More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

Talented Tigers can savage Toothless Tractor Boys

We haven't been inspired by the football betting in recent weeks & plenty of teams across the divisions have lacked consistency making betting a dangerous proposition. We've gone for one Championship game this Saturday as we look for a nice odds against win.

Ipswich Town vs Hull City

In the Championship promotion chasing Hull travel down to Ipswich to take on Mick McCarthy's Tractor Boys who have shut down opposing teams' attackers down impressively since the turn of the year with just 7 goals conceded in their last 15 games & clean sheets in their last 5. It won't be easy for Steve Bruce's men but this is the kind of game that they will feel they'll need to win if they are to close out automatic promotion.

(George Boyd - a man without conviction...?)

Ipswich have enjoyed a real turnaround since dismissing Paul Jewell & bringing in proven Championship manager Mick McCarthy (we've always felt McCarthy lacks the ability to attract true Premier League quality players to his sides). McCarthy has concentrated on ensuring Ipswich have a sound base to build on & even though it has come at a cost to their goal creation & scoring (lowest goal tally in Championship with just 40 in 41) it has proven to be a successful tactic. Ipswich have been a little lucky in their last two games though with Derby hitting the woodwork & missing a penalty last time & Millwall only denied by the woodwork as well. Much of their run of good defensive performances in 2013 came with West Ham loanee Stephen Henderson in goal but he's now left & Scott Loach is back between the posts. Loach has played very well in these last 3 games since Henderson returned to the Hammers but it's unlikely he's at the level of Henderson overall & it is a downgrade at the no.1 position. At the attacking end of the pitch Ipswich are again weakened by a loanee's time coming to an end with David McGoldrick now unavailable & that means they look a little toothless at the business end of the pitch.

Hull are no defensive slouches themselves with only 46 goals finding their net even though they've had a couple of aberrations since January when conceding 4 to Bolton & Crystal Palace. In goal for the Tigers is Fulham loanee David Stockdale who was on loan at Ipswich last season & he was in decent nick as Hull overcame woefully out of form Middlesbrough last Saturday & it looks likely he won't be caused too much trouble as Ipswich employ their somewhat reductive approach. Hull do occasionally look like they struggle to break teams down though & it was no surprise to see them pick up attacker George Boyd on loan in February with Sone Aluko ruled out for some time with injury. Boyd offers inventive play & an eye for goal & he's got 4 in 8 to repay the faith shown in him so far & he along with Hull's Egyptian contingent & creative lynchpin Robert Koren need to take the game to Ipswich here. Hull looked flat last weekend after defeat to promotion rivals Watford in midweek but they have had a week to prepare for this & we expect to see them fired up & they can take the away victory at odds of 13/8 with 888sport. We also like the enhanced odds available by backing Hull to win without conceding & that's on offer at 13/4 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Hull City to beat Ipswich Town at 13/8 (888sport)
Hull City to win to nil at 13/4 (Ladbrokes)

Grand National 2013 - Get ready to bow for Balthazar King

The Grand National is THE annual betting event & it's always a great spectacle, we're taking a look at this year's renewal & seeing which horses really stand out from a value perspective. We love a bit of flat racing too & that's starting to get underway with the first two Classics of the season the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas just a month away & we should be previewing that as well - keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter along with our other 1600+ followers @LikeBuyingMoney


Aintree 4.15 Saturday - The Grand National

(Balthazar King (winning at Cheltenham) knows how to jump unconventional fences & loves a stamina test - ideal for the Grand National)

You'll hear the same things every year about the National with plenty saying it's a lottery & anything could win but although we've seen three winners at 33/1 or bigger in the last 6 years the overall trend is that horses near the top of the market tend to go well & in general you want a horse aged between 9 & 10 although the odd 12 year old can win.

The horse that really interests us here is Balthazar King - a horse that hasn't competed at any distances less than 2m7f for the past three years & has undertaken some big time stamina tests over unusual obstacles in three of his last four runs when taking part in 3m7f chases on Cheltenham's cross country course. Of course the slopes & fences on that cross country course aren't Grand National fences but they do show Balthazar King can cope with a jumping challenge & is improving (fell on his first try over them but finished 1st & then 2nd) the next two times along with a win on Cheltenham's standard course in that four race sequence too.

Aintree is a far flatter track than Cheltenham & quite a different test but this race requires stamina & Balthazar King has that in abundance, with 10 stone 12 pounds on his back in this race compared to 11-8 last time this will feel easy in comparison for the 9 year old gelding, he goes well fresh too which eases any worries about 141 days off the track. The weights for the race were specially framed some time ago & we reckon the handicapper would like Balthazar King to carry a little more weight if he could reassess the field today, at odds of 20/1 Balthazar King looks a great value bet.

(Cappa Bleu - high class & very rarely out of the frame)

We were keen on the chances of Cappa Bleu last year & Evan Williams' horse is surely in with a top chance again this time especially when you see that Seabass is ahead of him in the market but only finished one place ahead last time & is now giving Cappa Bleu 9 pounds of weight compared to 2 in 2012. Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for an 11 year old with just 11 runs under rules but has a Cheltenham Festival win (the Foxhunters) & has finished placed in 8 of the 9 races he's finished (fallen once in the Hennessy & pulled up once over hurdles at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival). With such consistency & the way he travelled around the course last year we've got to have Cappa Bleu as one of our runners at odds of 12/1, if Paul Moloney doesn't give him such a tender ride this time he'll be bang there near the finish.

Other horses to respect include: Imperial Commander - winner of the 2010 Gold Cup; Chicago Grey - another who looks laced with stamina; likely favourite On His Own - representing the powerful Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh trainer-jockey partnership; & as outsiders we'd suggest Viking Blond (off a feather weight) & Joncol - a two-time Grade One winner both have a live chance of placing.

Selections:
Balthazar King each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Cappa Bleu each way at 12/1 (Coral & William Hill)

African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)