3.20 - Champion Chase
Lets get this out of the way first - Sprinter Sacre is a monstrous horse in this two mile division & we're not keen to take on Henderson's wonder horse here, but there is possibly some value to be had in the 'without the favourite' market & that's what we'll concentrate on.
(Sprinter Sacre looks nigh on unbeatable in the Champion Chase)
Sizing Europe heads the without Sprinter Sacre market at a top price of evens & it's fair enough that he should as a two-time festival winner, first off in the Arkle & then following up (as many Arkle winners do) in this race two years ago. Some reckoned Sizing Europe to be unfortunate when losing narrowly to Finians Rainbow last year when short of room as they omitted the final fence & Sizing's form since has been impeccable since with two Grade One wins & three Grade Twos from 5 starts & a couple of those victories came over 4 furlongs further suggesting a relative stamina test (with soft conditions) will not be a problem. The key to winning the race without Sprinter Sacre however may lie in not taking that horse on at all & instead concentrating on getting that 2nd spot - it will be hard for Andrew Lynch not to at least try to take on Sprinter Sacre as he sits on a past Champion Chaser & that could mean this one gets tired before the end & the value could lie elsewhere.
Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire has looked impressive at times this season but it was hard not to be disappointed with his last run at this track when finishing just 4th behind Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase & with very similar conditions in this race we have to look for another to finish 2nd. Mail de Bievre has only run once in the UK since 2009 after moving to Tom George's stable from France after previously being a bumper horse with Alan King but that run was one that was full of promise after going exceptionally well for a long way before tiring against Gold Cup prospects Silviniaco Conti & The Giant Bolster in the Denman Chase at Newbury. It certainly seemed like a step back in distance was what was needed for this one but dropping back a full mile isn't easy & they'll go a fair clip in this one, conditions however will help & the ground will be typical of the type it's run on in France, with a bit of market support we're going to side with Mail de Bievre to chase the favourite home at odds of 6/1.
(Mail de Bievre can plough through the soft ground to chase the winner home)
Wishfull Thinking ran a poor race at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase just after Christmas but either side of that has won well in soft conditions at this distance here at Cheltenham when slamming inferior rivals & then when beating some useful types including French Opera (giving that one 6 pounds) with a rousing finish, going away, at Newbury. The race here should be run to suit & Richard Johnson can ride his usual waiting race & pick off rivals as they tire towards the end of the race, Wishfull Thinking is a two-time Cheltenham winner already but is maybe not a big enough price to consider as value when you exclude the favourite. The horse crashed out dramatically at the 4th fence last year, wiping out a photographer (we were posted on the rails directly opposite & got a great view!), & isn't always the most fluent jumper so is just a little too risky a proposition.
2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
Another red hot favourite runs in the novices hurdle over 2m4f with Pont Alexandre heading the market at top odds of 7/4 & it's difficult to do down the chances of Willie Mullins' horse that won a Grade One over the distance on debut & then followed up with a facile success again over the distance in a Grade Two. Both of those wins came in heavy ground & Pont Alexandre made all so there appear to be no fears with regards tactics but we are reluctant to get too sucked in when the horse doesn't appear to have beaten any rivals of particular note.
(The Twiston-Davies's will be hoping The New One can win the Neptune)
We were at Cheltenham when The New One was narrowly headed by At Fishers Cross in a trial race for this in January & the form of the race looks rock solid with the pair pulling clear of two-time Grade Two winner Coneygree & the winner of the race now heads the market for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. The New One was maybe unlucky to lose that last race as he was only headed late on & had little time to try to battle back, he'd already won another two trial races for this, one in a class two here & another when smashing the field in a Grade Two at Warwick. Sam Twiston-Davies will need to be more patient with his charge in this one than he was when beaten by At Fishers Cross but with Pont Alexandre looking likely to be a target to aim at The New One can be delivered late & outbattle his less experienced rival, odds of 9/2 for a horse proven in conditions look decent.
Taquin Du Seuil is certainly a worthy opponent too as he's only been beaten once in his British racing career & that was by the potentially very high class My Tent Or Yours. Rule The World & Chatterbox are other big contenders but Puffin Billy was well beaten by Melodic Rendezvous last time & looks like he may be one to avoid for the time being.
Selections:
3.20 - Mail de Bievre to win without Sprinter Sacre at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Boylesports)
2.05 - The New One to win at 9/2 (Paddy Power)
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