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Sunday 21 October 2012

Monday Night Football - Lions can keep it close in Chicago

This week's Monday Night Football is NFL action only as there is no English football as there are midweek European & lower league fixtures instead, that means we can concentrate on the NFC North divisional match up between the Detroit Lions & Chicago Bears.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

This looks to be a really exciting game with the Detroit Lions offense that coming into this week was ranking 2nd overall in yards gained per game & 2nd in passing yards behind the Patriots & Saints respectively. That high powered Detroit offense is coming up against a Bears defense that ranks 3rd overall in yards given up & 1st in points given up a game with a miserly average of just 14.2 scored against them in 5 games so far. The Bears have lost just once so far & are strong favourites against the 2&3 Lions but there is reason to believe this could be a tighter contest than some are giving credit.

(Michael Bush is a huge weapon when Chicago get down near the goal line)

The Bears' victories have all come against teams with either neutral or losing records & they haven't really had to face any top quarterbacks other than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers & in that one they were thoroughly outpointed 23-10. Chicago's real strength on defense is against the run & also in creating turnovers, they've got a league leading 13 interceptions so far & that will be a worry for Detroit as although Matt Stafford is throwing for plenty of yards he has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4). Stafford really needs to be on his game because it seems unlikely that the run game will support him too much as they have a pretty ordinary running back unit currently being led by Mike Leshoure. A big positive for Stafford his offensive line which has been performing pretty well in pass protection & should help to keep him upright against the Bears defense that likes to get after the quarterback & has had tackle Henry Melton keep on improving from last year with 4.5 sacks already.

The Bears are getting close to being a Super Bowl team but, whatever they may say, are being held back at the quarterback position with Jay Cutler merely average & maybe not having the right mentality to make the step up he needs. We really like Chicago's versatile running back Matt Forte who is a great target in the pass game as well as consistently averaging over 4.5 yards per rushing attempt but he does struggle to get the ball in the end one which is where Michael Bush comes in - he'll be consistently used in short yardage situations & is overpriced at 6/5 to score a touchdown at anytime. The Lions' defense isn't bad but they don't come up with enough stops in the red zone & that makes Michael Bush an attractive selection in this one.

(Chris Houston is Detroit's defensive back most capable of making a big play)

Detroit just love to throw the ball & they have the weapons to do it with great success as Matt Stafford has an accurate & powerful arm plus the league's best receiver to pass to in the indomitable Calvin Johnson who uses his excellent physique to dominate cornerbacks. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew & receiver Nate Burleson are Stafford's other options & are both pretty dependable meaning the Bears can't just concentrate on Johnson, they should be able to score enough points to be competitive here, they've only failed to get at least 20 points this year when disappointing badly against the Vikings. The Lions haven't got a great secondary but they only really have Brandon Marshall, who's having a great season, to worry about int he receiver department as no other Bear has reached even 200 receiving yards, we do like cornerback Chris Houston (5 interceptions in 2011) & he could be the man to step up & make a big play defensively. We think the Lions have a great chance of getting a win here but we'd rather take them with a very useful 6.5 point lead on the handicap - they'll be feeling great after last week's tough win against the Eagles.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Chicago Bears with +6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (Various)
Michael Bush to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Bet365)

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