NFL Week 10 - Terrific Texans can hunt down Brutal Bears

The NFL is back & we're getting to the final stretch where every game is crucial as teams look to get the records they'll need to make the playoffs & make a Super Bowl run, the bookies seem to think most divisions are already decided but there could be a few upsets along the way & it may even be that the Falcons unbeaten record is under serious threat tonight against New Orleans. We've previewed a couple of games as we look to turn another tidy profit after last Sunday's straightforward pair of selections.

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

We start off with what may be an uninspiring contest to watch but a decent betting opportunity between two teams that have been struggling to put points on the board recently but are tough to beat on the other side of the ball. The 49ers scored just 40 points in their 3 games before the bye week & the Rams bagged just 41 points in their 3 games, including the 45-7 loss to the Patriots at Wembley.

(Daryl Richardson is becoming a big part of the Rams' offense)

The sides rank 24th (St Louis) & 28th (San Francisco) in passing yards & instead tend to rely on their running game (both rank in bottom 6 teams for passing attempts per game). That reliance on the run means that the clock keeps running more often (incomplete passes stop the clock) & that tends to lead to lower scoring games with less plays & that is reflected with 5 of the 49ers' games going under today's set points total & half of the Rams' games have gone under 39 points too. There's good reason to think it even more likely today as the 49ers have conceded the fewest points per game in the league with a dominant defense that harasses the quarterback & is rock solid against the running game, Aldon Smith is a particular star but the whole unit is outright scary.

The Rams' defensive record would look better if it wasn't for that blowout against the Patriots & the week before they ran into the high powered Green Bay offense & gave up 30 points there (not disrespectable against them), when they faced some of the lesser lights on offense they've limited those teams pretty well: Seahawks 13 points; Cardinals 3 points; Dolphins 17 points. On the offensive side of the ball the Rams have really missed Danny Amendola at receiver after his shoulder injury, he was really emerging as a big threat & there is a possibility he could return in this one but they are still a little light in passing weapons even with Chris Givens recently coming through as a legitimate deep threat with catches of 50+ yards in each of his last 3 games. Both teams will lean heavily on their tailbacks but whilst Frank Gore has been averaging 82 rushing yards a game the Rams' feature back Steven Jackson hasn't had one 80+ yard game this year & Daryl Richardson is now sharing many of the carries. We can't see anything other than a defensive battle here & San Francisco should win, the value lies however with the St Louis Rams with a big +12.5 point lead on the handicap because if it's low scoring the 49ers will struggle to pull away.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears

For our money this is the standout game of the week with two highly fancied teams for the Super Bowl from either conference taking each other on with identical 7&1 records having both only been beaten by the Packers this season - it's the Houston Texans travelling to the Chicago Bears for a rumble!

(Matt Schaub - well protected by his O-Line)

If there is a word of warning for backers of either of these teams it would be that they've both had fairly undemanding schedules for the most part & that when they did come up against the high powered offense of the Packers both sides failed, they did both bounce back creditably though & both have some scarily good defenses & excellent running backs. Both teams rank joint 3rd with sacks gained this season with 25 each & J.J. Watt continues to prove  unstoppable for the Texans whilst the Bears have 4 players with 4 or more sacks & Charles 'Peanut' Tillman has forced an incredible 7 fumbles on the year (as many as the Texans whole team).

Both sides are also great against the run with the Texans ranking 2nd in yards given up (& would be1st but no one bothers to run against Tampa Bay as their pass defense is so laughable!) & the Bears rank 6th, the big thing to note about the Texans is that along with New England they've allowed only one run of 20+ yards all year showing the high levels of concentration they possess. The Texans are 4th against the pass whilst the Bears only rank 16th, the big difference being that Chicago have come up with a huge 17 interceptions & are generally built for turnovers with Tim Jennings coming up with 6 of his 13 career interceptions this season. Houston's cornerbacks Kareem Jackson & Johnathan Joseph have come up with a few picks themselves but the Bears are almost unmatchable in terms of their picks.

(The Bears' Jay Cutler - not so well protected...)

So we've identified both teams are ace defensively but the big difference is in thee quarterback play & protection for these two sides. Whilst Matt Schaub has been sacked just 10 times all season & also thrown just 4 interceptions, Jay Cutler has been sacked 28 times (2nd highest in league) & thrown 8 picks. It's just going to be much easier to get to Cutler than it is to Schaub & the Bears gameplan of creating turnovers may not work in this one. The Bears also only have one wideout with over 200 receiving yards, Brandon Marshall, & although he's been excellent the Texans will be pleased to know they only have one receiving target to really worry about. The Texans have 4 receivers with 200+ yards including their fullback James Casey & tight end Owen Daniels as they use their play action passing game to full effect. We like Chicago running back Matt Forte but can't see him having much joy in this one as Houston have the speedy players too stop him being elusive & this could instead be the game where Arian Foster proves he is 'the' elite running back in the NFL. The Bears defense are great but the Texans are too efficient & the league's 2nd highest scorers can prevail in this one at odds of 11/10, also take Houston to win by 7-12 points at 6/1 with William Hill.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat San Francisco 49ers with +12.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Chicago Bears at 11/10 (Ladbrokes) & by 7-12 points at 6/1 (William Hill)

NFL Week 9 - Forte & Foster can Feast on awful rushing defenses

After an unpredictable start the NFL season is starting to settle down & some of the bigger boys are exerting control over their respective divisions & in their games too, we're siding with some of the potential Super Bowl contenders this week in favourable match-ups.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans

We tipped up the Bears to gain 10 or more regular season wins in our season preview & they have made the most of the weak opponents they've faced to post a 6&1 record so far, they come up against the Tennessee Titans here who are 3&5 & just horrible on the defensive side of the football.

(Matt Forte looks tailor-made for this game against the Titans)

This is basically a great match-up for the Bears as the Titans are severely limited when their running back Chris Johnson doesn't manage to break off big runs  it seems unlikely he'll thrive in this one as the Bears rank 1st in rushing yards given up. The Titans had given their starting quarterback job to youngster Jake Locker but have had to revert to Plan B  stick 37 year old veteran Matt Hasselbeck back in after Locker was injured, Hasselbaeck has been good in the past but he's merely serviceable now & he'll ave a tough time escaping Julius Peppers & Harry Melton who've combined for 10.5 sacks for the Bears so far this year.

The Titans rank 29th overall in both passing & rushing yards given up & the Bears' star offensive player Matt Forte looks like having a huge game as he's so proficient at running & also receiving out of the backfield. Chicago struggled for a long time against Carolina last week but rallied impressively with a last minute field goal after trailing 19-7 going into the 4th quarter, they will be determined to show their true colours here - the Panthers are an unpredictable side anyway so we're not too concerned with the narrow victory. We think the Bears weakness at quarterback (Jay Cutler is way off being elite) limit their chances for a Super Bowl win this year but they should have more than enough to cover the -3.5 point handicap here, all but one of their wins have been by more than that & all 5 of Tennessee's losses have also been by more than 3 points.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

The Texans bounced back after unimpressive displays against the Jets & Packers to absolutely thrash the Baltimore Ravens 43-13 before heading off for their bye week & they get a present delivered to their doorstep here as the Buffalo Bills come to town for a game they look highly unsuited for. The Texans have only tasted defeat once this year & they showed they didn't like it in their next game so the Bills face an uphill struggle to get anything out of this one.

(Arian Foster could be saying thank you a lot against the Bills' defense)

The Texans have probably the best running back around in Arian Foster & they rank 6th overall in the league so far in terms of rushing yards per game but that ranking looks likely to improve after this one as the Bills cannot stop teams from running all over them. The Bills are giving up a huge 176.9 yards rushing per game & the moves they made in the Summer (including for the Texans' star defensive end Mario Williams) have not borne the rewards they hoped for. The Bills' main offensive weapons themselves are their running back duo of Fred Jackson & C.J.Spiller, with Spiller exploding into action when given the chance this year, the problem here is that they run into the Texans' defense which ranks 3rd against the run limiting their chances of impressing here.

The Bills hopes in this one surely come down to whether passer Ryan Fitzpatrick can have a stormer & to give him credit he's thrown for a lot of TDs this year (15) although they don't tend to go to the air very often which is understandable with their mediocre receivers. As well as the Bill's offensive line have looked after Fitzpatrick so far it will be a huge test to stop JJ Watt getting to him as the young Houston defender has been in unbelievable form this year with 9.5 sacks & plenty of pass blocks too. The Texans are rightly noted for their running game but they have weapons when passing too with tight end Owen Daniels coming to the fore recently & two time NFL receiving yards leader Andre Johnson has looked better in his past two games with decent yardage & receptions after not getting targeted too often (or dropping passes when he was) in weeks 2-5. Matt Schaub is an excellent decision maker at the quarterback position & he's only thrown 4 interceptions in 2012 so it looks hard for the Bills to make up for the yards they'll give up defensively by creating turnovers. Houston have already won 4 games this year by 20 or more points so the -10 points they give up in this one doesn't look an insurmountable task, back them to do it as they come off a bye week nice & fresh against a Bills team there for the taking.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Tennessee Titans with -3.5 point handicap at Evens (Skybet)
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills with -10 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

Monday Night Football - Lions can keep it close in Chicago

This week's Monday Night Football is NFL action only as there is no English football as there are midweek European & lower league fixtures instead, that means we can concentrate on the NFC North divisional match up between the Detroit Lions & Chicago Bears.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

This looks to be a really exciting game with the Detroit Lions offense that coming into this week was ranking 2nd overall in yards gained per game & 2nd in passing yards behind the Patriots & Saints respectively. That high powered Detroit offense is coming up against a Bears defense that ranks 3rd overall in yards given up & 1st in points given up a game with a miserly average of just 14.2 scored against them in 5 games so far. The Bears have lost just once so far & are strong favourites against the 2&3 Lions but there is reason to believe this could be a tighter contest than some are giving credit.

(Michael Bush is a huge weapon when Chicago get down near the goal line)

The Bears' victories have all come against teams with either neutral or losing records & they haven't really had to face any top quarterbacks other than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers & in that one they were thoroughly outpointed 23-10. Chicago's real strength on defense is against the run & also in creating turnovers, they've got a league leading 13 interceptions so far & that will be a worry for Detroit as although Matt Stafford is throwing for plenty of yards he has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4). Stafford really needs to be on his game because it seems unlikely that the run game will support him too much as they have a pretty ordinary running back unit currently being led by Mike Leshoure. A big positive for Stafford his offensive line which has been performing pretty well in pass protection & should help to keep him upright against the Bears defense that likes to get after the quarterback & has had tackle Henry Melton keep on improving from last year with 4.5 sacks already.

The Bears are getting close to being a Super Bowl team but, whatever they may say, are being held back at the quarterback position with Jay Cutler merely average & maybe not having the right mentality to make the step up he needs. We really like Chicago's versatile running back Matt Forte who is a great target in the pass game as well as consistently averaging over 4.5 yards per rushing attempt but he does struggle to get the ball in the end one which is where Michael Bush comes in - he'll be consistently used in short yardage situations & is overpriced at 6/5 to score a touchdown at anytime. The Lions' defense isn't bad but they don't come up with enough stops in the red zone & that makes Michael Bush an attractive selection in this one.

(Chris Houston is Detroit's defensive back most capable of making a big play)

Detroit just love to throw the ball & they have the weapons to do it with great success as Matt Stafford has an accurate & powerful arm plus the league's best receiver to pass to in the indomitable Calvin Johnson who uses his excellent physique to dominate cornerbacks. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew & receiver Nate Burleson are Stafford's other options & are both pretty dependable meaning the Bears can't just concentrate on Johnson, they should be able to score enough points to be competitive here, they've only failed to get at least 20 points this year when disappointing badly against the Vikings. The Lions haven't got a great secondary but they only really have Brandon Marshall, who's having a great season, to worry about int he receiver department as no other Bear has reached even 200 receiving yards, we do like cornerback Chris Houston (5 interceptions in 2011) & he could be the man to step up & make a big play defensively. We think the Lions have a great chance of getting a win here but we'd rather take them with a very useful 6.5 point lead on the handicap - they'll be feeling great after last week's tough win against the Eagles.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Chicago Bears with +6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (Various)
Michael Bush to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Bet365)

We need to talk about the Bears & the Bees

We've got Thursday night action before we get to the weekend as we see a classic NFL rivalry renewed in Green Bay & a League One football game with Leyton Orient trying to follow up their win against Swindon when they host Brentford. We'll be back with picks for the weekend's football from both sides of the Atlantic as the winter sports season nstarts to motor, get notified of updates to the blog by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

(Packers linebacker Clay Matthews is looking to get back to his 2010 form)

The Green Bay Packers get another chance at home after losing to our picks for the NFC the 49ers when they host the Chicago Bears on Thursday night in a standout matchup from the first couple of weeks' action. The layers are expecting a shootout & they've set the total points line at 50.5 but the score going over that is entirely plausible as both teams' opening games surpassed it (52 for Green Bay & 62 for the Chicago). 12 of the Packers' 17 games last year went 51+ points as Aaron Rodger went pass mad & although the Bears' defense is very good it won't be as tough as the brilliant 49ers & that means we should be looking at Green Bay scoring close to or north of 30 points alone. With the Packers' rushing attack looking weak that should mean they pass even more often  that means that time won't run off the clock so quickly & higher scores become more likely.

(Brandon Marshall has settled in very nicely already with the Bears)

For their part the Bears look to have made one hell of an astute signing with Michael Bush as a complementary running back to Matt Forte, we pointed it out before their opener & he went & proved it by pushing home two TDs when down at the goal line - it means they've improved their likelihood of getting touchdowns when in the red zone rather than field goals & again means higher scoring games. The Packers remain weak in coverage & will struggle with Brandon Marshall who has instantly linked up with Jay Cutler after previously being together at Denver & he should get a stack of receiving yardage again.

The Bears' offensive line still doesn't inspire huge confidence when protecting the passer & Green Bay's defense will be on high alert, especially Clay Matthews who had 2.5 sacks v the Colts after a bit of a down year in 2011 following being named defensive MVP in 2010. If the Packers can't get to Jay Cutler he'll hit Marshall & it will set up Forte to break some big runs & the value might lie here with the visitors at 12/5 with Coral. We certainly like the over 50.5 points bet as this game looks like being a cracker with the Packers difficult to stop & the Bears looking effective in the passing & ground games.

Leyton Orient vs Brentford

Leyton Orient host Brentford at Griffin Park in a League One game as Orient try to catch up with the schedule after having a game with Hartlepool postponed. Brentford are sat in 7th spot on eight points whilst Leyton Orient have played a game less & have three points on the board. Orient's points came as they beat Swindon last weekend to arrest a terrible start to the league season with three defeats from three games against Tranmere Rovers, Stevenage & Crawley Town. An away win at Swindon is impressive on paper but there seems to be a bit of unrest in the Robins dressing room & the result probably said more about Swindon than the O's.

(Clayton Donaldson is in great shape & it's paying off with goals)

Brentford have won two of their last three games against Crewe (5-1) & Colchester (1-0) & have drawn both matches on the road. In their five matches there have been seven goals scored in the 80th minute or later so this game could be in the balance right to the end. We don't think that it will be that close though as Brentford's attacking threat is potent with Clayton Donaldson thriving now he seems to have established himself as the main man up front & the summer signing of the Moroccan Farid El Alagui has added some class whilst striking up a solid partnership with Donaldson.

Leyton Orient have just two goals in the League this year & their best chance of success is surely to try to defend & catch Brentford on the break, we don't feel they have the quality to compete though (finished 20th v Brentford's 9th last year) & Brentford are a fair price at 7/5.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Green Bay Packers at 12/5 (Coral)
Over 50.5 points total in Bears v Packers game at 10/11 (General)
Brentford to beat Leyton Orient at 7/5 (Paddy Power & Coral)

St Louis Lambs to the Slaughter in Detroit

Well we started off with a nice winner on Wednesday night as the Dallas Cowboys didn't need their 4 point head start to beat the New York Giants & we're looking to carry that on in the opening weekend games as we look to find mismatches  exploit them for betting $$$. Follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button above - we love sports & betting & love to have more punters join in the conversation.

We fear for the St Louis Rams as they visit the Detroit Lions in their noisy Ford Field stadium on Sunday evening, this is a side that managed just two wins in 2011 up against a team that finished 10&6 with their only failures came against the elite sides of the NFC. To sum up the difference in class between these two teams look at the total points they scored in 2011, there were a huge 474 points for Detroit (4th overall) & just 193 on the board for St Louis (a league worst 32nd) - it seems inconceivable that the Rams can even get close here.

(What a player. What a man. What a MEGATRON! Calvin Johnson for the Detroit Lions)

The Lions have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with quarterback Matt Stafford prepared to air it out against  anyone & he has probably the league's best receiver in 'Megatron' Calvin Johnson as his main receiver. In addition to Johnson they also have a top ight end in Brandon Pettigrew & Titus Young at wide receiver, Young had a very good rookie season but the whisper is that he looked great in practice & is ready to have a breakout year. The Lions do have problems at running back as first choice Jahvid Best has worryingly still jot yet been cleared after suffering concussion symptoms in late November of 2011, they remain confident he will be cleared at some point but for now Kevin Smith will lead the line. They're pretty good on defense too with the dominating Ndamukong Suh being the leader, he's violently excellent & will look to rough up the Rams offensive line as he aims to get to Sam Bradford. Suh is joined by Kyle Vanen Bosch to form an ace pass rush & we love the big play potential of cornerback Chris Houston who has returend 3 of his 9 interceptions for touchdowns.

The Rams are under a new coach as owner Stan Kroenke (also Arsenal's major shareholder) has brought in long time Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher & they will be desperate for improvement. However new coaching means new plays & schemes & it could take a while before we see any real progress from St Louis. Sam Bradford is a talented if maybe somewhat fragile quarterback, it doesn't help that his offensive line isn't good enough at protecting him & his receiver corps is amongst the weakest in the league. The Rams do have a good tailback in Steven Jackson & a lot of their offense will rest on him again & we like the improvement they've made at defensive tackle selecting the huge Michael Brockers in the first round of the draft & bringing in Kendall Langford from Miami. St Louis look to have way too much to do in this one & the Detroit Lions can cover the -7.5 point handicap with ease. Paddy Power are also going a standout 11/2 about Calvin Johnson to grab the first touchdown, it looks an excellent bet for the receiver who gained 16 last year & also had one from his only reception in their last preseason game.

(The Miami Dolphins aren't very good but their defense is & they could frustrate the Texans)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans look to start off at their home of their Reliant Stadium with a nice gentle one against the rather hapless Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins actually had a pretty mean defense last year ranking 6th in terms of points given up & 3rd overall against the run, that is a huge plus when you  have to come up against the Texans' indomitable running back Arian Foster. Along with the Broncos (who had running QB Tim Tebow), Houston ran the ball more than any other team with over 34 attempts a game, with Foster ably backed up by Ben Tate, if they try the same tactics here the Dolphins are a side that can potentially slow them down but not stop them. The Texans are unlikely to run quite so much now that they have starting quarterback Matt Schaub fit & he looked pretty sharp in preseason, he'll have one of the league's best deep threats in star receiver Andre Johnson & emerging wide receivers Lestar Jean & DeVier Posey should also offer options.

We've no optimism that the Dolphins will have sorted their offensive problems this season with the installation of promising rookie Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback, even if Tannehill performs he really doesn't have the weapons at receiver or tight end to pass to. The Dolphins also aren't great at running back - Reggie Bush has done well since joining from New Orleans but he's basically been disappointing as a pro after being selected 2nd overall in 2006, it remains touch & go whether his knees will hold out for a full season. Even if the Dolphins did have a decent attack trying to implement that against the Texans outstanding D just wouldn't be simple, they're strong at the line & with their defensive backs too & will shut down plenty of sides this year. The total points line has been set at 42.5 in this game but that looks too high, in 2011 both sides had 11 of their 16 regular season games going under 43 points & there's no reason to think it will be different here.

(Touchdown 'Vulture' Michael Bush will be looking to pick up the pieces for the Chicago Bears)

We love some of the value available in the touchdown scorers markets & away from our two games we like the look of Michael Bush for the Chicago Bears. Matt Forte is the Bears main man but they do like to protect him when they get around the goal line & he only actually got 4 touchdowns last year (3 rushing & 1 receiving), they often went to big Marion Barber last year but he's retired & they've brought in Michael Bush from the Oakland Raiders. Bush is renowned for his ability down near the goal line & gained 8 TDs in both 2010 & 2011, with the way the Bears play he is just too big at 11/1 to score first.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat St Louis Rams with a -7.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Calvin Johnson to score first touchdown in St Louis Rams v Detroit Lions game at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
Miami Dolphins v Houston Texans under 42.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Michael Bush to score first touchdown in Indianapolis Colts v Chicago Bears game at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)