(Frankel makes his comeback in the Lockinge & should win, but by how far?)
Frankel returns running over a mile again in the Lockinge & he was imperious at the distance last year, beating top rivals with ease, although the plan is to step in distance later in the year it looks implausible that any of today's rivals will be able to cope with his high cruising speed & impressive turn of foot. There are however a few doubts regarding the Galileo colt as he suffered what was described as a minor setback in training & his reappearance in this race was in doubt for a time. It also remains to be seen whether he's trained on - we've seen classic winners return as 4 year olds a few times over the last decade & often they've not lived up to their 3 year old careers, Frankel isn't a North Light or Workforce though. Excelebration is probably Frankel's chief rival here, with excellent form last year, winning on every occasion he didn't face Frankel but taking a beating 3 times against the monster. Excelebration could potentially have been last year's dominant miler if it hadn't been for Frankel & has now switched from Marco Botti to master trainer Aidan O'Brien & has the benefit of a run under his belt winning at the Curragh in style. Richard Hannon runs two in Strong Suit & Dubawi Gold but he hasn't really had the great start to the season he usually has & they both look up against it, Strong Suit's form with give in the ground really doesn't inspire. With pacemakers for both Frankel & Excelebration the race could be interesting from a tactical perspective & there are some shortish odds around Frankel winning by big distances but we reckon it might be slightly tougher on his seasonal debut & backing Frankel to win by 3 lengths or under with Totesport at 13/8 is the best bet.
(Bertiewhittle is a horse on the upgrade & can take the 6 furlong handicap)
The 2.30 looks like a really competitive handicap, especially with only 15 runners, one short of most bookmakers paying on 4 places but the trick is to find a horse with the potential to outrun its current mark & Bertiewhittle could be the one to do that here. Most of the runners look thoroughly exposed with only three 4 year olds taking their chance: Bertiewhittle, Whaileyy & Pabusar. Pabusar has competed in Listed or better company on 5 of his 11 runs, including an underwhelming comeback in the Cammidge at Doncaster & his handicap mark is probably staying a little high at the moment for him to win. Whaileyy looks to be fancied according to the betting but we've reservations for a horse that hasn't appeared to act on ground with a bit of juice in it before & with its improved form this year all being on the all weather, he'll need to prove that form is carried across to the turf before we take a chance. Bertiewhittle is by Bahamian Bounty so underfoot give shouldn't pose a problem & he won pretty impressively at Chester on soft ground to confirm that, with 9 finishes in the first 3 places from 15 runs he's pretty consistent. Although Bertiewhittle could only finish 15th of 24 on his comeback that was a pretty hot Newmarket handicap & he wasn't too far away at the end & endured a somewhat troubled passage, it should put the gelding spot on for this race. Mac's Power is relatively short in the market & maybe that's because Kieren Fallon is riding, nearly all his form comes on quicker ground than this & we're happy to swerve this one. Bertiewhittle has had his comeback run, is a young & improving sort & will handle conditions, odds of 7/1 are very reasonable & should be taken.
Selections:
Newbury 2.30 - Bertiewhittle to win at 7/1 (general)
Newbury 3.40 - Frankel to win by 3 lengths & under at 13/8 (Totesport)
No comments:
Post a Comment