/2 could be made to look silly. At fancy odds of 25/1 we also have to advise an each way bet on Realt Dubh, Paul Nolan's horse finished 3rd in last year's Arkle & was right at the top of the novice chaser tree, he's not run since & that counts against him but is the one capable of springing a surprise if any are.

(Cotton Mill - unbeaten & 16/1, Yes please!)

In the 2nd race of the day the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle we think that new trainer John Ferguson can round off his incredible 1st year with a great run from Cotton Mill. Ferguson was Sheik Mohammed's bloodstock agent & he's used his connections to form an incredibly strong string of horses & at the time of writing this has had 22 winners from 61 runners this season for a strike rate of over 36% & over half finishing in the first three. Cotton Mill is unbeaten over hurdles & was always likely to be decent as he achieved a rating of 95 on the flat back in in 2010 & has been campaigned for this race with his wins coming over 2m 4f twice & then the race distance of 2m 5f at Warwick in a Grade Two. The favourite for the race is Nicky Henderson's Simonsig but the odds available look a little too short & we'd be keener on the chances of Paul Nolan's Monksland, another with 3 runs over hurdles & a Grade Two under its belt. At the odds available though Cotton Mill has to be the selection with an each way bet at 16/1.

(Grands Crus is probably good enough to compete in a Gold Cup so should win this)

For our final selection of the day we don't plan on being remotely original as we go with Grands Crus to win the RSA Chase at odds of 6/4 & we think he'll do it easily to show why a run in the Gold Cup was so strongly considered. The 2nd favourite is Bob's Worth but Grands Crus had that rival back in 3rd on Boxing Day when he won the Feltham oozing class all the way, jumping excellently to show what a good decision it was to go chasing this year. Chasing was apparently always the plan but it was never an option to stay hurdling whilst Big Bucks cleaned up the division although that great champion was the only better stayer than our selection here. Join Together doesn't deserve to be as short a price as 6/1 on form & seems to only be that price thanks to connections with Paul Nicholls training & Ruby Walsh riding & we think the biggest danger comes from First Lieutenant as he has Cheltenham form thanks to winning last year's Neptune Investement Novices Hurdle. First Lieutenant has been slightly disappointing this season though & although we know he has class it probably isn't enough to beat Grands Crus at this or any stage, David Pipe's horse can show himself to be a fully deserving favourite to come up the hill in front, casting his rivals aside as they try to make their challenges.

Selections:
2.05 Cotton Mill each way at 16/1
2.40 Grands Crus to win at 6/4
3.20 Finians Rainbow to win at 9/2
3.20 Realt Dubh each way at 25/1