Formula One returns after the summer break & the early practice sessions saw weather much the same as our weather back home.
Spa-Francorchamps is one of the drivers' favourites & is usually an exciting watch with its mix of changeable weather conditions, sweeping corners & propensity for accidents, safety cars & general chaos.
That doesn't mean we're looking for an outsider at a huge price to take the race win but the likes of Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg at tasty prices of 16/1 and 25/1 to make the podium are worth a small punt.
Sebastian Vettel & Mark Webber are the favourites to win the race but I suspect McLaren will be strong & 7/4 for a McLaren to win the race looks like a value bet to me, & even 5/1 for a Ferrari to come home in front might be worth a small flutter - you could back both (dutching) and still turn a small profit if it doesn't work out for the Red Bulls.
And while we're hunting for value, Mark Webber at between 4/1 and 5/1 to take another pole position is worth a look as he held the upper hand over Vettel before the break even if starting at the front has not helped him overly as when the lights go out, he tends to head backwards.
bwin offer an interesting market on whether Red Bull (18/19), McLaren (11/4) or Ferrari (11/1) will get both of their drivers into the top three in qualifying. However, I fancy the 29/10 on offer for any other outcome - with both Fernando Alonso & Lewis Hamilton far stronger in qualifying than their team-mates, & the threat of some bad weather around, a mixed up front of the grid is entirely possible.
Selections:Neither Red Bull, McLaren or Ferrari to get both cars into top three of qualifying at 29/10 (bwin)
Mark Webber to take pole at 5/1
A McLaren to win the race at 7/4
Michael Schumacher / Nico Rosberg to finish in the top three at 25/1 & 16/1 respectively
By John Pennington of www.lunchwatchman.com for Like Buying Money follow on twitter @jspennington
Showing posts with label Formula 1. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Formula 1. Show all posts
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Cross your palms with Silverstone
Valencia wasn't the most entertaining race Formula 1 has ever produced and we now move from the new to the old as the F1 circus moves to Silverstone.
There have been plenty of changes made to the circuit in the last two years and this year will see the start/finish straight moved as well as the new pit complex which will provide the drivers with a new challenge; albeit one they will come to terms with reasonably quickly during the practice sessions.
Without sounding like a broken record, there is only one man to beat in qualifying and we once again take Sebastian Vettel at 1/2 to leave his rivals in the shade.
Although the rule change banning blown diffusers will hurt the Red Bulls, they should still be strong enough to be the class of the field and 1/2 for a Red Bull to be the race winner also looks like an attractive bet.
It's time for Lewis Hamilton to make some headlines on the track for the right reasons and even if there is a genuine possibility of him moving on from McLaren, he is professional enough to put that to one side and put in a strong performance in front of his home fans. Back him to reach the podium at 4/6, he should score points at the least but at cramped odds of 1/7 its impossible to back.
Nico Rosberg enjoyed a podium finish here last year and with Mercedes showing some strong form, not to mention Schumacher beginning to show his class, we expect Rosberg to step up and score points at 4/11, responding to a couple of strong races from the seven-times world champion.
Our outsider to watch this weekend, and taking into account weather forecasts that predict some rain around is Jaime Alguersari, who has been in decent form recently and could be a good bet to make it to the points at 11/4.
One more thing to look out for and if you're into your in-running betting, then Jenson Button is available at 12/1 to win the Grand Prix in most places. In changeable weather conditions, he steps up, so look to back now, and lay it off at potentially much shorter prices if it rains.
Selections
Vettel to take pole at 1/2
Red Bull as winning car at 1/2
Hamilton to make it on to the podium at 4/6
Rosberg to score points 4/11
Alguersari to score points at 11/4
Button to win the race at 12/1 but look to lay at shorter prices if rain comes
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
There have been plenty of changes made to the circuit in the last two years and this year will see the start/finish straight moved as well as the new pit complex which will provide the drivers with a new challenge; albeit one they will come to terms with reasonably quickly during the practice sessions.
Without sounding like a broken record, there is only one man to beat in qualifying and we once again take Sebastian Vettel at 1/2 to leave his rivals in the shade.
Although the rule change banning blown diffusers will hurt the Red Bulls, they should still be strong enough to be the class of the field and 1/2 for a Red Bull to be the race winner also looks like an attractive bet.
It's time for Lewis Hamilton to make some headlines on the track for the right reasons and even if there is a genuine possibility of him moving on from McLaren, he is professional enough to put that to one side and put in a strong performance in front of his home fans. Back him to reach the podium at 4/6, he should score points at the least but at cramped odds of 1/7 its impossible to back.
Nico Rosberg enjoyed a podium finish here last year and with Mercedes showing some strong form, not to mention Schumacher beginning to show his class, we expect Rosberg to step up and score points at 4/11, responding to a couple of strong races from the seven-times world champion.
Our outsider to watch this weekend, and taking into account weather forecasts that predict some rain around is Jaime Alguersari, who has been in decent form recently and could be a good bet to make it to the points at 11/4.
One more thing to look out for and if you're into your in-running betting, then Jenson Button is available at 12/1 to win the Grand Prix in most places. In changeable weather conditions, he steps up, so look to back now, and lay it off at potentially much shorter prices if it rains.
Selections
Vettel to take pole at 1/2
Red Bull as winning car at 1/2
Hamilton to make it on to the podium at 4/6
Rosberg to score points 4/11
Alguersari to score points at 11/4
Button to win the race at 12/1 but look to lay at shorter prices if rain comes
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
Thursday, 23 June 2011
European GP - Valencia (24th - 26th June)
One thing is for certain. This weekend's European GP in Valencia is unlikely to be as eventful and exciting as the previous instalment in Montreal. You won't get any bookmaker giving you odds on that. Nor should you be seeking them, to be honest.
What can we expect as the F1 circus heads to Europe? We could well see McLaren match Red Bull in terms of race pace once again as the circuits share some similarities and Woking's finest are showing improvement but we expect Championship leader Sebastian Vettel to once again lead the way in qualifying, although short odds 8/13 he's too good for anyone right now.
Fernando Alonso has been talking up his chances this week and he will be strong at one of his two home races. Back him for at least a points finish (1/6) and even a podium (4/6) looks a strong possibility, particularly as he is coming off a rare DNF in Canada - he is nothing if not consistent and will be one to watch. He will feel that a repeat of Monaco is more likely than Canada - and so do we.
Renault have brought a new rear wing to Europe and they believe it will bring with it an improvement in performance. With both Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov now settled into the team and driving well without pulling up too many trees, we're recommending that you take the 7/5 on offer with bwin for a double points finish, particularly if they show good pace in the early practice sessions.
One more thing to look out for, particularly if the weather is changeable, is the price of Felipe Massa. He is a huge price to win (anything from around 20/1 to 50/1, which given the car he is in and his performance in Canada, is too high) and might be worth a punt which you can lay off during the race should he start mixing it with the leaders and his odds start to come in. A word of warning, however. we tried this a couple of seasons ago in Bahrain and he immediately spun off.
Selections -
Back Vettel to take pole at 8/13 3pts
Back Alonso to take a podium at 4/6 2.5pts
Back both Renaults to claim points at 7/5 2pts
Back Massa to win (anything from 20/1 - 50/1) but look to lay this off in-running or even after qualifying if he performs well 1pt
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
What can we expect as the F1 circus heads to Europe? We could well see McLaren match Red Bull in terms of race pace once again as the circuits share some similarities and Woking's finest are showing improvement but we expect Championship leader Sebastian Vettel to once again lead the way in qualifying, although short odds 8/13 he's too good for anyone right now.
Fernando Alonso has been talking up his chances this week and he will be strong at one of his two home races. Back him for at least a points finish (1/6) and even a podium (4/6) looks a strong possibility, particularly as he is coming off a rare DNF in Canada - he is nothing if not consistent and will be one to watch. He will feel that a repeat of Monaco is more likely than Canada - and so do we.
Renault have brought a new rear wing to Europe and they believe it will bring with it an improvement in performance. With both Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov now settled into the team and driving well without pulling up too many trees, we're recommending that you take the 7/5 on offer with bwin for a double points finish, particularly if they show good pace in the early practice sessions.
One more thing to look out for, particularly if the weather is changeable, is the price of Felipe Massa. He is a huge price to win (anything from around 20/1 to 50/1, which given the car he is in and his performance in Canada, is too high) and might be worth a punt which you can lay off during the race should he start mixing it with the leaders and his odds start to come in. A word of warning, however. we tried this a couple of seasons ago in Bahrain and he immediately spun off.
Selections -
Back Vettel to take pole at 8/13 3pts
Back Alonso to take a podium at 4/6 2.5pts
Back both Renaults to claim points at 7/5 2pts
Back Massa to win (anything from 20/1 - 50/1) but look to lay this off in-running or even after qualifying if he performs well 1pt
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
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