Villa Upstarts to go all ASBO over Liverpool

Another weekend of football action coming up & with 5 out of 6 winning bets, including 3 on the Premier League last week, we're hoping to continue in a similar vein with selections from the top division down to the lower leagues. As always if you find us here but don't follow us on Twitter please do; you can find us @LikeBuyingMoney & we'll hopefully keep you entertained as well as informed!

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This is maybe the weekend's most interesting Premier League game (at least until Man United vs Chelsea on Monday night) as we get to take a look at a seemingly much improved Aston Villa side who take on the still Suarez-less Liverpool who for all their good play last week still only beat Stoke thanks to a late penalty save.

(Gabriel Agbonlahor finished 2012-13 in fine form & has continued so far this season)

Paul Lambert seems to be getting the best out of his squad of young players at the moment, particularly the forwards Christian Benteke & Gabby Agbonlahor with the lifelong Villa man looking unplayable at times with his pace & power in their opening two games against Arsenal & Chelsea. The ever-promising Fabian Delph may also be ready to deliver this season judged on the start he's made & whilst there remain issues with regards to Villa's sturdiness they look like they have the potential to give any side a game of it at the moment.

Liverpool finished off last season in pretty hot form (7 wins, 4 draws & a loss in their final 12) but by then it meant little in terms of what they could achieve in the league & it remains to be seen whether they can put that kind of form together over a whole season in order to claim a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers would surely be happy so long as they don't drop too many points whilst without their star striker Luis Suarez, out of action because of his ban & he's got his side a tricky contest here. Liverpool's main area of weakness for us is their lack of width in midfield with the fullbacks Johnson & Enriquez having to provide nearly all of that especially now that Stewart Downing has departed. Downing was considered a flop at the club but only Steven Gerrard started more games than him last season & it's not an ideal problem to have against Villa in particular.

(Brendan 'Envelope' Rodgers may find it hard to gain a victory away from the Anfield faithful)

Villa tended to struggle with balls into the box from out wide last year, including corners, so it's an ideal avenue to attack for most teams but with Weiman & Agbonlahor in advanced positions they should be able to defend from the front & keep Liverpool's fullbacks a bit quieter. Of course Liverpool are still dangerous with the classy operator Couinho & Gerrard, still capable of the spectacular, in midfield but Villa should be able to put men in against them & their defence will be happier to see the ball in front of them - they were relatively comfortable for long periods against a similar approach from Chelsea in the 2nd half on Wednesday.

Benteke is already on fire & his signing of a new contract looks the best bit of business done by a Premier League club this summer, with the young Belgian firing Villa have every chance of getting all 3 points here & with SportingBet & Paddy Power offering odds of 15/8 with the extra insurance of draw no bet this selection has to be advised. The fact Villa had to play in midweek is of course taken into account but at this stage of the season their players should be able to handle the quick turnaround & the extra football may come in handy whilst other teams try to shake off the pre-season rustiness.

Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town

In League One we see newly promoted Rotherham playing host to Shrewsbury in a clash that could be well be heavily influenced by the crucial home advantage. Shrewsbury ranked 20th in League One last season for points gained on the road whilst Rotherham ranked 4th at home in League Two & have started the season very respectably indeed.

(Rotherham's bruising centre forward Alex Revell could cause problems here)

Both teams gained their first wins of the season last week with Rotherham's 2-1 defeat of manager Steve Evans' former club Crawley particularly sweet for The Millers & that means Rotherham remain unbeaten thanks to a good draw with fancied Preston & two late goals away to Crewe salvaging a 3-3 draw & showing their battling qualities & good fitness levels to keep going to the end. Shrewsbury just don't seem to have many goals in their side, they didn't find the net in their first two games & their top scorer last season Marvin Morgan bagged just 7 goals with their number 9 Tom Bradshaw scoring his first goal in two years in their win against Swindon. We've already noted that Swindon appear to be a club in a bit of turmoil so we're not too impressed with that win & we reckon Graham Turner will be setting his team up not to lose rather than be proactive & aim for 3 points in this one.

Rotherham haven't looked bereft of ideas in attack so far this year & it's possible that their Irish midfielder Lee Frecklin could keep up his decent scoring record & the 6"3 forward Alex Revell poses a problem for most opposition defences & can link up well with either Nardiello or Agard. With the odds on offer at Evens with BetVictor (they're odds on everywhere else) Rotherham look worthy of a decent punt here to gain another victory in their push for successive promotions.

Selections:
Aston Villa to beat Liverpool draw no bet at 15/8 (Paddy Power & SportingBet)
Rotherham to beat Shrewsbury at Evens (BetVictor)

Right Wing Devils but still better than the Villains

We just love Saturdays at the minute with 7 winning bets from 8 main selections at odds of 11/5 (double of 4/5 & 8/11), 6/5, 11/10, 11/10, 8/11, 6/5 & Evens. We're always pretty selective with our tipping as we think that even if you're successful it does take something away when you put selections up every day but hopefully we can come up with another perfect set of picks on the day of the week every gambler loves best! Remember you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above or finding us on there & by doing so you'll keep up to date with notifications about the blog & be able to join in the sports & betting conversation.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Sometimes it pays to keep things simple & this looks a penalty kick (hopefully not taken by Wayne Rooney...) for United here as they look to maintain their position at the summit of the Premier League table. Villa managed their second win of the season with a gutsy 1-0 win at Sunderland last week but this looks altogether tougher against Ferguson's side who've now won 8 of their last 9 in the league scoring 26 goals in the process & they should have too much firepower for Villa to compete.

(Along with Valencia, Rafael has been wreaking havoc down the right)

A lot has been made of how often United have fallen behind in games but Villa's offense is so impotent they may not trouble the back four that have now been playing together for some time since Vidic's injury & looked to have Arsenal's offense completely shut down on Saturday. United have actually scored plenty of early goals themselves with their new star Robin van Persie having scored in the first half in 5 league games already. Being on the road doesn't bother United either with them having won all 4 since their opening day loss to Everton & they should play on the front foot from the start here.

Villa have only scored more than one goal on one occasion & although their defence is pretty sound they've only played Everton & Spurs out of the teams you could consider the better in the league & their inexperienced full backs Matt Lowton & Joe Bennett could have their hands full with United's wingers & the overlapping Rafael & Evra. United are getting a lot of success scoring from crosses & passes from the wide areas but can hurt from the middle too. The 4/7 about a United win looks more than fair but for better odds look for them to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 11/8.

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City

Blackburn & their fans haven't had the easiest couple of years with their idiosyncratic Indian owners at the helm but the Rovers faithful got what they wanted with Steve Kean's sacking & now have their first home game with new boss & ex-player Henning Berg in charge, coming up against a pretty mediocre Birmingham side.

(Blackburn's 'old man' Morten Gamst Pedersen still has a quality delivery)

Lee Clark has come in as Birmingham manager but hasn't really got his ragtag squad firing whilst going forward & they rank joint 3rd worst in terms of goals with just 17 in 15 games & lost to bottom of the league Ipswich last Saturday. They did win at Bristol City on Tuesday but they were themselves in 23rd place & this a tougher assignment against a Blackburn side that retain a lot of good players considering the upheaval at the club. Their big summer signing was powerful young striker Jordan Rhodes & he's starting to hit his stride, scoring in 3 of their last 5 games. Rovers have also got a decent enough defence & rank joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded - it would be better if they hadn't conceded 3 in consecutive games against Leeds & Bristol City (losing neither).

With what promises to be a full house at Ewood Park Blackburn should really push forwards in this one against Birmingham who have looked woeful at times (particularly the 5-0 loss to Barnsley & the recent Ipswich game). Even with losing to red-hot Palace & drawing once getting 2-1 up against Huddersfield, Rovers are still in the playoff places whilst Birmingham languish close to the relegation zone so take the 21/20 for a Blackburn win.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Aston Villa HT/FT at 11/8 (Stan James)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Birmingham City at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)

Goals? You never said anything about scoring goals!?

We're still smarting after going so close to all 3 results coming in for us last weekend with Brentford the let downs after scoring all 4 goals in their game but unfortunately with two at the wrong end! It's been a decent footy season for us & we'll attempt to keep it going with a goals market double in the Premier League plus a game in the 1st round of the FA Cup.

Norwich City vs Stoke City & Sunderland vs Aston Villa

This Saturday sees maybe the two least inspiring matches of the season so far only rivalled when these 4 teams faced off last week in a slightly different order of play where Villa drew 1-1 with Norwich & Stoke drew 0-0 with Sunderland. The four teams have each managed just one win each & fill 4 of the bottom 5 places for goals scored in the league this season, whilst Sunderland & Stoke are 2nd & joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded. All of this means it's been pretty miserable for fans of all 4 teams this year & could end up having long term consequences in terms of reduced attendances if they can't find some attacking tendencies quickly.

(Crouch & Walters are Stoke's likeliest scorers)

We'll start off with the Norwich v Stoke game & this is one that we feel is going to be a real struggle for the Canaries as their one method of scoring that has proven at least semi-effective is getting the ball up to Grant Holt & he has proven he can bully plenty of classy Premier League defenders. Holt however won't find it as easy to get success against the Stoke defenders who are the most physical in the league (even without the broken-legged Marc Wilson) & can easily deal with most crosses & set piece situations & are led by their dominant captain Ryan Shawcross. We're also fans (as are Chelsea) of Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic & think they can keep Norwich at bay here, Stoke don't score too many themselves (only scored 3 or more goals once in the League since May 2011) so this looks an ideal candidate of a game to go under 2.5 goals & odds of 4/5 about it are excellent value. Stoke have played probably the 4 best sides in the country already (Chelsea, Arsenal & both Manchester sides) losing only twice & they'll be looking to improve now they have an easier set of fixtures & we'll take them to sneak this one 1-0 at a generous price of 8/1.

(Colback, Cuellar & O'Shea - 3 of Sunderland's impenetrable back 4)

Sunderland have only lost once this year (to Man City) & have been imperious defensively with veterans John O'Shea & Carlos Cuellar arguably the best centre back pairing in the league right now, of course it helps that they are guarded by the midfield terrier that is Lee Cattermole. Sunderland's real problem has been the lack of chances they've created & Stephane Sessegnon's form has been a particular problem as he was so important last season, James McClean is off the boil a bit too & Seb Larsson hasn't even been getting his set pieces right. We'd also argue that although Craig Gardner has done well at right back this year we much prefer him higher up the pitch  playing neat one-twos to find a way through opposing defenses. If Sunderland do create chances they know that Steven Fletcher can put them away & they may find they can push higher up the pitch in this game as Villa offer so little at the top end of the pitch themselves.

Villa have only scored twice & gained one point from their 5 away games so far, losing to nil against West Ham, Spurs & Fulham, they may have scored 3 in midweek but that was against League One Swindon & we think they'll fail to find the back of the net here. Both sides  played pretty much full strength sides in their League Cup matches meaning there could be somewhat tired legs here but Sunderland will be desperate to win for their fans after falling to local rivals Middlesbrough & can take this with a narrow 1-0 victory (6-1) & this can be doubled up with the previous game to go under 2.5 goals too (8/11).

Forest Green Rovers vs Port Vale

This weekend sees the 1st round of the FA Cup with Forest Green Rovers entertaining Port Vale at The New Lawn. Forest Green are sitting in 6th spot in the Conference Premier whilst Port Vale are 28 places higher in 2nd position in League Two.

(Striker Tom Pope has been in fantastic goalscoring form with 15 goals already this season)

 

Port Vale have won nine matches & collected 30 points so far this season & have been in fine form in the last couple of months. They did suffer a setback last weekend with a 2-0 defeat to Northampton Town but they did play 70 minutes with ten men after John McCombe dismissal. Before this game they won four & draw two of their last six league games & their record on the road this season is particularly good with five victories & hitting the net on average nearly two goals per game.

Forest Green, the longest serving members of the Conference Premier, made a fantastic start to the season but have tailed off in recent weeks. They have lost four league games in a row & two of these have been at home against Tamworth & Luton Town. Confidence would have undoubtedly taken a hit & Port Vale will be too strong for them at the general price of 6/5.

Selections: Under 2.5 goals double - Norwich v Stoke at 4/5 & Sunderland v Aston Villa at 8/11 (Stan James)
Stoke to beat Norwich 1-0 at 8/1 (Stan James)
Sunderland to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at 6/1 (Various)
Port Vale to beat Forest Green Rovers at 6/5 (Various)

Stout Villa defence can Cage Canaries

They say things come in threes so we'll try to get 3 out of 3 again this Saturday as we again look at the best football bets there are to be had throughout the English league system. We know that your average punter likes to have a bet on the big Premier League games but the highly competitive nature of those games & high profile in general means they are often a betting minefield where betting firms don't offer too much in the way of value at all, that's why we like to look at the lower leagues where many wouldn't even think of having a bet often & there is certainly value to be had!

Aston Villa vs Norwich City

You wouldn't be marking this game down as a glamour fixture for the Premier League but it does have an interesting story as Villa manager Paul Lambert faces off against his former employers who he left rather acrimonious circumstances in the summer. Neither side are going too well with just one win each although Norwich's came last weekend with a shock win at Carrow Road over Arsenal & that has helped put them onto 6 points compared to Villa's 5, this is a game both sides will feel they can win.

(Ron Vlaar looks & plays the part of dominant central defender for Villa)

The two teams are the joint lowest scorers in the league, along with Sunderland who've played one less, with 6 goals apiece & that lack of cutting edge is meaning relegation is a perilously realistic outcome this year. Villa signed Christian Benteke to help out in the goals department but he's managed just one (in their only win v Swansea) & Darren Bent has looked lost at times with the paucity of quality service that he needs to thrive. Norwich's problem going forward is their utter predictability & total reliance on Grant Holt to score their goals but the positive is that regardless of the fact teams know what his game is, it is still difficult to contain him & he's scored in their last three games.

On the positive side for both sides are they have decent keepers (Guzan & Ruddy) & Villa have a pretty sturdy defence with Ron Vlaar having come into the centre of defence & impressed as he's taken up the captaincy whilst Stilian Petrov has been out with serious illness. Matt Lowton has made the step from League One to the top flight look relatively easy & the Villa back four have managed to keep them in games longer than maybe they've deserved. All in all this looks like being a tight little affair & the bookies look to have got it wrong by making over, rather than under, 2.5 goals the shorter odds, back the unders in this game between sides who've combined to score just 12 goals in 16 league games.

Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City

Down in League Two, a local derby takes place as Cheltenham Town entertain Exeter City at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham are 4th currently whilst Exeter have faltered in recent weeks & have dropped down to mid-table.

(Kaid Mohamed fires one in for Cheltenham)

Cheltenham are in fine form & have won five or their last eight league games & only suffered one defeat - away at 5th place Bradford City. Their latest victory was Tuesday night as they came from behind to beat Plymouth Argyle 2-1 thanks to a winner from Welsh substitute Kaid Mohamed, that was his second in three games & he is closing on leading scorer Shaun Harrad who has five league goals so far. Cheltenham have produced their best football in front of their home faithful with 4 wins & a draw in 7 games & have won 3 of their last 4 scoring two in each match.

Exeter City started made a flying start to life in League Two with 5 victories in their first 7 league games but since then their form has been turned on its head with five defeats & only one win at bottom side Barnet in their last seven. A sole strike from evergreen forward Jamie Cureton at Dagenham & Redbridge the other night at least ended a run of three games without a goal.

Cheltenham will be expected to take advantage of a confidence hit Exeter side & continue their chase of league leaders Gillingham at the best price of 11/10 with Coral.

Brentford vs Hartlepool United

League One sees Brentford host managerless Hartlepool United at Griffin Park. Brentford are in 9th place after a solid start to the season whilst Hartlepool are rooted to the foot of the table.

(Brentford's star youngster Harry Forrester will fancy his chance of scoring against Hartlepool)

Brentford have been a Jekyll & Hyde side so far this season in terms of their home & away form - on the road they are winless with only five points from a possible 21 but at home they have been great with five wins out of seven matches. Clayton Donaldson & midfielder Harry Forrester have been in fine goalscorer form for the Bees with 10 goals between them & they will be relishing the prospect of facing a leaky Hartlepool defence.

Hartlepool's manager Neale Cooper resigned after a 2-1 defeat against Bury on Tuesday as they raked up their ninth league defeat of the season, there aren't really any positives for Hartlepool currently & already they face a hard slog to competitive this season. Their away form is awful with only one point from seven matches & they have been inflicted to a number of heavy defeats leading to a record of on average 2.29 goals shipped per game.

Brentford's terrific home form should continue at the expense of sorry Hartlepool team & they should be first on all punters accumulator lists this weekend at reasonable odds of 4/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Norwich City game at 11/10 (Various)
Cheltenham Town to beat Exeter City at 11/10 (Coral)
Brentford to beat Hartlepool United at 4/6 (Coral)

Arsenal Guns to Overpower Villa's Light Artillery

We're looking forward to this weekend's football action - there looks to be some tight games in the Premier League & we wouldn't be surprised to see an upset involving a relegation threatened team putting one over on a bigger club, QPR did it on Wednesday to bring up our 4-1 tip here on what were some decent midweek results for the team. We are going to try & continue the fine football tipping form with three selections for Saturday with one pick from the top tier & then two from our favourite division of League One. Good luck with all of your picks & our number one tip is to keep those accumulators small; the bookies love it when you hand over slips with 57 teams on. Try to forget about the dream money & you can instead give yourselves a chance of large, but not life changing, payouts on a regular basis!

(Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain looks a real class act for Arsenal)

Alex McLeish's pedestrian Aston Villa side face an unenviable trip to the Emirates to take on an in form Arsenal who seem to have really found their stride, especially since a disappointing run of one league win in 6 games at the turn of the year. Arsenal have been in fine form recently, playing the type of football that they've been renowned for over the years & have rattled off 6 league wins in a row plus nearly produced the comeback of all comebacks against AC Milan in the Champions League. Demolitions of Blackburn & Spurs at home have been complemented with impressive wins at tough places to travel to on the road, Liverpool, Sunderland & Everton have all been beaten with Wenger's men even getting a rare clean sheet against the Toffees on Wednesday night. Obviously Robin Van Persie is Arsenal's main man with the incredible amount of goals he's been scoring this year but the emergence of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has been a real boost & could prove critical as they strive to finish as high as possible & guarantee Champions League qualification. Villa look overmatched here, they've just two league wins in 9 in 2012 & they came against Fulham last weekend with a last minute winner & against the league's worst in Wolves, they've actually only lost 3 away games thanks to the containing setup that McLeish employs but also only have 3 away wins with a league high 8 draws. Arsenal have the game to combat sides that try to defend as they have so many technically gifted players who can find space & play balls through a defence & with Villa being so unproductive going forward it should mean that Sagna can bomb on to help out & ThomasVermaelen will provide a threat at set pieces - a real area of weakness for Villa this season. We think Arsenal will go all out in this one as they seek to maintain momentum & that means taking Evens for them to win by two clear goals or more seems a fair bet & we'll be on come 3pm on Saturday.

(Ronnie Moore has been all smiles since his return to Tranmere Rovers)

In League One, Tranmere Rovers host Exeter City at Prenton Park. Tranmere are in 16th position & are looking to pull away from the relegation zone whilst opponents Exeter are in the bottom two. Tranmere were on a winless run of 11 matches when gaffer Ronnie Moore returned to the club for his 2nd spell in charge, since then they are unbeaten & have won three of their last five league games with the latest being away to Rochdale in midweek. They have gained 71% of their points at home & their record there against sides in the bottom half is impressive with seven victories & no defeats in ten games. Exeter have struggled all season & they have lost five of their last six league games, they have the worst away record in the league where they've suffered 13 defeats in 19 games & have only picked up 10 points. They aren't the greatest side in the league but know how to take advantage of weaker rivals & we expect a resurgent Tranmere to continue their good current form at the expense of Exeter at evens.

(Gary Madine has been celebrating plenty of goals for Wednesday this season)

Staying in League One we find Sheffield Wednesday on the road down south as the face Leyton Orient in a game they will be determined to win in order to keep their chase for an automatic promotion spot on the rails. The Owls will have been mightily disappointed not to have beaten Walsall on Tuesday night but showed great resolve to come from 1-0 & 2-1 down to get a draw, they've been getting the goals since replacing Gary Megson with Dave Jones as manager & that could be key against Leyton Orient who the league's joint 2nd lowest scorers at home with just 18 goals in 18 matches. The experienced Ryan Lowe has forged a decent partnership with the tall youngster Gary Madine with them each grabbing a goal each in 3 of their last 4 games & they should be partnered up again here. Wednesday haven't lost in their last 6 games whereas the O's have won just 1 of 7 with that coming against Brentford who've won just 3 games since mid December & that tempers our concerns around Wednesday's away record with them having won only 8 of 19 away from Hillsborough so far this year. Wednesday should have too much quality about them & can nick this one despite some defensive frailties still existing, Orient don't have the firepower to exploit that as they rely heavily on veteran striker Kevin Lisbie, & odds of 5/4 about the Wednesday win look very tempting to us.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Aston Villa with -1 goal handicap at Evens (general)
Tranmere Rovers to beat Exeter City at evens (Skybet/Betfred)
Sheffield Wednesday to beat Leyton Orient at 5/4 (Coral)