Euro 2012 Playoff second legs

Tuesday sees four games of massive importance on the international scene with the deciding legs of the playoff qualifiers for Euro 2012, 3 sides already hold distinct advantage from good wins in the 1st legs & that could impact on the way games play out, we're concentrating on the Portugal v Bosnia game that still hangs in the balance & the all but through Republic of Ireland who now host Estonia.

(Ronaldo can get the scoring going for Portugal v Bosnia)

The 1st leg of Portugal against Bosnia-Herzegovina tie was an excruciating affair on a very poor pitch, not helped by an unecessarily strict referee, the Bosnia coach's promise to attack was patently untrue & although Portugal will have been disappointed to have not got an away goal (it ended 0-0) they will feel they have the players to get this put away at home. Portugal always used to be held up along with Spain as a side that have perennially underachieved but now that Spain have well & truly put that behind them Portugal are now along with England the biggest European countries to continue to falter. When you look at the individuals in Portugal's lineup they are clearly a threat to anyone with some top defenders in Pepe, Fábio Coentrão & Bruno Alves & brilliant creative talent in Raul Meireles, Nani & the man who has a legitimate claim to be the best in the world - Cristiano Ronaldo (even over the much lauded Lionel Messi). Ronaldo really can take a game by the scruff of the neck & is continuing in irresistible form for Real Madrid this year with 13 goals in 11 games, 13/5 may seem short for him to score first but he really is that good & can come through when it counts. Bosnia hold a genuine attacking threat through their star player Edin Dzeko & vice captain & record capped midfielder Zvjezdan Misimović, they're pretty tough all round & did well to run France close in their qualifying group. That group wasn't the strongest though & they should be overmatched against Portugal who will want to win this by a clear margin to avoid potentially going out on away goals, backing Portugal with -1 goals on the handicap at 6/5 looks the way to go in this one.

 (Top winger Aidan McGeady can help Ireland impress in front of their home fans)

The Republic of Ireland are virtually in the finals after their superb 4-0 win away in Tallinn against Estonia & they will be feeling great for this one & will want to put on a show for the home fans. Estonia must know in their heart of hearts that this tie is done but if they are foolish enough to try to attack in this one they will find out how ruthless Ireland can be. Robbie Keane has turned down a request from L.A. Galaxy to sit out this game so that he can be more prepared for their MLS final & that shows that Ireland are taking this game seriously. They are strong at the back with the outstanding Shay Given protected by his Villa team mate Richard Dunne, Stephen Kelly & the ever improving Sean St. Ledger, Damian Duff & £9.5m winger Aidan McGeady offer Keane great support going forwards & with Estonia deflated after the weekend defeat they will want to put a vfew past them to sign off this qualifying campaign in style. Ireland's superiority to Estonia seems to have been underestimated here & the 2/5 for them to win looks as sure a bet as you'll get.

Selections:

Portugal to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina with -1 goals on the handicap at 6/5 (various)

Cristiano Ronaldo to score 1st goal at 13/5 (Paddy Power)

Republic of Ireland to beat Estonia at 2/5 (general)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers tips - Week 2

Last week we asked our Twitter followers to send us their best bets for the then coming weekend, we received a range of responses. Below is a recap of those tips that we published, the right hand summarises the result of the bet.

Follower	Selection	Result
@MrMatthewReid	Ryan Lowe to score first for Wednesday vs Brentford. Not sure of the odds but he’s prolific and got off the mark last weekend.	Lowe completed 90 minutes for Sheffield Wednesday against Brentford in a game that finished 0-0 LOST
@GHorsfall	Oldham 21/20 to beat Bury side who lost several loanees with week and 4/5 wins came against bottom 7.	Bury claimed a win on the road beating Oldham 2-0 LOST
@profitbet	Exeter to beat Carlisle @ 2.72, Exeter form picking up	Nothing could seperate the sides with the game ending 0-0 LOST
@larryleeroy	QPR 0-4 Man City 13/1, PP offering money back if there are more than 4 goals. Form suggests City will score 4. QPR just don’t score!	Man City overcame QPR 3-2 at Loftus Road LOST (Although PP offered money back at 4+ goals were scored)
@jamespow	Don’t know the odds etc but I’ve got a feeling Fulham vs Spurs will be a high scoring affair on Sunday.	Fulham succumbed 3-1 to Spurs LOST
@Bet_Hunter	LSU -5.5 to beat Alabama in college football. Top 2 ranked teams	LSU triumphed but by 9 point to 6 LOST

Not a great start! Our ‘Twitter Followers best bets’ running total stands at -£5.00, from £1 stakes.

Due to the interest we have decided to continue asking our followers each week for their best bets and we will keep a running profit/loss of the tips. Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 12^th/13^th November.

@MrMatthewReid suggests Euro 2012 Play-off qualifiers 1st leg, all four game accumulators; either team not to score at 7/1 or under 2.5 goals at 9/2+.

@ShanePollard16 all your money on Spain, @jamespow agrees with Shane England to be outclassed by technically superior footballers who will beat us in 2^nd gear. England face World Champions Spain at Wembley and can be backed at 10/11.

@Bet_Hunter Sticks to what he knows and picks another college football match for his selection Alabama -17 to beat Mississippi State. Expect Bama to bounce back in a big way after their LSU loss. Alabama with the handicap are priced at 10/11 (various)

@Jugador1984 I think Wales have a good chance against Norway, is it #4winsonthetrot. Gary Speed's men beat Switzerland and Bulgaria in October and will look to continue to keep up their good form against the Euro 2012 qualifiers. The Welsh can be backed at 21/10 with Stan James.

@gray67lufc 3 for the w/end. Scunthorpe at 13/10, Barnet at 6/4 and Rotherham at 11/10 all odds against. These three are all in the FA Cup, we'll be taking them as singles.

@beazeley1973 Germany/Spain double. To add further value to Spain's price @beazeley1973 has doubled them up with Germany, together the double pays 9/4.

@sridout92 tips up Scotland, Ireland and Ronaldo anytimescorer patent for our purposes we'll take the bet as a treble only which pays 10.5/1.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next weeks post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Friday International Football - Euro 2012 Playoffs

We're entering the final stages of Euro 2012 qualifying with the 1st legs of the playoffs on Friday, the importance of not falling too far behind for the return leg can lead to paralysing games with both sides being unwilling to commit but there are a couple of ties where the home sides will feel the need to push forwards & attack before facing tough away games. We've picked out the best bets in the Bosnia v Portugal & Czech Republic v Montengro games.

 (Ronaldo, Nani & co will be looking to strike in Portugal's 1st leg against Bosnia)

Bosnia-Herzegovina face Portugal in Zenica's Olympic Stadium for the first leg of their Euro 2012 Qualifying Play-off. They also met in the play-offs for a spot in the 2010 World Cup (South Africa), with Portugal qualifying 2-0 on aggregate after 1-0 victories in both matches. Bosnia are trying to earn a spot in their first major tournament since becoming an independent nation in 1992. They were 12 minutes away from automatic qualification when a Samir Nasri penalty kick meant France gained the spot ahead of them, whilst Portugal blew their chance of automatic qualification on the final round of fixtures after a 2-1 defeat to Denmark & luckily only reached the play-offs on goal difference after finishing with identical head-to-head records with Norway.

Bosnia coach Safet Susic knows the importance of a victory, quoting "How can we aim for a victory in Lisbon if we cannot win at home?" but he has to deal with a defensive crisis with regular starters Sasa Papac & Boris Pandza both suspended and Mensur Mujdza sidelined through injury. So Susic will expect attacking midfield trio Miralem Pjanic, Zvjezdan Misimovic & Senad Lulic and lone striker Edin Dzeko to prove that attack is the best form of defence. Portugal have received mixed team news this week with Danny & Silvio ruled out but Hugo Almeida and Real Madrid duo Fabio Coentrao & Pepe returning. Plus they have the added bonus of star player Cristiano Ronaldo coming into the match on the back of a hat-trick last weekend (17 goals in 17 games this season) and will hope his goals keep flowing. Picking the winner of the match is a difficult one but taking the team news into account the 11/10 on offer for both teams to score seems a solid betting proposition.

The other qualifying playoff of interest comes in the Czech Republic's clash at home to tough opponents Montenegro in a match that the Czech's will feel they have to win in order to gain advantage before travelling to Podgorica for the 2nd leg. This is only Montenegro's 2nd attempt to qualify for a major international competition after the 2010 World Cup & they have impressed hugely for supposed minnows & finished 2nd in England's group, they haven't won in their last 5 games though & carrying confidence is important when coming into a match like this. The Czech Republic have meanwhile 2 of their last 3, spanking Lithuania & Ukraine, whilst the loss was against Spain (so basically doesn't count as it wasn't against normal humans). At odds of 3/4 with William Hill the Czech Republic to win looks a decent proposition, the best other bet in the game is for attacking left back Michal Kadlec to open the scoring at 25/1 & to score anytime at 7/1 - he's scored  5 times for the side including 4 times in the last 4 games & he scored the last minute penalty to wreck Scotland's hopes.

Selections:
Both teams to score in the Bosnia & Portugal game at 11/10 with Ladbrokes
Czech Republic to beat Montenegro at 3/4 with William Hill
Michal Kadlec to score 1st goal in Czech Republic v Montengro game at 25/1 with Paddy Power & 7/1 anytime goalscorer at 7/1 (various)

Final round of Euro 2012 qualifiers - Allez France!

At last the interminably long qualifiying for the European Championships is coming to an end, around 7 million games have been played to decide that the usual teams will get to perform in Poland & Ukraine next year but there are still several automatic qualifying & playoff place spots to grab, we've researched all of the games to come up with a couple of great bets.

France are probably the only 'big guns', unless you include the perennially underperforming Portugal, who have yet to qualify for the tournament but they will be fancying their chances when they take on Bosnia-Herzegovina in Paris. The French have 20 points from their 9 games & would have expected for that to be enough to have qualified by now but the Bosnians have had a fantastic campaign & sit just one point behind. The Bosnians need to win to overtake France & book an automatic place in the finals, they can't be caught for 2nd so there is every incentive for them to go for it but that will play into France's hands. France have conceded just 3 goals in qualifying but have struggled for goals as weaker teams have played very compact football in an effort not to be beaten, with Bosnia coming at them they should be able to pick them off & get the goals needed to qualify in style. The Bosnians are giving out mixed signals with playmaker Pjanic claiming thye need a miracle whilst Manchester City striker Edin Dzeko believes they can get that miracle & turn around the form of their 2-0 defeat to France in Sarajevo. France are missing star pair Karim Benzema & Franck Ribery but they are now unbeaten in 14 matches & Laurent Blanc has his side playing with a real team ethic, they should prove far too strong in this one & can be backed with confidence at 1/2. We think the French can do this whilst keeping a clean sheet & the best bet in terms of scores looks to be backing France to win 2-0 at 6/1 with Unibet.

(Hungary can't qualify but will want to finish their campaign on a positive note)

In Group E, a dead rubber match takes place at the Puskas Ferenc Stadion between Hungary & Finland. Hungary have finished 3rd in the group despite being able to match Sweden's points haul of 21 (if they beat Finland & Netherlands defeat Sweden) as Sweden have the better head-to-head record. Hungary have won six of their nine qualifying games & have a home record of three wins from four with only the table toppers the unbeaten Netherlands being victorious. Finland have had a difficult campaign with six defeats in their nine matches & only three victories against San Marino (home & away) & at home to Moldova. On the road they have suffered defeats to the Netherlands, Sweden & Moldova with nine goals conceded and only registering the solitary goal. We expect Hungary, boosted by the return of Zoltan Gera & Balazs Dzsudzsak, to continue their fine recent form of five wins from five matches (including friendlies) at the reasonable price of 8/11.

Selections:
France to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina at 1/2 (general) & France to win 2-0 at 6/1 (Unibet, 11/2 at other places)

Hungary to beat Finland at 8/11 (Victor Chandler)

Friday International Football

Friday sees the second last round of matches for Euro 2012 qualifying plus various friendlies & World Cup qualifiers going on elsewhere in the world of international football, we've scoured the fixtures list to find the best bets from all of these matches & think we've found two below.

 

 (Arsenal & South Korea's Park Chu Young will be looking to score against Poland)

A very sensible betting strategy for punters is never to back in friendlies & it's one that we would nearly always follow, save for 1st goalscorer interest bets, however we think that the prices look wrong for Euro 2012 hosts Poland's trip to South Korea. Poland have had 4 players withdraw since announcing their squad inluding 1st choice goalkeeper, Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny, they've had a reasonable run of late but all in friendlies due to not having to take part in qualifying & have had little joy when travelling away from home. They managed a 2-2 draw against Germany last time out in what is normally an emotional game, it was also taken more seriously by the Poles as Germany were still taking part in meaningful qualifiers, in their 2 away games before that they drew against Greece & lost to Lithuania, South Korea are much more impressive opponents than those two sides. The country goes wild for their returning stars who earn their wages in the top European leagues & they will want to put on a show for the fans & build confidence before their game against the UAE on Tuesday. South Korea have lost just 1 in their last 14, against Japan & have won 2-1 in friendlies against Ghana & Serbia - both better teams than Poland, at odds of 8/11 they need to be backed.

Back to meaningful games & we're happy to take on one of the home nations, Northern Ireland when they host lowly Estonia at Windsor Park in a Euro 2012 qualifier. When the sides met in Tallinn Estonia prevailed with a 4-1 scoreline & they still have a realistic chance of sneaking 2nd place in the group if they win this game. Northern Ireland are not a good side  have struggled to score goals for years now, half of their 8 goals in qualifying came in one game at home to the Faroe Islands & we're not expecting them to change now. That being said Estonia are definitely weaker when travelling although they can pull off results as shown last year when they beat Serbia in Belgrade, they're outsiders for this game & can be backed at a big 15/8 in the draw no bet market with Coral.

Selections:

South Korea to beat Poland at 8/11 (several) 12pm kickoff GMT

Estonia to beat Northern Ireland in the draw no bet market at 15/8 with Coral

Belgium to come Baku with 3 points

Friday evening brings us a raft of European Championship matches to get our teeth into; we've selected our best bets from across the continent, searching from Valletta to Tbilisi to bring you three selections.

First up we've picked Belgium to beat Azerbaijan in Group A. Belgium boast an impressive squad that includes the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, Marouanne Fellaini, Dan Van Buyten and 22 year old attacking midfielder Axel Witsel. George Leekens team are unbeaten in six including the reverse of this fixture in which they came out on top the 4-1 winners. Currently 74 places above the Azeri in the FIFA rankings we see no reason why this one wont go with form in favour of the 1980 European Championship runners-up.  You can get 4/9 with various bookmakers on the Belgium triumph. The Belgium HT/FT odds of 11/10 also look backable.

Estonia travel the near 1000 mile trip to Slovenia facing an uphill struggle. Slovenia are best priced at 10/29 to beat the side ranked 79 by FIFA. Estonia are without a point, or a goal, in their last 6 away matches which included defeat to the Faroe Islands. In their most recent home matches Slovenia have earnt a credible home draw against Belgium and were narrowly defeated by Italy. Their record against Estonia is very good with a 83% win ratio. Priced at just better than 1/3 we think this really is 'Like Buying Money'.

We also think that Wales will be good enough for a draw against Zlatko Kranjcar's Montenegro at the Cardiff City Stadium. Both sides to earn a Group G point in the Welsh capital is priced at  23/10 with various firms. Wales are pointless in their European Qualifying campaign to date whereas Montenegro have impressed so far hauling 11 points from their opening 5 games, including a point against England at Wembley. Although the form stats point towards a likely away victory we think that Gary Speed's team, including Craig Bellamy, Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Robert Earnshaw are good enough to claim a point in this one.

Selections
Belgium to beat Azerbaijan at 4/9 (Various)
Slovenia to beat Estonia at 10/29 (bwin)
Wales and Montenegro to draw at 23/10 (Various)