Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Followers' Best Bets

Cheltenham Festival is great - I think that most punters can agree on that but although it can be a week where you can win a fortune there's also the potential to lose one too! We've asked followers to send their best bets of the week so you can keep track of how they're doing & who knows maybe we'll end up with a consensus on what the best bets are...

Here we go then, below you'll see the follower's Twitter name & their selection along with the race & day that race is on. Good luck to all of you (unless you're opposing our selections!). If you send your best pick of the week through to us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney we'll add to the bottom of this list below.

Followers' best Cheltenham 2013 bets:

(The Jeremy Scott trained Melodic Rendezvous is popular amongst our followers)

@Clive_Mallon - Reve De Sivola in the World Hurdle on Thursday at 5/1 (Ladbrokes).

@CMcKenna81 - Road To Riches in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Friday at 16/1 (SkyBet, Totesport & Betfred), he also likes the chances of Melodic Rendezvous (Supreme Novices) & Boston Bob (The RSA looks likely).

@andrewdeighan - Un Atout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday at 8/1 (General) (This is the Festival's opening race so good luck Andrew - hope it's a great start!).

@CTGBreathnach - is opposing Andrew above & going for Melodic Rendezvous in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday at 10/1. (Melodic Rendezvous is trained out at my hometown so I'll be trying to hear whether there are any local whispers - update: there apparently has been a potential virus scare so could be one to avoid)

(Talked up as a Gold Cup prospect last year, Hunt Ball goes for the Byrne Group Plate)

@AndyMehers - Likes David Pipe's potential handicap blot Ballynagour in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday & the odds at time of checking were 5/1 (Ladbrokes & William Hill).

@bartiestagg - is going for Our Mick at 7/1 (Bet365 & William Hill) in the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

@stuie28 - liked China Rock with a run in the Ryanair (it doesn't go) but also Captain Chris in the Gold Cup on Friday at tasty odds of 16/1 (General). He also reckons Hurricane Fly & Dyanste are the lays of the meeting. (We agree with one of these so check back to find out!)

@OgilvieJamie - goes for Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday at 7/1 reckoning his owner will have placed him well to recoup some betting losses. (I've got Hunt Ball as a horse to avoid until his handicap mark drops a bit more)

@Broony_Steve - has three fancies in Bob's Worth (Gold Cup), At Fishers Cross (probably the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) & Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle).

Cheltenham Festival Day Four - Friday

The Cheltenham Festival is obviously great all week long but there is nothing quite like the Friday as we come to the Gold Cup & the big race is looking like a fascinating matchup between superstar Kauto Star & last year's winner Long Run. The supporting races are interesting too & we're going to try to finish off with a flourish & some more winners to follow up our banker of the week in Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, then Finian's Rainbow on Wednesday & Riverside Theatre & Big Bucks on Thursday.

(Long Run gave two greats a beating in last year's Gold Cup & can emulate it again)

We have to start off with the blue riband event of jumps racing & the Gold Cup where we find two previous winners at the head of affairs with Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star & Nicky Henderson's Long Run the two to concentrate on according to many. No one can deny that Kauto Star has been a true champion & has had a renaissance year winning the Haydock Chase & regaining the King George beating Long Run into 2nd on both occasions, but we think that there are reasons for opposing Kauto. Obviously trainer Paul Nicholls has had a somewhat disappointing week even whilst winning the Champion Hurdle & World Hurdle, Rock On Ruby was trained at a sattelite yard & Big Bucks could probably win with no legs, his runners have otherwise just not looked great & that's to be expected as a virus was at the yard just at the end of February. Kauto's jumping has also been brilliant this year & probably the best it has been but he has always been prone to throwing in some dodgy ones & has fallen twice in 6 runs at Cheltenham as well as clouting the final fence on another two occasions, only two 12 year olds have won the race, the last in 1969, & it's now three years since he won his last Gold Cup in 2009. Nicky Henderson meanwhile has been in incredible form all week & that reads well for Long Run & his stablemate Burton Port, Long Run beacme the first 6 year old since the great Mill House to win the Gold Cup last year & surely has the scope to improve on what we saw last year as he's still a baby now in chasing terms. He's never been the most fluent of jumpers & although Sam Waley-Cohen is a perfectly competent jockey he of course isn't a professional & can't be counted as a positive, that's a worry but he didn't need to jump that great to win going great guns last year & the extra 2 furlongs (from the King George) & going up the Cheltenham hill will see him at his best effect. The rest of the field have some nice types in but very little value in their prices, Burton Port was getting 10 pounds from Long Run when getting beaten, just, last time but we've a suspicion that the winner was just idling that day & had plenty left to give, Midnight Chase is a 5 time Cheltenham winner but was beaten into 5th in the race last year & any value there was in his price is gone with best odds of just 12/1 now. I've dreamt that Time For Rupert wins a race here in the past week & it was quite vivid but I can't really count that as a tip, if he does though get in touch for Saturday's Lotto numbers! At 15/8 Long Run is the one to back as he looks to stamp his class on the chasing division & set up what could be enthralling encounters with horses such as Sir Des Champs & Al Ferof next year.

(Can Grumeti (near side) & Pearl Swan (far side) battle it out up the hill again?)

The first race of the day is a race we enjoy a lot in the Triumph Hurdle, a 2m 1f race restricted to the four year olds, we were at Cheltenham for one of the key trials, the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, on the 26th January & think that race holds the key to the winner today. We backed Grumeti, a 7/4 joint favourite that day & picked up winnings on it but only after Pearl Swan was disqualified after finishing first having bumped his rival twice on the run in. Baby Mix was the other joint favourite there but trailed in last running dissapointingly but bounced back in the other key trial for this in the Adonis at Kempton, when beating another contender Sadler's Risk fair & square, Sadler's Risk just couldn't peg back Tom George's runner there but may fare better up the hill. Hisaabaat eventually came good when beating several of today's runners in the Grade One at Leopardstown but we don't fancy any from that race & are happy to stick with the 1-2 from the Cheltenham trial. Pearl Swan hasn't raced since & we've mentioned our worries about Nicholls' yard but Ruby Walsh is happy to ride ahead of any of Willie Mullins' horses so he should be backed as a cover bet, with the main selection being Alan King's Grumeti, a horse who has looked all class, subsequently won at Kempton with ease & should get a lovely tow into the race. You won't go far backing both Grumeti & Pearl Swan against the field.

(Kumbeshwar has the credentials to win the Johnny Henderson Chase)

In the last race of the Festival we reckon Kumbeshwar could end up giving Alan King a double on the day in the Johnny Henderson Chase at 5.15, he's on a reasonable mark when you look back at some of his hurdle form & should be very much suited by the large field. Kumbeshwar only just failed under a monster weight to win the Fred Winter after leading all the way last year, finished 3rd in the Adonis before that & then gave Zarkandar a race at Aintree, he takes his racing as he's gone 9 times since last Cheltenham including 5 chases against some good sorts. He won his first race, then finished second to Zaynar who ran well for a way in the Jewsons on Thursday, won again & then finished 2nd to Menorah then Kid Cassidy in 3 runner races at Kempton & Doncaster. We don't think those small fields will have suited at all & he'll relish coming back to Cheltenham, he's the youngest horse in the field & has scope for improvement. Improvement is key in any of the Cheltenham handicaps as it's not good enough to run to your handicap mark to win these races, Kumbeshwar has the qualities needed to win this & can be backed at 14/1.

Selections:
1.30 - Grumeti to win at 6/1 & Pearl Swan to win at 7/1
3.20 - Long Run to win at 15/8
5.15 - Kumbeshwar each way at 14/1