Formula One returns after the summer break & the early practice sessions saw weather much the same as our weather back home.
Spa-Francorchamps is one of the drivers' favourites & is usually an exciting watch with its mix of changeable weather conditions, sweeping corners & propensity for accidents, safety cars & general chaos.
That doesn't mean we're looking for an outsider at a huge price to take the race win but the likes of Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg at tasty prices of 16/1 and 25/1 to make the podium are worth a small punt.
Sebastian Vettel & Mark Webber are the favourites to win the race but I suspect McLaren will be strong & 7/4 for a McLaren to win the race looks like a value bet to me, & even 5/1 for a Ferrari to come home in front might be worth a small flutter - you could back both (dutching) and still turn a small profit if it doesn't work out for the Red Bulls.
And while we're hunting for value, Mark Webber at between 4/1 and 5/1 to take another pole position is worth a look as he held the upper hand over Vettel before the break even if starting at the front has not helped him overly as when the lights go out, he tends to head backwards.
bwin offer an interesting market on whether Red Bull (18/19), McLaren (11/4) or Ferrari (11/1) will get both of their drivers into the top three in qualifying. However, I fancy the 29/10 on offer for any other outcome - with both Fernando Alonso & Lewis Hamilton far stronger in qualifying than their team-mates, & the threat of some bad weather around, a mixed up front of the grid is entirely possible.
Selections:Neither Red Bull, McLaren or Ferrari to get both cars into top three of qualifying at 29/10 (bwin)
Mark Webber to take pole at 5/1
A McLaren to win the race at 7/4
Michael Schumacher / Nico Rosberg to finish in the top three at 25/1 & 16/1 respectively
By John Pennington of www.lunchwatchman.com for Like Buying Money follow on twitter @jspennington
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Friday, 26 August 2011
We seek him here, we seek him there..........
......... that damned Elusive Pimpernel! Because that's the horse that can deliver us to riches on Saturday with a deserved win in Windsor's Listed August Stakes. John Dunlop's charge was highly impressive as a 2 year old with a win in the Acomb & finishing 2nd to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy, then winning the Craven Stakes as a 3 year old before starting as 9/2 2nd favourite & finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas. He wasn't seen again as a 3 year old but has run some good races in defeat in 3 Group 3's & 5th in a decent Listed race. With an official rating 9 pounds clear of his challengers he should take all the beating & with odds against available & the Like Buying Money team will be hoping to be considerably richer come Sunday morning. Brushing is a danger as she takes a marked drop in class after finishing down the field at big prices in 2 of the best female only races this season, Classic Punch should help set a gallop that can play right to the Elusive Quality colt's strengths & Elusive Pimpernel should comfortably prevail. Odds of 7/4 with William Hill are more than generous as we believe they should be closer to odds on.
Elsewhere during the day there are good meetings at Newmarket, Goodwood & Beverley & we will go to the first race at Goodwood for what should be a simple way to get a good start to the day. Drunken Sailor won this last year & should follow up at his preferred distance of 1m6f even though carrying a 5lb Group 3 penalty. That penalty was gained by beating the useful Harris Tweed last time over 2 furlongs shorter but this distance will see Drunken Sailor in a much better light. Akmal would be dangerous if showing the form that has bagged him a Group 2 & Group 3 but he seems to need pretty quick ground to show his best whilst our pick seems to handle most conditions. Sir Mark Prescott seems to have also tried to avoid softish ground with his runner Motrice & we're unconvinced by her overall level of form anyway, get on side with Drunken Sailor at 6/5.
For our final pick we go to Yorkshire & Beverley racecourse & their best race of the year the Listed Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes which has attracted a very nice & competitive field of runners. Captain Dunne will be popular as he's hugely consistent for a sprinter finishing in the first 3 on 22 of his 45 starts but has a difficult draw as 2nd widest in stall 14 & may just come up short. Course & distance winner Group Therapy has chances under the strong riding of great sprint jockey Graham Gibbons but has never managed victory at this level, slightly bigger odds than the 13/2 available would be tempting & maybe a punt on the place only market could get rewards. Our pick is another course & distance winner, John Quinn's pacey Duchess Dora whose handicap mark has risen as she keeps putting in big performances in good handicaps, she has a nice draw & her style of running means she has a great chance & stand out odds of 9/2 with Betfred are begging to be taken.
Selections:
Windsor 6.10 - Elusive Pimpernel at 7/4 with William Hill
Goodwood 2.15 - Drunken Sailor at 6/5 (general)
Beverley 3.35 - Duchess Dora at 9/2 with Betfred (7/2 elsewhere)
Elsewhere during the day there are good meetings at Newmarket, Goodwood & Beverley & we will go to the first race at Goodwood for what should be a simple way to get a good start to the day. Drunken Sailor won this last year & should follow up at his preferred distance of 1m6f even though carrying a 5lb Group 3 penalty. That penalty was gained by beating the useful Harris Tweed last time over 2 furlongs shorter but this distance will see Drunken Sailor in a much better light. Akmal would be dangerous if showing the form that has bagged him a Group 2 & Group 3 but he seems to need pretty quick ground to show his best whilst our pick seems to handle most conditions. Sir Mark Prescott seems to have also tried to avoid softish ground with his runner Motrice & we're unconvinced by her overall level of form anyway, get on side with Drunken Sailor at 6/5.
For our final pick we go to Yorkshire & Beverley racecourse & their best race of the year the Listed Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes which has attracted a very nice & competitive field of runners. Captain Dunne will be popular as he's hugely consistent for a sprinter finishing in the first 3 on 22 of his 45 starts but has a difficult draw as 2nd widest in stall 14 & may just come up short. Course & distance winner Group Therapy has chances under the strong riding of great sprint jockey Graham Gibbons but has never managed victory at this level, slightly bigger odds than the 13/2 available would be tempting & maybe a punt on the place only market could get rewards. Our pick is another course & distance winner, John Quinn's pacey Duchess Dora whose handicap mark has risen as she keeps putting in big performances in good handicaps, she has a nice draw & her style of running means she has a great chance & stand out odds of 9/2 with Betfred are begging to be taken.
Selections:
Windsor 6.10 - Elusive Pimpernel at 7/4 with William Hill
Goodwood 2.15 - Drunken Sailor at 6/5 (general)
Beverley 3.35 - Duchess Dora at 9/2 with Betfred (7/2 elsewhere)
Ports Ahoy! Valiant effort to be rewarded...
We got 2 out of 3 right with our picks last week with just Charlton letting the picks down after leading 2-0 & conceding an equaliser in the 91st minute of their match against Scunthorpe, elsewhere Middlesbrough came from behind to beat Birmingham comfortably & Wayne Rooney's header to make it 3-0 for United versus Spurs ensured the over 2.5 goals pick was successful - we want 100% success this week & have scoured the markets for great bets to share with you.
In League two, unbeaten Port Vale take on Southend at Vale Park. Since the return of manager Micky Adams, after his ill fated reign at Sheffield United, the Valiants have won two & drawn two of their opening four league games. Southend have suffered two straight defeats without scoring a goal after & have won only one of their last 11 league matches away from home. So we fancy Port Vale to be too strong for Southend, with Sean Rigg adding to his 4 goals, & stretching their unbeaten run to five games at a best price of 11/8.
We also think that Portsmouth and Cardiff will share the spoils in the Championship. The Fratton Park draw is best priced at 12/5 for the two 2008 FA Cup finalists to come away with a point apiece. To date the South Coast based club have picked up 5 points from their Championship matches, losing only once to high-flyers Brighton after Liam Lawrence missed an added on time penalty. An opening day draw away at Middlesbrough & a win at home against Reading have been the highlights so far. Defeat in the first round of the League Cup means they have had a week off since their goalless match against Bristol City. Cardiff on the other hand played 120 minutues against the fancied League 1 side Huddersfield at the Cardiff City Stadium, although Malky Mackay rested the majority of his first teamers summer signings Craig Conway & Don Cowie played the full match & there were also runouts for Kenny Miller, Andrew Taylor & Peter Whittingham. Like Pompey, Cardiff have had a decent start, claiming 7 points from an available 12, 3 of which came in the opening day smash & grab win at Upton Park & the Bluebirds & have also only lost to Brighton in the league. We fancy this one to be tight and although both teams will be looking for victory following away draws last weekend we think the likely outcome will follow suit and end in a draw.
Stepping up from the lower leagues to the top flight, we've noted a bet that has to be taken on value grounds alone. The bookmakers have priced Bolton Wanderers as virtual no hopers at 15/2 to beat Liverpool away at Anfield but that is underestimating the Trotters chance especially at this stage in the season. Bolton were hugely impressive on the opening weekend, stuffing QPR 4-0 at Loftus Road before putting up a valiant & attacking performance against genuine title contenders Man City to eventually lose 3-2. Manager Owen Coyle seems determined to keep their free-flowing style even in away games & that should mean that goals are always likely (at both ends), that reduces the chance of a draw & increases the value in the odds of either side winning. Liverpool dispatched Arsenal last week but in truth the Gunners were in disarray & an offside goal helped their cause & they were very average in the 2nd half against Sunderland in week 1. Dalglish played a strong side in the Carling Cup but their £35m striker Andy Carroll still wasn't looking at his sharpest & a few players may still be feeling that game come Saturday. If this turns into a game of goals we fancy Bolton to outscore Liverpool so long as Gary Cahill can impose his physical strength on wily Luis Suarez & limit the Uruguayan's chances.
Selections:
Port Vale to beat Southend at 11/8 (Victor Chandler)
Portsmouth and Cardiff to draw at 12/5 (Victor Chandler)
Bolton to beat Liverpool at 15/2 (general)
A £10 treble with Victor Chandler could net you a healthy £686 return & is a lot more likely to come in than those 7+ team accumulators we regularly see pass across our local bookies counter!
We also want to tip over 2.5 goals in Sunday's big match match between Manchester United & Arsenal. Last term, games at Old Trafford saw an average of over 3 goals and matches involving Arsenal as the away team saw an even higher average. We see no reason why this trend will stop and suggest that this one could rain goals. Manchester United have looked strong thus far going forward with some supporters claiming they haven't even got out of first gear, Arsene Wenger's men need a performance to hush the 'boo-boys' and will be doing all they can to claim victory in the North West, both defences are vulnerable and both attacks clearly have the ability to score for that reason we think the match will produce at least 3 goals, Paddy Power are offering 4/6 on over 2.5 goals.
Manchester United vs Arsenal - over 2.5 goals at 4/6+
In League two, unbeaten Port Vale take on Southend at Vale Park. Since the return of manager Micky Adams, after his ill fated reign at Sheffield United, the Valiants have won two & drawn two of their opening four league games. Southend have suffered two straight defeats without scoring a goal after & have won only one of their last 11 league matches away from home. So we fancy Port Vale to be too strong for Southend, with Sean Rigg adding to his 4 goals, & stretching their unbeaten run to five games at a best price of 11/8.
We also think that Portsmouth and Cardiff will share the spoils in the Championship. The Fratton Park draw is best priced at 12/5 for the two 2008 FA Cup finalists to come away with a point apiece. To date the South Coast based club have picked up 5 points from their Championship matches, losing only once to high-flyers Brighton after Liam Lawrence missed an added on time penalty. An opening day draw away at Middlesbrough & a win at home against Reading have been the highlights so far. Defeat in the first round of the League Cup means they have had a week off since their goalless match against Bristol City. Cardiff on the other hand played 120 minutues against the fancied League 1 side Huddersfield at the Cardiff City Stadium, although Malky Mackay rested the majority of his first teamers summer signings Craig Conway & Don Cowie played the full match & there were also runouts for Kenny Miller, Andrew Taylor & Peter Whittingham. Like Pompey, Cardiff have had a decent start, claiming 7 points from an available 12, 3 of which came in the opening day smash & grab win at Upton Park & the Bluebirds & have also only lost to Brighton in the league. We fancy this one to be tight and although both teams will be looking for victory following away draws last weekend we think the likely outcome will follow suit and end in a draw.
Stepping up from the lower leagues to the top flight, we've noted a bet that has to be taken on value grounds alone. The bookmakers have priced Bolton Wanderers as virtual no hopers at 15/2 to beat Liverpool away at Anfield but that is underestimating the Trotters chance especially at this stage in the season. Bolton were hugely impressive on the opening weekend, stuffing QPR 4-0 at Loftus Road before putting up a valiant & attacking performance against genuine title contenders Man City to eventually lose 3-2. Manager Owen Coyle seems determined to keep their free-flowing style even in away games & that should mean that goals are always likely (at both ends), that reduces the chance of a draw & increases the value in the odds of either side winning. Liverpool dispatched Arsenal last week but in truth the Gunners were in disarray & an offside goal helped their cause & they were very average in the 2nd half against Sunderland in week 1. Dalglish played a strong side in the Carling Cup but their £35m striker Andy Carroll still wasn't looking at his sharpest & a few players may still be feeling that game come Saturday. If this turns into a game of goals we fancy Bolton to outscore Liverpool so long as Gary Cahill can impose his physical strength on wily Luis Suarez & limit the Uruguayan's chances.
Selections:
Port Vale to beat Southend at 11/8 (Victor Chandler)
Portsmouth and Cardiff to draw at 12/5 (Victor Chandler)
Bolton to beat Liverpool at 15/2 (general)
A £10 treble with Victor Chandler could net you a healthy £686 return & is a lot more likely to come in than those 7+ team accumulators we regularly see pass across our local bookies counter!
We also want to tip over 2.5 goals in Sunday's big match match between Manchester United & Arsenal. Last term, games at Old Trafford saw an average of over 3 goals and matches involving Arsenal as the away team saw an even higher average. We see no reason why this trend will stop and suggest that this one could rain goals. Manchester United have looked strong thus far going forward with some supporters claiming they haven't even got out of first gear, Arsene Wenger's men need a performance to hush the 'boo-boys' and will be doing all they can to claim victory in the North West, both defences are vulnerable and both attacks clearly have the ability to score for that reason we think the match will produce at least 3 goals, Paddy Power are offering 4/6 on over 2.5 goals.
Manchester United vs Arsenal - over 2.5 goals at 4/6+
Friday, 19 August 2011
I'm tellin' y'all it's Sabotage
Saturday's the last day of York's meeting & has the signature race the 1 mile 6 furlongs Ebor Heritage Handicap that has been won by some good staying types over the years & is often a stepping stone to horses going for the biggest staying race of all - the Melbourne Cup. This year there is a decent field with everything rated within 12 pounds of the top weight, meaning that those near the top of the handicap have a good chance despite their carrying big weights, it's certainly different than the 1990's where nearly every winner carried less than 9 stone & even a couple of winners off below 8. We like Modun a lot but this is a big step up in distance on an easy enough surface but if Stoute's horse improves for this extra 4 furlongs (compared to last 2 runs) he's certainly dangerous & has finished great galloping 2nds the last twice. The form of Modun's runs ties in with Green Destiny who has upheld that by winning the Group 3 on Friday but there is another horse in the Ebor whose form is closely linked but may handle this distance better, Godolphin's Lost In The Moment has put in great runs over 10 furlongs finishing behind Modun & Green Destiny whilst giving them both 5 pounds before improving over a distance of 2 miles last time & running Opinion Poll to a head. He had Fox Hunt in behind that day whilst running off level weights yet gets 5 pounds off of that rival today, we expect Dettori to hold him up & deliver him with a late thrust to win convincingly & have the biggest weight carrying performance since the great Sea Pigeon won in 1979.
Opinion Poll runs in the race before & can give the form a boost by delivering another Group 2 success in the Lonsdale Cup. He won the race last year & although is having to carry a 3 pound penalty is a class above his rivals having finished 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup against the great Fame & Glory plus finding the very nice Whispering Gallery too hot at Dubai in the Winter a couple of times. Chief rival could be Harris Tweed who finished 2nd behind Await The Dawn a couple of starts back but this is a big step up in distance plus we'd question whether Await The Dawn is as good as some think. The other horses with Group 2 penalties picked them up in some weakish races other than Duncan when winning the Prix Foy in softish conditions, he'd be the one we'd pick to make Opinion Poll worry most but he's held when judged by their respective Gold Cup runs.
Finally we switch across to Chester and we have another Godolphin pick in another staying race but this time with their 2nd string, according to the colours at least. Sabotage likes quickish ground & should get it at Chester tomorrow, he's slipped a couple of pounds in the weights & is comfortable taking a lead which is a huge tactical advantage at the ever turning Cheshire track. Stall 1 will help & Robert Winston can bag the lead & dictate the pace with any potential traffic problems in behind also helping, generous odds of 20/1 dictate that we & you have a sneaky each way punt.
Selections:
York 3.05 Opinion Poll at 100/30
York 3.40 - Lost In The Moment at 8/1 with William Hill
Chester 4.10 - Sabotage each way at 20/1
If you fancy a treble the above will pay out at 818/1 !
Opinion Poll runs in the race before & can give the form a boost by delivering another Group 2 success in the Lonsdale Cup. He won the race last year & although is having to carry a 3 pound penalty is a class above his rivals having finished 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup against the great Fame & Glory plus finding the very nice Whispering Gallery too hot at Dubai in the Winter a couple of times. Chief rival could be Harris Tweed who finished 2nd behind Await The Dawn a couple of starts back but this is a big step up in distance plus we'd question whether Await The Dawn is as good as some think. The other horses with Group 2 penalties picked them up in some weakish races other than Duncan when winning the Prix Foy in softish conditions, he'd be the one we'd pick to make Opinion Poll worry most but he's held when judged by their respective Gold Cup runs.
Finally we switch across to Chester and we have another Godolphin pick in another staying race but this time with their 2nd string, according to the colours at least. Sabotage likes quickish ground & should get it at Chester tomorrow, he's slipped a couple of pounds in the weights & is comfortable taking a lead which is a huge tactical advantage at the ever turning Cheshire track. Stall 1 will help & Robert Winston can bag the lead & dictate the pace with any potential traffic problems in behind also helping, generous odds of 20/1 dictate that we & you have a sneaky each way punt.
Selections:
York 3.05 Opinion Poll at 100/30
York 3.40 - Lost In The Moment at 8/1 with William Hill
Chester 4.10 - Sabotage each way at 20/1
If you fancy a treble the above will pay out at 818/1 !
Thursday, 18 August 2011
We're 'Addickted' to Charlton
This weekend represents the fourth league match for the sides outside of the top flight. After what seemed a long summer without a major international tournament (no disrespect to the Under 21's or Women) it's now beginning to feel like it was never away. As every week passes we are able to gather more information about the football league sides, which gives us more confidence in our selections, we've picked two sides that we think should pick up home wins and also selected an overs bet thats worth keeping an eye on.
The bookies appear to want to make everybody's Christmas come early with the great prices on offer for Chris Powell's on fire Charlton side, first we got 15/8 for them to beat average Colchester away from home in midweek & now we get 4/5 for them to beat poor Scunthorpe at home. Charlton were always likely to look dangerous in attacking areas but Powell seems to have organised them well defensively, restricting Notts County & then Colchester to just 2 shots on target in their last 2 games, both away. Scunthorpe have an attacking attitude & can be dangerous but Charlton should pick them apart on the counter & could win this by a margin, no need to be clever this week trying to pick a big price one - the 4/5 is huge value & should be taken before the bookies realise their mistake & shorten it.
This Sunday sees Birmingham return from their foreign escapade in Madeira to face the inform Middlesbrough at the Riverside. Middlesbrough have won three from three in league and cup after the disappointment of conceding an injury time equaliser on the opening day against Portsmouth. Whilst Birmingham are in the middle of a transitional period with new boss Chris Houghton still searching for his first choice starting eleven and lacking firepower due to attacking injuries. So we fully expect Boro, with red hot Marvin Emnes (6 goals in 4 games), to continue their fine start to the season at the best price of 6/5.
Likebuyingmoney are lucky enough to be at Old Trafford on Monday night for the clash between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. We have picked out over 2.5 goals, priced at 4/6 for our best bet in this one. Both teams are more than capable of causing the other problems and we think there will be at least three goals in the game. With question marks about Manchester Untied's new signing David De Gea and injury to a variety of The Red Devils defenders we think Spurs have what it takes to break the United resolve which could be the key to this being a winning selection.
Selections
The bookies appear to want to make everybody's Christmas come early with the great prices on offer for Chris Powell's on fire Charlton side, first we got 15/8 for them to beat average Colchester away from home in midweek & now we get 4/5 for them to beat poor Scunthorpe at home. Charlton were always likely to look dangerous in attacking areas but Powell seems to have organised them well defensively, restricting Notts County & then Colchester to just 2 shots on target in their last 2 games, both away. Scunthorpe have an attacking attitude & can be dangerous but Charlton should pick them apart on the counter & could win this by a margin, no need to be clever this week trying to pick a big price one - the 4/5 is huge value & should be taken before the bookies realise their mistake & shorten it.
This Sunday sees Birmingham return from their foreign escapade in Madeira to face the inform Middlesbrough at the Riverside. Middlesbrough have won three from three in league and cup after the disappointment of conceding an injury time equaliser on the opening day against Portsmouth. Whilst Birmingham are in the middle of a transitional period with new boss Chris Houghton still searching for his first choice starting eleven and lacking firepower due to attacking injuries. So we fully expect Boro, with red hot Marvin Emnes (6 goals in 4 games), to continue their fine start to the season at the best price of 6/5.
Likebuyingmoney are lucky enough to be at Old Trafford on Monday night for the clash between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. We have picked out over 2.5 goals, priced at 4/6 for our best bet in this one. Both teams are more than capable of causing the other problems and we think there will be at least three goals in the game. With question marks about Manchester Untied's new signing David De Gea and injury to a variety of The Red Devils defenders we think Spurs have what it takes to break the United resolve which could be the key to this being a winning selection.
Selections
Middlesbrough to beat Birmingham at 6/5 (Coral/Betfred)
Charlton to beat Scunthorpe at 4/5 (general)
Back Over 2.5 goals Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur 4/6 (general)
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
We're Wild about the Fillies
York's Ebor meeting's 2nd day is Ladies Day & is a showcase for the best British female equine talent with 3 races at Listed or higher level restricted to fillies & mares - we've got picks for 2 of the 3.
The feature race is the 1 mile 4 furlongs Yorkshire Oaks & last year's race was a cracker with the exceptional Midday beating the best of the 3 year olds Snow Fairy with a great performance. Neither the winner or runner up take part in this renewal with Midday rerouted to the Juddmonte, finishing a respectable 2nd, & Snow Fairy withdrawn because of the ground & will now run in France on Sunday. This makes our job easier because of the remaining older horses none have the form in the book to be winning a Group 1, Crystal Capella is near the top of the market & is a 3-time Group 2 winner at this distance but at 6 yeras old is not going to be improving & looks held at this level. Vita Nova was unlucky when beaten by the useful Gertrude Bell last time as rider Tom Queally lost his irons when looking to challenge, she's lightly raced & of the older horses she's most likely to improve & can offer a challenge.
The 3 year olds bring top form, none more so than Godolphin's Blue Bunting winner of the 1000 Guineas & Irish Oaks. Always thought of as a middle distance horse it was a bonus for her to win the 1st Fillies Classic & a big disappointment to only finish 4th (should have been 3rd but Dettori dropped his hands) in the English Oaks, she showed that form to be all wrong when triumphing in similar conditions to today in the Irish equivalent. Blue Bunting only beat the tough Banimpire by a short head that day & had Wonder of Wonders back in 3rd, she can uphold that form & at a price of 11/4 is crying out to be backed as the only Group 1 winner in the field. Banimpire has run 9 times already this season, winning 6, & will be a tough competitor but needs to bring more if going to win. Meanwhile Wonder of Wonders has a big reputation but from what we've seen on the track again looks slightly below winning at this level at this time, Aidan O'Brien has had a poor start also with red hot favourite Await The Dawn comprehensively beaten (likebuyingmoney tipped to lay for a place) & other runners performing poorly, she should be avoided.
The 4.15 mile & a half Listed race shouldn't take much working out with one potential star taking on some reasonable sorts. Wild Coco disappointed at Goodwood last time out but the ground was completely against her, she is a German bred (by superstar sire Shirocco) & needs cut in the ground to shopw her best, as shown when cheekily beating the very useful Meeznah on only her 3rd start. Wild Coco is trained by the best man to handle fillies, Henry Cecil & should be able to stamp her authority on this field. She is open to all sorts of improvement & can be competing in & maybe winning Group 1 races this time next year. She's as short as 13/8 with SkyBet so make the most of the 2/1 available with Paddy Power & Coral & prepare to see your money trebled.
Selections:
York 3.40 - Blue Bunting at 11/4 (general)
York 4.15 - Wild Coco at 2/1 with Paddy Power & Coral
The feature race is the 1 mile 4 furlongs Yorkshire Oaks & last year's race was a cracker with the exceptional Midday beating the best of the 3 year olds Snow Fairy with a great performance. Neither the winner or runner up take part in this renewal with Midday rerouted to the Juddmonte, finishing a respectable 2nd, & Snow Fairy withdrawn because of the ground & will now run in France on Sunday. This makes our job easier because of the remaining older horses none have the form in the book to be winning a Group 1, Crystal Capella is near the top of the market & is a 3-time Group 2 winner at this distance but at 6 yeras old is not going to be improving & looks held at this level. Vita Nova was unlucky when beaten by the useful Gertrude Bell last time as rider Tom Queally lost his irons when looking to challenge, she's lightly raced & of the older horses she's most likely to improve & can offer a challenge.
The 3 year olds bring top form, none more so than Godolphin's Blue Bunting winner of the 1000 Guineas & Irish Oaks. Always thought of as a middle distance horse it was a bonus for her to win the 1st Fillies Classic & a big disappointment to only finish 4th (should have been 3rd but Dettori dropped his hands) in the English Oaks, she showed that form to be all wrong when triumphing in similar conditions to today in the Irish equivalent. Blue Bunting only beat the tough Banimpire by a short head that day & had Wonder of Wonders back in 3rd, she can uphold that form & at a price of 11/4 is crying out to be backed as the only Group 1 winner in the field. Banimpire has run 9 times already this season, winning 6, & will be a tough competitor but needs to bring more if going to win. Meanwhile Wonder of Wonders has a big reputation but from what we've seen on the track again looks slightly below winning at this level at this time, Aidan O'Brien has had a poor start also with red hot favourite Await The Dawn comprehensively beaten (likebuyingmoney tipped to lay for a place) & other runners performing poorly, she should be avoided.
The 4.15 mile & a half Listed race shouldn't take much working out with one potential star taking on some reasonable sorts. Wild Coco disappointed at Goodwood last time out but the ground was completely against her, she is a German bred (by superstar sire Shirocco) & needs cut in the ground to shopw her best, as shown when cheekily beating the very useful Meeznah on only her 3rd start. Wild Coco is trained by the best man to handle fillies, Henry Cecil & should be able to stamp her authority on this field. She is open to all sorts of improvement & can be competing in & maybe winning Group 1 races this time next year. She's as short as 13/8 with SkyBet so make the most of the 2/1 available with Paddy Power & Coral & prepare to see your money trebled.
Selections:
York 3.40 - Blue Bunting at 11/4 (general)
York 4.15 - Wild Coco at 2/1 with Paddy Power & Coral
Forget Sea The Stars we want to Sea some Moon
York's Ebor Festival is one of the highlights of the Flat racing season with 4 excellent days of racing kicking off with the Juddmonte International day on Wednesday, & with great supporting races, the Juddmonte International may be the focus but isn't the only reason for watching.
The Acomb Stakes is the first Pattern race of the meeting & is one of the first opportunities to see the better two year olds over this stiffer test of 7 furlongs & has been won by Classic winners King's Best, the millenium's 2000 Guineas winner & sire of Workforce, & Rule of Law the 2004 St Leger victor. This suggests that there isn't one particular type of horse needed to be successful in the race but if the rain continues we could end up with some softish ground & siding with a stamina laden type could pave the way to success. Elaine Burke's Now My Sun has already won over 7 furlongs on Good to soft ground at Haydock & is likely to be a huge price. His sire Notnowcato was a 3 time Group 1 winner including the 2006 Juddmonte & could turn out to be half decent in his second career, although it's too early to tell with this being his first crop of 2 year olds. The Aidan O'Brien trained Furner's Green won well in its opener & his sire Dylan Thomas handled all ground, he's likely to challenge but will be a short enough price, Now My Sun can be backed at 50/1 on Betfair & 33/1 with the regular bookies - a speculative each way punt looks worth considering for the large reward on offer.
The feature race is the Juddmonte International and sees a field of 6 runners including 4 that are already Group 1 winners yet one of the two that hasn't won at the highest level is currently the odds on favourite, Aidan O'Brien's progressive Await The Dawn. The Giant's Causeway colt has won impressively in its two starts this year but that has been against modest opposition for the grade, a new best is needed to figure iin this decent contest. Twice Over & Midday are multiple Group 1 winners & both have won at the track, they are high class animals & will likely be near come the end of the race. O'Brien's other runner is Roderic O'Connor won the Irish 2000 Guineas but hasn't been at his best in his last 2 starts in the French & Irish Derbies, if the race is run to suit he would have a squeak at a good price plus has the valuable 3 year old allowance meaning he is racing off just 8-11. Zafisio won a Group 1 as a juvenile but isn't at that level of form anymore & Windsor Palace is a likely pacemaker. This isn't the greatest Group 1 of all time but is certainly decent & backing a largely unproven 4 year old against 2 proven winners at this level is an unattractive proposition, I'd rather be a layer than a backer & am prepared to take Await The Dawn on even for a place at around 1.4 or lower on Betfair.
The Great Voltigeur is a key St Leger trial & sees 3 horses heading the market. Namibian is currently 9/2 but is likely to drift out for good reason, trainer Mark Johnston is only at a 9.5% strike rate for the last 2 weeks with 6 winners from 63 runners - this isn't overly worrying but it certainly hasn't been a vintage season & Namibian's form certainly isn't up to that shown by 3 time Group 1 runner up Seville. O'Brien's inmate has come close on several occasions & could be suited by the softish conditions however best odds of 11/8 are skinny considering his strike rate of just one win from the 6 races he's contested. Sea Moon however has had just 3 runs & is open to considerable improvement with this being just its 4th run, there was much talk that this was Stoute's best 3 year old & may well have run in the Derby if Stoute's other runner Carlton House was owned by anyone other than the Queen. This is Sea Moon's first run over a mile & a half & he will almost certainly appreciate the step up in distance after taking some time to get going before asserting himself & winning a Class 2 handicap off of a mark of 92 on his only start this season. Sea Moon looks a real St Leger type & can use his stamina to good effect today at a price of 7/2 before glory in the last Classic of the season.
Selections:
York 2.30 - Now My Sun each way at 33/1 General
York 3.05 - Sea Moon at 7/2 with William Hill
York 3.40 - Lay Await The Dawn for a place at 1.4 & shorter (2 to be placed)
The Acomb Stakes is the first Pattern race of the meeting & is one of the first opportunities to see the better two year olds over this stiffer test of 7 furlongs & has been won by Classic winners King's Best, the millenium's 2000 Guineas winner & sire of Workforce, & Rule of Law the 2004 St Leger victor. This suggests that there isn't one particular type of horse needed to be successful in the race but if the rain continues we could end up with some softish ground & siding with a stamina laden type could pave the way to success. Elaine Burke's Now My Sun has already won over 7 furlongs on Good to soft ground at Haydock & is likely to be a huge price. His sire Notnowcato was a 3 time Group 1 winner including the 2006 Juddmonte & could turn out to be half decent in his second career, although it's too early to tell with this being his first crop of 2 year olds. The Aidan O'Brien trained Furner's Green won well in its opener & his sire Dylan Thomas handled all ground, he's likely to challenge but will be a short enough price, Now My Sun can be backed at 50/1 on Betfair & 33/1 with the regular bookies - a speculative each way punt looks worth considering for the large reward on offer.
The feature race is the Juddmonte International and sees a field of 6 runners including 4 that are already Group 1 winners yet one of the two that hasn't won at the highest level is currently the odds on favourite, Aidan O'Brien's progressive Await The Dawn. The Giant's Causeway colt has won impressively in its two starts this year but that has been against modest opposition for the grade, a new best is needed to figure iin this decent contest. Twice Over & Midday are multiple Group 1 winners & both have won at the track, they are high class animals & will likely be near come the end of the race. O'Brien's other runner is Roderic O'Connor won the Irish 2000 Guineas but hasn't been at his best in his last 2 starts in the French & Irish Derbies, if the race is run to suit he would have a squeak at a good price plus has the valuable 3 year old allowance meaning he is racing off just 8-11. Zafisio won a Group 1 as a juvenile but isn't at that level of form anymore & Windsor Palace is a likely pacemaker. This isn't the greatest Group 1 of all time but is certainly decent & backing a largely unproven 4 year old against 2 proven winners at this level is an unattractive proposition, I'd rather be a layer than a backer & am prepared to take Await The Dawn on even for a place at around 1.4 or lower on Betfair.
The Great Voltigeur is a key St Leger trial & sees 3 horses heading the market. Namibian is currently 9/2 but is likely to drift out for good reason, trainer Mark Johnston is only at a 9.5% strike rate for the last 2 weeks with 6 winners from 63 runners - this isn't overly worrying but it certainly hasn't been a vintage season & Namibian's form certainly isn't up to that shown by 3 time Group 1 runner up Seville. O'Brien's inmate has come close on several occasions & could be suited by the softish conditions however best odds of 11/8 are skinny considering his strike rate of just one win from the 6 races he's contested. Sea Moon however has had just 3 runs & is open to considerable improvement with this being just its 4th run, there was much talk that this was Stoute's best 3 year old & may well have run in the Derby if Stoute's other runner Carlton House was owned by anyone other than the Queen. This is Sea Moon's first run over a mile & a half & he will almost certainly appreciate the step up in distance after taking some time to get going before asserting himself & winning a Class 2 handicap off of a mark of 92 on his only start this season. Sea Moon looks a real St Leger type & can use his stamina to good effect today at a price of 7/2 before glory in the last Classic of the season.
Selections:
York 2.30 - Now My Sun each way at 33/1 General
York 3.05 - Sea Moon at 7/2 with William Hill
York 3.40 - Lay Await The Dawn for a place at 1.4 & shorter (2 to be placed)
Monday, 15 August 2011
Perfect records to stay intact?
It can be dangerous to read too much into early season form but when it is coupled with pre season thoughts it certainly shouldn't be discounted. We're siding with three teams that have been quick out of the blocks, are professional outfits likely to have their players that few percent fitter than other teams and think that this approach can deliver some tidy profits from the midweek's football.
Charlton are one of two teams with a perfect record & are up against an average Colchester side. Colchester had a great result against Preston on the opening day but Preston were much too open & Charlton won't be so easy having only let Notts County have 2 shots on target at the weekend. Chris Powell seems to have recognised his side's weaknesses and the defence is more organised plus up front they have upgraded with the excellent, for the division he's in, Bradley Wright-Phillips. Odds of 15/8 suggest they should only be winning this game just over one in 3 times but that underestimates Charlton's strength in many areas and we feel they can contain Colchester whilst offering a potent attacking threat themselves and keep their winning record going.
Also in League One we have gone with the other side with a perfect record - Sheffield United at home to Walsall. After relegation from the Championship, the 'Blades' have won two from two without conceding a goal. Walsall have also made a good start to the season beating struggling Leyton Orient, thanks to a screamer from Adam Chambers and a draw in a ill-tempered match with Hartlepool, but we fully expect them to find the Blades a much tougher proposition. Last season Walsall had the third worst away record in the league and at a reasonable price of 3/4 - Danny Wilson's side, with a healthy competition of attacking options, should continue their flying start.
Finally we think that Cardiff will beat Championship newcomers Brighton. Cardiff are an attractive 11/10 to see off the East Sussex based club. Both clubs have a maximum six points from their opening two games. Cardiff opened with a smash and grab win against West Ham at Upton Park followed up with an impressive first half dismantling of rivals Bristol City. Malky Mackay had a big rebuilding job on his hands after 12 players left the Bluebirds in the summer but the early signs are positive for the South Wales club. Craig Conway, Don Cowie and Andrew Taylor look solid Championship players. Young Joe Mason arrived from Plymouth for £250,000. An injury to midfielder Aron Gunnarsson in the Severnside derby meant Mason was introduced and made an instant impact with his direct running from central areas. Cardiff are likely to hand Mason a start against the Seagulls should Gunnarsson not recover from his knock. Although there isn't anything between the teams in terms of points so far we think Cardiff's attacking options will prove too much for Gus Poyet's Brighton.
Selections:
Charlton to beat Colchester at 15/8 (SkyBet)
Sheffield United to beat Walsall at 3/4 (Victor Chandler)
Cardiff to beat Brighton 11/10 (Coral)
The treble pays over 9/1
Charlton are one of two teams with a perfect record & are up against an average Colchester side. Colchester had a great result against Preston on the opening day but Preston were much too open & Charlton won't be so easy having only let Notts County have 2 shots on target at the weekend. Chris Powell seems to have recognised his side's weaknesses and the defence is more organised plus up front they have upgraded with the excellent, for the division he's in, Bradley Wright-Phillips. Odds of 15/8 suggest they should only be winning this game just over one in 3 times but that underestimates Charlton's strength in many areas and we feel they can contain Colchester whilst offering a potent attacking threat themselves and keep their winning record going.
Also in League One we have gone with the other side with a perfect record - Sheffield United at home to Walsall. After relegation from the Championship, the 'Blades' have won two from two without conceding a goal. Walsall have also made a good start to the season beating struggling Leyton Orient, thanks to a screamer from Adam Chambers and a draw in a ill-tempered match with Hartlepool, but we fully expect them to find the Blades a much tougher proposition. Last season Walsall had the third worst away record in the league and at a reasonable price of 3/4 - Danny Wilson's side, with a healthy competition of attacking options, should continue their flying start.
Finally we think that Cardiff will beat Championship newcomers Brighton. Cardiff are an attractive 11/10 to see off the East Sussex based club. Both clubs have a maximum six points from their opening two games. Cardiff opened with a smash and grab win against West Ham at Upton Park followed up with an impressive first half dismantling of rivals Bristol City. Malky Mackay had a big rebuilding job on his hands after 12 players left the Bluebirds in the summer but the early signs are positive for the South Wales club. Craig Conway, Don Cowie and Andrew Taylor look solid Championship players. Young Joe Mason arrived from Plymouth for £250,000. An injury to midfielder Aron Gunnarsson in the Severnside derby meant Mason was introduced and made an instant impact with his direct running from central areas. Cardiff are likely to hand Mason a start against the Seagulls should Gunnarsson not recover from his knock. Although there isn't anything between the teams in terms of points so far we think Cardiff's attacking options will prove too much for Gus Poyet's Brighton.
Selections:
Charlton to beat Colchester at 15/8 (SkyBet)
Sheffield United to beat Walsall at 3/4 (Victor Chandler)
Cardiff to beat Brighton 11/10 (Coral)
The treble pays over 9/1
Friday, 12 August 2011
Carlisle facing a tough Gigg against Bury
Following our profit making selections last weekend we've once again looked through the weekend league fixtures and picked our 'best bets'.
In the 3 o'clock kick offs our attention turned to the lower leagues. In League One Carlisle visit 'The Shakers' Bury at Gigg Lane, with both sides looking for their first League wins of the season. Opening day saw Bury gain a good point away at promotion favourites Huddersfield, which was followed up in midweek, by a 3-1 defeat of Coventry in the Carling Cup despite losing club captain Steven Schumacher to injury in the first half. On the other hand Carlisle suffered a heavy home defeat to Notts County, with their goal scoring problems highlighted by not mounting a serious chance on the visitors goal. Therefore we fancy Bury will be too strong for the Cumbrian side, with prolific goalscorer Ryan Lowe (27 goals last season) continuing his hot streak of three goals in two games, so take advantage of the attractive 13/10 price.
We also think that Arsenal are good value in their opening Premier League fixture against Newcastle at St James Park. The Gunners are best priced at 23/20 to come away from the North East with the full three points. Both clubs have had turbulent summers, Arsenal are resigned to losing influential midfielders Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. Newcastle rarely like to be off the back pages and the rift between the club and Joey Barton rumbles on.
On the pitch Arsenal welcome back a fully fit Thomas Vermaelen to the centre of defence, its fair to say when he plays Arsenal look far more composed and concede fewer goals. Without including wantaway Nasri and Fabregas, Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger is likely to use Tomas Rosicky in a forward free role behind an attacking front three of Robin Van Persie, Theo Walcott and new signing Gervinho which we think will be too stong for the Toon defence thats lost the impressive Jose Enrique for a report £6 million to Liverpool. Newcastle will include new signings of their own in Demba Ba and Frenchman Sylvain Marveaux however we don't think they'll cope with the Gunners.
This fixture last year produced one of the greatest Premier League matches of all time in a 4-4 draw, we're not expecting quite the same spectacle today but think Arsenal should nudge it by the odd goal.
As it's the opening day of the Premier League season our goalscorer expert John Nash has made his selections and suggests putting them in an anytime goalscorer yankee
C. Adam (15-8) - Scored against today's opponents Sunderland at home for Blackpool last season and should be on penalty duty with Gerrard ruled out. it's worth noting Liverpool were awarded seven penalties at Anfield last term.
D. Drogba (6-5) - Loves the battle against Stoke, has a good record against the Potters scoring home and away against Tony Pulis' side in 2010/11.
B. Hangeland (7-1) - The big defender scored 4 of his 6 goals last season at Craven Cottage, one of which came against Aston Villa. We think he's got a good change of repeating that feat today.
W. Rooney (5-6) - Likely Man United penalty taker, also has a good record against West Brom, scored against the Midlands outfit last season.
Returns approximately 27-1
Selections
Bury to beat Carlisle at 13/10 (Victor Chandler)
Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 23/20 (Bet 365)
Double on the above teams pays just under 4/1
Anytime Goalscorer yankee at 27/1
Kumarbaz, El Jugador and John Nash
In the 3 o'clock kick offs our attention turned to the lower leagues. In League One Carlisle visit 'The Shakers' Bury at Gigg Lane, with both sides looking for their first League wins of the season. Opening day saw Bury gain a good point away at promotion favourites Huddersfield, which was followed up in midweek, by a 3-1 defeat of Coventry in the Carling Cup despite losing club captain Steven Schumacher to injury in the first half. On the other hand Carlisle suffered a heavy home defeat to Notts County, with their goal scoring problems highlighted by not mounting a serious chance on the visitors goal. Therefore we fancy Bury will be too strong for the Cumbrian side, with prolific goalscorer Ryan Lowe (27 goals last season) continuing his hot streak of three goals in two games, so take advantage of the attractive 13/10 price.
We also think that Arsenal are good value in their opening Premier League fixture against Newcastle at St James Park. The Gunners are best priced at 23/20 to come away from the North East with the full three points. Both clubs have had turbulent summers, Arsenal are resigned to losing influential midfielders Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. Newcastle rarely like to be off the back pages and the rift between the club and Joey Barton rumbles on.
On the pitch Arsenal welcome back a fully fit Thomas Vermaelen to the centre of defence, its fair to say when he plays Arsenal look far more composed and concede fewer goals. Without including wantaway Nasri and Fabregas, Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger is likely to use Tomas Rosicky in a forward free role behind an attacking front three of Robin Van Persie, Theo Walcott and new signing Gervinho which we think will be too stong for the Toon defence thats lost the impressive Jose Enrique for a report £6 million to Liverpool. Newcastle will include new signings of their own in Demba Ba and Frenchman Sylvain Marveaux however we don't think they'll cope with the Gunners.
This fixture last year produced one of the greatest Premier League matches of all time in a 4-4 draw, we're not expecting quite the same spectacle today but think Arsenal should nudge it by the odd goal.
As it's the opening day of the Premier League season our goalscorer expert John Nash has made his selections and suggests putting them in an anytime goalscorer yankee
C. Adam (15-8) - Scored against today's opponents Sunderland at home for Blackpool last season and should be on penalty duty with Gerrard ruled out. it's worth noting Liverpool were awarded seven penalties at Anfield last term.
D. Drogba (6-5) - Loves the battle against Stoke, has a good record against the Potters scoring home and away against Tony Pulis' side in 2010/11.
B. Hangeland (7-1) - The big defender scored 4 of his 6 goals last season at Craven Cottage, one of which came against Aston Villa. We think he's got a good change of repeating that feat today.
W. Rooney (5-6) - Likely Man United penalty taker, also has a good record against West Brom, scored against the Midlands outfit last season.
Returns approximately 27-1
Selections
Bury to beat Carlisle at 13/10 (Victor Chandler)
Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 23/20 (Bet 365)
Double on the above teams pays just under 4/1
Anytime Goalscorer yankee at 27/1
Kumarbaz, El Jugador and John Nash
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Premier League - Top Goalscorer
We've researched the past six seasons to bring you the very best statistics and likely condenders for the 2011/12 Premier League top scorer. The following statistics are based on the top four scorers since the 2005/6 season (please note that in 2006/7 two players shared 4th place therefore in total the statistics relate to 25 players).
The minimum games a player played in and still featured in the top four was 25 (Robin Van Persie during 2010/11). The average games played by the sharp-shooters was 33.4, with this in mind we will try to steer clear from those players that are injury prone, likely to be rotated or involved in the African Cup of Nations.
The division's top scorer has come from a team that's finished in the top four and since 2002/3 95% of the top four scorers came from sides in the top 13 with 72% of the players coming from clubs that finished in the top 6. The past three season's winners of the award have been thirty-something (Berbatov, Drogba and Anelka) although the average age of the 25 players was 26, although we don't read too much into this stat we do think that age is linked to fitness and a direct correlation between age and amount of injuries/games played in. Therefore those players in their mid-twenties are likely to be less prone to injury than younger or older professionals, allowing more opportunity to find the back of the net. Realistically we're looking for a player that'll play the vast majority of games whose club will finish in the higher echelons of the Premier League.
We like the look of Darren Bent, The Aston Villa forward is best priced 12/1 to outscore his counterparts. He has finished in the top four scorers in the last two seasons and his overall record in the Premier League speaks for itself, in recent times he scored 32 in 58 games for Sunderland and has a goal every other game for his current employers Villa (9 in 18). There are some doubts as to the service Bent will receive this season following the summer departures of widemen Ashley Young and Stewart Downing. We don't think this will impinge too much on Bent's ability to find the back of the net. The inclusion of Charles N'Zogbia from Wigan will soften the blow and the duo's departure will ensure Bent will take penalty kicks. The lack of competition should mean that Bent plays a very high percentage of the Villians league matches.
Wayne Rooney top scorer with Man United winning the league at 18/1 (various)
El Jugador and John Nash
The minimum games a player played in and still featured in the top four was 25 (Robin Van Persie during 2010/11). The average games played by the sharp-shooters was 33.4, with this in mind we will try to steer clear from those players that are injury prone, likely to be rotated or involved in the African Cup of Nations.
The division's top scorer has come from a team that's finished in the top four and since 2002/3 95% of the top four scorers came from sides in the top 13 with 72% of the players coming from clubs that finished in the top 6. The past three season's winners of the award have been thirty-something (Berbatov, Drogba and Anelka) although the average age of the 25 players was 26, although we don't read too much into this stat we do think that age is linked to fitness and a direct correlation between age and amount of injuries/games played in. Therefore those players in their mid-twenties are likely to be less prone to injury than younger or older professionals, allowing more opportunity to find the back of the net. Realistically we're looking for a player that'll play the vast majority of games whose club will finish in the higher echelons of the Premier League.
We like the look of Darren Bent, The Aston Villa forward is best priced 12/1 to outscore his counterparts. He has finished in the top four scorers in the last two seasons and his overall record in the Premier League speaks for itself, in recent times he scored 32 in 58 games for Sunderland and has a goal every other game for his current employers Villa (9 in 18). There are some doubts as to the service Bent will receive this season following the summer departures of widemen Ashley Young and Stewart Downing. We don't think this will impinge too much on Bent's ability to find the back of the net. The inclusion of Charles N'Zogbia from Wigan will soften the blow and the duo's departure will ensure Bent will take penalty kicks. The lack of competition should mean that Bent plays a very high percentage of the Villians league matches.
Bent's likely opponents for the Golden Boot accolade include Robin Van Persie, Javier Hernandez, Wayne Rooney and Fernando Torres.
Doubts over Van Persie's ability to remain fit for a season mean we can't be back the Dutch forward at a best price of 10/1 with any real confidence. Hernandez will be under more pressure to produce the goods when he features this season with Man United gunning for silverware on all fronts. The Mexican is as little as 7/1 to be the divisions top scorer and we think represents poor value especially as wily manager Sir Alex Ferguson could utilise Rooney in a lone striker role. We think that backing Rooney top scorer with Man United winning the league at 18/1 could pay dividends. If United are to be successful in 11/12 we think Rooney will have to chip in with more goals, we can't see Berbatov or Hernandez replicating their hauls from 10/11. Rooney will have plenty of attacking support through Valencia, Nani and Ashley Young, he's likely to play the majority of games and will also be on penalty duty for the Old Trafford outfit.
Since joining Chelsea Torres hasn't anywhere near justified his £50 million transfer fee. Poor form and fitness meant 'El Nino' had his worst season in English football last term. Chelsea's new boss Andreas Villas Boas may not be as persistent with Torres if his performances aren't satisfactory, although a certain Russian billionaire might have an opposing opinion on the matter. Like Van Persie, doubts also surround Torres' long term fitness.
Manchester City have recruited Athletico Madrid's Argentine striker Sergio Aguero, capturing the forward for a reported £35 million. Aguero arrives at Eastlands with a huge reputation, many thought he would be a straight replacement for wantaway countryman Carlos Tevez although he still remains at the Manchester club. We're not sure how quickly Aguero will adapt to the Premiership, when he'll be fully fit and how boss Mancini will rotate his squad with the prospect of a lengthy spell in Europe likely. These are some of the reasons we won't be backing 'Kun' Aguero at a best price of 16/1. It's worth noting that no foreign player has top scored in their first season in England's top flight.
Since joining Chelsea Torres hasn't anywhere near justified his £50 million transfer fee. Poor form and fitness meant 'El Nino' had his worst season in English football last term. Chelsea's new boss Andreas Villas Boas may not be as persistent with Torres if his performances aren't satisfactory, although a certain Russian billionaire might have an opposing opinion on the matter. Like Van Persie, doubts also surround Torres' long term fitness.
Manchester City have recruited Athletico Madrid's Argentine striker Sergio Aguero, capturing the forward for a reported £35 million. Aguero arrives at Eastlands with a huge reputation, many thought he would be a straight replacement for wantaway countryman Carlos Tevez although he still remains at the Manchester club. We're not sure how quickly Aguero will adapt to the Premiership, when he'll be fully fit and how boss Mancini will rotate his squad with the prospect of a lengthy spell in Europe likely. These are some of the reasons we won't be backing 'Kun' Aguero at a best price of 16/1. It's worth noting that no foreign player has top scored in their first season in England's top flight.
Contributor Chris Powell makes the Racing Posts Big Kick Off 11/12 with his 12/1 Darren Bent selection
Bent is an attractive 9/2 to finish as the top English scorer which also looks a decent price. While Daniel Sturridge remains at Chelsea we don't think he's a serious contender. Cases can be made for Andy Carroll and and Tottenham's Jermain Defoe although we think Tooting born Bent will outscore each of these. In the past four seasons Bent has scored 21 more than ex-team mate Defoe and 20 more than Andy Carroll (with one of Carroll's season's in the Championship). Seemingly Bent's main rival for the crown is Wayne Rooney, we are predicting very good seasons for both the England frontmen.
Selection
Darren Bent to finish top scorer at 12/1 (various)
Darren Bent to finish top English scorer at 9/2 (Paddy Power)Wayne Rooney top scorer with Man United winning the league at 18/1 (various)
El Jugador and John Nash
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Holy Trinity to come good at US PGA
The fourth and final Golf Major of the year tees off on Thursday with the best in the world all competing for the last big honour of 2011 - it is off to John’s Creek, Georgia for the 2011 USPGA Championship. This will be a huge challenge for the players again, it will offer something different from the soft conditions at the US Open & the wind & rainy links of Royal St George’s for the British Open. Rory Mcilroy will once again be all the rage but he has failed to build on his runaway US Open win & odds on offer of around 10-1 look a little too skinny. Tiger Woods is back in the Major fold & his return to action last week raised more questions than answers but at odds of 25-1 we wouldn't put anyone off anyone having a small saver on a man who could yet come back to his dominant best. His charge in the final round of the Masters this year was vintage Tiger & it remains highly likely that he will be winning tournaments including Majors in the future.
With the recent trend of new winners on tour, do not be surprised to see the incredibly talented Rickie Fowler finally break out & win an event sooner rather than later. His game has reached new heights of late & showed he had the mettle to compete in a Major with his performance in the Open, providing an excellent display in conditions largely alien to him. This course should suit his game a lot more & after finishing tied for second last week in the Bridgestone invitational he is in superb form, his game has matured markedly over the past six months & he's available at 33-1 with Stan James.
Our next tip is Webb Simpson, an ultra consistent performer in 2011 who has had six top ten finishes in eighteen events including two runners up spots only missing out on a victory in a play off in New Orleans due to an incredibly unfortunate incident where the ball moved as he grounded his putter over a putt. Every facet of his game looks in great shape right now & his current standing of ninth in the Fedex cup standings (above the likes of Matt Kuchar & always in contention Jason Day) shows the form he's in. At 90-1 he looks a great value each way bet.
With the recent trend of new winners on tour, do not be surprised to see the incredibly talented Rickie Fowler finally break out & win an event sooner rather than later. His game has reached new heights of late & showed he had the mettle to compete in a Major with his performance in the Open, providing an excellent display in conditions largely alien to him. This course should suit his game a lot more & after finishing tied for second last week in the Bridgestone invitational he is in superb form, his game has matured markedly over the past six months & he's available at 33-1 with Stan James.
Our next tip is Webb Simpson, an ultra consistent performer in 2011 who has had six top ten finishes in eighteen events including two runners up spots only missing out on a victory in a play off in New Orleans due to an incredibly unfortunate incident where the ball moved as he grounded his putter over a putt. Every facet of his game looks in great shape right now & his current standing of ninth in the Fedex cup standings (above the likes of Matt Kuchar & always in contention Jason Day) shows the form he's in. At 90-1 he looks a great value each way bet.
Finally at a huge price we’re going for another American in Rickie Fowler’s housemate and 2nd season rookie Cameron Tringale. Tringale finished just 191st in last year’s FedEx cup standings but retained his tour card through Q-School & has stepped up in his performances this year with 12 top 25 finishes . Those top 25’s include 4 top 10 placings & 3 of those have come in July including his best finish, tying for 4th & one shot outside of a playoff spot in the Greenbrier Classic. Tringale will feel right at home at the course having competed for Georgia Tech whilst at college & should get great support from the enthusiastic American galleries. Momentum is an important factor & whilst he needs to improve markedly on what he has done before his odds reflect this & is worth backing to finish in the top 10 at odds of 40/1 with a small each way bet in the outright market with Betfred at 300/1.
All three of our golfers should receive outstanding support & we fancy them to break the hold the rest of the World have had on the Majors since Phil Mickelson won for the good old USA back at the beginning of 2010 with his 3rd Masters win. All 3 are regular attendees of the PGA Tour’s bible study group & will be praying, along with us, that the big man is on their side.
Selections:
Rickie Fowler at 33/1 with Stan James
Webb Simpson each way at 90/1 (several firms)
Cameron Tringale to finish in top 10 at 20/1 (general) & each way outright at 300/1 with Sky Bet
Monday, 8 August 2011
Premier League Handicap Winners
It's official, we've scientifically worked out the winners of this year's Premier League handicap market (or at least narrowed it down to the likely contenders!). The handicap market works by giving teams a headstart in terms of the points they receive depending on the perceived strength of the team - thus Manchester United receive 0 points as favourites but Swansea receive a 46 point headstart as outsiders. This should mean that at the end of the season that all the teams finish with similar points totals making it a difficult market to pick a winner but also meaning we are rewarded with odds of 16/1 for each contender making it hugely tempting - punters don't mind waiting a full season to pick up on this market as a small outlay can offer significant returns. We've done the hard work so you don't have to, our panel of experts have picked their finishing positions for each team and we've worked out the average. We've then looked at the average points a team would need to acquire to finish in the predicted position for each of the last 10 and 5 years. When we add together the average points for finishing in a position with the handicap mark that PaddyPower are allocating each team we can identify the likeliest contenders - see below:
It seems that there 5 teams more likely than the others to get upwards of 80 points once the handicap advantage is added in and these are: Man Utd, Man City, Aston Villa, Stoke & West Brom.
West Brom won the handicap market last year after front runners Blackpool and then Bolton faltered at the season's end and they have a great chance again this year especially if they can wrap up the signing of the touted around Shane Long from Reading. It is key that they have cover for the outstanding Peter Odemwingie, as while there are potential scorers from midfield in Chris Brunt & returning Zoltan Gera plus the underrated Paul Scharner, the other options in attack do not breed confidence with Roman Bednar and Ishmael Miller operating in a league slightly too high for their limited abilities. West Brom have one of the few truly elite managers in the league in Roy Hodgson (along with Ferguson, Wenger & Dalglish) and he will be keen to push further up the league this season being a keen advocate of European competition.
The last 5 years have seen lower winning points averages than has traditionally been the case and has meant that teams at the top of the handicap have had little chance of winning on the market. There is a suggestion that our predicted champions Man Utd could get a much bigger points total than last season's paltry 80 points (which still put them 9 points clear of the rest). The key to United getting a large points total will lie in their ability to ensure they take maximum points off of teams in the bottom half of the table when they play away from home, too often last year they played with a much slower tempo than whilst at home. The retirement of Paul Scholes (he who can never be criticised!) will inevitably help speed up their play but much remains on whether Ferguson continues with his inexplicable behaviour in picking the hugely limited Michael Carrick. The second half of Sunday's Community Shield game offered the perfect example of why United are a much more dangerous side without him in, The Guardian's Richard Williams noted he "provided the most insubstantial of midfield shields while contributing nothing to the attack" . If Wesley Sneijder is bought he may be the catalyst in meaning a reduced role for Carrick & an extra dynamism for the side meaning a huge points haul and the win that really matters, at 16/1 on the handicap market!
Selections:
West Brom each way to win handicap market (+38 points) at 16/1 with PaddyPower
Manchester United to win handicap market (no start) at 16/1 with PaddyPower
Premier League Finishing Predictions
It has been said that the wisdom of crowds leads to better decisions & predictions than an individual could come to, we've taken this on board & consulted our 5 top pundits on where they believe each Premier League team will finish this season in order to inform you of the best bets available. Below is a table showing our experts' predictions and what that means as an average. We had broad consensus around the winners & it seems that a 'Big 6' may be developing as all of us picked the same teams to finish inside the European qualifying positions.
We ended up with one tie with us unable to split Aston Villa & Everton however courtesy of more of us placing Villa 7th (with just one pundit believing they'll have an aberration of a season & finish 12th!) we've allocated them the higher position.
It seems that Manchester United will still be ruling the English football kingdom with the crown princes of Dubai waiting in the wings unable to depose of their elder brother for another year at least. It looks like big spending Liverpool & the thrifty Arsenal will be fighting it out for the all important final Champions League spot, if Arsenal were to miss out surely it would be the end of an era, with Wenger leaving - maybe to pick up the biggest job in English football once Mr Capello leaves his post at the end of another unsuccessful Championship........?
All of our pundits believe Norwich are to go straight back down & it's understandable to see why, they appear to have bought Championship (at best) quality players, seemingly in preparation of next season's promotion push - they may be one of the clubs where promotion has 'come one year to soon'. In fact all three of this season's promoted clubs look in trouble with Swansea having a lack of quality in general & poor squad options, QPR's continuing ownership squabbles have effectively paralysed them in terms of being able to make signings - a few astute acquisitions along with keeping key players could have meant a good first season in the top flight.
From these predictions we're going to look at the likely points needed to achieve each place and then bring our best handicap market bets along with some of our best selections from the season markets over the next few nights before the season gets underway in earnest. As ever Good Luck, Good Punting.
Join our fantasy football leagues at www.metro.co.uk/fantasyfootball
We have a free private league with Pin Number: 22166
& a £5 prize money league with Pin Number: 22201
Saturday, 6 August 2011
City to join the Big Boys Society
The traditional curtain raiser to the English top flight football season takes place on Sunday with the two Manchester giants clashing in the Community Shield, City as FA Cup holders and United as Champions, for a record 19th time.
Many fans will be expecting this to be hotly contested even though it technically is a friendly however United have stated they will be treating the game as a part of their pre-season like every other game and their actions so far suggest this. The team only arrived back from their successful US tour at the beginning of the week and many top players were involved in Paul Scholes testimonial versus Eric Cantona's relaunched New York Cosmos. City however have been back in the country for longer and are likely to want to set down a marker for the coming season, the big disappointment for them is that the talismanic Carlos Tevez won't be involved. Tevez has been without doubt the Premier League's outstanding performer ever since Cristiano Ronaldo left for Spain and if City can retain his services for this season they have a genuine chance of reaching the domestic summit. They have had the most exciting signing of the summer so far in Sergio 'Kun' Aguero and that can only possibly be outdone if the protracted Sneijder transfer goes through, with seemingly both Manchester clubs in the running now.
Last season saw three meetings between the teams with a win each and a draw, all were tight affairs and there is little to suggest that over one game that United should be near even money favourites. United are likely to have their first choice defence deployed tomorrow as they try to get David de Gea settled into English football but Wayne Rooney may not be involved after playing 60 minutes on Friday. City should be at full strength and with the outstanding Vincent Kompany in central defence along with arguably the league's best keeper and defensive midfielder in Hart and de Jong respectively we think that City can keep the United attackers at bay. City have enough going forwards even without Tevez to suggest they'll have chances and de Gea will almost certainly be nervous stepping out at Wembley. The value definitely lies with City at a best price of 11/5 and we think backing 1-0 at 17/2 (Skybet), 2-0 at a big 18/1 and 3-0 at a massive 55/1 with Coral will see you off to a great start to the season.
Selections:
Man City to win in 90 minutes at 11/5 (various)
Man City to win 1-0 at 17/2 with Skybet
Man City to win 2-0 at 18/1 with Coral
Man City to win 3-0 at 55/1 with Coral
Many fans will be expecting this to be hotly contested even though it technically is a friendly however United have stated they will be treating the game as a part of their pre-season like every other game and their actions so far suggest this. The team only arrived back from their successful US tour at the beginning of the week and many top players were involved in Paul Scholes testimonial versus Eric Cantona's relaunched New York Cosmos. City however have been back in the country for longer and are likely to want to set down a marker for the coming season, the big disappointment for them is that the talismanic Carlos Tevez won't be involved. Tevez has been without doubt the Premier League's outstanding performer ever since Cristiano Ronaldo left for Spain and if City can retain his services for this season they have a genuine chance of reaching the domestic summit. They have had the most exciting signing of the summer so far in Sergio 'Kun' Aguero and that can only possibly be outdone if the protracted Sneijder transfer goes through, with seemingly both Manchester clubs in the running now.
Last season saw three meetings between the teams with a win each and a draw, all were tight affairs and there is little to suggest that over one game that United should be near even money favourites. United are likely to have their first choice defence deployed tomorrow as they try to get David de Gea settled into English football but Wayne Rooney may not be involved after playing 60 minutes on Friday. City should be at full strength and with the outstanding Vincent Kompany in central defence along with arguably the league's best keeper and defensive midfielder in Hart and de Jong respectively we think that City can keep the United attackers at bay. City have enough going forwards even without Tevez to suggest they'll have chances and de Gea will almost certainly be nervous stepping out at Wembley. The value definitely lies with City at a best price of 11/5 and we think backing 1-0 at 17/2 (Skybet), 2-0 at a big 18/1 and 3-0 at a massive 55/1 with Coral will see you off to a great start to the season.
Selections:
Man City to win in 90 minutes at 11/5 (various)
Man City to win 1-0 at 17/2 with Skybet
Man City to win 2-0 at 18/1 with Coral
Man City to win 3-0 at 55/1 with Coral
Friday, 5 August 2011
Future looking 'Bright' for Poyet's men
We can only thank the under 21’s and women who attempted to fill the void that is the football off season, but fear not, the football league season is upon us. The KC Stadium is the setting for the opening fixture where the Tigers of Hull host Ian Holloways relegated Blackpool.
Selections
Swindon to beat Crewe Alexandra 21/20 and Alan Connell first scorer at 5/1
Treble on the above teams pays 6/1+
Many will dispute that the infancy of the season makes it hard to make selections with confidence, however with a degree of assurance we’ve trawled through the offerings and made our top choices.
We think that Brighton will be too strong for Doncaster; Gus Poyet’s side in effect finished 4 league placings behind their opponents as they won League 1 amassing an impressive 95 points. Brighton’s Falmer Stadium finally hosts a competitive match some nine years after they were granted planning permission, we’re not ones to agree that a team takes time to settle into a new stadium and tend to be of the opinion that the Seagulls will want to put on a show for their fans. Poyet and Brighton’s ambitious owners have strengthened the squad with a plethora of signings including 2010/11’s League 1 top scorer Craig Mackail-Smith from Peterborough, Watford’s exciting winger Will Buckley along with loanee Kazenga Lua Lua and Dutch import Roland Bergkamp. Doncaster shipped 50 league goals away from home last term, defender Richard Naylor has joined from Leeds to add some much needed experience however we still this they look vulnerable. Brighton are available at 10/11 to win this one.
In League 1 Colchester visit Deepdale where Phil Brown’s Preston will be looking for 3 points at the first time of asking as they attempt to bounce straight back up to the Championship. Phil Brown has lost a variety of his better players including Irish international Sean St Ledger, Billy Jones to West Brom and Scottish Veteran Callum Davidson and replaced the departed player with just two players, one of which is Clarke Carlisle on loan from Burnley who will fill the void of St Ledger. Colchester have also been fairly quiet in the transfer market bringing in three players, after losing seven. Last season Colchester finished 10th in League 1 however the vast majority of their points came at home, in their 13 games away from the Weston Homes Community Stadium in the second half of the season they recorded 1 victory (5 points from a possible 39). We think that Brown will have his players right up for this one, we’re backing a Preston victory.
Swindon play Crewe Alexandra in League 2 and are best priced at 21/20, the club are at the beginning at a new era under Paulo Di Canio, Crewe have lost top scorer Clayton Donaldson to Brentford and promising youngsters John Brayford and James Bailey have been sold to Derby. Only Alan Martin has joined the Gresty Road outfit from Ayr. Crewe would do well to come away from The County Ground with any points. The Robins’ new six-figure signing Alan Connell will want to impress the home crowd and we fancy him to open the scoring.
Brighton to beat Doncaster at 10/11
Preston to beat Colchester 5/6Swindon to beat Crewe Alexandra 21/20 and Alan Connell first scorer at 5/1
Treble on the above teams pays 6/1+
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Hammer Time!
The second tier of the English football pyramid looks like it could be the best for years with well supported teams full of quality players plus a competitive fight to avoid relegation in store.
Lets get started with the team that we think have the potential to storm the league, it isn't original but we think that West Ham have retained enough quality and added to that with some fantastic signings that will enable them to outplay most teams.
'Big Sam' Allardyce may not be the most popular manager in the country but he has an undoubted quality and has improved every team he has been at, he is forward thinking and will get West Ham to play football to their strengths. Allardyce is clearly popular with players as evidenced by him being able to sign ex-players Kevin Nolan, Matt Taylor, Abdoulaye Faye & Joey O'Brien, all are capable of operating well at this level but Kevin Nolan is arguably the division's standout player and it shows the belief there is that the Hammers can come straight back up with him going down a division whilst in his prime. Carlton Cole looks like he'll stay & no one has moved for the excellent Scott Parker yet, Piquionne will get goals in this league and the loss of last year's captain Matthew Upson is little loss at all with him being one of the most immobile players in professional football, Faye is an improvement especially in this physical league. Leicester also have a top manager and have spent money but can't quite match the quality at West Ham's disposal, they have many new players & could take time to gel - it makes no sense why they are joint favourites and West Ham are crying out to be backed at 5/1 with William Hill, at that excellent price you can back each way (top 3) and still make a profit - it really is Like Buying Money!
We very much feel that West Ham have been underestimated by the bookies and have the potential to get over 100 points which would make them tough to beat in the handicap market, with some firms they get +1 and at 18/1 should certainly see us paid out with an each way bet. The other teams aren't getting enough of a headstart, we could have fancied Derby with another 10 points and if Peterbrough could have retained the dangerous Craig Mackail-Smith they could have challenged for the handicap win.
Its difficult to overestimate our confidence in West Ham and we fancy Kevin Nolan to put in a claim for the league's top scorer at 25/1. He managed more league goals than Wayne Rooney last year for a mediocre Newcastle side and 17 last time in the Championship, he's likely to be given penalty duties and will score from corners and set piece plays as well as 2-3 trademark blasts from ouside the box, he'll thrive as captain and should get up to support the strikers benefitting from Carlton Cole knockdowns and rebounds when he inevitably hits the woodwork! Our other sneaky pick is for the 80/1 Peter Whittingham who should get plenty of set piece opportunities for Cardiff, he was linked with a move away in the summer but manager Malky Mackay has stated he is central to his plans. Whittingham will need to put away plenty of penalties & freekicks but if he adds to those with a few from open play he might be pushing over 20 for the season which will give him a chance.
At the wrong end of the table Doncaster look as though they'll struggle to stay up. They conceded a league 2nd worst 81 goals last year & haven't done enough in the summer to suggest they'll stem that, they've performed creditably to stay in the league for 3 seasons but last year was a real battle & we think they'll go back to their natural home in League 1 - they can be backed at 9/4 with Victor Chandler whilst being 13/8 joint favs for relegation with William Hill.
Selections:
Winner - West Ham at 5/1 with William Hill (big punters back each way for a virtually guaranteed payday!)
Handicap winner - West Ham with +1 each way at 18/1
Top goalscorer - Kevin Nolan each way at 25/1 & Peter Whittingham (Cardiff) each way at 80/1
Relegation - Doncaster Rovers at 9/4 with Victor Chandler
Join in our fantasy football league at fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk
Our free private league is number: 22166
£5 entry private league is number: 22201
Lets get started with the team that we think have the potential to storm the league, it isn't original but we think that West Ham have retained enough quality and added to that with some fantastic signings that will enable them to outplay most teams.
'Big Sam' Allardyce may not be the most popular manager in the country but he has an undoubted quality and has improved every team he has been at, he is forward thinking and will get West Ham to play football to their strengths. Allardyce is clearly popular with players as evidenced by him being able to sign ex-players Kevin Nolan, Matt Taylor, Abdoulaye Faye & Joey O'Brien, all are capable of operating well at this level but Kevin Nolan is arguably the division's standout player and it shows the belief there is that the Hammers can come straight back up with him going down a division whilst in his prime. Carlton Cole looks like he'll stay & no one has moved for the excellent Scott Parker yet, Piquionne will get goals in this league and the loss of last year's captain Matthew Upson is little loss at all with him being one of the most immobile players in professional football, Faye is an improvement especially in this physical league. Leicester also have a top manager and have spent money but can't quite match the quality at West Ham's disposal, they have many new players & could take time to gel - it makes no sense why they are joint favourites and West Ham are crying out to be backed at 5/1 with William Hill, at that excellent price you can back each way (top 3) and still make a profit - it really is Like Buying Money!
We very much feel that West Ham have been underestimated by the bookies and have the potential to get over 100 points which would make them tough to beat in the handicap market, with some firms they get +1 and at 18/1 should certainly see us paid out with an each way bet. The other teams aren't getting enough of a headstart, we could have fancied Derby with another 10 points and if Peterbrough could have retained the dangerous Craig Mackail-Smith they could have challenged for the handicap win.
Its difficult to overestimate our confidence in West Ham and we fancy Kevin Nolan to put in a claim for the league's top scorer at 25/1. He managed more league goals than Wayne Rooney last year for a mediocre Newcastle side and 17 last time in the Championship, he's likely to be given penalty duties and will score from corners and set piece plays as well as 2-3 trademark blasts from ouside the box, he'll thrive as captain and should get up to support the strikers benefitting from Carlton Cole knockdowns and rebounds when he inevitably hits the woodwork! Our other sneaky pick is for the 80/1 Peter Whittingham who should get plenty of set piece opportunities for Cardiff, he was linked with a move away in the summer but manager Malky Mackay has stated he is central to his plans. Whittingham will need to put away plenty of penalties & freekicks but if he adds to those with a few from open play he might be pushing over 20 for the season which will give him a chance.
At the wrong end of the table Doncaster look as though they'll struggle to stay up. They conceded a league 2nd worst 81 goals last year & haven't done enough in the summer to suggest they'll stem that, they've performed creditably to stay in the league for 3 seasons but last year was a real battle & we think they'll go back to their natural home in League 1 - they can be backed at 9/4 with Victor Chandler whilst being 13/8 joint favs for relegation with William Hill.
Selections:
Winner - West Ham at 5/1 with William Hill (big punters back each way for a virtually guaranteed payday!)
Handicap winner - West Ham with +1 each way at 18/1
Top goalscorer - Kevin Nolan each way at 25/1 & Peter Whittingham (Cardiff) each way at 80/1
Relegation - Doncaster Rovers at 9/4 with Victor Chandler
Join in our fantasy football league at fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk
Our free private league is number: 22166
£5 entry private league is number: 22201
Wednesday, 3 August 2011
League 1 Season Preview
League 1 looks like being the most fiercely competitive of all the English divisions with a whole host of teams that have the potential to challenge but no standout favourites.
The 3 teams at the top of the betting are 3 of the bigger names in the league in Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday & Preston and all look capable of pushing for automatic promotion places. Huddersfield look solid in midfield but are too reliant on star striker Jordan Rhodes and need other players to step up in support, that could happen with Lee Novak starting to become a semi-regular scorer.
Wednesday & Preston have the two highest profile managers in the league in Gary Megson & Phil Brown respectively but being high profile doesn't always equal being successful. Megson should get Sheffield Wednesday well organised and the signing of David Prutton on a free transfer looks particularly astute, they shouldn't lose a lot but may draw just a few too many games to win the league.
Preston North End shouldn't struggle for goals with the dependable, if a little immobile, Neil Mellor likely to chip in with 15+ and the influential Iain Hume will be able to thrive at this level. However they were very poor last year and Phil Brown will need to get confidence built back up in this set of players, we can see them starting slowly and coming with a late challenge that may be a little too late.
Charlton Athletic sit behind the others as 4th favourites at 9/1 but they have a plethora of attacking options with 3 of their players prominent in the top scorer market led by one of the league's best players Bradley Wright-Phillips. Johnnie Jackson chipped in with 12 goals from midfield last year & they have great creativity throughout the side. Manager Chris Powell had a good start to his tenure before the club dropped away in customary style at the season's close, he's now had some time in charge and been able to get players in to suit a style he wants to play. Charlton need to improve at the back and Powell needs to impart his own experience as a player, he is a club legend & the fans will turn out in numbers & give full support from the start of the season - the support can be used to drive the team on. Danny Hollands is a great signing from Bournemouth in the centre of the park & should help make up for the loss of Jose Semedo to Sheffield Wednesday.
The top scorer market looks competitive & the already mentioned Wright-Phillips, Hume & Rhodes should get their fair share of goals but we think a couple of players at bigger prices will go well. Dean Bowditch managed 15 goals in the league last year for a poor Yeovil side and looks a tasty price at 40/1 with Coral now that he has joined the ambitious MK Dons who should push for a playoff place. Sheffield United signed Chris Porter from Derby and if he can rediscover the form he had at Oldham & Motherwell before joining the Rams, where he was sporadically used, he should be able to put a challenge in for the golden boot, Blue Square offer 25/1.
Contributor Kumarbaz makes the Racing Post Big Kick Off 11/12 with his 40/1 Dean Bowditch selection
The other market looking like there could be some value is the season handicap, the league looks tight with no team likely to be able to runaway with it so a team receiving a fair few points is likely to be in the reckoning. Notts County were fancied as challengers last year but ended up in 19th place, they need Lee Hughes to play more games but if he does the 23 points start they receive with Skybet could be generous, they are only getting 18 points with some other firms. Manager Martin Allen only joined in April & could be the man to get County going the right way.
Selections:
Outright winner - Charlton Athletic at 9/1 with William Hill
Top goalscorer - Dean Bowditch (MK Dons) each way at 40/1 with Coral
Top goalscorer - Chris Porter (Sheffield United) at 25/1
Handicap market - Notts County with +23 at 18/1 with Skybet
Join in our fantasy football league at fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk
Our free private league is number: 22166
£5 entry private league is number: 22201
The 3 teams at the top of the betting are 3 of the bigger names in the league in Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday & Preston and all look capable of pushing for automatic promotion places. Huddersfield look solid in midfield but are too reliant on star striker Jordan Rhodes and need other players to step up in support, that could happen with Lee Novak starting to become a semi-regular scorer.
Wednesday & Preston have the two highest profile managers in the league in Gary Megson & Phil Brown respectively but being high profile doesn't always equal being successful. Megson should get Sheffield Wednesday well organised and the signing of David Prutton on a free transfer looks particularly astute, they shouldn't lose a lot but may draw just a few too many games to win the league.
Preston North End shouldn't struggle for goals with the dependable, if a little immobile, Neil Mellor likely to chip in with 15+ and the influential Iain Hume will be able to thrive at this level. However they were very poor last year and Phil Brown will need to get confidence built back up in this set of players, we can see them starting slowly and coming with a late challenge that may be a little too late.
Charlton Athletic sit behind the others as 4th favourites at 9/1 but they have a plethora of attacking options with 3 of their players prominent in the top scorer market led by one of the league's best players Bradley Wright-Phillips. Johnnie Jackson chipped in with 12 goals from midfield last year & they have great creativity throughout the side. Manager Chris Powell had a good start to his tenure before the club dropped away in customary style at the season's close, he's now had some time in charge and been able to get players in to suit a style he wants to play. Charlton need to improve at the back and Powell needs to impart his own experience as a player, he is a club legend & the fans will turn out in numbers & give full support from the start of the season - the support can be used to drive the team on. Danny Hollands is a great signing from Bournemouth in the centre of the park & should help make up for the loss of Jose Semedo to Sheffield Wednesday.
The top scorer market looks competitive & the already mentioned Wright-Phillips, Hume & Rhodes should get their fair share of goals but we think a couple of players at bigger prices will go well. Dean Bowditch managed 15 goals in the league last year for a poor Yeovil side and looks a tasty price at 40/1 with Coral now that he has joined the ambitious MK Dons who should push for a playoff place. Sheffield United signed Chris Porter from Derby and if he can rediscover the form he had at Oldham & Motherwell before joining the Rams, where he was sporadically used, he should be able to put a challenge in for the golden boot, Blue Square offer 25/1.
Contributor Kumarbaz makes the Racing Post Big Kick Off 11/12 with his 40/1 Dean Bowditch selection
The other market looking like there could be some value is the season handicap, the league looks tight with no team likely to be able to runaway with it so a team receiving a fair few points is likely to be in the reckoning. Notts County were fancied as challengers last year but ended up in 19th place, they need Lee Hughes to play more games but if he does the 23 points start they receive with Skybet could be generous, they are only getting 18 points with some other firms. Manager Martin Allen only joined in April & could be the man to get County going the right way.
Selections:
Outright winner - Charlton Athletic at 9/1 with William Hill
Top goalscorer - Dean Bowditch (MK Dons) each way at 40/1 with Coral
Top goalscorer - Chris Porter (Sheffield United) at 25/1
Handicap market - Notts County with +23 at 18/1 with Skybet
Join in our fantasy football league at fantasyfootball.metro.co.uk
Our free private league is number: 22166
£5 entry private league is number: 22201
Tuesday, 2 August 2011
League 2 Season Preview
The English football season gets underway this weekend and the bottom two tiers look as competitive as ever, we're looking to sort the wheat from the chaff in terms of the best value bets available. We discuss League 2 today with League 1 to follow tomorrow.
There are several imponderables in League 2 with the usual high turnover of players at many clubs and the big spending, runaway winners of the Conference, Crawley moving up to challenge. Crawley were talked of as the Man City of non-league football and often referred to as a League 1 team in terms of quality already, that theory will be put to the test and at a biggest price of 3/1 offer little value.
Swindon Town have come into the division the other way by being relegated in a miserable season last year, they've responded by hiring the controversial Paulo Di Canio in his 1st managerial role. The Swindon fans seem to be quietly optimistic with the teams progress so far in pre-season and it is highly likely that Di Canio will want them to play a more attacking brand of football this year. This likely attacking attitude means that there is a chance for one of their new signings, Alan Connell to shine. Connell has joined from Conference side Grimsby where he managed 25 league goals even though they only managed 11th place following a poor 2nd half of the season, he is likely to take free kicks and is slightly overpriced at 18/1 in the top scorer market.
We've already discussed that Crawley Town are a bit on the skinny side for the league but there is a chance that they could be too strong for the rest however with 4 places available for promotion (one through the playoffs) there is a good alternative in the to be promoted market. We fancy Oxford to improve over last year's showing where they played some attractive football but leaked too many goals at the other end but have now added some steel at the back with the classy veteran Michael Duberry plus the attacking left back Liam Davis joining, they have kept 6 clean sheets and remain unbeaten in their 9 pre-season matches. William Hill are the only bookies brave enough to go 3/1 on Oxford for promotion & we'll take that as Oxford can get off to a great start.
Selections
To be promoted - Oxford at 3/1 with William Hill
Top Goalscorer - Alan Connell (Swindon Town) each way at 18/1 with Blue Square (1/4 odds top 4 places)
There are several imponderables in League 2 with the usual high turnover of players at many clubs and the big spending, runaway winners of the Conference, Crawley moving up to challenge. Crawley were talked of as the Man City of non-league football and often referred to as a League 1 team in terms of quality already, that theory will be put to the test and at a biggest price of 3/1 offer little value.
Swindon Town have come into the division the other way by being relegated in a miserable season last year, they've responded by hiring the controversial Paulo Di Canio in his 1st managerial role. The Swindon fans seem to be quietly optimistic with the teams progress so far in pre-season and it is highly likely that Di Canio will want them to play a more attacking brand of football this year. This likely attacking attitude means that there is a chance for one of their new signings, Alan Connell to shine. Connell has joined from Conference side Grimsby where he managed 25 league goals even though they only managed 11th place following a poor 2nd half of the season, he is likely to take free kicks and is slightly overpriced at 18/1 in the top scorer market.
We've already discussed that Crawley Town are a bit on the skinny side for the league but there is a chance that they could be too strong for the rest however with 4 places available for promotion (one through the playoffs) there is a good alternative in the to be promoted market. We fancy Oxford to improve over last year's showing where they played some attractive football but leaked too many goals at the other end but have now added some steel at the back with the classy veteran Michael Duberry plus the attacking left back Liam Davis joining, they have kept 6 clean sheets and remain unbeaten in their 9 pre-season matches. William Hill are the only bookies brave enough to go 3/1 on Oxford for promotion & we'll take that as Oxford can get off to a great start.
Selections
To be promoted - Oxford at 3/1 with William Hill
Top Goalscorer - Alan Connell (Swindon Town) each way at 18/1 with Blue Square (1/4 odds top 4 places)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)