Troubled times at The Emirates

Notts County played Juventus in Turin on Thursday night in the opening of the Nuovo Stadium, and just two days later face they now face Walsall in a mid-table battle in League One. County's Chief Exec has publically spoken stating the congestion isn't ideal but the lure of playing one of the European giants was 'the chance of a lifetime'. Walsall come into the game 1 point behind their League One counterparts and are in decent form winning two of their last three (only losing to promotion hopefuls Brentford) & we fancy The Saddlers to claim a point at Meadow Lane. Last season these sides finished one league placing apart & we think there will be a similar outcome this term. Back Dean Smith's men to come away from Nottinghamshire with a Draw at 13/5.

Down in League Two, Shrewsbury face Hereford at Greenhouse Meadow. The Shrews have won four of their last six games in all competitions; with a 1-0 victory at promotion rivals Gillingham last weekend. On the same day, Hereford recorded their first victory of the season vs Dag & Red but it remains their only win in 11 league fixtures & on the road they haven't had success since March. We see Shrewsbury as a home banker for any multiples bets & they can continue their 11 match unbeaten home record at odds of 4/6.

(Arsene Wenger shows his frustration)

The game at The Emirates could prove crucial for Arsene Wenger who is enduring his most difficult time in management, this game could prove interesting for many reasons without necessarily being exciting. Arsenal have now failed to win in the league this season scoring just twice (in the 8-2) defeat to Manchester United, stretching back to last season they've now won just 2 of 14 games in the league & are severely lacking in confidence & star players. Wenger made late moves to sign Park Chu-Young, Andre Santos, Per Mertesacker & Mikel Arteta but it should take some time for these new players to be integrated into the team & they are certainly not a team to backed at this moment in time. They come up against Swansea City who have not even managed a single goal in their first Premier League season yet but have kept clean sheets in their last 2 outings after getting a potentially demoralising beating at the hands of Man City in their opener. New goalkeeper Michel Vorm has been outstanding (even in the 4-0 at City) & Swansea will not come to Arsenal attempting to win by playing an open, expansive & attacking game - they've lost centre back Alan Tate to a freak accident in a golf buggy & will turn up with men behind the ball in an aim to frustrate Arsenal & if the fans start to get on the Gunners players backs early on we could see a tense & tight game. We're happy to back Vorm to have another shutout without Swansea having the quality to score at the other end, backing No Goalscorer rather than 0-0 at the same price means you can also be paid out if the only goal is an own goal, do this at the available 14/1 & prepare for Wenger to take his frustrations out on those trusty water bottles!

Selections
Notts County and Walsall to draw at 13/5 (various)
Shrewsbury to beat Hereford at 4/6 (various)
No goalscorer Arsenal vs Swansea at 14/1 (various)

Road to the Super Bowl - NFL Season Preview (NFC)

We've looked at the AFC contenders in our first post, here we'll preview the chances of some of the NFC's leading lights including last year's impressive champions the Green Bay Packers.

The NFC North is a fascinating division as although the Packers won the Super Bowl last year they didn't actually win the division after finishing 10-6 & qualifying for the playoffs in the Wild Card round, the Chicago Bears won the division & will hope to follow up this year. The Green Bay Packers were highly impressive at times last year, taking real momentum from the tight win at home to the Vikings (thanks to turning 2 Brett Favre interceptions into touchdowns) to then shut out the Jets away, smash the Dallas Cowboys & then maul the Vikings at the Metrodome coming off the bye week. The Packers then lost 3 of their next 4 before going unbeaten to the Super Bowl & their record serves to highlight the sides strength & weakness - they have an elite Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers & a phenomenal receiving core, especially in terms of depth, but they do seem to be a streaky team that play well when things are going great, they only had 2 games last year where they came from behind at half time to win. I have a suspicion that when the offensive line can protect Rodgers he becomes supremely confident & finds it easy to throw strikes to his receivers but if teams can get at him then his accuracy & timing get shakier & he doesn't gather his composure as well as say a Brady or Rothelisberger. However Aaron Rodgers is likely to still be improving & with 4 very good receivers in Jennings, Driver, Jordy Nelson & James Jones he's still likely to have a big scoring season & they are good enough to come out on top in any game when facing opposition without good enough pass rushers. The running game for the Packers is still suspect though with Brandon Jackson leaving & James Starks having minimal experience, Kuhn is useful for sort yardage situations but overall this aspect of the game is far behind the passing & opposing teams should note this & set up to dfeend the pass much more effectively this year. At defense the Packers are solid & have one of, if not the best defensive players in the league in the dominating linebacker Clay Matthews, he is a player that can make things happen & it would leave a big hole if he were to get injured. At cornerback they still have the future hall of famer Charles Woodson but at 34 turning 35 this year his influence may be on the wane, Tramon Williams needs to continue his strong form from last year (6 interceptions) to ensure they stay strong against the deep threat. Clearly the Packers are a side that can beat any other on any day but without improvement in the rushing game consecutive championships may prove beyond them, a tough schedule also doesn't help with away games at Atlanta, the New York Giants & San Diego being some of the hardest they could have faced.

(Devin Hester making a return for the Chicago Bears)

In the same NFC North division the Chicago Bears appear to have a slightly easier schedule than the already discussed Packers (save for a monster game away to the Eagles), made more interesting as one of their away games is counted as the game in London against Tampa Bay in the International Series. The game in London hasn't adversely affected the teams involved in previous years & should give the Bears a taste of the glamour they will be hoping to get with a successful run to the playoffs. The ground game has always been the Bears traditional strength & 2011 should be no different with the strong Matt Forte being backed up by new recruit from the Cowboys Marion Barber. Chicago have weapons in the wide receiver position with Roy Williams having joined from the Cowboys & Devin Hester, Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox all having the potential to make plays. How the Bears season pans out depends much on how well they can integrate their controversial quarterback Jay Cutler into the game, he was roundly criticised for not coming back onto the field in their crucial NFC Championship game following a sprained ligament, Cutler can put up big numbers but will need to be better protected if they harbour hopes of going all the way. At defense the Bears are strong with Brian Urlacher starring at inside linebacker & 6 time Pro Bowler Julius Peppers still being one of the best defensive ends, they have had a setback though with outside linebacker Lance Briggs requesting a trade right before the start of the season. The Bears also have the most dangerous return man in football with Devin Hester now the all-time leading kick & punt return touchdown leader. At the available big odds of 13/2 with Stan James the Bears are worthy of picks for being NFC North divisional winners although they may not have quite enough star quality to progress too far in the playoffs.

The Phildelphia Eagles are general 3rd favourites for the Super Bowl & certainly have claims with players that can make things happen on offense & defense. The Eagles appear to have traded well in the offseason bringing in one of the very best cornerbacks in from Oakland in Nnamdi Asomugha, Ronnie Brown as extra running back competition for LeSean Jackson & Vince Young as backup quarterback to the re-signed (on a $100m contract)  Michael Vick & Young could be needed with the amount of rushing Vick undertakes. Having a dual-threat quarterback that is so good at both aspects of the game, with a big accurate arm & quick legs is something that no other team posess & makes it so hard for teams to defend against when the QB can take off at any time. A big problem with the rushing quarterback is that they can get banged up & injured or even just tired through games but with a backup as good as Young it means they can slot him in when needed without needing to change tactics, even the 3rd string QB Mike Kafka is dual-threat & has potential. In defense the Eagles are simply phenomenal aginst the deep threat with star cornerback Asante amuel now being joined by Asomuga & they should get plenty of interceptions betwen them to make the defense a potent unit. Their schedule hasn't been unkind with some of their toughest opponents having to travel to Philadelphia & probably their hardest away game comes in week 2 versus the Atlanta Falcons. Although the rush defense was only middling last year & there appear to have been no obvious improvements to it the Eagles are still due a great season & best odds of 10/11 to win the NFC East underestimates their superiority to their rivals as Dallas have ben overrated for years  are in a little bit of transition & the Giants look some way off their 2007 Super Bowl winning best.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to win NFC North at 13/2 with Stan James
Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East at 10/11 (general)

Road to the Super Bowl - NFL Season Preview (AFC)

The 2011 NFL season promises to be as explosive as usual & the competition is always unpredictable & it is very true that on 'Any given Sunday' any team can win against any other team. The excellent draft system & league salary cap ensure that there is a level of parity between teams that could only be dreamt of in the professional sports leagues of Europe - for a franchise to build a dynasty & win more than 2 championships in a short space of time is an incredible achievement as the level of competition in every single season is intense.

This year there is an added level of intrigue due to the 4 month long lockout caused by the labour dispute between players & owners. There is a theory that this will benefit the established teams with a tight unit of players as they will be able to get back into the groove running & completing plays successfully more than teams going through a period of change. This certainly explains the powerhouse that are the New England Patriots & last years impressive, in defense & offense, Super Bowl winners Green Bay Packers sitting at the top of the betting market. We'll look at the leading fancies from the AFC below with the NFC contenders to follow shortly.

AFC

(Pittsburgh Steelers excellent 2010 rookie - Centre Maurkice Pouncey)

The AFC side of the league looks to have slightly more strength in depth than the NFC this season with several franchises appearing credible challengers for the Super Bowl, they will be looking to change their fortunes after largely dominating for a decade before NFC sides won 3 of the last 4 championships.

New England Patriots are simply one of, if not, the best run sides in all of football winning the AFC East division in 8 of the last 10 years & 3 Super Bowls along the way (2001, 03 & 04). They are led by meticulous coach Bill Bellichick & 'Mr Perfect' quarterback Tom Brady who managed to throw 36 touchdowns & just 4 interceptions last year. In the regular season they managed 14 wins to 2 defeats before slipping up to divisional rivals the Jets in the playoffs. The offense has bolstered by the signing of Chad Ochocinco as an extra wide receiver, he may now be 33 but he managed 67 receptions last year & as Brady doesn't tend to target one individual too much (although he has a penchant for hitting the tight ends) he should be seen to good effect. On defense the Patriots have been solid for some time but they could become spectacular if the signing of the disruptive & destructive nose tackle Albert Haynesworth pays off. Haynesworth is a monster at the line & was voted defensive player of the year in 2008, after signing on an incredible $100m+ deal for Washington Redskins last year everything went wrong with Haynesworth taking exception to being played out of position & eventually being suspended by the team - if New England can get him in shape & back to something like his best he will get plenty of sacks & hits on quarterbacks this season. Quite simply the New England Patriots are deserving of their place at the top of the market and best odds of 13/2 with SportingBet seem fair.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the winningest side in football with 6 Super Bowls & were last year's runners up to the Packers & as another well run organisation have a good chance of being able to deal with the limited pre season better than most sides. They say that defenses win championships & Pittsburgh have always subscribed to this theory, their current side has the stand out defensve players Troy Polamalu & hard hitting James Harrison backed up by a rock solid core including Ziggy Hood, Lawrence Timmons & Brett Keisel. Corner back still seems to be a weak area (as seen in William Gay's terrible performance in the Super Bowl) & although no team appears to be able to run the ball against the Steelers (conceded less than 63 rushing yards per game in 2010), elite quarterbacks can exploit this weakness with big throws over the top. In offense the Steelers are regularly underestimated with many still not believing 'Big Ben' Roethelisberger is an elite QB even though he's led them to 2 titles (1st as a 2nd season rookie) & another Super Bowl. Roetheliberger appears to be the main man in clutch situations, bringing home game winning drives with unerring consistency, the main problem is that the players in front of him don't seem to be able to stop him being hit. The offensive line has been a problem for some time & hasn't really been upgraded, it is key for them to keep last year's1st round draft pick Maurkice Pouncey fit at centre otherwise they will continue to prove vulnerable & if Ben keeps getting hit he will get injured. In terms of point scoring talent Rashard Mendenhall needs to continue improving & get a 3rd consecutive 1000+ yard rushing season, the Steelers are excellent once they establish the run which sets Roethelisberger up to pass to speedball Mike Wallace. The receiver core has been boosted by the signing of Jericho Crotchery who should add depth, last year's decent rookie Emmanuel Sanders can improve to be more involved in games & 35 year old veteran Heinz Ward will continue to do his thing as speed has never been the main facet of his game. The Steelers are tough, tough, tough & are likely to be there abouts, however without any immediately obvious improvements to the O-Line Big Ben may take too much of a battering & best odds of 15/1 with  Bet365 are fair but untempting.

The San Diego Chargers are currently 4th in the betting for the Super Bowl & it's not hard to see why as they are red hot favourites to win the AFC West division & make it to the playoffs, they have a high powered offense & a defense that can shut teams down. In 2010 they had the number 1 ranked offense & defense yet only finished 9-7 & missed out on the playoffs, that was because football isn't just a game of offense & defense but a third discipline that the Chargers are the worst at by a country mile - Special Teams! Last year they were dreadful with blocked punts, fumbled returns & allowing teams to run back kickoffs & punt returns  with alarming regularity. If the special teams mistakes can be cut out then an offense containing QB Philip Rivers, who regularly puts up big numbers, 7 time pro bowler Antonio Gates at tight end & elite wide receiver Vincent Jackson can combine for some high scoring. The offensive line is strong & they are decent without being spectacular at running back & the defense is good (the number 1 ranking is flattering - due to giving away so many big plays on special teams & turnovers the defense was on the field less than other teams giving them less opportunity to concede yards), this could well be their year but they aren't our pick at 12/1 with Bwin as they need to run the ball a little better otherwise they will become too predictable & sides will go all out for the sacks on Rivers. However the rest of their division are weak fare & the 8/15 for San Diego to win the AFC West should be taken as it is a simple enough task.

 (Houston Texans - 2011 Super Bowl champions?)

The 2011 season will be the Houston Texans 10th in the NFL & after finishing 2009 with the franchise's first winning season before slipping up last year they will be hoping to improve massively this year with a run at the Super Bowl. The Texans have one of the most exciting offenses in the game with quarterback Matt Schaub having thrown for over 4,000 yards in the last 2 seasons & having an impressive career rating of 91.5, top wide out Andre Johnson & most importantly the superstar running back in Arian Foster. Foster was the league's leading rusher with over 100 yards a game plus was excellent out of the back field with 66 receptions & 604 receiving yards - if Foster & his compatriots on offense can keep things going they will be one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Unfortunately for the Texans their defense has not kept up their side of the bargain in recent seasons, last season they gave up the most yards through the air of any side although weren't so bad against the run (maybe teams didn't try running as it was so easy to pass!). However the management have recognised their weakness & brought in former Cowboys head coach as the defensive coach who has gone about changing the defensive scheme from a 4-3 to a disruptive 3-4 formation. The change should allow them to get more pressure on the opposing quarterback & lead to fewer big plays against them. They've upgraded at corner back too, bringing in Johnathan Joseph from Cincinnati who should give them more chance of interceptions & negating the deep threat. Houston will lose games but if they can get to the playoffs they have the ability to beat any team in the league, therefore the key to their chance is in reaching the playoffs & this season offers a great opportunity as divisional rivals the Indianapolis Colts seem to have reached a plateau & their ace QB Peyton Manning has had surgery in the offseason & may even miss play & will almost certainly start slowly - the Texans can get a headstart with a win against the Colts on the opening weekend. At best odds of 25/1 with Victor Chandler (as low as 16/1 with many) they are our outright pick for the win, with Boylesports they are an excellent 27/20 to win the AFC South division.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win Super Bowl at 25/1 with Victor Chandler
Houston Texans (27/20) to win AFC South & San Diego Chargers (1/2) to win  AFC West in a double with Boylesports (pays odds of just over 5/2)

Got to be Misty For Me

Saturday has three races at the highest level in the UK & Ireland & whilst the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock looks a competitive contest with many potential contenders, the two Irish racces can be dominated by Aidann O'Brien with odds on shot So You Think in the Champion Stakes & Misty For Me in the Matron Stakes.

Aidan O'Brien's filly Misty For Me took advantage of a great ride under Jockey Seamus Heffernan last time out to slam the top drawer Midday by 6 lengths in one of the performances of the year. Before that she had failed to get the 12 furlong trip at Epsom in the Oaks but had shown her class & toughness in winning the Irish 1000 Guineas from her stablemate Together. The step back to the mile shouldn't be a problem with a likely strong pace that should allow her to settle & run her best race, Together reopposes but Misty For Me is the superior filly & will show that today. Other challengers include the likeable Lolly For Dolly & Pat Smullen's Emulous, they are decent sorts but would need to progress considerably to be genuine Group 1 contenders, Misty For Me is available at 11/8 & that price should be taken.

The Irish Champion Stakes is priced up as though it should be a cakewalk for So You Think, Ballydoyle's Antipodean resident. One of the best horses that Australia has produced, So You Think finished 3rd in the Melbourne Cup last year before 2 very easy wins in Ireland then just failing to beat Godolphin's Rewilding in the Prince of Wales before making amends when winning thee Eclipse at Sandown. It won't be totally straightforward for So You Think if Snow Fairy turns up in the form that she showed last year, when winning 4 Group 1's in 4 different countries. She hasn't been able to show her best form this year otherwise if she had we'd have been confident to tip her up as a 'free' each way bet at 6/1 as she's superior to the rest of the opposition.

The Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock is one of the late summer's racing highlight's & this renewal should prove a good one with many interesting contenders. Multiple handicap winning Hoof It attempts to make the step up to the top level for the 2nd time after failing over 5 furlongs at York in the Nunthorpe but this 6 furlong trip should suit much better & he is well drawn in stall 13. Graham Gibbons takes over the reins & has form on Easterby's charge after running up a hattrick in May 2010, Gibbons rarely gets his chance at Group & Listed level but has one of the best strike rates when doing so & is an excellent sprint jockey, whilst backing a horse solely because of a jockey is never a good reason this is still a positive. Big challengers come in the form of the classy Bated Breath, also drawn high in 15, & Golden Jubilee winner Society Rock - both have solid claims but Society Rock is potentially drawn awfully in 1 & Bated Breath may find it hard to pass the giant Hoof It if it comes down to a battle. Dream Ahead is probably the biggest danger as the top rated horse & impressive July Cup winner, he disappointed in France last time but if the race pans out here with a decent pace & gaps appearing at the right time then could end up an impressive looking winner. Hoof It should keep it simple however & gallop all the way to the line, being on a thoroughly genuine sort should mean we all get a good run for our money & he will hopefully deliver the 1st part of a Group 1 double for us at a price of 5/1.

Selections:
Haydock 3.35 - Hoof It at 5/1
Leopardstown 5.40 - Misty For Me at 11/8

Lower league goalfest expected

The international fixtures will take up most of the back pages in the papers but that doesn't mean that domestic football has gone away & there are some great bets to be had down in the 3rd & 4th tiers of the English football pyramid. Last week we made a small profit to level stakes betting following the draw at Fratton Park & on over 2.5 goals thanks to the slaughter of a wounded Arsenal at Old Trafford. Once again we've looked at the domestic weekend fixtures to bring you our best bets - attempting a fourth successive profit on our weekend football selections.

Scunthorpe take on Colchester in League 1 in what should be an exciting game, in the 10 league games the teams have taken part in so far there have been a total of 36 goals (Scunthorpe 16 & Colchester 20). We expect the goals to keep coming as Scunthorpe have definitely realised that the best form of defence is to attack as particularly shown in their performance at the Valley Ground 2 weeks ago where they peppered Charlton's goal & came back from 2 down to snatch a late 2-2. At odds of 4/5 we think that backing over 2.5 goals is a great bet & even over 3.5 goals could be a strong possible.

Another game that could produce the goals is Notts County at home to Bournemouth, both sides carry an attacking threat & their games so far have averaged over 3.5 total goals. Notts County's two home games have produced 8 goals so far (4 for each team) & there is a big incentive for both sides to get the win & kickstart their seasons. Notts County certainly have the edge in this one but more value can be found by backing over 2.5 goals again & not having to worry about which side can nick it.

In League 2, Southend entertain Northampton at Roots Hall. The Shrimpers have only lost one of their last 12 meetings against Northampton in all competitions, including being unbeaten in their last five home meetings. Southend also have the best current form of the two; winning their last two games against Port Vale and Crawley (in the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy) whilst Northampton continue their terrible form, having lost their last five in all competitions. Therefore we fully expect Southend to continue their impressive record against Northampton at a best price of 21/20.

Burton Albion will be looking to bounce back at home against bottom club Plymouth after successive defeats by the odd goal. Plymouth's problems off the field have been well documented and the results on the pitch aren't much better - The Pilgrims have lost their last five league matches. Rumours have also been surfacing this week that the Plymouth team will go on strike and not even travel to Burton with the club likely to fill the squad with youth team players. Whether the first team do travel to the Pirelli Stadium or not we think that Peter Reid's side will succumb to the Staffordshire based club.

Selections:

Scunthorpe vs Colchester Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (general)
Notts County vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 (general)
Southend to beat Northampton at 21/20 (Betfair)
Burton Albion to beat Plymouth Argyle at 8/13 (William Hill)

Belgium to come Baku with 3 points

Friday evening brings us a raft of European Championship matches to get our teeth into; we've selected our best bets from across the continent, searching from Valletta to Tbilisi to bring you three selections.

First up we've picked Belgium to beat Azerbaijan in Group A. Belgium boast an impressive squad that includes the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, Marouanne Fellaini, Dan Van Buyten and 22 year old attacking midfielder Axel Witsel. George Leekens team are unbeaten in six including the reverse of this fixture in which they came out on top the 4-1 winners. Currently 74 places above the Azeri in the FIFA rankings we see no reason why this one wont go with form in favour of the 1980 European Championship runners-up.  You can get 4/9 with various bookmakers on the Belgium triumph. The Belgium HT/FT odds of 11/10 also look backable.

Estonia travel the near 1000 mile trip to Slovenia facing an uphill struggle. Slovenia are best priced at 10/29 to beat the side ranked 79 by FIFA. Estonia are without a point, or a goal, in their last 6 away matches which included defeat to the Faroe Islands. In their most recent home matches Slovenia have earnt a credible home draw against Belgium and were narrowly defeated by Italy. Their record against Estonia is very good with a 83% win ratio. Priced at just better than 1/3 we think this really is 'Like Buying Money'.

We also think that Wales will be good enough for a draw against Zlatko Kranjcar's Montenegro at the Cardiff City Stadium. Both sides to earn a Group G point in the Welsh capital is priced at  23/10 with various firms. Wales are pointless in their European Qualifying campaign to date whereas Montenegro have impressed so far hauling 11 points from their opening 5 games, including a point against England at Wembley. Although the form stats point towards a likely away victory we think that Gary Speed's team, including Craig Bellamy, Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Robert Earnshaw are good enough to claim a point in this one.

Selections
Belgium to beat Azerbaijan at 4/9 (Various)
Slovenia to beat Estonia at 10/29 (bwin)
Wales and Montenegro to draw at 23/10 (Various)