Followers of the blog at last year's festival were rewarded with some nice priced winners in top races as we picked out Finians Rainbow (9/2) in the Champion Chase & Riverside Theatre (5/1) in the Ryanair plus the strongly advised bankers of Big Bucks (4/6) & Sprinter Sacre (10/11) who made those prices look hugely generous! Kumbeshwar (each way at 14/1) also picked up place money in the final race of the meeting & it meant winning bets in 5 of the 10 races we looked at over the 4 days. We'll be following a similar format this time around with picks for each of the feature races each day & another race or maybe two - with 27 races you can't expect to find winners in all of them & some races are best avoided altogether! We'll be going for quality over quantity with proper write ups & reasons behind our selections.
3.20 - Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle looks to be another great race this year with 4 of the top 5 in the betting all re-opposing after taking part in the 2012 edition, Rock On Ruby won by nearly 4 lengths that time but is 3rd favourite here behind multiple Grade One winner Hurricane Fly & our favourite horse Zarkandar.
(Hurricane Fly would be a popular winner but he's not for us I'm afraid)
Hurricane Fly of course demands maximum respect after winning so many races in the top grade but we haven't changed our tune since strongly wanting to oppose last year, the Grade Ones he's repeatedly won (often with ease) have been lacking in quality & depth. In 'the Fly's' last ten races, outside of the two Champion Hurdles, the field sizes have been as follows 5,5,6,5,4,3,5 & 5 & the opposition has been nowhere near the standard of the field he'll face on Tuesday. He looked a little fortunate to win his first race of the season when Go Native fell at the last & his other races this year haven't been too competitive although he's won well. We didn't think much of the 2011 Champion Hurdle that Hurricane Fly won & we think if you take a look at the horses he beat that day you'll agree that none of them are or have been true top 2 mile hurdlers with most either stepping up in distance since or moving to chasing or simply not being able to compete against the current crop. There don't appear to be too many excuses for Hurricane Fly finishing 3rd in last year's race when he was well beaten & only two horses as old as him, 9 years, have won the race in the last 30 runnings - at a top price of 2/1 & with the ground looking to be coming up soft which will blunt his turn of foot we feel he's to be avoided & will be laying for a place at short odds.
Rock On Ruby won well last year with the previous two champions in behind (Hurricane Fly 3rd & Binocular 4th) plus Zarkandar was in 5th, it was by far the best performance Rock On Ruby had ever put in & whilst we liked his profile last time (advised in a forecast with Zarkandar) his form since hasn't been so great. Well beaten when stepping up in distance whilst trying to follow up at Aintree & then on seasonal debut by Zarkandar & Grandouet he gained a victory last time he won in the 32red hurdle at Doncaster last time out but looked likely to be beaten by Darlan before that one's fatal fall at the final hurdle. Harry Fry's charge should put in a bold display to hold onto his title but will find it hard to turn around the form of the International Hurdle.
(Zarkandar - mastering Rock On Ruby & Grandouet here in December can follow up in the big one)
We've been keen on Zarkandar ever since his debut when he won the Grade Two Adonis hurdle in smart style & then seemed to relish the Cheltenham hill when winning the Triumph on only his second outing & putting some smart types, including Grandouet, in their place. Last season was a more difficult one for Zarkava's (brilliant Arc winning filly) brother as Paul Nicholls took some time to get him to the track & although winning impressively in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a troubled preparation meant that the Champion Hurdle came a little too soon to show him at his brilliant best but the way that he made up ground after being far behind at the final hurdle was eye-catching. He fell at Aintree next time but has done everything right this year, winning when not fully tuned up & giving plenty of weight away on his first run of the season & then winning against Grandouet (again) with Rock On Ruby well behind, last month's win at Wincanton was strightforward enough & should have put him spot on fitness-wise. Zarkandar is surely the best battler in the lineup & the Cheltenham hill suits his strengths, along with the juice in the ground it all looks to be pointing towards Paul Nicholls' first 'real' Champion Hurdle winner (Rock On Rucby was trained by Harry Fry at a satellite yard) & odds of 7/2 look fair.
Grandouet hasn't managed to get back onto the track since the International Hurdle & that tempers enthusiasm somewhat but we still feel he's the biggest danger to the selection, coming from the powerful Nicky Henderson stable & looking a better prospect than Binocular who's always been a bit of a bridle horse & looks another a bit long in the tooth at 9 years old.
1.30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle
The Festival's curtain raiser will be met with the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' at the start & then the action gets underway, we've been thinking we may oppose the red hot favourite My Tent Or Yours in the buildup, purely on value grounds, but the closer we've got & the more we've studied, the more difficult he looks to beat.
(My Tent Or Yours can leave his rivals trailing in the distance)
Melodic Rendezvous has already won a Grade One at Sandown & slammed Puffin Billy at Exeter last time, who looked a prospect himself up to that point, & has outstanding bumper form too (finishing 2nd in the Punchestown Champion Bumper behind Champagne Fever). We're somewhat put off by the fact the Sandown race looked a little weak for the grade & (as mentioned in our followers blog) we've heard a whisper that there has been a virus scare with the horse & it's enough to put us off. (Melodic Rendezvous was withdrawn on Monday after a late (cough cough - we knew on Friday) bad scope)
Two Irish raiders look the chief threat to the selection with Un Atout unbeaten & coming from the awesome Willie Mullins stable, Jezki who's undefeated over hurdles & already an impressive two-time Grade One winner. Un Atout is all about potential with only two hurdle races under his belt & has been a short odds on favourite for both races, won impressively in customary heavy Irish ground, that means the ground should suit here but we don't know whether those two races will have prepared it for this rather more demanding test & we think you'll see the best of this one in future seasons. Jezki though looks a super horse already & has already done enough to suggest he'd be challenging for favouritism in a different year, he's beaten another contender here, Champagne Fever, well & that form looks solid judging on both horses subsequent defeats of Bright New Dawn who Jezki beat further than his rival did. With four hurdle wins already & smart form shown Jezki looks nearly a certainty to be placed & with William Hill offering 5 places on the race that could be a near enough risk free each way bet.
My Tent Or Yours though looks something else, Henderson's charge would have been well fancied if he'd lined up in the Champion Hurdle after his incredible victory in one of the season's most competitive & valuable handicaps where he gave weight away to all but two of his rivals & slammed them with consumate ease. That win was off a mark of 149 & you'd have thought he had a stone in hand of the handicapper that day which would already make him good enough to win this race in most years, he also has smart bumper form after finishing 2nd in Aintree's championship race & has taken that form to a higher level now hurdling. Softish ground shouldn't hold any fears even though surprisingly beaten on heavy at Newbury just after Christmas - that was a blot on his copybook but if you can forgive that the recent form looks top notch. At odds of 7/4 My Tent Or Yours can provide a nice winning start to Cheltenham Festival 2013.
Selections:
1.30 - My Tent Or Yours to win at 7/4 (General)
3.20 - Zarkandar to win at 7/2 (General)
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