Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

Underrated Monterosso can add Eclipse to Title Haul

Saturday sees some solid racing in the UK, really for the first time since the end of the Royal Ascot meeting, as Sandown hosts its premier flat race of the year in the Coral Eclipse. It also looks like Sandown may have some proper summer racing ground conditions with the forecast ground being Good/Good to Firm in places & that helps us be a little more confident that more horses will run to form. We've got a couple of bets for Sandown & another from Haydock - last Saturday Michelangelo won well for us & each way pick Arctic picked up the place money with ease but could only finish 2nd in Ireland. As always if you aren't doing already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of this page or finding us on there.

(Monterosso winning the 2012 Dubai World Cup)

Sandown's Coral Eclipse has always been one of the highlights of the racing calendar & has been won by some great horses, going from Mill Reef & Brogadier Gerard in the 70s, Sadlers Wells & Dancing Brave in the 80s & Halling & Daylami in the 90s. In recent years we've seen Sea The Stars & So You Think win & that emphasises that you normally need a rock solid to top class Group One performer to win the race & with So You Think's withdrawal (injury & retirement in the week) we think that only leaves a few to pick from now.

There's been plenty of betting support for Saeed Bin Suroor's Farrh & the Godolphin colt clearly has plenty of scope for improvement having only raced three times before embarking on his 4 year old career & finishing a relatively closeup 3rd in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot behind So You Think & Carlton House. Farrh would need to improve quite a bit on that first run but that is definitely possible as he was a little tight for room at a crucial stage, we just have never been totally convinced by So You Think & can't see Carlton House as a Group One horse so the form's a little weighed down for us, by all accounts Farrh's team were hoping for softer ground too. We actually prefer the chances of another Godolphin runner in Monterosso, 5 year olds have an outstanding record in this race with 8 of the last 19 runnings seeing this age group successful. Monterosso comes with some form of the highest order as he won the richest race in the world, the Dubai World Cup, back in March & in 2011 he finished 3rd in the race so it was no fluke. That win back in March was made all the more impressive as after his 3rd in 2011 he missed the rest of the season after suffering with colic, he's the highest rated in this race (by a pound) & is surely being underrated by being put up as a 12/1 shot, Monterosso is trained by Al Zarooni & ridden by Mikael Barzalona & by all accounts they're now Godolphin's first trainer & jockey - not Bin Suroor & Dettori. Nathaniel is the closest to Monterosso in the ratings but hasn't raced since last October, his win in the King George over 2 furlongs further is great form though & John Gosden's horses are flying, we just feel he's a bit more of a stamina laden type than a true 10 furlong horse. Cityscape is the other top class horse here & the drying ground will help as it's far from certain whether this miler really will get 10 furlongs whilst Twice Over would previously have been a danger but now looks a horse in decline.

(Electrolyser is a bit of looker & but hopefully his rivals will only be seeing him from the rear)

In Sandown's following race we get to see a pretty competitive Listed staying contest in the Esher Stakes & it could be worth siding with Clive Cox's Electrolyser as quickish conditions should see him at his best over this true stayer distance. There isn't an awful lot between the runners on official ratings & Electrolyser will have to carry a penalty for his Nottingham win in April, he is pretty lightly raced for a 7 year old though & came 3rd in the race last year when just a 9/2 shot, he's more than  double that price this time around but could end up getting the crucial early lead he needs to show his best form. Chiberta King won the race last year & has since been competing in the top staying races but not faring particularly well although Andrew Balding's charge did run nicely on his comeback here at the end of May, he looks like he has a liking for the track & conditions will be fine - he must be rated a danger. It looks like Glen's Diamond will be prominent in the betting but his 4 wins have come over 5, 7, 9 & 10 furlongs - anyone backing Fahey's runner here is taking a big old risk that he really wants 2 miles against some confirmed stayers. Cavalryman has previously been a top racehorse but hasn't done a lot of winning in recent years, his win at York last time was a very soft Listed contest & he'll have to carry a penalty for that as he tries 2 miles for the first time. These stayers can be frustratingly inconsistent so we have to look for one at decent odds & we'll take Electrolyser to defy carrying a 3 pound penalty at decent odds of 16/1, at that price he becomes a solid each way bet too.

(Non-runner now) Over at Haydock the ground will still have a bit of juice left in it but that won't bother Rod Millman's colt Yes Two in the nursery race, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than the others but that's because he's shown the best form & on top of that is probably just about the most unexposed too. Yes Two ran well on debut before then making all successfully at Doncaster, having subsequent Listed 2nd Top Boy back in 3rd place. After that Yes Two faced a pretty impossible task when finishing 4th in a Listed race at Naas where the talented Dawn Approach won well, he had Aidan O'Brien's Pedro The Greta behind that day & that one was subsequently priced up at just 6/4 for the Group Two Railway Stakes & that indicates a mark of 85 for Yes Two is not too harsh from the handicapper. Fortinbrass is probably the biggest danger here but that one had a tough race in heavy ground just three weeks ago & has raced 4 times versus Yes Two's 3 runs. If we can get odds of 4/1 or above for Yes two we think he's a solid win chance & almost certain to grab some place money - get on!

Selections:
Sandown 3.45 - Monterosso to win at 12/1 (various)
Sandown 4.20 - Electrolyser each way at 16/1 (Coral) (Only 7 runners now so only 2 places, Betfair still running to 3 on their place market)
Haydock 4.00 - Yes Two each way at 4/1 or bigger (Non-runner)