We're going to Graceland, Graceland - Memphis Tennessee

Chester's May meeting is always well attended & gets some good horses running at it, especially considering the individual nature of the Roodee track with horses constantly running counter clockwise bends. Friday is the final day of the meeting & sees Group 3 races the Dee & Ormonde stakes with the races bringing together horses from some of the top trainers including last weekend's dual Guineas winner Aidan O'Brien. We're going to duck out of having a look at the Dee stakes as it looks a tough one & value may be thin on the ground but we like the look of one for the Ormonde & what looks a competitive little handicap in the later 7 furlong race.

(Memphis Tennessee (dark colours) coming 3rd in the Irish Derby)

In the 1m5f Ormonde stakes it looks like being a straight shootout between footballer Michael Owen's Brown Panther & O'Brien's Memphis Tennessee, both horses have some excellent form from 2011 & now have to prove that they are able to compete in top races as older horses this year. Brown Panther was runner up in the St Leger on good to firm ground & has only encountered soft ground the once in his career but won a top handicap easily on that occasion & on pedigree, being by Shirocco, he should handle the heavy ground here at Chester. Memphis Tennessee also has top class form though after finishing 4th in the English Derby & then 3rd in the Irish equivalent, he hasn't been seen since but O'Brien's string look in top form & he should have this one ready for the race. An 11 month break is slightly concerning but Brown Panther is also making his seasonal debut after 8 months off & you'd be hard pressed to argue that Tom Dascombe is better at getting one ready than O'Brien. Brown Panther probably has more chance of going on the prevailing ground but Memphis Tennessee is by Hurricane Run so it shouldn't prove too problematic & we'd rather take the odds of 6/5 on the Irish raider than Evens about the local horse, getting so close in both the English & Irish Derby suggests he was near the top of the tree of 3 year olds & if progressing this year could pick up some nice prizes.

In the 3.40 race we find it hard to get away from the chances of April Fool - a horse in the form of its life at the grand old age of 8. Now in his second spell with trainer Ron Harris this Pivotal gelding has always been a winning sort with 15 successes from 56 runs & every single one of those wins have come when making all - the perfect tactic at this racetrack & his jockey today has the perfect inside draw to work with. Soft ground may have been a worry as he's rarely encountered it but last time at Brighton (another difficult track to handle) he seemed to cope with the ground well when winning. Although the Brighton race was only a 4 runner affair the handicapper seems to have taken that into consideration & raised him just one pound higher, 83 will be the highest mark he's run off but with a win off marks of 81 & 82 it's definitely possible. The draw at Chester really is a massive factor & more so than any other track in the country, being drawn low is a big advantage due to having to make up less ground on the constantly turning course & will suit April Fool down to the ground, at odds of 9/1 this one is crying out to be backed.

Selections:
2.35 Chester - Memphis Tennessee to win at 6/5 (general)
3.40 Chester - April Fool each way at 9/1 (Stan James)

Maybe we'll be dancing a little Samba on 1,000 Guineas day

(Aidan & Joseph O'Brien can double up in the English Guineas, this time the 1,000 with Maybe)

Saturday saw an impressive performance from Camelot in the 2,000 Guineas to overcome all sorts of statistics against him & a distance that will surely prove an insufficient stamina test in the future, it was a triumph of the impressive Coolmore operation that has the best breeding, buying, facilities & trainers & they can taste more success in the 1,000 Guineas with Maybe. Although there were reasons to oppose Camelot in the 2,000 at some originally prohibitive odds (5/4 was being quoted on Friday) it is impossible to find holes in anything that Maybe has done. The Galileo filly won all five of her two year old races progressing perfectly up the grading ladder by winning her maiden, then a listed & then Group 3 to Group One in order & doing it with the minimum of fuss for the most part & over every type of ground other than really firm. She's never won over the mile distance having won her last four races all over a furlong shorter but the step up shouldn't be an issue as she's shown plenty of stamina by taking races by the scruff of the neck plenty early enough. The other Group One winners here are Lightening Pearl & Lyric Of Light but Lightening Pearl's wins last year were coming over 6 furlongs on quick ground & was put in her place by Maybe when encountering yielding going - this looks the wrong race for her & it's strange that connections haven't changed their plans. Lyric Of Light has great connections being from the Godolphin operation & Frankie Dettori has selected her ahead of stablemate Discourse, she's unbeaten but those last two wins were only by a neck & a head respectively & she'd need to improve a fair few pounds to trouble the selection here. The biggest challenge could come from French challenger Mashoora who has the services of Christophe Soumillon on her back & trainer Jean-Claude Rouget wouldn't be sending her without a good chance. We don't buy into Moonstone Magic at all even though connections have paid to supplement her entry, she only made her debut in April & although she'll like the ground we're doubtful she's a future Group One winner. Stick with Maybe to deliver up an easy victory at odds of 6/4, she should get a tow into the race from an ideal central draw & expect to see her take it up around two furlongs out & put it to bed quickly.

(Hazel Lavery (white cap) can use her experience to take the Pretty Polly stakes)

In the Pretty Polly stakes we reckon that Hazel Lavery can defy giving her rivals three pounds to win the race at odds of around 5/1. Charlie Hills filly has already won in softish conditions & placed second in a very valuable sales race at the end of last year & that is by far the best form on offer in this field of 11. Salford Art actually has a higher rating courtesy of a 4th in the Group One Fillies Mile but she was some way back from Samitar that day & that rival was only just over a length in front of Hazel Lavery in the Tattersalls Millions so through that line she's held. Godolphin run two in the race & Lacily looks likely to be the favourite but she's only had the one run, winning a decent Doncaster maiden - the positives with that race are that it was over a mile (a furlong further than Hazel Lavery has contested) & it was soft enough that day. The only one to have raced this season that looks up to this level at the moment is probably Arsaadi who came third over course & distance in another mega money sales race two & a half weeks back, she was a little way off the first two though & has Ahmed Ajtebi on board - we are not fans. With a little bit of big race experience (18 runners in her sales race) & two runs at the track we're pretty sweet on Hazel Lavery & at odds of 5/1 she can be backed each way as a bet to nothing, she'll surely finish in the first three if tuned up & if it comes down to a battle we're confident she'll win.

(Samba King - he loves the soft ground)

In the final race of the day we can't get away from the top weight, Godolphin's Samba King, having seen him win easily at Yarmouth (beating a fancied stablemate) & then again at Sandown off a mark of 84 we don't think his improvement has finished & he'll deal with a 9 pound rise in the weights. He's a big type with a lovely round action that helps in this ground, he won 9-6 last time & doesn't seem to mind carrying the weight & Dettori seems to only be on the other Godolphin horse because Mikael Barzalona has struck up a good partnership with this one. There are probably improvers in this field but they'll have to go some to beat this race fit gelding who looks plenty tough enough & seems to relish these testing conditions, back Samba King at odds of 9/2.

Selections:

Newmarket 3.15 - Maybe to win at 6/4

Newmarket 5.00 - Hazel Lavery each way at 5/1

Newmarket 5.35 - Samba King to win at 9/2

Reliable Charlton set to hang Northern primates

Middlesbrough's defeat at Vicarage Road last weekend robbed of us a nice treble (our other selections, Everton and Yeovil eased home). We're back today with a couple of picks for you to get stuck into. Today is the final day of the regular season in both League One and Two, it should prove an exciting day for many teams and fans alike up and down the country.

(Chris Powell era is in full flow with the Championship awaiting)

In League One, there will be a festival atmosphere at The Valley for Charlton Athletic against Hartlepool. With promotion & the league title in the bag it just leaves Charlton with one final target of gaining three points & achieving 100+ league points for the season. A 90th minute equaliser from Preston's retiring Gary Alexander prevented Charlton chalking up a six consecutive victory last weekend. At home they have won their last four in a row & have won 14 of 20 in total but even more impressively they have only once failed to score in one of these games all season which doesn't bode well for a Hartlepool side who have failed to score in 40% of their matches this season. Even at the other end they have only scored 48 goals in 45 matches & the lack of craft in front of goals has meant an in-consistent season & mid table finish. Chris Powell & his players couldn't ask for a better opportunity to thank the fans & finish their perfect season with a comfortable home victory at the best odds of 8/13 with BetVictor & William Hill.

(Leader scorer Rene Howe will hope to be celebrating promotion to League One)

The final round of fixtures in League Two puts together a massive game at Edgar Street between Hereford United and Torquay. The game has consequences at both ends but unfortunately a win for either side may not be enough for them. Torquay need three points & hope Crawley fail to win at Accrington Stanley to gain automatic promotion whilst Hereford need the win & hope Barnet don't beat Burton Albion to avoid relegation to the Conference. Torquay will be relying on their excellent away record (2nd best in the league) of 11 victories & only conceding 24 goals in 22 matches to continue. What will also give confidence to Torquay fans is the fact that Hereford have the worst home record in the league where they have suffered 13 defeats in 22 matches. They have only won one of their last nine fixtures with a surprising away win at Crawley & have suffered five defeats. Torquay at the attractive price of 13/10 will pick up the three points & consign Hereford to the Conference but still have their fingers crossed that results go their away to gain automatic promotion.

Selections:

Charlton Athletic to beat Hartlepool at 8/13 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Torquay to beat Hereford United at 13/10 (BetVictor & William Hill)

2000 Guineas - Caspar to Spook more fancied rivals

Well this is what the flat aficionados have been waiting for with the first Classic of the season upon us with the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket where we have a red-hot favourite in the form of Aidan O'Brien's Camelot.

(Camelot a deserving favourite? Yes. A deserving 5/4 favourite? Probably not)

Clearly Camelot deserves all the respect in the world with top connections & a very visually impressive win in a top two year old trial when taking the Racing Post Trophy over the same distance at Doncaster in just his second ever race. We have a feeling that the current odds being offered (7/4 tops right now but 5/4 elsewhere) can't really be justified though, this is no Frankel (went off 1/2 last year) & the horses in behind that day at Doncaster weren't necessarily world beaters. It was a small field of just 5 runners, the runner up had only won it's maiden before running in behind in two Group 3's, one rival was a stablemate, the horse finishing last was having it's 7th run of the year & although having won a Group 3 had also already finished stone last in the 9 runner Group 1 Goffs National. We did like the horse that finished 3rd, Fencing who is a rival today but also have a sneaking suspicion that Gosden's charge might be a tricky one to win with as he looks a horse with just one potent thrust & 7 furlongs might suit better. All of that being said Camelot did beat them all easily enough & soft ground at Newmarket shouldn't be a problem pedigree wise with Montjeus tending to like give, it might also help make this a bit more of a stamina test & that should suit as Montjeu really has a very poor record with milers & that also tempers enthusiasm at the likely odds. We've seen it so many times before where a fancied horse gets placed here before going on to glory at Epsom in the Derby & we think that could be the case once again with Camelot who could find one or two better suited to the mile here.

(Caspar Netscher left his rivals in the shade this day, can he do it in the 2,000 Guineas?)

We want things in our favour when betting & here there are a lot of unknowns with so many horses yet to race this season & prove they've trained on, plus many haven't encountered soft ground either, therefore we're happy to take a chance on Caspar Netscher whose win in the Greenham at Newbury a couple of weeks back entitles him to respect. It isn't just this year's win but also last year's form that is worthy of consideration, with Group 2 wins in the Gimcrack & Mill Reef stakes, they were both wins over 6 furlongs & the Greenham was over 7 & he looks quick enough but might just be able to last it out here with a bit of cover. Trainer Alan McCabe could seemingly hardly believe his luck to end up with such a good horse & ended up running his star 10 times in his two year old season, including a trip to the states where he started at just 8/1 to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf race. That juvenile campaign should mean he's battle hardened & although unusual for European horses to run that often American trainers like to get plenty of runs into their horses, it doesn't appear to have emptied Caspar Netscher as he looked pretty good on his comeback in the Greenham, putting his rivals to the sword. We also think he was unlucky not to add a Group One when slowly away & finding enough trouble in the Middle Park before finishing a close up 5th, slow starts & traffic problems were a recurring theme last year but Newmarket's wide open spaces should help & they must have trained him plenty on the starting by now. At very big odds of 28/1 Caspar Netscher has to be the value each way selection here, he's very quick & stamina could fail coming towards the end but it's worth the risk, at least he's proven himself repeatedly unlike some others at much shorter prices based on pedigree alone (Born To Sea), the French raiders Abtaal & French Fifteen are also worthy of maximum respect.

(Temple Meads will be looking to send the mud flying on his belated return)

In the 3.45 Group 3 Palace House stakes we're going to go for another Mill Reef winner with Ed Mcmahon's returning Temple Meads, a smart novice who also finished 4th in 2010's Gimcrack. This race is over the minimum distance which tends to be the more traditional route for horses competing in the aforementioned races, rather than the Guineas like Caspar Netscher, Temple Meads showed some real quickness & won his first two races where soft was in the going description plus ran in the Middle Park (again like Caspar Netscher) when it was soft. The Middle Park was a disaster however with the saddle unfortunately slipping soon after the start & ruining his chances, it won't be easy after a break of 18 months but if coming back with the same talent intact then he's a great chance. There are other nice horses in the race with the consistent Hamish McGonagal, Eton rifles & the improving Mayson but they are all short enough & the value lies with Temple Meads with odds of 16/1 available at Ladbrokes who are also offering quarter the odds for each way bets on the race.
Selections:
Newmarket 3.10 - Caspar Netscher each way at 28/1 (SportingBet & BetVictor)
Newmarket 3.45 - Temple Meads each way at 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 27

After week 25 our followers were making a £43.18 loss after a poor week, could they improve their form in week 26? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@DanRS2000	Moto2 & Moto3 (Jerez) – S Redding, D Kent & Ant West	Moto 2 – S Redding 4th & Ant West 16th. Moto 3 – D Kent 13th LOSERS
@conormc1972	Blackburn to beat Spurs	No attempts at goal by Blackburn meant a 2-0 defeat LOSER
@grayslufc	Newcastle	Wigan hammered Newcastle 4-0 LOSER
@rahulm3	Newcastle DNB vs Wigan	Wigan hammered Newcastle 4-0 LOSER
@NicoHillkenberg	Newcastle, Huddersfield & Man Utd	Two defeats & a draw puts pay to this treble LOSER
@toddycounago	Crewe and Watford DNB	Watford beat Boro but Crewe drew at Torquay VOID
@Jugador1984	Cardiff to draw & Boro to win	Cardiff made the play-offs with a victory over Crystal Palace & Boro defeated at Watford LOSER
@agilebeast	Newcastle	Wigan hammered Newcastle 4-0 LOSER
@rigger60	Shrewsbury & Swansea	Shrews won against Dag & Red but Swansea let slip a 3-1 lead to draw with Wolves LOSER

Our followers’ had a shocking week 26 (mainly thanks to Newcastle's defeat) & increased their overall loss to -£53.18, from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 5^th May / 6^th May:

@CliveMallon picks a double of Sheffield Wed & Chelsea. Chelsea face Liverpool in the FA Cup Final & a victory for Sheffield Wed will see promotion to the Championship. The double pays 2.28/1.

@grayslufc BTTS – Blackpool/Birmingham, Newcastle/Man City, Blackburn/Wigan and St Mirren/Inverness C. The four fold BTTS pays 17/2 but remember the play-off 1^st leg between Blackpool/Birmingham is tonight at 7:45pm.

@grayslufc also has a treble of Port Vale (win), Notts County (win) & Rotherham/Northampton (BTTS). Port Vale host play-off chasing Oxford & Notts County have to beat Colchester to have any chance of making the League One play-offs. The treble pays just under 17/2.

@GHorsfall the lower leagues expert fancies Jermaine Grandison (Shrews) to score 2 or more @ 125/1.

@kdear57 tonight’s’ best greyhound bet is Trap 6 Bit View Micko in 9:30pm Wimbledon take 7/2 will start shorter.

@jspennington with Chelsea running out of defenders, Liverpool to win +/ or Suarez scoring has to be worth a punt or two. Liverpool are 2/1 to win their second cup of the season & Suarez is best price of 8/1 to open the scoring.

@rigger60 has a cheeky double of MK Dons (4/6) to beat Walsall & Bolton (20/19) to get a massive three points against WBA. The double pays just under 5/2.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Championship Playoffs First Legs

The Championship is already into the playoff stage of the season & the first legs take place this Thursday & Friday as four teams try to make it to the promised land of the Premier League & the riches it has to offer. Thursday sees Cardiff City host West Ham United & then on Friday we have Birmingham City visiting Blackpool. We've got previews & bets from both playoff games before a huge weekend of sport with the FA Cup final, the remaining leagues winding up & the first horse racing Classics of the season with the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas - we'll be finding bets for all of those too so check back.

(Young Joe Mason has bagged his share of goals for Cardiff this season)

The first playoff game sees the outright playoff favourites West Ham travel to take on League Cup finalists Cardiff after starting out their season hosting the same opponents in a loss at Upton Park, they also met here in March & West ham took advantage of a bit of a League Cup hangover by coming out with a 2-0 win, this promises to be a tough & tense affair before the deciding leg. Neither side have been easy to beat recently with West Ham only having two losses in 2012, coming in a freak heavy loss to Ipswich & to red hot Reading, Cardiff have gone ten games without a loss themselves but both sides have had way too many draws & they scuppered West Ham's automatic promotion chances & nearly did for Cardiff's playoff spot. Both sides' draw counts are quite extraordinary with the Hammers having 9 in their last 17 games & Cardiff with 7 draws in 13, & with this only being the first leg no side wants to lose it here so things could be pretty tight. Both sides do have match winners though with Peter Whittingham being a main man for Cardiff especially in terms of his quality at set pieces with great goal threat & a top delivery for setting others up, he'll need to be at his best though as the Hammers have the best away record in the league & also conceded the fewest goals with just 22 in 23 games & that would be lower if not for the 5 conceded away to Ipswich. West Ham have plenty of variety to play up front but Sam Allardyce can't all of hi players into the team at once, Carlton Cole offers a potent physical threat & Ricardo Vaz Te has been great since joining from Barnsley in the transfer window with 10 goals in 12 games. West Ham have to be sorely disappointed at not getting the automatic promotion place that the strength of their squad surely should have managed but they haven't let their heads drop in recent weeks & odds of Evens for the Hammers to win on the draw no bet market is a real tempter. As we said West Ham have only lost twice in 2012 & are outstanding on the road, the draw is a big player in this market but we'll get our bet refunded & we fancy West Ham slightly more with Cardiff having so many near misses in the playoffs over the years.

(Impact! Stephen Dobbie's put the ball in the back of the net 5 times since joining Blackpool on loan in March)

At Bloomfield Road we see another two teams trying to return to return to the top flight after relegation just last year with the colourful, in kit & playing style, Blackpool hosting Chris Hughton's Birmingham side. Ian Holloway has kept Blackpool playing the attacking football that saw them start off their Premier League season so well & they've done pretty well defensively at home too with just 21 conceded in their 23 games, they've outscored opponents here at a rate of two goals to one & have only lost 3 times at home all season. Both sides are much better at home than on the road & Birmingham's loss record shows just 10 wins all year but with 9 of those coming away from home, they have got the most away goals in the league though with 41 but 37 in the conceded column too which shows that Hughton sends his side out to play wherever they are. Birmingham's goals have come from throughout the team with Zigic, Marlon King & midfielder Chris Burke all reaching double figures, Burke has been particularly influential since leaving Cardiff for the Blues last summer & he will be desperate to play in England's top league. For Blackpool Kevin Phillips has continued to be a finely tuned goalscoring machine this year with 17 goals & has been ably backed up with goals from midfield from namesake Matt Phillips, Gary Taylor-Fletcher & also the blossoming Tom Ince. For all of that in recent weeks Blackpool's main man has been loan signing on the 22nd March Stephen Dobbie from Swansea & he's bagged 5 in 6 since stepping in showing the benefit of having so many fewer games this year on his legs than the players around him. Bearing in mind that both teams score goals & Birmingham don't seem to know how to play a containing game when playing away the odds of Evens available with BlueSquare for over 2.5 goals looks outstanding value. We also like Stephen Dobbie to score first at a very big 15/2 with Ladbrokes, he's in fine form right now & is as short as 5/1 with many other firms.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Cardiff City in the draw no bet market at Evens (Paddy Power)
Blackpool v Birmingham City to be over 2.5 goals at Evens (BlueSquare)
Stephen Dobbie to score first at 15/2 (Ladbrokes)