Super Swans can ruin Bantams cup dream

We were scuppered last weekend by Brian Laudrup's very weakened team selection for his Swansea side against Liverpool & it served a reminder that you have to take in as much information up to the betting event as possible before laying down your hard worked for cash. Of course that does come with the caveat of it being relevant information, if you ever read or hear stats about how teams are 'bogey sides' or a player happens to have scored plenty of times against an opposing side then try to ignore this info that may have been gathered over several years of fixtures where personnel changes have taken place & are more to do with chance than true trends - beware 'trash stats'.

Blackburn Rovers vs Leeds United

This is an interesting game with two slightly erratic teams in terms of form who can both come up with good results & then  lose to sides you'd expect them to overpower but there's good reason to believe that Blackburn may be a bit of value against poor travellers Leeds.

(Grant Hanley can dish out some punishment for Blackburn against Leeds)

On away form only Leeds are 23rd in the Championship & they've conceded an average of nearly two goals a game (30 in 16) on the road & here they'll come up against the fearsome young forward Jordan Rhodes. Rhodes isn't top scorer this season in the Championship but he is surely the best forward & maybe the league's best player full stop - he's been lethal for years & will prey on any weaknesses in the Leeds defence. The Leeds defence really is quite young with no one aged over 26 in their regular back four & whilst keeper Paddy Kenny is experienced we've never been great fans of his & overall there's a little bit of a lack of quality back there.

Blackburn meanwhile have tried to do things about improving their defence, it's of course not been helped by various managerial changes but the replacement of Paul Robinson as the starting keeper is a sensible decision & Scott Dann & Grant Hanley are some clunking great centre backs who should thrive in this league with the right managerial team behind them. Leeds lost Robert Snodgrass to Norwich in the summer & striker Luciano Becchio followed him in the January window & it means that a little too much now rests on Ross McCormack's shoulders. The two sides are likely to have a good scrap in midfield but we can see Blackburn being more able to take the chances that arise & they should be a little more rested after playing on Saturday & Tuesday versus Leeds' Sunday & Wednesday schedule. With home advantage behind them Blackburn are the team to be on & the Lancashire side can go above their West Yorkshire rivals with a win at odds of Evens.

The League Cup Final - Bradford City vs Swansea City

Ahhhh, the romance of a cup final & the chance of some lower league underdogs coming up with a famous victory against a top flight side... nah, we're not having any of it! Swansea are a very good 'footballing' side with great passing ability & are one of the country's best at retaining possession, Bradford may have been able to give some unprepared teams a hard time at Valley Parade but they are surely lambs to the slaughter on the wide open spaces of Wembley against Laudrup's men.

(Michu can help Swansea celebrate their first major cup win on Sunday)

As we mentioned at the top we were stung by Laudrup's team selection last Sunday where he rested key players including Ashley Williams, Angel Rangel, Nathan Dyer, Wayne Routledge & super striker Michu, but it looks like it'll pay dividends with those players fresh & healthy for what has been described as the biggest game in the club's history. We personally don't see why there was any need to rest players for a game taking place a week later against opposition three leagues below, particularly as it wasn't like they were taking on one of the league's big hitting sides, but it was done & it will allow a performance here of high intensity from the start & Laudrup has indicated they will take the initiative.

It's been a pretty middling season for Bradford in the league & they'll be hoping for some more magic from their top scorer Nahki Wells & another inspired performance between the sticks from experienced keeper Matt Duke who was excellent in their quarter & semi final matches. It seems difficult though & we like Swansea on the handicap with a one goal deficit at odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes, they've managed two or more goal wins 6 times in the league this season against far better opposition & can out-pass & outplay the Bantams throughout here.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Leeds United at Evens (General)
Swansea City to beat Bradford City with -1 goal on the match handicap at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

Addicks & Terriers in a tricky tie but home wins elsewhere

We're back with more football picks as we look for another successful weekend, there are plenty of juicy ties to get your wagers on but we think that value is very thin on the ground in the Premier League so we've gone to the Championship & League One for our bets this Saturday. If you aren't doing so already make sure to follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button above or finding us on there & keep yourself notified of our fancies.

Charlton Athletic vs Huddersfield Town

We see an interesting game in the Championship with a resurgent Charlton coming up against fellow League One promotees Huddersfield who've performed with credit all season & currently sit in 8th place just outside the playoff places.

(Oliver Norwood is beginning to flourish under Simon Grayson's tutelage)

Three games ago Charlton were in 21st place & had only managed 3 wins from their first 14 games but they came up with a stupefying 5-4 victory over Cardiff after being two goals down & they've since won & kept clean sheets in the progress against Bristol City & Burnley with even their less than prolific striker Danny Haynes scoring in those games. Johnnie Jackson remains the key player in Chris Powell's team & he looks set to be joined in midfield by loanee from Arsenal Emmanuel Frimpong, the youngster is outspoken & rather reckless but has talent & could be just what Charlton need to toughen themselves up. Before their last 3 games Charlton had just lacked a bit of resiliance & bite, not being able to turn draws into wins & close losses into draws (5 of their 6 losses were by a single goal) - they still lack the goalscorer needed to push themselves right up the table unless Bradley Wright-Phillips can get himself going again.

Huddersfield have coped well after the sale of their young goal machine Jordan Rhodes to Blackburn, they've pretty much won the games you'd give them every chance in but fallen to stronger opposition which is helpful from a betting perspective as you can peg their form pretty accurately. The Terriers brought in a couple of Premier League youngsters in the summer in Oliver Norwood (Man Utd) & James Vaughan (Everton) & both have something to prove after not quite making it at their respective clubs & have performed well so far for manager Simon Grayson. They've also got proven Championship striker Jermaine Beckford on loan from Leicester & he's knocked in 3 in 6 games & Adam Clayton has rejoined his former Leeds manager & has added additional quality in midfield. Huddersfield are still a work in progress but they've room for improvement & they'll fancy their chances of taking something against Charlton with the improved squad they have at their disposal.

There is something alluring about both these teams' records with exactly 23 goals conceded & scored by each team & Charlton even have 23 points too, the Addicks look a little too short on the prices to back here but are on a roll so we can't take Huddersfield either & the best bet looks to be the draw at 9/4 with Boylesports. Neither side are high scorers (Charlton scored more than 2 in a game just once & Huddersfield only twice) & that increases the chances of a draw even more, look for this to be a terse affair.

Doncaster Rovers vs Scunthorpe United

In League One, Doncaster Rovers entertain Scunthorpe United at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster are in 4th place & only five points behind current leaders Tranmere Rovers with a game in hand whilst Scunthorpe are second from bottom.

(Doncaster winger David Cotterill has been in storming form this year)

Doncaster under the management of Dean Saunders have recorded ten victories from their 18 league games & have won their last two against Portsmouth & Carlisle United. Their 3-1 win Tuesday night was described by Saunders 'best we have played all season' & Welshman David Cotterill scored one & assisted two. He has been in fine form this season with six league goals & also provides the ammunition to striking duo Iain Hume & Billy Painter.

Scunthorpe lost at home to fellow strugglers Bury the other night & that put pay to a run of seven points from three league games. It was their best run of the season where they have amassed ten defeats & only four victories (against teams in 15th or lower) in their 19 league games. They heavily rely on Leon Clarke's goals (11 so far) but his efforts are usually undone by a leaky defence. They have only kept two clean sheets & have conceded one or more goals in their last 11 league matches.

Relegated from the Championship last year Doncaster should be too strong for their League One compatriots Scunthorpe & are available at evens with Stan James & Coral.

Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall

Elsewhere we like the look of Blackburn to end Millwall's unbeaten run of 10 games since the end of September (5 wins & 5 draws) when Rovers host the Lions at Ewood Park.

(Dickson Etuhu will help Blackburn win the midfield battle against Millwall)

Blackburn got their first win under new boss Henning Berg last week when running all over Peterborough with star striker Jordan Rhodes bagging himself a hat-trick, that could really light the fuse with Rhodes & the £8m man has to be feared by opposing defences. Blackburn have kept a remarkably strong squad together considering the unconventional way they are run so the players must feel they are being treated (or at least compensated) reasonably well. Millwall have their own impressive young striker in Chris Wood who joined from West Brom in the summer & he's scored 7 in 11 games. Millwall have looked pretty tough in recent weeks & gained an outstanding 4-1 win away to Nottingham Forest but we have a feeling that Blackburn are about to open up & show their class to the rest of the league from now on so odds of 11/10 for a home win look too big to leave alone - get on!

Selections:
Charlton Athletic vs Huddersfield Town to draw at 9/4 (Boylesports)
Doncaster Rovers to beat Scunthorpe United at evens (Stan James/Coral)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Millwall at 11/10 (BetVictor)

Right Wing Devils but still better than the Villains

We just love Saturdays at the minute with 7 winning bets from 8 main selections at odds of 11/5 (double of 4/5 & 8/11), 6/5, 11/10, 11/10, 8/11, 6/5 & Evens. We're always pretty selective with our tipping as we think that even if you're successful it does take something away when you put selections up every day but hopefully we can come up with another perfect set of picks on the day of the week every gambler loves best! Remember you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above or finding us on there & by doing so you'll keep up to date with notifications about the blog & be able to join in the sports & betting conversation.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Sometimes it pays to keep things simple & this looks a penalty kick (hopefully not taken by Wayne Rooney...) for United here as they look to maintain their position at the summit of the Premier League table. Villa managed their second win of the season with a gutsy 1-0 win at Sunderland last week but this looks altogether tougher against Ferguson's side who've now won 8 of their last 9 in the league scoring 26 goals in the process & they should have too much firepower for Villa to compete.

(Along with Valencia, Rafael has been wreaking havoc down the right)

A lot has been made of how often United have fallen behind in games but Villa's offense is so impotent they may not trouble the back four that have now been playing together for some time since Vidic's injury & looked to have Arsenal's offense completely shut down on Saturday. United have actually scored plenty of early goals themselves with their new star Robin van Persie having scored in the first half in 5 league games already. Being on the road doesn't bother United either with them having won all 4 since their opening day loss to Everton & they should play on the front foot from the start here.

Villa have only scored more than one goal on one occasion & although their defence is pretty sound they've only played Everton & Spurs out of the teams you could consider the better in the league & their inexperienced full backs Matt Lowton & Joe Bennett could have their hands full with United's wingers & the overlapping Rafael & Evra. United are getting a lot of success scoring from crosses & passes from the wide areas but can hurt from the middle too. The 4/7 about a United win looks more than fair but for better odds look for them to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 11/8.

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City

Blackburn & their fans haven't had the easiest couple of years with their idiosyncratic Indian owners at the helm but the Rovers faithful got what they wanted with Steve Kean's sacking & now have their first home game with new boss & ex-player Henning Berg in charge, coming up against a pretty mediocre Birmingham side.

(Blackburn's 'old man' Morten Gamst Pedersen still has a quality delivery)

Lee Clark has come in as Birmingham manager but hasn't really got his ragtag squad firing whilst going forward & they rank joint 3rd worst in terms of goals with just 17 in 15 games & lost to bottom of the league Ipswich last Saturday. They did win at Bristol City on Tuesday but they were themselves in 23rd place & this a tougher assignment against a Blackburn side that retain a lot of good players considering the upheaval at the club. Their big summer signing was powerful young striker Jordan Rhodes & he's starting to hit his stride, scoring in 3 of their last 5 games. Rovers have also got a decent enough defence & rank joint 3rd best in terms of goals conceded - it would be better if they hadn't conceded 3 in consecutive games against Leeds & Bristol City (losing neither).

With what promises to be a full house at Ewood Park Blackburn should really push forwards in this one against Birmingham who have looked woeful at times (particularly the 5-0 loss to Barnsley & the recent Ipswich game). Even with losing to red-hot Palace & drawing once getting 2-1 up against Huddersfield, Rovers are still in the playoff places whilst Birmingham languish close to the relegation zone so take the 21/20 for a Blackburn win.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Aston Villa HT/FT at 11/8 (Stan James)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Birmingham City at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)

Rovers can pile more misery on Lacklustre Liverpool

The football just seems to keep going this week & we have had a look through this Tuesday's fixtures to come up with three bets that have a little bit of value about them. Think about this before placing your bets, how are a side that have less points than their rivals in 2012  in dreadful form 11/10 to win away yet another side that are psuhing for a title, with plenty more points & better form than their opponents 7/5 to win away? Sometimes it seems that the bookies do get it wrong & we have a duty as punters to take advantage - the results on an individual day may not come off but if you keep doing the right things you can turn a long term profit.

(Blackburn defender Grant Hanley will hope to keep Liverpool's misfiring strikers at bay)

You might not hink that it's possible that a side playing at home that have won twice as many league games in 2012 as their opponents could be 11/4 to win but that's precisely what we see as Blackburn Rovers face Liverpool at Ewood Park. To be fair it isn't difficult to have won twice as many as iverpool as they have just 2 league wins since the turn of the year & remember that they came against an absolutley dreadful Wolves side & Everton when the Toffees rested plenty of players, the Reds couldn't beat a thoroughly out of form Aston Villa at home on Saturday & facing a physical Blackburn side is not ideal just three days later. Liverpool have created chances in pretty much every game they've played but with Kuyt & Carroll at the sharp end plus Luis Suarez who doesn't seem to have packed his shooting boots along with his dribbling past 3 players at a time boots they are unlikely to start converting those chances anytime soon. Blackburn are obviously no great shakes & sit in the relegation zone but they've had 5 home wins which is as many as their rivals here & have some real quality going forward with Yakubu at the front end supported by the classy Junior Hoilett in midfield & they've looked better at the back since managing to ship out unhappy players, Ryan Nelsen & Chris Samba. Rovers held firm against champions-elect Manchester United for 80 minutes last Monday & were only stopped from scoring by some inspired David De Gea goalkeeping. Blackburn have to bounce back from a lame display against West Brom on Saturday but it's worth chancing at odds of 11/4 against this Liverpool side who look likely to finish bottom of the betting handicap table & who are looking like they could even finish in the bottom half if results aren't forthcoming & quick about it too!

(Goalscorer Ched Evans has 26 league goals & 7 in his last 5 games for Sheffield United)

In League One, Sheffield United travel to Spotland to face Rochdale, United will be looking for all three points to go back ahead of City rivals Wednesday into the second automatic promotion spot whilst Rochdale are rock bottom. United have won their last four league matches in a row & in striker Ched Evans they have a player bang in form having scored at least one in each of his last five games. The Blades are unbeaten in their last seven games & on the road they have won three of their last four with victories over Hartlepool, Notts County & Brentford. Hosts Rochdale are on the verge of relegation to League Two & have lost three of their last four league matches with the latest being a 3-1 defeat away at Yeovil Town, they've conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven games & at home they have lost two & drawn two of their last five. We expect Sheffield United at the general price of 5/6 to leapfrog above rivals Wednesday with a fifth consecutive victory at the expense of a poor Rochdale side.

(Reading's Mikele Leigertwood has 4 goals from midfield this season & 2 in the last 3)

In the Championship we see sutomatic promotion chasers Reading travel the short distance down South to face Brighton at their fantastic Falmer Stadium. Brighton are just about holding off a whole host of sides just below them for the final playoff spot but their recent form has not been great with just one win in their last 5 league games & 3 in 11, they'll be hoping that their better home form (11 wins from 20 games) will give them the advantage they'll need over red hot Reading. The Royals have won 12 of their last 14 & that has seen them rise right to the upper echelons of the league, they have a lot of attacking intent as can be seen by their 14 goals in their last 5 games & the January signing of Jason Roberts has really seemed to freshen up their front line. It won't be easy for Reading to win away here but they've recently stuck 4 in the back of the net away to Barnsley & West Ham which shows they'll come here to win & not settle for a draw which makes the odds against available a very good price. Brighton haven't been scoring enough this year with just 49 goals in their 41 games & their star striker Craig Mackail-Smith hasn't scored in the last 8 games, Reading should be able to play with freedom & odds of 7/5 for the potential champions is outstanding value.

Selections:
Blackburn Rovers to beat Liverpool at 11/4 (Skybet)
Sheffield United to beat Rochdale at 5/6 (various)
Reading to beat Brighton & Hove Albion at 7/5 (various)

Defending is like....... so last year!

We're back again seeking a bit of value in the weekend's games & think we've got three decent selections that should help you turn a profit before one of the biggest betting weeks of the year with the Cheltenham Festival starting on Tuesday. As ever if you aren't following us on Twitter already you can by clicking the follow button above or finding us @LikeBuyingMoney, it's a good way of keeping up to date with our latest posts & ask us any quetsions you want.

(Deadly duo Francois Zoko & Lee Miller will fancy their chances against a leaky Bury defence)

In League One, Carlisle United host Bury at Brunton Park. Carlisle are in 7th place & only one point outside of the play-off spots whilst Bury are down in 15th position. Carlisle have been in mixed form of late but this can be separated into excellent home form & difficulties on their travels, in front of their own fans they are unbeaten in their last 13 league games & have won eight of these. They have two decent strikers in Francois Zoko & Lee Miller who have scored 14 of their 21 combined goals at home & are a major threat to a Bury side who have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 16 games. Bury are struggling of late and have lost five & drawn four of their last nine league games & suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday night, on the road they have lost their last three & five of the last six. We expect Carlisle on their own patch to easily outscore a struggling Bury at a general price of 5/6.

(Yakety Yak don't talk back - Yakubu can feast on a dreadful Wolves' defence)

We refuse to change a proven winning tactic & that means that we are going to again oppose Wolves, this time in a relegation six pointer with fellow strugglers Blackburn Rovers, who they host at Molineux. Both teams sit on 22 points & in a game like this there can sometimes be a risk that both teams get paralysed by the fear but with with both sides having defensive woes & at times reasonable attacks, particularly with Blackburn & their main man Yakubu, there should be an emphasis on attacking football here. Blackburn have been able to name the same back four in their last 3 games since taking a beating at the Emirates & although they aren't great that is a positive & they have won against QPR & drawn with Villa whilst facing a somewhat inevitable loss away to Man City. Wolves have much bigger problems, they left out skipper Roger Johnson at Fulham & took a 5-0 beating that could have been worse, Johnson then turned up to training on Monday morning too inebriated to be of use & has been fined. Wolves have continuing injury problems in midfield with Karl Henry the latest to be injured & Dave Edwards still unlikely to be fit & they may have to look to the 21 year old David Davis who has one club appearance to his name  was just recalled from Chesterfield. Morten Gammt Pedersen, Junior Hoilett & Yakubu have enough quality to worry most sides & we fancy Blackburn to outscore an increasingly desperate Wolves side who have to pick themselves up from a crushing defeat & have won only once in 13 league games, odds of 11/5 for Rovers look very tasty.

(Gaffer Andy Hessenthaler is looking to guide the Gills to a fifth straight victory)

Gillingham entertain Crewe Alexandra at the Priestfield Stadium in a League Two clash, there are five points between the two sides as they both chase a play-off spot with Gillingham 8th & Crewe 10th. The Gills have overcome a difficult spell at the turn of the year & are in great form currently with four league wins in a row, three of these wins have come at home where they have had a good record all season with 10 victories from 17 matches & only 3 defeats. Visitors Crewe have drawn their last four games with the last three ending 1-1, of late they have only picked up two points out of a possible 12 in their last four away games with defeats to Barnet & Southend. We believe that Gillingham will be too strong for Crewe at evens.

Selections:
Carlisle United to beat Bury at 5/6 (various)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at 11/5 (BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Gillingham to beat Crewe Alexandra at evens (various)

Notts County's New Manager Syndrome can continue

Another weekend of football action is upon us & we're hoping to carry our recent form through for a football tipping title push after three of three up last weekend & then a nice midweek pairing coming up trumps to make it a nice period of winners. We might be getting ambitious though as our picks today include an 18/1 chance to break a 100% home record but fortune favours the brave & all that. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & we'll let you know about our latest posts & answer any questions you may have, good luck!

(Can Notts County's new man in charge Keith Curle continue his winning start?)

In League One, Notts County entertain Chesterfield United at Meadow Lane. Notts County are 10th just five points off the play-off places whilst Chesterfield are 23rd & in a relegation battle. Keith Curle, new manager of the Magpies, won his first game in charge on Wednesday night against one of the league's real form sides in Stevenage & their current form is good with three wins in their last four & only one defeat in their last six league games - at home this season they have won eight out of 15 games & only been beaten twice. Opposition Chesterfield have struggled all season especially on the road where they have suffered ten defeats in their 16 away matches, only once in these games have they stopped the opposition scoring and they have conceded on average over two goals per game. Notts County can prove too strong for a struggling Chesterfield side at a best price of 10/11 with Coral.

(Loanee Alex Macdonald has 3 in 3 for Plymouth)

In League Two, Plymouth Argyle host Dagenham & Redbridge at Home Park, Plymouth are in 21st position & Dagenham are rock bottom so three points for either side will be huge. The Pilgrims have had a tough season off the pitch so far but seem to be putting together a run of points of late & last weekend they won away at Accrington Stanley 4-0, in their last six league matches they have won two, drawn three & suffered only one defeat. At home Plymouth are unbeaten in their last four matches; beating Burton & drawing against promotion hopefuls Crawley Town & Southend United as well as Barnet. Visitors Dagenham have suffered five defeats in their last six league games & their latest game saw them thrashed 5-0 by Cheltenham Town, on the road they have lost ten of their fourteen games; conceding 25 goals in the process. We expect Plymouth to continue their recent good form at the expense of Dagenham at a best price of 11/10 with Boylesports.

(We might be relying on Paul Robinson having a good game v City - oh dear)

Manchester City take on Blackburn Rovers at the Etihad where they have won all 12 games that they've played in the league so far this season, it therefore might seem fanciful to think that Blackburn a team just two points off of the bottom of the league could come here & end that streak but there are reasons to believe they're a value bet in this one. City haven't dropped points in the league at home but a 1-0 loss to Liverpool in the Carling Cup here last month has made them realise they aren't impervious & their form since Christmas hasn't been quite up to the very high standards they set before. Of course now Yaya & Kolo Toure are back from the Africa Cup of Nations that gives the home side a boost as will the outstanding Carlos Tevez if & when he makes his return & that may see them get back to some high quality play that has been missing in games against West Brom, Sunderland, Liverpool, Everton & Villa since 25th December. For the most part City have still got the results needed & that's seen them stay two points clear in the title race but Blackburn are a team capable of causing an upset as seen when winning 3-2 at Old Trafford. Rovers score goals & plenty of them with 37 in 25 so far but they've also conceded more than any other side & with Chris Samba likely to leave soon he won't be involved & they've missed the departed Phil Jones too. At the other end of the pitch for Rovers Yakubu offers obvious quality as does Junior Hoilett & Gamst Pedersen & they'll look to give City's defence problems. Blackburn have had a two week rest since last playing whereas City have impressively taken care of Porto over two legs in the Europa League, that means they have momentum but Blackburn will be resolute & rested here & Steve Kean has had time to develop a plan to shock the league leaders. Of course the most likely result is a City win & if they score early it could be a rout, but as we saw against United Blackburn have the physical game to unsettle classier sides & at a huge 18/1 are worth taking a risk on to win here.

Selections:
Notts County to beat Chesterfield United at 10/11 (Coral)
Plymouth Argyle to beat Dagenham & Redbridge at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Blackburn Rovers to beat Manchester City at 18/1 (BetVictor)