Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Three Thursday

Thursday of the Festival & attendees will get the bonus of the Cross Country race getting run here after not going ahead on Tuesday, there is a whole day of competitive & top class racing. It remains to be seen whether Willie Mullins can continue to get the winners - we're hoping for one of his at a big price! The New One won easily for us yesterday at advised odds of 9/2 & with just four selections so far we're in profit - picking one in every race just isn't our style & we'd much rather be selective & turn a profit than pick several winners & still end up losing money!

2.40 - Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair has grown in stature as a race over the years & it has claims to be considered up there with some of the true championship races at the festival now, certainly the World Hurdle at least, & this year sees a high class field again including two-time winner Albertas Run & last year's victor Riverside Theatre. It's competitive too with 7 of the 8 runners trading at odds of 14/1 or shorter & everyone of them having an official rating of 155+, we think there's value in the race & will be going for a horse that is progressive yet already proven as well.

(Winners of the last 3 Ryanair Chases - Riverside Theatre & Albertas Run line up again)

Albertas Run deserves maximum respect as it's a horse with a great record in the race after finishing 2nd last year to follow its two wins in 2010 & 2011 plus a win as a novice chaser in the RSA, but Jonjo O'Neill's bay gelding now hasn't run for nearly a year after failing at Aintree. The horse clearly goes well fresh but time has surely got to catch up with him at some point & at 12 years old it could be this time around & we'll reluctantly pass by. Last year's winner Riverside Theatre has only raced once since Aintree last year, when failing to see out the distance in the King George, & is another that can go well fresh & looks certain to stay up the hill strongly as he did last year to win under a rousing Barry Geraghty ride, we're just a bit concerned that this year's race looks a touch stronger & after only just prevailing last time it's a harder task this time around.

The favourite for the race at the time of writing is First Lieutenant & Mouse Morris's horse has some top class form but does struggle to win & hasn't passed the post in front since November 2011, that isn't necessarily a worry as the horse has some great festival form with a Neptune Novices Hurdle win in 2011 & a 2nd (to this year's Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth) in last year's RSA. First Lieutenant has however looked a stayer to us & was only just touched off in the Lexus in Ireland over 4 furlongs further, it seems he's running in this race in an effort to avoid Bob's Worth & we'd rather go with a horse that looks a specialist at the distance, especially when the price is so short.

(Cue Card looks all class to us & can win the 2m4f championship)

Cue Card looks the one to concentrate on here as Colin Tizzard's gelding came 2nd in last year's top novice race the Arkle behind the virtually unbeatable Sprinter Sacre & has since only gone down when trying to step up to 3 miles in the King George after travelling nicely for a way before blowing up. Before that Cue Card had smashed the field (including rival here Menorah) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & then last time he took advantage of a terrible blunder from Captain Chris to win the Ascot Chase, he may have won already that day & the race looks a nice trial for this one. Cue Card looks a nice jumper & should be able to cope with whatever tactics are employed in the race & looks the winner at odds of 100/30.

Champion Court & Menorah are the other horses priced in single figures but Menorah looks well held on that Exeter run with Cue Card & Champion Court may be being overrated for the King George run when showing his best form for some time & next time out couldn't beat the mare Alasi so we're happily swerving both of these.

3.20 - World Hurdle

(Reve de Sivola & Oscar Whisky head the World Hurdle betting but we'll pass over)

The World Hurdle this year is obviously missing its star turn in the incomparable Big Bucks but it actually now make the race a very exciting betting event, but not necessarily an easy one to pick the winner from! Oscar Whisky looks like it may head the market but was well beaten last year when not appearing to stay & was outbattled in a war of a race in the key trial for this by Reve de Sivola, that race could have left its mark on both of the horses & in an open affair we'll leave both alone.

Peddlers Cross is probably the most interesting horse in the race as a former Champion Hurdle runner up & he looked a top chasing prospect & has actually started an odds on favourite against Sprinter Sacre before! He won the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2010 & that would be the best indicator in terms of novice races for this, he's never raced quite this far & wasn't exactly electrifying when winning at 1/5 a month ago at Musselburgh. We're just a little concerned that this race may come a little too soon for Peddlers Cross after a problem before his season started seems to have really set back Donald McCain's star.

(So Young could spring a surprise at 25/1)

At a very big price we like the look of So Young as a live contender, he's a Willie Mullins horse & that stable has been dominating the festival so far so we wouldn't be surprised to see this one backed in from current odds of 25/1. He was a 2/1 favourite for the Neptune two years back & then an odds on favourite for the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle which shows how good a novice the horse was but he was well beaten in this race last year & then raced disappointingly next time at Fairyhouse. Since then however So Young appears to have raced nicely with a 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown & then a 2nd behind the very decent Solwhit, it was his last race that took the eye though with a comprehensive defeat of stablemate Zaidpour (another that's looked full of promise at a time) & we think So Young may be on an upward curve - in an open race we like the look of it as an each way bet at 25/1.

Selections:
2.40 - Cue Card to win at 100/30 (Various)
3.20 - So Young each way at 25/1 (General)

Cheltenham Festival Day Three - Thursday

We're over halfway through the Cheltenham Festival & Thursday's racing sees Big Bucks attempt to go for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle, a highly competitive renewal of the Ryanair Chase, some competitive handicaps & the Jewson Novices Chase. Wednesday was reasonable for us with Finians Rainbow winning but we were unlucky with Cotton Mill ducked out at the 2nd last & unseated Denis O'Reagan when in the lead pulling clear of the field with & travelling as well as eventual winner Simonsig.

(Zaynar may be sweetened up by his change of stables & is a live 25/1 chance)

Starting off in the Jewson we find Peddlers Cross at the head of the market & much has been said & written about last year's Champion Hurdle 2nd after connections opted to avoid Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle & come to this race instead but surely whatever the result here the correct decision was made as it seems unlikely Pegasus itself would have beaten that one on Tuesday! Peddlers Cross was slammed by Sprinter Sacre in his last race back in December & although there was no disgrace in that, when you do look at his overall form in chases there really isn't a lot to see as Donald McCain's charge has only had two other races, both at their local track Bangor, in low grade 3 & 5 runner races where Peddlers went off at prices of 1/8 & 2/13 so it's pretty difficult to gauge how good a chaser he is at all & we don't want to go near prices of 3/1 or lower here. 2nd favourite Sir Des Champs is a different proposition to Peddlers as he's won all of his 3 chases in Ireland including two Grade Twos & seems to be a confirmed 2m 4f specialist & won at the festival last year in the conditional jockeys hurdle so should come up the hill just fine. Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus is another that is a confirmed stayer but has only had two chases, winning both including the Grade Two Pendil but that was with one of today's rivals Zaynar unseating his rider & the other joint favourite that day Minella Class being pulled up. At odds of 25/1 Zaynar is actually the horse that interests us as he's another with a festival win under his belt with victory in the Triumph Hurdle in 2009 & also a 3rd in the Champion Hurdle in 2010, he didn't stay 3 miles in the World Hurdle last year & moved to Nick Williams stable & has had 7 races since October making him one of the most experienced chasers in the field. Zaynar is a confirmed class act & has finished 4th in the Game Spirit & BetVictor against non-novice rivals but what makes him especially interesting is the recent switch to David Pipe & that suggests that both owner & trainer think he's capable of performing here, Pipe has had big price winners at the Festival before (we were on Buena Vista last year) & this could be a great gamble, take what odds you can get, 25/1 is available as we write this!

(Riverside Theatre is a classy sort & can fly home in the Ryanair)

As we noted at the top the Ryanair Chase is highly competitive this year with 7 horses between 5/1 to 12/1, it's the de facto championship for horses too slow for the Champion Chase but that don't quite get the Gold Cup distance & is probably, slightly unfairly, a little looked down upon by purists. Somersby is near the head of affairs after winning over 2 miles in the Victor Chandler at Ascot & even though we like the runner up in that race, Finian's Rainbow, we don't like Somersby for this one as he's been beaten by Master Minded, Gauvain & finished a distant 4th in the King George as well this season, in fact his win back in October was his first in nearly two years. Noble Prince won the Jewson last year at the Festival over the distance & has since competed at a high level over two miles finishing just up behind Big Zeb twice & Blazing Tempo last time out, that's Ruby Walsh's mount here but this distance will suit Noble Prince better, even though competing over shorter we are put off by his only win since the Jewson being an uncompetitive 3 runner affair & can't be making him joint favourite. Our money will be down on Riverside Theatre, the Nicky Henderson trained horse that has only been beaten at the very highest levels over fences when coming 5th in Sizing Europe's Arkle, falling in his next race at Punchestown (their Champion Novice Chase) & finishing 2nd to Long Run, ahead of Kauto Star, in the 2010 (raced in 2011) King George. He then won the Betfair Ascot Chase with ease in 2011 & would have come here as a hot favourite but was kept off the track for a year with injury before again taking the same race this year giving Medermit & Gauvain a beating in some style, if the dreaded bounce factor doesn't happen then 5/1 is a great price & should be taken with confidence. Albertas Run could be a danger as he loves this race having won the last two renewals but he's 11 now & when you look back at those races the kind of strength you see this year probably wasn't quite there, still we wouldn't put anyone off backing what would be a hugely popular winner.

(Heavyweight Champion of the Worrrrrrrrrld!!!!! BIG BUCKS)

Big Bucks can hardly count as a tip but we think he's pretty bombproof in the World Hurdle & reckon those looking to take him on with Oscar Whisky may be trying a little too hard. Big Bucks is truly exceptional, never makes mistakes at hurdles & disposes of all rivals with consumate ease, yes he hits a flat spot in his races but that's his way & when it comes to the final 2 or 3 furlongs he regularly accelerates whilst others are slowing & over the last couple of years seems to be even better, slamming his rivals whereas before he'd only win by as far as he needed to. Oscar Whisky has never raced this distance, running over at least 4 furlongs shorter this season & also against poor opposition & that doesn't seem like the preparation needed to beat a true champion. Much has been made of his 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last year but that suddenly isn't looking so great with Hurricane Fly's ready defeat this year & Peddlers Cross going chasing & others in behind, bar Overturn, haven't done a lot for the form. Big Bucks is available at a quite huge 4/6 on Betfair as this is written & that needs to be bet & bet big, since reverting to hurdling he's won 15 in a row, looks better than ever & seems to have no rivals worth mentioning, we'd love to see him win this then be aimed at the Ascot Gold Cup in June!

Selections:
1.30 Zaynar each way at 25/1
2.40 Riverside Theatre at 5/1
3.20 Big Bucks at 4/6 (Betfair)