Monday Night Football - Points hard to find in the Arizona Desert

We're concentrating on the NFL this Monday night as we can't get any consensus between contributors on the Sheffield United vs Portsmouth game from League One! The San Francisco 49ers are visiting the Arizona Cardinals in the desert & it looks an intriguing game between the NFC West rivals.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona started the season out blazing a trail with 4 wins in a row including an impressive victory against the fancied New England Patriots at Foxborough but that good start has come grinding to a halt with three losses in a row to some of the league's lesser lights although all have been by a touchdown score or less. The 49ers have been trading at low prices for the Super Bowl after reaching the NFC championship game last season & have at times looked dominant but sometimes struggled when unable to establish their running game & have scored just 16 points over the last two weeks.

(Aldon Smith Sacking John Skelton could be something we see a lot of in this one)

San Francisco certainly have no problems on defense where they rank first overall in yards given up & have been especially difficult to pass against this year ranking first again & averaging just 272 yards against them in the air. The 49ers also remain tough to run against even though their giving up 20 more yards a game running than in 2011 when they led the league, their also the best team at running the football themselves with Frank Gore having a tremendous year up at 5.8 yards a carry for 601 yards total  he's backed up well by Kendall Hunter. The only problem the 49ers have is when it comes to passing where they rank 29th (of 32) in the league with just 199.9 yards a game, Alex Smith has actually done ok with a decent passer rating & completion stats but he's been sacked way too much (18) for a quarterback who doesn't make many attempts per game (27.1).

The Cardinals have also allowed their passers to get hit way too much with Kevin Kolb sacked a league high 27 times even though he didn't start in week one & is now out injured not playing last week either. John Skelton got sacked 7 times last week against the Vikings & it seems difficult to see how they are suddenly going to improve here against a physically dominant 49er front line who although only have 11 sacks in the year so far do manage to get great pressure on the passer & Aldon Smith in particular could have a field day. The Cards are without their leading rusher Ryan Williams & it will be most likely left up to La-Rod Stephens-Howling to step up & make the carries but this will be the toughest defense he's faced this year & he's only been getting 3 yards a carry anyway. Skelton is a mediocre quarterback anyway & with pressure in his face he's unlikely to find star receivers Andre Roberts & Larry Fitzgerald who represent Arizona's bets chance of success, it looks outright impossible for them to get the scores they need to compete here. On the plus side the Cards do have a good defense, ranking 7th overall, & the most points they've conceded in a game is just 21 (twice) so they shouldn't necessarily take a beating. Only one Arizona game has gone over 38 points & just two San Francisco games so take the under 38.5 total points on offer at 10/11 & enjoy the defensive battle.

Selections:
Under 38.5 points in San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals game at 10/11 (Various)

NFL Week 8 - Hernandez & The Gronk can Waltz to Wembley Win

This week is British NFL fans best of the season other than the Super Bowl as the NFL bandwagon rolls into London town for the always sold out International Series game, it's a big one this year as last year's Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots come up against the improving St Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. We're taking a look at the big one for UK NFL nuts plus another game to see where the betting value lies, after last week where 6 teams had bye weeks there is a fuller set of fixtures with just the usual 4 teams resting.

New England Patriots @ St Louis Rams

In this game the nominal home team (meaning they gave up a home fixture in the US) are the St Louis Rams but it might not feel that way when they get into the stadium as the New England Patriots are the best supported team in the UK by a margin & will have plenty cheering them on. The Patriots have had far more success than the Rams in recent years meaning they've experienced big games & they have the stars to get fans excited too, it's easy to see why they are strong favourites in this one.

(Rob Gronkowski can wow the Wembley crowd)

The Patriots are second favourites for the Super Bowl but only have a 4&3 record, with their three losses coming by a combined total of just 4 points with narrow losses against Arizona whilst they were really rolling, the always tough Ravens & then to the defensively sound Seahawks. Those losses clearly could have gone either way & we could now be looking at an unbeaten Patriots side, they're ranked first in total offensive yards & can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways with their running looking more impressive this year to complement Tom Brady's passing game. Stevan Ridley has been the lead rusher for the Pats & has been averaging a steady 4.4 yards plus has crossed the goalline for touchdowns on 4 occasions, the biggest dangers in & around the end zone though are the star tight end pair of Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. Both Hernandez & 'the Gronk' are horrible matchups for opposing defenders as they are built like blockers yet have great hands for receiving meaning they can get extra yards after the catch regularly, Gronkowski has already gained 5 TDs on the season, with 2 coming last week, & he looks a fair price at 6/1 to score the first in this one.

St Louis have certainly improved from last year where they won just twice & they already have 3 victories, 2 coming against the Seahawks & Cardinals so you could argue they have a form line on New England. Danny Amendola was turning into a star for the Rams but is out for a while with injury & they've subsequently lost their last two (against the Packers last week was no disgrace) & their running game hasn't looked good enough to cover any flaws in the passing of Sam Bradford with Steven Jackson's production down on last year at just 3.8 yards a carry & one touchdown, it looks unlikely he'll improve here against a decent run defense. The Rams best chance of winning here is by putting pressure on Tom Brady & they do rank 5th in sacks this year, unfortunately for them the Patriots mish mash of a defense has actually done a pretty good job protecting Brady & he's mobile enough to make defenders miss anyway.

In our opinion New England are by far the more likely side to rise to the occasion & we can see them putting plenty of points on the board plus their sometimes suspect secondary won't be too troubled by the Rams' mediocre reciever corps. Rather than take the Patriots on the handicap we like the prices available for them to win by between 7-12 points at 4/1 & 13-18 at a huge 9/1 with bwin.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

The Chargers have the potential to be genuinely dangerous this year but have been hampered by the incredibly inconsistent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers who was at one time definitely amongst the elite  but hasn't reached those standards in the last season & a half, coming off a bye week to the Browns however could be just the tonic tp his passing woes.

(We're putting our trust in Philip Rivers against the Browns)

The Browns have been pretty lousy on the stats this year, ranking 26th defensively against the pass & 24th against the run & that has shown in their results with just one win in their 7 games. The Chargers meanwhile rank 2nd against the run, allowing just 71.2 yards on the ground per game & that should help limit the Browns' first round draft pick & ace young running back Trent Richardson who has become their major weapon leading in receptions also with 24. Defensive backs Eric Weddle & Quentin Jammer will also make it difficult for Brandon Weeden to pass, the Browns' quarterback had looked a little better in the last three weeks but the Chargers' defense are a step up from the Bengals & Colts. They will be hoping that Josh Gordon can come up with another monster touchdown reception as that has been their big weapon in recent weeks, he's averaging a scarcely believable 23.8 yards per catch!

The Chargers are coming off a bye week & that will be a big benefit as Rivers needed to work out some of the problems in his game & Ryan Mathews at running back continues to recover from injury, he should be getting to full strength now & is capable of a big game here. Rivers has good receioving targets in Malcolm Floyd & Antonio Gates to throw to plus Robert Meachem seems to be coming into the game more now as evidenced by his two touchdowns against his previous team the Saints. Overall we feel the Chargers have an awful lot more going for them than the less than mediocre Browns & even with the risk that is Rivers' quarterback play they look an outstanding bet giving up just 3 points on the handicap.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat St Louis Rams by 7-12 points at 4/1 (General) & 13-18 points at 9/1 (bwin)
Rob Gronkowski to score first touchdown in Patriots v Rams game at 6/1 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Cleveland Browns with -3 points on the handicap at Evens (Various)

Stout Villa defence can Cage Canaries

They say things come in threes so we'll try to get 3 out of 3 again this Saturday as we again look at the best football bets there are to be had throughout the English league system. We know that your average punter likes to have a bet on the big Premier League games but the highly competitive nature of those games & high profile in general means they are often a betting minefield where betting firms don't offer too much in the way of value at all, that's why we like to look at the lower leagues where many wouldn't even think of having a bet often & there is certainly value to be had!

Aston Villa vs Norwich City

You wouldn't be marking this game down as a glamour fixture for the Premier League but it does have an interesting story as Villa manager Paul Lambert faces off against his former employers who he left rather acrimonious circumstances in the summer. Neither side are going too well with just one win each although Norwich's came last weekend with a shock win at Carrow Road over Arsenal & that has helped put them onto 6 points compared to Villa's 5, this is a game both sides will feel they can win.

(Ron Vlaar looks & plays the part of dominant central defender for Villa)

The two teams are the joint lowest scorers in the league, along with Sunderland who've played one less, with 6 goals apiece & that lack of cutting edge is meaning relegation is a perilously realistic outcome this year. Villa signed Christian Benteke to help out in the goals department but he's managed just one (in their only win v Swansea) & Darren Bent has looked lost at times with the paucity of quality service that he needs to thrive. Norwich's problem going forward is their utter predictability & total reliance on Grant Holt to score their goals but the positive is that regardless of the fact teams know what his game is, it is still difficult to contain him & he's scored in their last three games.

On the positive side for both sides are they have decent keepers (Guzan & Ruddy) & Villa have a pretty sturdy defence with Ron Vlaar having come into the centre of defence & impressed as he's taken up the captaincy whilst Stilian Petrov has been out with serious illness. Matt Lowton has made the step from League One to the top flight look relatively easy & the Villa back four have managed to keep them in games longer than maybe they've deserved. All in all this looks like being a tight little affair & the bookies look to have got it wrong by making over, rather than under, 2.5 goals the shorter odds, back the unders in this game between sides who've combined to score just 12 goals in 16 league games.

Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City

Down in League Two, a local derby takes place as Cheltenham Town entertain Exeter City at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham are 4th currently whilst Exeter have faltered in recent weeks & have dropped down to mid-table.

(Kaid Mohamed fires one in for Cheltenham)

Cheltenham are in fine form & have won five or their last eight league games & only suffered one defeat - away at 5th place Bradford City. Their latest victory was Tuesday night as they came from behind to beat Plymouth Argyle 2-1 thanks to a winner from Welsh substitute Kaid Mohamed, that was his second in three games & he is closing on leading scorer Shaun Harrad who has five league goals so far. Cheltenham have produced their best football in front of their home faithful with 4 wins & a draw in 7 games & have won 3 of their last 4 scoring two in each match.

Exeter City started made a flying start to life in League Two with 5 victories in their first 7 league games but since then their form has been turned on its head with five defeats & only one win at bottom side Barnet in their last seven. A sole strike from evergreen forward Jamie Cureton at Dagenham & Redbridge the other night at least ended a run of three games without a goal.

Cheltenham will be expected to take advantage of a confidence hit Exeter side & continue their chase of league leaders Gillingham at the best price of 11/10 with Coral.

Brentford vs Hartlepool United

League One sees Brentford host managerless Hartlepool United at Griffin Park. Brentford are in 9th place after a solid start to the season whilst Hartlepool are rooted to the foot of the table.

(Brentford's star youngster Harry Forrester will fancy his chance of scoring against Hartlepool)

Brentford have been a Jekyll & Hyde side so far this season in terms of their home & away form - on the road they are winless with only five points from a possible 21 but at home they have been great with five wins out of seven matches. Clayton Donaldson & midfielder Harry Forrester have been in fine goalscorer form for the Bees with 10 goals between them & they will be relishing the prospect of facing a leaky Hartlepool defence.

Hartlepool's manager Neale Cooper resigned after a 2-1 defeat against Bury on Tuesday as they raked up their ninth league defeat of the season, there aren't really any positives for Hartlepool currently & already they face a hard slog to competitive this season. Their away form is awful with only one point from seven matches & they have been inflicted to a number of heavy defeats leading to a record of on average 2.29 goals shipped per game.

Brentford's terrific home form should continue at the expense of sorry Hartlepool team & they should be first on all punters accumulator lists this weekend at reasonable odds of 4/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Norwich City game at 11/10 (Various)
Cheltenham Town to beat Exeter City at 11/10 (Coral)
Brentford to beat Hartlepool United at 4/6 (Coral)

Tuesday Night Football - The Money is 'Rover' There

It was a successful betting weekend for us on the football front with all three selections doing the business for followers, we're hoping to keep the run going on Tuesday night as a full range of fixtures from the Camp Nou to Adams Park take place - again we've scoured the odds & come up with our best selections.

Tranmere Rovers vs Doncaster Rovers

League One leaders Tranmere host Doncaster at Prenton Park & will be looking to bounce back after a hefty 3-1 defeat after leading 1-0 at Bournemouth on Saturday; they have the league's best home record to fall back on & will provide a tough test for Dean Saunders' Doncaster side.

('Loan Wolf' Jake Cassidy has been in fine scoring form for Tranmere)

Tranmere's success this year has been based on their attacking threat & that is clearly shown with them having 3 of the top 4 scorers in League One in Jake Cassidy (8 goals), Jean-Louis Akpa Akro & Andy Robinson (both 7 goals). They are coming up against a Doncaster side that have been solid defensively with just 11 goals in total conceded & just 4 in their 6 away games so far, it may though be asking a little much for Doncaster to keep a clean sheet here against a side that have scored 7 more than any other side. Tranmere were suffering a little from injuries in that loss at Bournemouth, Akpa Akro is out with a broken foot & Andy Robinson was out too with fellow winger Joe Thompson also suffering from a niggly injury although he came off the bench on 89 minutes, he should be fully fit for this one & Robinson also has a chance of starting.

Doncaster made the signing of former Newcastle & Portsmouth full back Andy Griffin on Monday but it's uncertain whether he'll play in this one, we feel that as respectable a start as they've had they are running into Tranmere at just the wrong time as they look to get back on track after losing their unbeaten record, odds of 21/20 for the home win look tasty.

Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Championship action comes from the King Power Stadium as current league leaders Leicester City entertain Brighton & Hove Albion. First place Leicester are only above Cardiff City on goal difference whilst Brighton have dropped down to 8th place after a tricky period.

(Anthony Knockaert has been doing the business for Leicester)

Leicester are have made an excellent start to the season with seven victories from their opening eleven league games. They actually lost three of their first five games but since then have embarked on a tremendous run of form with five victories & one draw. Trio David Nugent, Jamie Vardy & French midfielder Anthony Knockaert have all been in fine goalscoring form in their unbeaten run with nine of their twelve goals, at home their record reads five from five with ten goals scored & only two conceded & one cap & one goal wonder David Nugent bagging all five of his goals in front of the home faithful including a hat-trick against Hull City.

Brighton slumped again last weekend in a 1-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough which now means its four league games without victory for the Seagulls. In these matches they have only managed a solitary goal with an 80th minute equaliser from winger Will Buckley against a poor Ipswich Town side three games ago. Their form on the road is decent but they have only faced one side in the top half (Hull City) & this ended in a 1-0 defeat so this will be a stern test for them. Leicester are brimming with confidence & playing some cracking football at the King Power Stadium & at the odds of 10/11 we expect Brighton's slump to continue for another match at least.

Selections:
Tranmere Rovers to beat Doncaster Rovers at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)
Leicester City to beat Brighton & Hove Albion at 10/11 (General)

Monday Night Football - Lions can keep it close in Chicago

This week's Monday Night Football is NFL action only as there is no English football as there are midweek European & lower league fixtures instead, that means we can concentrate on the NFC North divisional match up between the Detroit Lions & Chicago Bears.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

This looks to be a really exciting game with the Detroit Lions offense that coming into this week was ranking 2nd overall in yards gained per game & 2nd in passing yards behind the Patriots & Saints respectively. That high powered Detroit offense is coming up against a Bears defense that ranks 3rd overall in yards given up & 1st in points given up a game with a miserly average of just 14.2 scored against them in 5 games so far. The Bears have lost just once so far & are strong favourites against the 2&3 Lions but there is reason to believe this could be a tighter contest than some are giving credit.

(Michael Bush is a huge weapon when Chicago get down near the goal line)

The Bears' victories have all come against teams with either neutral or losing records & they haven't really had to face any top quarterbacks other than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers & in that one they were thoroughly outpointed 23-10. Chicago's real strength on defense is against the run & also in creating turnovers, they've got a league leading 13 interceptions so far & that will be a worry for Detroit as although Matt Stafford is throwing for plenty of yards he has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4). Stafford really needs to be on his game because it seems unlikely that the run game will support him too much as they have a pretty ordinary running back unit currently being led by Mike Leshoure. A big positive for Stafford his offensive line which has been performing pretty well in pass protection & should help to keep him upright against the Bears defense that likes to get after the quarterback & has had tackle Henry Melton keep on improving from last year with 4.5 sacks already.

The Bears are getting close to being a Super Bowl team but, whatever they may say, are being held back at the quarterback position with Jay Cutler merely average & maybe not having the right mentality to make the step up he needs. We really like Chicago's versatile running back Matt Forte who is a great target in the pass game as well as consistently averaging over 4.5 yards per rushing attempt but he does struggle to get the ball in the end one which is where Michael Bush comes in - he'll be consistently used in short yardage situations & is overpriced at 6/5 to score a touchdown at anytime. The Lions' defense isn't bad but they don't come up with enough stops in the red zone & that makes Michael Bush an attractive selection in this one.

(Chris Houston is Detroit's defensive back most capable of making a big play)

Detroit just love to throw the ball & they have the weapons to do it with great success as Matt Stafford has an accurate & powerful arm plus the league's best receiver to pass to in the indomitable Calvin Johnson who uses his excellent physique to dominate cornerbacks. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew & receiver Nate Burleson are Stafford's other options & are both pretty dependable meaning the Bears can't just concentrate on Johnson, they should be able to score enough points to be competitive here, they've only failed to get at least 20 points this year when disappointing badly against the Vikings. The Lions haven't got a great secondary but they only really have Brandon Marshall, who's having a great season, to worry about int he receiver department as no other Bear has reached even 200 receiving yards, we do like cornerback Chris Houston (5 interceptions in 2011) & he could be the man to step up & make a big play defensively. We think the Lions have a great chance of getting a win here but we'd rather take them with a very useful 6.5 point lead on the handicap - they'll be feeling great after last week's tough win against the Eagles.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Chicago Bears with +6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (Various)
Michael Bush to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Bet365)

NFL Week 7 - Raiders of the Lost Jags

It was a pretty tough week for NFL bettors in week 6 as 10 underdog sides won out & we didn't far at all well here either with Indianapolis looking as bad as they did last year up against the Jets & Cincinnati underperforming in Cleveland. We'll have another got though & try to bring some of our Saturday (3 form 3 fottball/soccer picks) form to the game as we take a look at a couple of games featuring this year's lesser lights.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders

In the game at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland the Raiders host the Jaguars in a battle of teams with just one win each from 5 games, clearly neither side is great but there are reasons to believe the home side Raiders are superior to the Jags.

(Darrius Heyward-Bey should be fit & ready to take the Jags apart)

Jacksonville are ranking stone last in offensive yards (241.2) & points (13) per game & they just don't have the players at skill positions to be able to pass the ball at all effectively, in the modern day, high scoring, passing NFL they are sorely lacking even with one of the best running backs around in Maurice Jones-Drew. At quarterback they have Blaine Gabbert who has a laughable career passer rating of just 67.5 & has a league low 5.5 yards per pass this year, he's got a promising rookie in Justin Blackmon to pass to plus we like Laurent Robinson but they are hardly a great set of receivers plus he just doesn't have the skills regardless of the targets. In 2011 the Jags' saving grace was that they were pretty tough defensively (ranking 6th overall) but that isn't the case this year as they rank a lowly 29th & have been giving up 163 yards per game on the ground, that isn't a good sign as they come up against one of the better backs around in Darren McFadden.

Oakland nearly came up with a huge result last week as they ended up only losing by 3 points against the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons & that bodes well in this game if they can take the momentum gained in the Atlanta Dome & use it in front of their own fans. The Raiders have actually been pretty poor at running the ball this year thanks to their poor defensive blocking meaning that Darren McFadden gets hit earlier in his runs than any other back, coming up against the Jaguars & their poor run defense might be just the cure for that problem though. Quarterback Carson Palmer has been having a pretty solid year & is averaging 286.5 yards through the air with his pretty good wide receiver corps that has been bolstered by Derek Hagan who rejoined after being with Oakland for the first part of last season. Tight end Brandon Myers has stepped up all of a sudden & leads the team in receiving yards with 290, his previous best for a whole season was just 151 yards so he's added another option, they've also got Denarius Moore & Darrius Heyward-Bey (who's been struggling with injury but should be fully fit here) & their options far outweigh Jacksonville's.

Oakland are excellent on special teams & can rely on Sebastian Janikowski to kick field goals from anywhere inside of 65 yards, even though they're 1&5 they should have too much for Jacksonville, however rather than take the handicap of -6 points we far prefer the half time/full time bet of Oakland/Oakland at odds of 21/20, they can control the game from beginning to end.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

(The Buffalo Bills' C.J. Spiller could be in for another big day running the football)

The Titans & Bills are two sides with plenty of problems yet the Bills somehow find themselves with a .500 record thanks to a forgiving schedule that has seen them beat the lowly Browns & Chiefs plus run into the Cardinals just as they faced a quarterback crisis. Tennesee have been stuffed out of sight 4 times but come up with narrow 3 point wins against Detroit (in overtime) & Pittsburgh (last week when the Steelers were inconvenienced by being the away side for the Thursday night game). It hardly makes this game an inspiring one but there is a good bet to be had here.

The total points line for this game is set at 46.5 & from their 12 games combined these two sides have seen 47 or more points on 9 of those 12 occasions. The Titans are giving up a league worst average of 34 points per game & the Bills are giving up the second most with 32 per game, with two such poor defenses this is set to be a high scoring free for all. The Bills just can't stop the run & although the Titans are averaging a paltry 70.2 yards rushing per game this could be just the tonic for their star back Chris 'CJ2K' Johnson who has struggled to replicate his incredible form from 2 & 3 seasons ago. The Bills have one of the league's most potent rushing attacks with Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller always ready to unload on opposition defenses & they should see plenty of joy against the Titans, if they get into the red zone they should be able to push ahead & convert for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. Neither side is great but Buffalo are deserving favourites, we still like the over 46.5 total points bet as the best value option here & odds of 5/6 for C.J. Spiller to score a TD at anytime also look on the big side - he's got touchdowns in 4 of his 6 games & Tennessee struggle to stop anything.

Selections:
Oakland Raiders to beat Jacksonville Jaguars Half time/Full time at 21/20 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Over 46.5 points in Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills game at 10/11 (General)
C.J. Spiller to score a touchdown at anytime at 5/6 (Ladbrokes)