After Frankel's stunning performance in the Sussex Stakes it is difficult for any other race to live up to those heights, of course having a substantial sum of money on a participant always helps to liven things up which is exactly what we plan to do in the 2nd race at Goodwood on Friday.
The 2nd on the card is a 7 furlong Listed race & has a horse with huge potential running for the in form Jeremy Noseda (5 winners from last 14 runners) in the form of Western Aristocrat. The Mr Greeley colt is the least exposed of the field having had just 3 runs, winning his maiden last year impressively, then winning a handicap off a mark on just his 2nd start & comeback run this season, in its last race Western Aristocrat got to within a length of Tuesday's Lennox Stakes winner Strong Suit. The form looks good enough in itself but with the promise of much more to come and perfect underfoot conditions the 13/8 currently available will not be around for long - it wouldn't surprise us to see this as the best backed horse all day tomorrow. The opposition is creditable and running at the right level in a Listed contest but Western Aristocrat could be onto bigger and better things in the near future with Goodwood's Group 2 Celebration Mile being his next entry.
We already advised Green Destiny for the Golden Mile and there's no reason to desert him after Modun's very creditable and somewhat unlucky 2nd on Tuesday. The other horses in the race are unlikely to be good enough and the bigger question is whether he can find the gaps necessary, jockey Adam Beschizza will almost certainly be under instruction to leave it late but I'd expect him to sweep down the outside rather than risk getting stuck behind horses. 11/4 is a great price when I believe that it is effectively betting that he won't find trouble in running.
Our final selection runs in the 1st and can get us off to a flyer. Indian Days wins have all come on ground described with firm in the description and will get ideal conditions here, he's a two-time course winner and has already won a Group 3 this year beating Poet in the process who then went on to run Workforce close at Sandown. Indian days was slightly disappointing the next twice but that was running in a Group 2 just two weeks later & then when given an impossible task in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. An 8 week rest will help and being by Daylami is likely to be getting better with age, the 16/1 available is insultingly large. The horse to beat is last year's winner Redwood, a horse that has run well during its Globetrotting over the last year, winning a Grade 1 at Woodbine & finishing 2nd in the Hong Kong Vase & Sheema Classic. Redwood got blitzed by Crystal Capella last time but might be sharper for that run however the prices dictate that Indian Days is the one to side with.
Selections
2.00 Goodwood - Indian Days each way at 16/1
2.35 Goodwood - Western Aristocrat at 13/8
3.10 Goodwood - Green Destiny at 11/4
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Glorious Goodwood Day 2
Wednesday sees the match up that the racing world have been waiting for when Henry Cecil's freakishly talented Frankel takes on Richard Hannon's star miler Canford Cliffs. It's a fascinating contest and much depends on how the classic generation form matches up against the older horses and how the race is run.
Lets get the 2 outsiders in the race out of the way 1st of all, Rio de La Plata won a Group 1 as a 2 year old but his subsequent form doesn't match up having only won 3 races since, a conditions event and a Listed & a Group 3. Freddy Head doesn't tend to travel abroad with his horses unless they have a chance but his Rajsaman has to be looking for 3rd place money, he's won a Group 2 beating the better at 10 furlongs Byword and that form isn't strong enough here.
Frankel was a brilliant 2 year old and won the 2000 Guineas in incredible front running style earning him the title of joint-top rated horse in the world with a mark of 130 alongside Australian sprint star Black Caviar. Tom Queally gave him a strange ride last time and Frankel appeared to tie up towards the end of the race when Zoffany got within a length. He has dismissed of his rivals in striking fashion although there have to be question marks over the 3 year olds overall quality in the miler division, other than Frankel little else looks that great. However Strong Suit winning in good style on Tuesday ties in with Frankel beating Zoffany, next time out Zoffany was 2nd & Strong Suit 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat. Richard Hannon will know exactly how strong that form is as he trains Strong Suit & Canford Cliffs, a horse he has described as the best he's trained. Until beating Group 1 harvester Goldikova last time there probably hadn't quite been a performance from Canford Cliffs from the absolute upper echelons. He's won 5 Group 1's in a row but the Irish 2000 wasn't great, he beat the good Dick Turpin next time, Rip Van Winkle next in this race last year was talked about as brilliant but Rip was probably better over 10 furlongs and only ever delivered one really world class performance - when beating Paco Boy here in 2009.
It's a tough decision but when you take into account that Canford has to give 8 pounds to Frankel as an age for weight allowance that just tips the tables in Frankel's favour. The fact that Frankel is versatile with regards tactics will also help, hopefully Tom Queally won't be put off giving him a front running ride due to the criticism he received last time - I had no problem with him going from the front but Queally has to judge the pace better rather than going off like a maniac. Canford Cliffs will have to be at his absolute best to turn over Frankel and we haven't even seen whether Frankel will allow a horse to pass him if it comes to a battle, my suspicion is he won't.
Later in the day at 4.55 is a race that is an altogether less auspicious affair but it can be the source of great joy to those that heed the following advice. Lutine Bell has been running consistently well off of marks in the 90s in good handicaps, last time finishing behind the useful Noble Citizen whilst conceding 5 pounds. Noble Citizen subsequently finished 3rd behind the dangerously well handicapped Bronze Prince whilst running under a 6 pound penalty. From my reckoning Lutine Bell should have a rating of just about 96 which would make him the best in this race with arguably the best recent form. The ground should have dried today and will do further tomorrow which plays strongly into our favour. Being drawn in stall 8 should allow jockey Hugh Bowman to settle him in behind and I fully expect to see Lutine Bell surge to the front within the final half furlong, 7/1 is the best price available currently and that seems a great price.
Selections:
3.10 Goodwood - Frankel at 4/5 with William Hill, 8/11 elsewhere
4.55 Goodwood - Lutine Bell at 7/1
Lets get the 2 outsiders in the race out of the way 1st of all, Rio de La Plata won a Group 1 as a 2 year old but his subsequent form doesn't match up having only won 3 races since, a conditions event and a Listed & a Group 3. Freddy Head doesn't tend to travel abroad with his horses unless they have a chance but his Rajsaman has to be looking for 3rd place money, he's won a Group 2 beating the better at 10 furlongs Byword and that form isn't strong enough here.
Frankel was a brilliant 2 year old and won the 2000 Guineas in incredible front running style earning him the title of joint-top rated horse in the world with a mark of 130 alongside Australian sprint star Black Caviar. Tom Queally gave him a strange ride last time and Frankel appeared to tie up towards the end of the race when Zoffany got within a length. He has dismissed of his rivals in striking fashion although there have to be question marks over the 3 year olds overall quality in the miler division, other than Frankel little else looks that great. However Strong Suit winning in good style on Tuesday ties in with Frankel beating Zoffany, next time out Zoffany was 2nd & Strong Suit 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat. Richard Hannon will know exactly how strong that form is as he trains Strong Suit & Canford Cliffs, a horse he has described as the best he's trained. Until beating Group 1 harvester Goldikova last time there probably hadn't quite been a performance from Canford Cliffs from the absolute upper echelons. He's won 5 Group 1's in a row but the Irish 2000 wasn't great, he beat the good Dick Turpin next time, Rip Van Winkle next in this race last year was talked about as brilliant but Rip was probably better over 10 furlongs and only ever delivered one really world class performance - when beating Paco Boy here in 2009.
It's a tough decision but when you take into account that Canford has to give 8 pounds to Frankel as an age for weight allowance that just tips the tables in Frankel's favour. The fact that Frankel is versatile with regards tactics will also help, hopefully Tom Queally won't be put off giving him a front running ride due to the criticism he received last time - I had no problem with him going from the front but Queally has to judge the pace better rather than going off like a maniac. Canford Cliffs will have to be at his absolute best to turn over Frankel and we haven't even seen whether Frankel will allow a horse to pass him if it comes to a battle, my suspicion is he won't.
Later in the day at 4.55 is a race that is an altogether less auspicious affair but it can be the source of great joy to those that heed the following advice. Lutine Bell has been running consistently well off of marks in the 90s in good handicaps, last time finishing behind the useful Noble Citizen whilst conceding 5 pounds. Noble Citizen subsequently finished 3rd behind the dangerously well handicapped Bronze Prince whilst running under a 6 pound penalty. From my reckoning Lutine Bell should have a rating of just about 96 which would make him the best in this race with arguably the best recent form. The ground should have dried today and will do further tomorrow which plays strongly into our favour. Being drawn in stall 8 should allow jockey Hugh Bowman to settle him in behind and I fully expect to see Lutine Bell surge to the front within the final half furlong, 7/1 is the best price available currently and that seems a great price.
Selections:
3.10 Goodwood - Frankel at 4/5 with William Hill, 8/11 elsewhere
4.55 Goodwood - Lutine Bell at 7/1
Monday, 25 July 2011
Glorious Goodwood Day One
Goodwood's premier meeting starts on Tuesday and promises to be the West Sussex venue's best for some time with races being hotly contested by high quality horses. There are some decent prospects running over all 5 days but we'll start with the 1st day plus an extra selection for Friday before the value disappears.
Trying to pick the winner of an 18 runner handicap may seem like a tough way to start but the favourite for the 1st race looks a hot proposition. Modun finished a very good 2nd to the highly impressive Green Destiny at York yet has only been raised 2 pounds by the handicapper, that should leave him a few pounds well in as Stoute's charge looks well up to winning Listed and minor Group contests, William Hill offer a standout 7/2 but that is unlikely to be available for long - take it! Green Destiny runs on Friday in the Golden Mile and is also available at 7/2, once Modun wins tomorrow that will disappear quickly, the form of their previous race looks rock solid and Green Destiny will be very tough to beat.
We'll attempt to follow up in the next race, the Group 3 Gordon Stakes with another of Sir Michael Stoute's horses Fiorente. It finished 2nd to Saturday's King George hero Nathaniel last time and although Nathaniel may have been slightly fortunate with Workforce veering across the track rather than going forwards that form is still mighty strong. Fiorente has the perfect pedigree for 1 mile 4 furlongs over softish ground, being by the German super stallion Monsun out of a Pilsudski mare. Slumber is next in the betting but there may be more to fear from Mark Johnston's Namibian that won over 2 miles last time and Silvestre De Sousa may try to nick it from the front, Fiorente should pick him off.
Backing trainers or jockeys blind is a sure way to the poor house, it often seems that casual punters forget that it is the horse doing the racing rather than the man - however it can make sense to back several of a trainers horses in a single day if they already have a decent chance because trainers can develop their horses to peak fitness at similar times.
Selections:
2.00 Goodwood - Modun at 7/2 with William Hill
2.35 Goodwood - Fiorente at 11/10
Plus Friday in the Golden Mile - Green Destiny at 7/2
Trying to pick the winner of an 18 runner handicap may seem like a tough way to start but the favourite for the 1st race looks a hot proposition. Modun finished a very good 2nd to the highly impressive Green Destiny at York yet has only been raised 2 pounds by the handicapper, that should leave him a few pounds well in as Stoute's charge looks well up to winning Listed and minor Group contests, William Hill offer a standout 7/2 but that is unlikely to be available for long - take it! Green Destiny runs on Friday in the Golden Mile and is also available at 7/2, once Modun wins tomorrow that will disappear quickly, the form of their previous race looks rock solid and Green Destiny will be very tough to beat.
We'll attempt to follow up in the next race, the Group 3 Gordon Stakes with another of Sir Michael Stoute's horses Fiorente. It finished 2nd to Saturday's King George hero Nathaniel last time and although Nathaniel may have been slightly fortunate with Workforce veering across the track rather than going forwards that form is still mighty strong. Fiorente has the perfect pedigree for 1 mile 4 furlongs over softish ground, being by the German super stallion Monsun out of a Pilsudski mare. Slumber is next in the betting but there may be more to fear from Mark Johnston's Namibian that won over 2 miles last time and Silvestre De Sousa may try to nick it from the front, Fiorente should pick him off.
Backing trainers or jockeys blind is a sure way to the poor house, it often seems that casual punters forget that it is the horse doing the racing rather than the man - however it can make sense to back several of a trainers horses in a single day if they already have a decent chance because trainers can develop their horses to peak fitness at similar times.
Selections:
2.00 Goodwood - Modun at 7/2 with William Hill
2.35 Goodwood - Fiorente at 11/10
Plus Friday in the Golden Mile - Green Destiny at 7/2
Friday, 22 July 2011
Looking for Excellence at Ascot
A highly competitive card at Ascot on Saturday sees the UK's premier middle distance race and has an incredible roll call of winners including some greats such as Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Dancing Brave & Daylami. There is only one horse in this running of the race with claims to being a great and that is last year's impressive winner of the Derby & Arc Workforce. There is strong opposition today including St Nicholas Abbey who was red hot favourite for last year's 2000 Guineas only to flop and not be seen until April this year where he was beaten at long odds on by the Triumph hurdle runner up, Aidan O'Brien has coaxed him back to form winning at Chester then following up by beating Midday in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, however Midday has been arguably disappointing this season & we're happy to take him on. It can be argued through runnings against So You Think that Rewilding has the beating of Workforce but that would be too literal a reading of the form, both raced against the Australian star over 10 furlongs but Workforce much prefers this stiffer 2 furlong further distance and certainly had the measure of the Godolphin challenger in the Derby beating him by 7 and a half lengths. The rain has come and that will definitely be in Workforce's favour - expect to see Ryan Moore deliver him with a strong run some way out and a distance win.
The opener is a female Jockey's race and Ryan Moore's younger sister can make it a good start to the day for the family with a win on the talented Captain Ramius. Winner of its 1st 3 races including a Listed contest on its 3rd start back in 2008 he has since struggled running off of high handicap marks, however the last time he was successful was over 7 furlongs in good to soft off a mark of 87, today are exactly the same conditions but off a handicap mark of 86 this spells win to us - especially with a price of 12/1.
Our final selection is in the 24 runner Heritage handicap at 3.50, Ascot is a track where some horses just don't seem to perform so its good to have a course and distance winner on our side and we have that in Excellent Guest. He has form that ties in with the vastly improved top weight in the race Hawkeyethenoo and the swing in weights he receives gives him a chance to at the very least get closer. Excellent Guest is highly consistent and an each way bet at the 10/1 available with William Hill seems to be a bet with minimal risk but potential high rewards.
Selections:
Ascot 1.30 - Captain Ramius 12/1
Ascot 3.50 - Excellent Guest ew at 10/1 with William Hill
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce 11/8
The opener is a female Jockey's race and Ryan Moore's younger sister can make it a good start to the day for the family with a win on the talented Captain Ramius. Winner of its 1st 3 races including a Listed contest on its 3rd start back in 2008 he has since struggled running off of high handicap marks, however the last time he was successful was over 7 furlongs in good to soft off a mark of 87, today are exactly the same conditions but off a handicap mark of 86 this spells win to us - especially with a price of 12/1.
Our final selection is in the 24 runner Heritage handicap at 3.50, Ascot is a track where some horses just don't seem to perform so its good to have a course and distance winner on our side and we have that in Excellent Guest. He has form that ties in with the vastly improved top weight in the race Hawkeyethenoo and the swing in weights he receives gives him a chance to at the very least get closer. Excellent Guest is highly consistent and an each way bet at the 10/1 available with William Hill seems to be a bet with minimal risk but potential high rewards.
Selections:
Ascot 1.30 - Captain Ramius 12/1
Ascot 3.50 - Excellent Guest ew at 10/1 with William Hill
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce 11/8
The Keys to success
Today sees some good action at the UK's best two racecourses - Ascot during the day & York for an evening meeting. We have a couple of selections that should take all the beating plus another that will potentially blow its rivals out of the water.
Starting with York in the 7.30 Fillies Listed contest we find Sajjha running for Saeed bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori is making the trip up to York to steer her home following his one ride at Ascot. bin Suroor started the season slowly and Godolphin's other trainer al Zarooni has somewhat left him in the shade with Blue Bunting's Classic successes but the stable is back in the groove now with 5 winners from 21 runners and another 6 in the top 3 in those races. Sajjha went off favourite for a Group 2 at Ascot last time and should have the class and turn of foot to put these rivals to the sword.
At Ascot we're hoping that trainer Roger Charlton has a good day and take Primevere to land what is another Listed Fillies race in the 3.20, she's top rated and was unlucky to run into the useful Nahrain last time. This is a weak race for a Listed race and her only real danger comes from Winter's Night and maybe Soorah, already having shown the level of form necessary she is by Singspiel and so should be improving with experience in what is just her 5th start.
Charlton should definitely be celebrating after the 3.55 2 mile handicap where his runner Keys runs under a 6 pound penalty against some nice enough types, unfortunately being nice enough will not be enough against this beast of a horse. Jamie Spencer teams up again with Keys just 6 days after showboating his way to victory having long looks around and a few concillatory words with the jockeys pumping away on the horses behind. Keys would have been a serious contender for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper before injury ruined those plans and is 10 pounds well in today - the handicapper put him up 16 pounds for that latest victory but today he only has the penalty to contend with. Charlton wouldn't turn him out quickly without good reason, take heed and get your savings on this one, odds against shouldn't stand up for long.
Selections:
7.30 York - Sajjha Evs
3.20 Ascot - Primevere 7/4
3.55 Ascot - Keys 6/5
Treble on above pays 12/1
Starting with York in the 7.30 Fillies Listed contest we find Sajjha running for Saeed bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori is making the trip up to York to steer her home following his one ride at Ascot. bin Suroor started the season slowly and Godolphin's other trainer al Zarooni has somewhat left him in the shade with Blue Bunting's Classic successes but the stable is back in the groove now with 5 winners from 21 runners and another 6 in the top 3 in those races. Sajjha went off favourite for a Group 2 at Ascot last time and should have the class and turn of foot to put these rivals to the sword.
At Ascot we're hoping that trainer Roger Charlton has a good day and take Primevere to land what is another Listed Fillies race in the 3.20, she's top rated and was unlucky to run into the useful Nahrain last time. This is a weak race for a Listed race and her only real danger comes from Winter's Night and maybe Soorah, already having shown the level of form necessary she is by Singspiel and so should be improving with experience in what is just her 5th start.
Charlton should definitely be celebrating after the 3.55 2 mile handicap where his runner Keys runs under a 6 pound penalty against some nice enough types, unfortunately being nice enough will not be enough against this beast of a horse. Jamie Spencer teams up again with Keys just 6 days after showboating his way to victory having long looks around and a few concillatory words with the jockeys pumping away on the horses behind. Keys would have been a serious contender for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper before injury ruined those plans and is 10 pounds well in today - the handicapper put him up 16 pounds for that latest victory but today he only has the penalty to contend with. Charlton wouldn't turn him out quickly without good reason, take heed and get your savings on this one, odds against shouldn't stand up for long.
Selections:
7.30 York - Sajjha Evs
3.20 Ascot - Primevere 7/4
3.55 Ascot - Keys 6/5
Treble on above pays 12/1
Wednesday, 20 July 2011
Big Chris leaves India trembling
World number 1 test team India play England in a four test series, starting this Thursday at the home of cricket. This mouth watering series will be played in front of a huge international audience, due to the popularity of the game in the sub continent and let’s not forget the added spice of Sachin Tendulkar, in what is likely to be his last tour of England searching for his 100th international century.
The last time both teams met on English soil in 2007, a close rain affected three match series was won 1-0 by India.
India arrive in England on the back of a 1-0, three match series victory in the West Indies (with a number of first choice players missing) and under the guidance of former England coach Duncan Fletcher.
For England, the summer really starts here after the dour 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka. The question is: Can England use home advantage to rise to the challenge of beating arguably the best assembled batting line-up in World cricket and reach the summit of the ICC Test rankings?
England would seem to have several factors in their favour for the series, the early swinging conditions with batsmen still adjusting to the vagaries of the infamous slope at Lords, plus the English-style pitches at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston will play into the hands of England’s seam attack. India don’t appear to have had a meticulous preparation for the series with only a three day match against Somerset where they performed poorly, Duncan Fletcher may be assuming that his experience in coaching England for several years already gives them enough of a tactical edge but it could take time for the team to acclimatise. Adding to India’s problems is the injury of Vivender Sehwag who is likely to miss the first two tests whilst continuing to recover from a shoulder injury, this coupled with Fletcher’s teams tending to start slowly, especially on foreign soil, means England have the chance to get off to a flyer.
Both teams’ strength comes in the form of their batting line-ups with strong openers and middle orders. Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott are difficult to get away from the crease and have been in impervious test form for the last year or so meanwhile for India Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Gautam Gambhir all averaging over fifty in test format. The strong batting along with the changeable British weather is likely to mean that the series will be close and there could be a couple of drawn matches if the bowling attacks aren’t in top form, picking a top batsman especially for the Indians is a tough prospect and the likely odds offer no stand out value.
In terms of bowling Chris Tremlett is the man in form for England with 15 wickets in the series against the Sri Lankans and has previous form against India taking 13 wickets in his debut series in the 2007, he has vastly improved since and can trouble them again with his extra bounce, so take the 3/1 available for top England bowler.
As we think the series could be a tight affair the key to winning lies in a quick start and England will have the advantage at Lords, combine this with their strong desire to reach the plateau of the ICC Test rankings and we think the value lies in backing England to win overall, starting with a win in the first test.
Selections
England to win the series at 5/4
England to win the 1st Test at 9/4
Chris Tremlett as top England bowler 3/1
Kumarbaz
The last time both teams met on English soil in 2007, a close rain affected three match series was won 1-0 by India.
India arrive in England on the back of a 1-0, three match series victory in the West Indies (with a number of first choice players missing) and under the guidance of former England coach Duncan Fletcher.
For England, the summer really starts here after the dour 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka. The question is: Can England use home advantage to rise to the challenge of beating arguably the best assembled batting line-up in World cricket and reach the summit of the ICC Test rankings?
England would seem to have several factors in their favour for the series, the early swinging conditions with batsmen still adjusting to the vagaries of the infamous slope at Lords, plus the English-style pitches at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston will play into the hands of England’s seam attack. India don’t appear to have had a meticulous preparation for the series with only a three day match against Somerset where they performed poorly, Duncan Fletcher may be assuming that his experience in coaching England for several years already gives them enough of a tactical edge but it could take time for the team to acclimatise. Adding to India’s problems is the injury of Vivender Sehwag who is likely to miss the first two tests whilst continuing to recover from a shoulder injury, this coupled with Fletcher’s teams tending to start slowly, especially on foreign soil, means England have the chance to get off to a flyer.
Both teams’ strength comes in the form of their batting line-ups with strong openers and middle orders. Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott are difficult to get away from the crease and have been in impervious test form for the last year or so meanwhile for India Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Gautam Gambhir all averaging over fifty in test format. The strong batting along with the changeable British weather is likely to mean that the series will be close and there could be a couple of drawn matches if the bowling attacks aren’t in top form, picking a top batsman especially for the Indians is a tough prospect and the likely odds offer no stand out value.
In terms of bowling Chris Tremlett is the man in form for England with 15 wickets in the series against the Sri Lankans and has previous form against India taking 13 wickets in his debut series in the 2007, he has vastly improved since and can trouble them again with his extra bounce, so take the 3/1 available for top England bowler.
As we think the series could be a tight affair the key to winning lies in a quick start and England will have the advantage at Lords, combine this with their strong desire to reach the plateau of the ICC Test rankings and we think the value lies in backing England to win overall, starting with a win in the first test.
Selections
England to win the series at 5/4
England to win the 1st Test at 9/4
Chris Tremlett as top England bowler 3/1
Kumarbaz
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)