Europe goes to war - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

For many followers of the flat the first Sunday in October brings the highlight of the year with the best middle distance horses from across Europe & often beyond meet to take turf racing's most prestigious prize at Longchamp in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. We've studied the form of the horses competing along with looking at the historical trends of the race to try to give you an insight into which horse can win this great contest.

(Reliable Man is looking for further success for connections)

It would be remiss of us not to point out that 3 year olds have dominated the race with 18 of the last 25 winners coming from the classic generation & it's easy to see why - the 3 year old colts receive 7 pounds from the older males & 5 pounds from the older fillies & mares, the 3 year old fillies get a further 4 pounds. At this timee of year the younger horses have matured considerably & these favourable terms are of huge benefit, of course many of the best horses are retired after their 3 year old careers meaningg that the older horses just aren't of as high a quality as their younger rivals. This year could be different with some very classy types having been kept in training including last year's impressive winner Workforce with the 2nd & 3rd also returning in japan's Nakayama Festa & the lovely filly Sarafina. Joining them is Aidan O'Brien's So You Think, his recruit from Australia has only competed in 10 furlong races since coming to the Northern hemisphere winning 3 Group One's  should be able to cope with these extra 2 furlongs - he came 3rd in last year's Melbourne Cup. So You Think's high draw from stall 14 is a huge worry though as getting in the right position in the race is key, Nakayama Festa & Sarafina are also drawn in the teens & it could be asking just too much to win the race from those draws.

Quick ground appears to be a worry for many of the contenders with Stoute concerned for Workforce & Reliable Man 's connections still unsure whether to run him or not. Reliable Man appears to be the one with impeccable credentials for the race having won a key trial in the Prix Niel beating the more fancied Meandre from Andre Fabre's stable with some authority. The breeding of Reliable Man is outstanding being by the fabulous Arc winner Dalakhani (Daylami's half brother) out of a Sadler's Wells mare, he should get the distance no problem & gets plenty of weight from his elders. There doesn't appear to be a great reason to think Meandre will turn the form around as 'the Man's' breeding suggests he should get better the further into his career he goes & looks all over a classic late season horse.

The other horse that interests us is the filly Galikova who will be looking to step out of her illustrious half sister, Goldikova's shadow. She gets all the allowances as a 3 year old filly and has excellent connections in terms of her trainer Freddie Head & triple Arc winning jockey Olivier Peslier. Galikova is open to all sorts of improvement, looks like she'll appreciate the distance & is following the Zarkava route to Arc glory. She beat some of the rivals she'll face today last time so she does have some form in the book, our chief concern would be whether she's quite tough enough to win here with a big field of top class sorts, it would require another step up but that's possible.

It's now possible to back in the race without fear of losing your stake if your horse is a non-runner & that makes it well worth while to back Reliable Man to storm to the winning line at odds of 12/1. We would suggest each way but if he truly can't handle the going he could end up nowhere but if he does handle it we're pretty confident he's the one to beat. We've backed in the antepost market at 29/1 but will lose our stake if de Royer-Dupre does withdraw him. We think the constant complaining about the ground by many of the trainers & owners is more designed to get Longchamp to water plenty rather than them actually withdrawing their mounts - this is the Arc after all, there is no other race quite like this!

Selection:
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Reliable Man to win at 12/1 (general)

Saints looking for heavenly result against Hornets

It's certainly been a full week of football action with a full round of Championship football & European competition throughout the week, it could be that those teams with strong squads or not competing during the week could have a little advantage come this weekend, we're looking ahead as usual to the best bets across the divisions.

(Million pound man Rickie Lambert will be hoping to lead his side to victory)

In the Championship, Southampton entertain Watford at St Marys. The Saints have taken the Championship by storm and are in pole position, winning six of their nine league matches. So far St Marys has hosted four league matches which have resulted in a perfect home record & 11 goals for the Saints. For Watford, a difficult start is no real surprise after a summer which saw them lose star players Danny Graham & Will Buckley without any real replacements plus Shaun Dyche stepping up from Assistant to Manager. We feel Dyche is still finding his feet as manager and his side's form is average in the league with only two wins in their nine games. Overall Southampton currently have the form forward players in Rickie Lambert & Adam Lallana who already share 10 league goals between them and we believe they will be far too strong for this average Watford side & provide punters with a banker for any weekend accumulators at the best price of 4/7.

In the Premier League there appears to be a standout bet on Sunday that has to be had on value grounds with Queens Park Rangers a huge 3/1 to beat Fulham at Craven Cottage. It's true that Fulham are tough to beat at home & they're unbeaten this season at the Cottage but they also haven't managed a league win yet with all 3 home games ending in draws. They travelled to Odense in Denmark just on Thursday night gaining a deserved 2-0 win with a couple of Andrew Johnson strikes but they fielded a pretty strong side & it isn't ideal to be facing a fresh & fit QPR side just 3 days later especially now the pressure is building to get a home win. We & many others have been impressed with a lot of QPR's play since they brought in players right at the end of the transfer window but at times they have lacked a cutting edge & certainly look a little weak in the striker department, DJ Campbell managed 13 in the top flight last year & could chip in with a few if he gets the game time. 3/1 for QPR to win implies they'll win one in four times this tie is played but that seems to underestimate them, alternatively for those wanting a little safer bet, bearing in mind they're playing Fulham who haven't won a league game this season, they can be backed at 15/8 to win in the draw no bet market with Stan James.

Down in League Two, we are expecting goals galore in the match between Port Vale and Rotherham. Vale Park has been the venue to see goals this season as 'The Valiants' have the best attacking record in the league at home scoring 13 but also on the flip side the 2nd worst defensive record conceding 11 goals so far. This has resulted in 24 goals this season in five league games at an average of 4.8 goals per game. Whilst on the road, Rotherham games have seen 21 goals in their five games at an average of 4.2 goals per game. Therefore we see no reason why these trends won't continue at the best price of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals and also for the more adventurous punters 21/10 is available for over 3.5 goals.

Elsewhere in the Premier League there looks to be another game that could be on the low scoring side in the Swansea City v Stoke City match. In the game in Wales' second city we have a matchup of two of the league's lesser lights who happen to have looked very solid defensively this season, it has been no surprise to see Stoke solid at the back, apart from the aberration of a 4-0 defeat to Sunderland, as they have plenty of experienced & physical defenders backed up by a top keeper in Begović. Swansea seem to have made one of the signings of the season in their unknown keeper Michel Vorm who has produced several top class performances, Àngel Rangel at the right back also deserves plenty of credit giving confidence to his centre backs. Swansea have struggled to score though apart from their 3-0 win against West Brom & Stoke's strikers don't inspire confidence with Peter Crouch having never looked like a prolific scorer & a prime example of how the current market has inflated transfer fees, on the other side of the argument is that he fits Stoke's style of play extremely well. All in all this game looks a potential candidate for being on last on Match Of The Day 2 & we're happy to pick under 2.5 goals at 4/6.

Selections:

Southampton to beat Watford at 4/7 (Coral)
Over 2.5 goals in the Port Vale vs Rotherham game at 4/5 (Bet365/Blue Square) or Over 3.5 goals at 21/10 (William Hill)
QPR to beat Fulham at 3/1 (General) and/or to win draw no bet at 15/8 (Stan James)
Under 2.5 goals in the Swansea City vs Stoke City game at 4/6 (Stan James/Blue Square)

Friday Night Football - From Rags to 'Ritchies' for Di Canio

Friday night sees a couple of lower league games that can get the weekend kicked off to a nice start, the football action seems to be coming thick & fast with the European action keeping busy through the week but until we get past the group stages it's still the weekends everyone looks forward to.

 

('Different Class' Matt Ritchie (in white) will be hoping to keep up his impressive form)

Four points separate Macclesfield (18^th) & Swindon (10^th) who meet on Friday night in League Two. So far this season both clubs have a similar league record, of the 5 games they’ve each played at home they’ve only each been defeated once whereas away from Moss Rose & the County Ground respectively each club has picked up just one victory. Gary Simpson’s Macclesfield were defeated by bottom club Plymouth last week thanks to two set pieces. Following the match Simpson suggested that changes to his team selection for the up & coming fixtures was likely. Swindon have been scoring plenty goals of late, including 4 in their last game against Barnet & 3 against pre season favourites Crawley Town. Midfielder Matt Ritchie has been the standout performer, after the Barnet victory Ritchie was described by manager Paulo Di Canio as ‘a different level’ & his delivery to the forwards as ‘different class’. Ritchie’s form alongside Scotsman Simon Ferry & summer signing Jonathan Smith should be able to provide Alan Connell & Mehdi Kerrouche (8 goals between them this season) the ammunition to hurt the Silkmen who could be without teenage defender Elliott Hewitt who is likely to leave the club shortly.

The other Friday evening League Two encounter pits two of the early pacesetters against one another, Southend take on Shrewsbury at Roots Hall. Southend come into the game on the back of 3 straight victories without conceding a goal. The Shrews themselves have been in good form winning 6 or their previous 7 league games. In Southend’s 5 league home fixtures to date there have been just 9 goals & in Shrewsbury’s 5 away games this term just 11 goals suggesting this one could be a tight affair against the sides separated by a solitary point. For that reason we think a small bet on no goalscorer at 10/1 complements a decent bet on under 2.5 goals at 10/11.

Selections:

Swindon to beat Macclesfield at 11/8 (Bet365 & Victor Chandler)

Macclesfield vs Swindon – both teams to score at 3/4 (Blue Square & 888sport)

Southend vs Shrewsbury under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (William Hill)
Southend vs Shrewsbury no goalscorer at 10/1 (William Hill)

Now for something strictly different…

It may not be that clever, but with viewing figures of up to 13 million, it’s pretty big. As the 9^th series of Strictly Come Dancing launches, can we call the outcome before we see the first fake tan go on the ballroom floor?

(Can Jason Donovan sparkle in this year's Strictly?)

It’s like this. You win Strictly because the viewing public root for you, that’s all. I’ve done some research on the fate of the previous 104 celebrity competitors over 8 competitions, and I reckon there are 4 key factors which significantly affect each celebrity’s chances of winning. When I’ve explained, I’ll give you my recommendations to win and lose.

Age.  The average age of all previous competitors is 40, but no-one over the age of 38 has ever won. Winner average age is 32. You can be too young as well as too old; there’s a specific window. Your general public is much more tuned into other equality and diversity issues - there’s no significant difference in chance of success between men and women or ethnic background - but age definitely matters. I’m giving the age window a nudge up a few years for Series 9 because there’s a more even, older spread overall, so I’m allowing Jason Donovan (43) a chance (he’s a perennial wide-eyed youngster to the adoring public anyway), but I’m eliminating 8 celebrities on age grounds alone. Sorry Nancy Del’ Olio, whatever you might claim, you’ve hit that glass ceiling.

Background. Fact: the most successful group of competitors by far are young BBC TV broadcasters. Ever since Angela Rippon tapped her papers straight, glanced archly to camera and slid her nylon-clad pins from under the desk to showdance with Eric and Ernie, the British public have been obsessed by the hidden talents of our newsreaders. There aren’t any in this season, so that opens the field. Young actors and singers do well, statistically better than sportspeople.  Think about it - performers train to put themselves across to others, whereas sportspeople train to be good at their sport. You do see nifty dancing from the rugby guys (fleet and strong) and the cricketers (smooth, great timing) but on balance I’d back a good looking soapie or popster.

Dancing ability. Which is uncertain at the moment and we could be surprised. But I wouldn’t back a guy over six foot three – despite their many advantages, the tall blokes just don’t give good Latin on the floor. Sorry Audley Harrison, sorry Dan Lobb.  From the trailers, Jason’s looking good, as is Harry Judd.  Holly Valance should be a dream team with the magnificent Artem Chigvintsev and Alex Jones looks good with professional partner James Jordan (who must be really hungry for the trophy by now).

The “ah” factor. Likeability really - that indefinable something that serves so well in any walk of life. Hint of a love story? Think about how many boxes Kara Tointon (series 8 winner) ticked last year, and she just couldn’t fail, could she. But you can’t overtly appeal for it – so Chelsey Healey doesn’t have it. Sweet boys with surprising flair will always do well (Tom Chambers, series 6; Matt Baker, series 7) - Harry Judd’s chances depend on this, so it could go either way. On paper, Robbie Savage looks better than Jason – but we all know how we feel about that. Holly and Artem? They will be great, but I just don’t think we want to see Artem win twice in a row and sweep another girl off into the sunset, it’s not polite. The “ah” factor is also responsible for keeping that comedy-element in; Russell Grant and Edwina Currie won’t go out straight away.

I’m going with Jason Donovan to win (at 9/2), well-loved, decent, all-round appeal and looks like he’s a good mover.  I think Alex Jones has a very good chance to make the Final 3 (around 16/1 on Betfair). First elimination? Which one will least make any kind of impression? I feel badly for him but I reckon at big odds it could be ex-tennis pro Dan Lobb who’ll duck out.

Good luck, and keep dancing….

Selections:
Jason Donovan to win outright at 9/2
Alex Jones to make the Final 3 at odds of around 16/1 on Betfair
Dan Lobb to be 1st Elimination at around 20/1 on Betfair

A big thanks for this contribution from one of our bosses Helen Stapleton! @HallStapleton on twitter

Superior Quality to show through in Midweek Matches

The weekend's football saw a slightly less manic weekend than last week & it was particularly subdued down in the Championship with just 15 goals in 11 games on Saturday & Sunday & plenty of draws, there will be a few teams hoping to impress their fans a bit more in the midweek games  we've picked out a couple of sides from the Championship & one in Europe that look superior to their opposition without that superiority being reflected in the available odds.

(Derby's top goalkeeper Frank Fielding returns & can keep Barnsley's strikers at bay)

Tuesday sees a full round of Championship fixtures including Derby County entertaining Barnsley at Pride Park. The Rams have made an impressive start to the season currently sitting pretty in 3rd spot & making a mockery of their 23 point handicap mark (as highlighted in our first ever post http://likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com/2011/06/201112-early-football-handicap.html). They have won six of their eight league matches including away at arch rival Notts Forest 2-1 despite having goalkeeper Frank Fielding sent off within the first 5 minutes. Visitors Barnsley are sat 2 points above the relegation zone and have drawn their last four league games but are struggling to score goals with only 6 goals registered so far. We believe Derby will have too much firepower in the form of Steve Davies & Craig Bryson & will outscore Barnsley at a reasonable price of evens.

Also in the Championship, 2008 FA Cup winners Portsmouth take on Darren Ferguson's Peterborough United at home, the clash pitting 14th place against 11th & is the first time these will have met in 9 years. The Posh visit Fratton Park having won one of their last five, in comparison Pompey have lost just once at home this season and their only defeats at home or on their travels have been by the odd goal (against West Ham, Hull and Brighton). Steve Cotterill's men are hard to break down and have conceded a measly two goals in 4 matches whereas Peterborough have only managed to find the net 3 times away from London Road, two of which came in a draw with Millwall, they have really been missing last year's top scorer Craig Mackail-Smith who's started well at Brighton. We think that the Hampshire based side will win this (available at 11/10), for those more adventurous Portsmouth can be backed to win to nil at 3/1 with Paddy Power.

In the Champions League on Wednesday, Shakhtar Donetsk welcome APOEL Nicosia to the Donblass Arena. Both sides are unsurprisingly top of their respective domestic leagues and in Champions League week one we saw 9 man Shakhtar beaten 2-1 in Porto after taking a early lead whilst APOEL recorded a 2-1 home victory against 10 man Zenit St Petersburg. Shakhtar's European success in recent years is based on their formidable home record; achieving four straight home wins in last season's competition before a quarter final defeat to eventual winners Barcelona (ending a 15-match unbeaten home record with 11 victories). There was little shame for Shakhtar in losing to last year's unbeaten in their league Portugese champions Porto & if they can maintain that sort of quality they can push for a knockout round place. Therefore with the game taking place on home soil & with their Champions League experience we expect Shakhtar to be a 'home banker' for any midweek accumulators at a best price of 4/9.

Selections:

Derby to beat Barnsley at evens (Victor Chandler)
Portsmouth to win at 11/10 (general) & to win to nil (vs Peterborough United) at 3/1 (Paddy Power)
Shakhtar Donetsk to beat APOEL Nicosia at 4/9 (Betfred & Victor Chandler)

Monday Night Football - Redskins to scalp the Cowboys

It's Monday Night Football again with a fixture a piece in the English Premier League & the NFL, these are hardly marquee matchups but should both be competitive games with Steve Bruce's difficult to break down Sunderland taking on Norwich & the Washington Redskins hoping to keep up their perfect start to the season with a visit to one of the big names of the NFL in the Dallas Cowboys.

(Can Sunderland's Connor Wickham help them sink Norwich City?)

In the English Premier League, Norwich entertain Sunderland at Carrow Road. Both sides have 5 points from 5 games and picked up their first victories of the season last weekend with Norwich winning at 10 man Bolton 2-1 and Sunderland thumping European travellers Stoke 4-0. We're expecting a tight encounter, this is backed up by the combined league stats of the two sides with 10 games played, 4 draws and 4 games decided by a single goal. With this in mind, Sunderland seem to have the bigger goal threat in the terms of Bendtner, Larrson and Gardner plus the potential of attacking options off the bench (Wickham & Dong-Won). Therefore we are backing Sunderland, using the safest option, Sunderland to win in the draw no bet market at 11/10.

(Washington's Tim Hightower rushing against the unrushable Steelers)

In the NFL game tonight we have two teams that can compete with most sides but have plenty of questions to answer with regards to certain areas of their game as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Washington Redskins in Dallas. The Cowboys did the business for us last week with a narrow overtime success against the 49ers but it came at a price as star receiver Miles Austin got injured quarterback Tony Romo went out of the game before returning to throw some great passes to complete the comeback. It turns out that Romo had not only cracked ribs but also a slightly punctured lung, yet it looks like the Cowboys are going to play him just a week later, it shows how bad they think backup John Kitna is! The Cowboys are basically a passing side with their backs Choice & Jones being pretty average, with Romo hurting, Miles out & Dez Bryant also somewhat doubtful it looks like they'll find it difficult to put points on the board. Washington are no great shakes themselves with quarterback Rex Grossman being the punchline to many a joke, however they've won both of their games this year & there is a feel-good factor about the side after a negative outlook before the season started. Grossman has actually performed well so far in their wins against the Giants & the Cardinals with receivers Gaffney, Moss & Davis all getting multiple receptions for decent yardage. They've looked productive in rushing with Tim Hightower having picked up 168 yards in the two games so far & he can continue to play well, he should be backed to score at anytime to add to his one touchdown already. The Redskins can be backed with a +4.5 point headstart but we think they can win this without & with odds of 7/4 available we should all take advantage of the Cowboys injury woes.

Selections:
Washington Redskins to beat the Dallas Cowboys at 7/4
Tim Hightower to score a touchdown at anytime in the Washington Redskins v Dallas Cowboys game at Evens or better (no prices available yet)
Sunderland to beat Norwich City in the draw no bet market 11/10 (Stan James/Ladbrokes)

Mister Music to hit the right notes

Sunday's aren't usually a great day for British racing but today we have a very nice meeting from the home of the Derby at Epsom Downs with some competitive handicaps & a conditions race with a seemingly underestimated favourite. We're hoping for more success than yesterday where a crawling pace did for Alanza's chances in the Sun Chariot Stakes & a strange ride gave Questioning little chance to get involved in the Cambridgeshire.

(Richard Hughes will be looking for multiple winners today)

At 2.30 we have a 4 runner conditions race where Mister Music looks like facing his easiest task for some time & can take advantage at odds of 5/6. Richard Hannon's colt won his 2nd start in good style before finihing 3rd in another 4 runner affair where subsequent Group 3 winner Crius was successful, he's then finished 4th in a Listed contest where the hugely promising Fencing won & in his latest race was just a neck behind yesterday's Group 2 Royal Lodge favourite Farhaan. That form has been good enough to attain a rating of 92 from the handicapper & the lack of a win seems less to do with attitude & more to do with the horses he's run into. Mister Music's opponents today don't look up to the same class with Hint Of Mint & Surrey Storm both finishing 3rd in very ordinary maidens at Chepstow & Lingfield respectively, both wuld need to improve massively to challenge our pick. David Simcock saddles Gabrial's Gift who should offer up some resistance after improving last time to land an auction maiden in some style after a positive  James Doyle ride, that form is still away off what will be needed if Mister Music runs to his level & an early bet is advised before the weight of money forces the price in.

At 3.35 we have a £15,000 handicap between some decent sorts that looks competitive on paper meaning we can find a good priced winner. Two horses in the race won last time out with Colour Scheme stepping up from 3 disappointing rns to win at Yarmouth & Ramona Chase gaining a deserved success at Goodwood after a string of creditable placings. A Yarmouth win isn't exactly great stuff though & Ramona Chase whilst having a positive due to being a course & distance winner has been unable to win all season off of marks around 5 pounds lower than today's new mark until last time. Godolphin's Con Artist seems underpriced for a horse having only its 2nd run of the year after disappointing off of this mark on its season debut back in May, that's now 4 months ago & it would be asking a lot to win this race, Bin Suroor has had only 2 winners from his last 46 runners in the past 2 weeks. Right Step is a classy sort & might be getting down to a realistic winning mark but finishes of 9th out of 10 & 18th 20 in his last two runs is offputting & we're much more interested in the claims of Roman Eagle. Roger Varian has his string in fine order with 8 winners from 30 runners in the past fortnight & his colt seems to be the horse with most potential for improvement having only had 2 runs this year & 5 in total, Those 5 runs include two wins & one was at Epsom in a two runner affair where he beat Cafe Elektric, a horse that has subsequently been running in big money races at Woodbine, Roman Eagle's runs this year have been just decent but that means we can take advantage of odds of 9/2 with Stan James for the only horse likely to be able to dominate this contest.

Selections:

2.30 Epsom - Mister Music at 5/6 (general)

3.35 Epsom - Roman Eagle at 9/2 (Stan James)

NFL Week 3 - Flying Falcons to make mockery of underdog status

The 3rd week of NFL action is upon us & there are some games that look like being highly competitive matchups & overs that look like potential massacres with some positive matchups for good teams, after our treble came up on last Sunday thanks to a Dallas overtime win, we're looking forward to this week's offerings.

 (Roddy White making a spectacular one-handed grab for the Atlanta Falcons)

The game that really stands out this week from a betting perspective is the NFC affair between the classy Atlanta Falcons & the promising Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We make our own handicaps early in the week between each team & then compare those with what the bookmakers are offering, for most games both our handicaps & the bookies' are similar but for this game we had Atlanta as 4.5 point favourites whereas they are available as 1.5 point underdogs. It doesn't seem to make sense when you consider the overall quality of the sides & last week's results where Tampa Bay managed a come from behind win against a poor Vikings side compared to the Falcons great win against the 'Dream Team' of the Philadelphia Eagles. Both sides have great quarterbacks with imposing Josh Freeman for the Bucs & Matt Ryan for the Falcons, the differnce is that Ryan has better targets with the awesome Roddy White now being backed up by speedy number 6 draft pick Julio Jones. At running back Michael Turner is a better back than Blount, offering himself up as a useful receiver as well as being a powerful runner, he can run well against the Buccaneers defense to help set up the passing game. Neither side have star filled defenses but they're pretty solid & it would be surprising if either side managed to blow this one open, even so Atlanta are confident picks at odds of 11/10 to win this one. Michael Turner offers such a threat through the air & on the ground & he should be backed at 5/1 to score the first touchdown.

The Houston Texans take on New Orleans Saints at the Superdome in a game between two high powered offenses with both sides having genuine Championship chances. Houston are unbeaten after taking advantage of the Colts without Manning & then beating Miami in a professional display whilst the Saints bounced back from a loss in the opening game against the Super Bowl champs the Green Bay Packers with a good win at home to Chicago. The Texans have looked good so far with Matt Schaub looking very accurate with 38 completed passes out of 53 attempts, connecting with star receiver Andre Johnson 14 times for nearly 200 yards. The worry offensively for the Texans was how they'd cope without the injured Arian Foster but Ben Tate has come in & looked good at running back, Foster returned last week but he'll likely be more involved here & the Texans have a highly dangerous offense through the air & on the ground.  The Texans will have to be good offensively as New Orleans can put up points just about anywhere with an elite quarterback in Drew Brees who has a rating of 114.9 after two games, he'll look to hit the versatile Darren Sproles, dependable Jimmy Graham & Robert Meacham plus the explosive big playmaker Devery Henderson. With so many options through the air they'll look to target that part of the game against the Texans who had a woeful pass defense in 2010, Houston have improved their defensive backs but this will be as tough a test as they can get. New Orleans have playmakers in defense with backs capable of making interceptions & running the ball back but with Schaub being so accurate he'll limit those opportunities for the Saints D & with a headstart on the handicap the Texans can at the least keep this close & should be backed at 10/11 with +4.

Elsewhere the Detroit Lions will be looking to make it 7 wins in a row after winning their last 4 in 2010 & being unbeaten so far this, they take on a Vikings side that look to be at their weakest for some time. Donovan McNabb has been a good player over his career but certainly seems to be on the slide in terms of his performances, in 2010 he only had 14 TD passes but 15 interceptions & his passer rating this year is 30th of 32 players qualifying (have to have thrown at least 14 passes). McNabb doesn't really have the targets to throw to & that means that the vikings have to rely on the future hall of fame running back Adrian Peterson heavily meaning that they become predictable, of course with Peterson's ability he can still gain yards & is a hugely potent weapon. They'll need AP to be at his best because the Lions offense is starting to click & when Matt Stafford is fit at QB they can get points especially against sides with average pass defenses & the Viking's defensive backs fit into that category. The Lions don't have a standout receiver but that means it's difficult for defenses to target one wide out & Stafford is happy to hit multiple targets for medium yardage, Jahvid Best has been offering up some decent performances in the running game helping the Lions are becoming a reasonable side. The Lions can make the most of being on a roll & even though this will be much tougher than theeir game against the Chiefs last week they can still overcome the handicap of -3 at 20/21.

Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 11/10 (Coral, Betfred & Paddy Power)
Houston Texans to beat New Orleans with +4 points at 10/11 (general)
Detroit Lions to beat Minnesota Vikings with -3 points at 20/21 (general)
Michael Turner to score 1st Touchdown in Atlanta Falcons v Tampa Bay Buccaneers game at 5/1 (general)

A Questioning attitude is a Winning attitude

One of the big betting days of the year is upon us with Newmarket's Cambridgeshire handicap over the Rowley Mile along with some very nice pattern races as well. We've got a couple of bets that should see us & you turning a decent profit.

The Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes over the mile is a fascinating affair with the high class & proven Sahpresa trying to win the race for the 3rd year in a row. Standing in Sahpresa's way are the last 2 winners of the Falmouth Stakes in Music Show & Timepiece plus a pair of up & coming 3 year olds from Ireland in Together & Alanza. Music Show started favourite for 2010's 1000 Guineas but she's rarely been able to show her best form & Timepiece has been more of a talking horse than one that does it on the track - her win in the Falmouth was a huge step up on her solid Listed race performances. Aidan O'Brien's filly Together has run to a very creditable level on nearly every start but her overall form figures are uninspiring when it comes to backing her with just 2 wins in 12, she came 2nd over course & distance earlier in the year in the Guineas & finished in the same place in the Irish version behind Misty For Me - at a bigger price than currently available she'd be a good each way proposition.

Sahpresa's best performances have come in this race especially in 2009 where she came with a storming late run to beat Ghanaati, last year was a similar story against a weaker field & she's since been kept to Group 1 company, albeit without winning. Sahpresa certainly has a turn of foot but she may have found another that can match & beat that in this race, John Ox has brought just two horses to the UK this year with both winning, his Alanza was one of those & she can keep that 100% record intact. Alanza lost her first two races this year but they were over an inadequate 6 furlongs & since then has won with impressive acceleration, winning two Listed contests & then a Group 3 where she won in a matter of strides, the short distance of victory not reflecting how impressive she was. There is no doubt a lot of improvement to come from her & at the odds available of 7/2 we'll be backing her to make the step up to the big time & win her first Group 1.

 (Questioning's rider William Buick can steer him home into 1st place)

In the Cambridgeshire itself looks like an excellent renewal with many horses bringing winning form to the race & lots of unexposed sorts. Jeremy Noseda's Dare To Dance looks potentially dangerously well handicapped after winning well off a mark of 86 on just its 3rd run over 10 furlongs over the July course, the Rowley Mile is a very different & difficult test & although Dare To Dance could be up to winning off this mark of 93 it may be too much to ask for this day. Godolphin's Man Of Action won well off of this mark 2 weeks ago & in that time period over half of Bin Suroor's runners have finished in the top 3 places, rider Frankie Dettori would love to get his first win in the race since winning on the best horse to win the Cambridgeshire - Halling. Standing in their way is John Gosden's Questioning, a horse that they have long thought of as a likely type for this race. Questioning hasn't won since its debut but ran very creditably in huge sales races the next 3 times including twice over this course & distance, he disappointed when 1st running in Listed company but ran well last time when narrowly failing to catch the decent King Torus over a furlong shorter. If William Buick can settle Questioning from his middle draw he should get a good tow into the race & can use his lengthy stride to best effect to take the considerable glory.

Selections:
3.10 Newmarket - Alanza at 7/2 (Coral)
3.50 Newmarket - Questioning at 11/1 (Totesport, Betfred & William Hill)

Home Wins are where the Heart is

Last week saw one of the most exciting & goal filled weekends in the Premier League in recent memory & goes to show just what an unpredictable & watchable league it is - looking at the games last week we fancied some tight low scoring affairs! The contenders in each division now seem to be becoming clearer whilst other teams that started slowly are now hitting their stride meaning that punters are able to make more informed decisions but bookmakers are also creating tighter markets - we're still finding the best value bets & our picks for this week are below.

(Last year's Championship Player of the Year - QPR's Adel Taarabt)

On Sunday Queens Park Rangers host midlands club Aston Villa. Neil Warnock's late activity in the transfer window has started to pay dividends, the Shepherd's Bush based side have picked up four points in their last two games against Newcastle and more recently Wolves. In reality it should have been a full six. Villa started thier campaign brightly however their only win in the last five was against lowly League 2 side Hereford in the the Carling Cup, a competiton they are no longer in following their midweek exit at the hands of Owen Coyle's Bolton. QPR's early exit from the Carling Cup means they've had a full week's rest ahead of this clash. We think that QPR will be too strong for Villa and are available at 11/8 to pick up the 3 points. Adel Taarabt scored 19 league goals in QPR's promotion season and we think he could open the scoring against the Villans, he's available at 17/2 with Victor Chandler.

After their impressive win on Monday night against Coventry, Ipswich travel to the North East to take on Middlesbrough who are sitting pretty in 2nd place, having started the season unbeaten in their first 7 games. Although Boro have that unbeaten run they've only managed the one win at home, against relegated Birmingham City drawing with Portsmouth & Coventry. The home stats aren't too worrying as Boro are now starting to look a much solider proposition than in the past couple of seasons where it was impossible to predict how they'd perform week to week. Ipswich have not looked like they've had a coherent gameplan for most of this season & the 3-0 win on Monday was kicked off with an own goal & that somewhat left Coventry rocking, it will be a different story if they can follow up with another good display far away from home. Middlesbrough have an in form striker in Marvin Emnes who has scored in 5 of the 7 league games & he looks a high quality for the Championship, he can be backed at 9/2 to be first goalscorer & we fancy that he can score first & start Boro on their way to victory at a very fair price of 8/11.

In League One, Preston North End host Tranmere at Deepdale. The Lilywhites are unbeaten in their last six league games, winning five of them. They impressively won away at playoff contenders Brentford 3-1 last weekend, with Neil Mellor scoring a brace, increasing his tally to five this campaign. Wednesday night's loss to Southampton in the League Cup was no disgrace especially as Phil Brown saw fit to rest some players including Neil Mellor starting on the bench - Brown is clearly focused on getting them staright back into the Championship. Visitors Tranmere are sat in mid table currently and have won one of their last four games, 2-0 against strugglers Wycombe. As well as mixed form they also not plentiful when it comes to scoring goals, shown by them only hitting the net ten times in their nine league matches. Therefore we fully expect Preston, led by the in-form Neil Mellor, to outscore Tranmere and continue their unbeaten streak at the best price of 4/5.

Selections:
Preston North End to beat Tranmere at 4/5 (Coral)

QPR to beat Aston Villa at 11/8 (various)
Middlesbrough to beat Ipswich Town at 8/11 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Adel Taarabt to score  first at 17/2 (Victor Chandler) in QPR v Aston Villa game
Marvin Emnes to score first at 9/2 (Betfred, Totesport & Stan James) in Middlesbrough v Ipswich game

South Coast teams to cause Double Trouble

Tonight sees games in the League Cup in England & the 4th set of matches in La Liga & we think that the two teams offering great value are Southampton & Malaga.

 

(Malaga's excellent Santi Cazorla curls in a free kick)

Malaga take on Athletic Bilbao at home in what is an interesting clash of cultures, with Malaga seen as the Manchester City of Spanish football having spent inordinate amounts of money in the summer on marquee signings up against Bilbao the club that have an official policy of only signing Basque players. After a disappointing start where they lost to rivals (in terms of where both teams are hoping to finish) Sevilla, Malaga have come back strongly to win 4-0 against Granada & then 1-0 away to Granada. New signing Santi Cazorla has scored 3 in 3 games so far, they have a great strikeforce with veteran Ruud Van Nistelrooy leading the line & Julio 'the beast' Baptista backing up in a deeper role, multiple options in midfield & an improved defence with the experienced Argentinian Martin Demichelis being a rock at the centre. Athletic Bilbao have yet to win this season & probably overachieved in finishing 6th in 2010-11, Malaga just have too many options & can find the key to beating them in their continuuing charge for a Champions League place - at odds of 4/6 they need to be backed.

High flying Championship side Southampton take on Preston who have had a similarly good start in League One at St Mary's in a game that should show the difference in quality between the two leagues. Preston have already conceded 9 goals in their 7 league games so far but managed to maintain success by keeping up their scoring but with free scoring Southampton (19 goals in the league already) they will not be able to score enough to stop a loss this time. Southampton are 4/7 to win the game & should play a strong enough side to win this one & score goals in the process.

Selections:

Malaga to beat Athletic Bilbao at 4/6 (general)

Southampton to beat Preston at 4/7 (general)

Monday Night Football - Sky Blues & Rams to offer stern tests

It's another Monday Night Football with action from the English Championship with Ipswich Town taking on Coventry City at home & the New York Giants hosting the St Louis Rams in week two of the NFL, these games look like potentially tough affairs between well matched teams but we think we may have found an edge in both games. We'll be looking to carry on our success from the weekend where we got 5 of 6 selections correct with our football picks (2 of 3 in English League action & 3 of 3 with NFL).

(Sam Bradford prepares to make a throw for the St Louis Rams)

The St Louis Rams have to be considered as genuine contenders for a playoff contenders this year being in the weak NFC West Division, last year the Seahawks won the division, becoming the first team to ever win a division without a winning record. Of course thanks to St Louis's abysmal record throught the last part of the last decade (just 6 wins from 48 games through 2007-09!) they have been able to have high draft picks & assemble what is clearly a talented squad, although somewhat lacking in experience. Quarterback Sam Bradford was the first overall pick in the 2010 draft & looks wholly worthy of that elevated position, being voted offensive rookie of the year in 2010, throwing for over 3,500 yards & 18 touchdowns even though he was joint 5th most sacked passer in the league. If the Rams can keep Bradford better protected he should be able to put up some big numbers against the Giants lacklustre defensive backs,he's expected to play after suffering an injury to his right index finger last week. Running back Steven Jackson & lead receiver Danny Amendola are more unlikely not to start, although Cadillac Williams did a passable job rushing the ball last week & the Rams don't really have any star receivers with the ball being spread between the wide outs which should limit the impact of Amendola's loss.

The Giants allowed Rex Grossman to throw for over 300 yards last week against the Redskins but they did manage 4 sacks with Jason Pierre-Paul getting himself a couple, sack machine Justin Tuck may be back in the team & New York will certainly see putting pressure on the QB as the key to winning this one. Offensively the Giants just aren't that intimidating with Bradshaw & Jacobs being passable backs but not the explosive types likely to break a big play. If the Giants can't get their running game going then they'll struggle through the air as Eli Manning is certainly inferior to his brother Peyton, they rely on star receiver Nakeem Hicks to provide a potent deep threat but he suffered a knee injury against Washington & even if he plays he may not be at his best. The Rams have injuries on the defensive side with a couple of backs out & on the offensive side tackle Jason Smth has a sprained ankle. However if Hicks doesn't play the Rams can double up on Mario Manningham & Manning will have a difficult day throwing. With problems on both sides this looks like being a tight one & the Giants certainly don't deserve to be 7 point favourites & St Louis Rams can cover the spread with +7 points at 10/11. With questions on the offensive side for both teams with missing receivers the total points line also seems high at 44 and should be backed to be under again at 10/11.

The Championship match tonight sees two of the struggling sides of the division meet up in Ipswich & Coventry. Coventry lost their first 3 games but have recovered lately, holding out against high-flying Middlesborough & drawing again with Watford before a much needed win against Derby County, all 3 of their losses were only by the odd goal. Striker Lukas Jutkiewicz has been in good form with 3 goals in the last 4 league games & Coventry will be hoping they've made the right decision in turning down an offer from Middlesborough during the recent transfer window. Ipswich started the season with a good result in a 3-0 away win against Bristol City but have since lost 4 of the last 5 including a 5-2 loss against Southampton & a 7-1 drubbing from Peterborough. They managed a win against Leeds United with a last minute goal but Leeds had just lost important player Max Gradel & they are certainly in a slump with manager Paul Jewel seemingly having little answer as to how to arrest it. There is likely to be little in this game especially with the Sky Blues not having lost by more than a goal so far & at the available odds the best bet looks to be to back Coventry with a goal headstart at 4/5, this means that any draw or Coventry win will see us pick up a decent reward.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat New York Giants with +7 points at 10/11 (general)
Under 44 points at 10/11 (general) in the Rams vs Giants game
Coventry City to beat Ipswich Town with +1 goals at 4/5 (general)

NFL Week Two - Lions to maul the Chiefs

After a great opening week in the NFL with some high scoring games we move on to the 2nd round of games with a little more insight into how teams are likely to perform this year, there certainly seem to be some teams moving rapidly forwards whilst others have not addressed areas of weakness over the summer & have regressed.

 (Detroit Lions sack monster Ndamukong Suh in action)

One team that definitely look to be rapdily improving are the Detroit Lions - as they should be for a team that have had so many high draft picks after successive poor seasons including 2008 when they became the first team to lose all 16 games. The Lions beat the Buccaneers in week one & now take on the Kansas City Chiefs who got destroyed last week at home by, of all teams, the Buffalo Bills! The Chiefs looked short on ideas & were poor in their execution in against the Bills, picking up only 107 passing yards, Matt Cassel looked more like the 69.9 rated quarterback from 2009 than last year's 93.0 rated passer. The Chiefs went an impressive 10-6 last year but when relooking at their schedule it is easy to see why as they only beat one team (the notoriously slow starting Chargers in week 1) with a winning record. The Chiefs rely on Jamaal Charles running game being at a high kevel to set up Cassel to throw to Dwayne Bowe but if this 'Holy Trinity' don't click there is little to recommend on offense & their defense is average at best with a great cornerback in Brandon Flowers but a suspect defensive line. The Lions can take advantage of the D-Line with Matt Stafford high in confidence after throwing for 300+ yards last week, he'll look to hit the dependable Calvin Johnson & Nate Burleson often with accurate passes keeping the game moving. Star tackle Ndamukong Suh can pressure Cassel into making mistakes & their cornerbacks, including Chris Houston, will look to pick him off. Detroit should be bigger than -7.5 point favourites as they can run up a score on the poor Chiefs - back them at 10/11.

Elsewhere our pre-season 25/1 tip for for the Super Bowl the Houston Texans travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins, there were conflicting fortunes in week one as the Texans destroyed the Colts minus Peyton Manning & the Dolphins scored 24 yet were still run over by the Patriots. Houston are an offensive powerhouse & can be expected to score points almost anywhere with a very good quarterback in Matt Schaub & an elite receiver in Andre Johnson, last year's lead rusher Arian Foster is likely to return & that makes them even more dangerous. The Dolphins gave up over 600 yards against the Patriots & although they had a good game offensively but it should be noted the Pats are changing up their defense this year & we're wholly unconvinced by Chad Henne at QB. Houston gave up countless yards through the air last year but their secondary has been improved whilst the Dolphins were an impressive defensive unit last year, it is tempting to select over 47.5 total points but only 4 Dolphins games went over that amount last year & that is enough to dissuade us. However we make the Texans bigger than 3 point favourites & they can be backed at 5/6 to cover the spread & continue their push for a divisional win.

The headline game this week has to be the game in Foxborough with the New England Patriots hosting the San Diego Chargers, the teams are currently favourites & 4th favourites for the Super Bowl respectively. New England are general 7 point handicap favourites for this one & it's easy to see after posting 622 offensive yards last week but San Diego were the league leaders, statistically, in 2010 for both offensive yards gained & defensive yards given up so this should not be easy for the Patriots. Of course the Chargers special teams are another thing altogether, they were abysmal last year & on the very 1st play of this season they allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown & Bill Belichick will have instucted his team to take advantage of that. The points spread seems about right for this one but there is a decent price to be had about Deion Branch to score the 1st touchdown of the game at 16/1. Branch scored 5 touchdowns last year & was targeted regularly by Tom Brady last week getting 7 receptions for 93 yards & provides both a short & deep threat, he's as short as 9/1 with Paddy Power.

Finally the Dallas Cowboys should be backed to take care of the San Francisco 49ers with the minimum of fuss. A lot of talk this week has been about the way in which the Cowboys threw away a 14 point lead against the Jets last week but it should be recognised how well they played in that game to get that lead against a team that have reached the conference championship for the last 2 years & San Francisco are nowhere near that quality. The 49ers won last week at home to Seattle but they certainly shouldn't get carried away with that result as the Seahawks are in for a season of struggle with Tavaris Jackson at quarterback, the 49ers own QB Alex Smith has yet to convince even after 6 seasons in the league & he'll have a hard game if Dallas's D-Line get the kind of pressure that they managed in the 1st half last week. Back Dallas to bounce back from their week one defeat at 4/6 without any handicap for what should be a very comfortable win.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Kansas City Chiefs with a -7.5 handicap at 10/11 (general)
Houston Texans to beat Miami Dolphins with a -3 handicap at 5/6 (general)
Dallas Cowboys to beat San Francisco 49ers at 4/6
San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots - Deion Branch to score 1st touchdown at 16/1 with Skybet

Looking for goals? Don't look in the Premier League

This weekend's games appear to have many well matched & likely to be competitive games but that doesn't mean that an edge isn't there to be found in the betting markets.

(Darren Bent takes on Danny Simpson in last season's corresponding fixture)

We're turning our heads to a game featuring two of the 6 unbeaten sides & another Newcastle United away game as they travel to Birmingham to take on Alex McLeish's resolute Aston Villa side. This game certainly doesn't have classic written all over it with Villa having scored just 5 goals in 4 games & Newcastle a paltry 3 but managing 2 victories along the way. Newcastle lack the quality needed at the top end of the pitch & look likely to struggle for goals all season, manager Alan Pardew seems to have recognised this & the team sets up in a very disciplined way away from home. McLeish was not only an unpopular choice for Villa fans because he came from rivals Birmingham City but also because of a perceived defensive mindset, he would be wise to attempt to change this attitude in home games as Villa have a solid base of players & an exceptional striker in Darren Bent that mean they can be dangerous in most games. Petrov looks to be playing at a higher level so far this season & the powerful presence of Agbonlahor should mean that Villa can get chances, we expect them to break the Newcastle defence down without their own goal coming under threat, well protected as it is by the outstanding Shay Given. Villa to win to nil is available at 11/4 with Ladbrokes & for those worried about Villa's own attacking strength a small saver on No Goalscorer is advised at a best price of 11/1 with Stan James.

In League One, Hartlepool welcome Bury to Victoria Park. The Monkey Hangers are yet to lose a league game this season, winning three & drawing four of seven played so far. Their last two games have brought victories at Carlisle & home to Exeter, with opening goals from Gary Liddle setting the platforms. Bury are currently in freefall, losing their last four league games & conceding 11 goals in the process. Therefore we fully expect Hartlepool to continue their strong start to the season at the general price of 10/11.

Down in League Two, we expect goals galore in the match between Torquay and Rotherham. Plainmoor has hosted four league games this season which have all resulted in over 2.5 goals with 2-2, 3-0, 1-3 and 2-2 scores. Whilst on the road, Rotherham games have been equally entertaining with 15 goals coming in their four league games. We see no reason why these trends won't continue at the best price of 10/11 for over 2.5 goals.

This isn't an advised wager but a speculative prediction - this weekends' Premier League games seem particularly tight & we think that No Goalscorer bets could come up in multiple games, anyone who likes speculative multiple bets could do worse than having a small stakes wager on the trebles & quadruples in these games to end up scoreless:
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (two low scoring, low conceding teams)
Blackburn vs Arsenal (Arsenal misfiring & Blackburn desperate not to lose could paralyse attacking instincts)
Everton vs Wigan (Everton barely have a striker & Wigan happy with away draw)
Swansea vs West Brom (The Swans yet to score & Roy Hodgson a defensively excellent coach)
Sunderland vs Stoke (Black Cats only 2 goals & Stoke excellent in defence + may be tired after European tie)
Tottenham vs Liverpool (Spurs have been struggling for goals for the past year but Liverpool may struggle to break them down especially if misfiring striker Andy Carroll doesn't improve)
Bolton vs Norwich (Bolton missing creativity of injured Holden & Lee Chung-Yong & Norwich lacking in quality & pace)

Selections:
Hartlepool to beat Bury at 10/11 (General)
Over 2.5 goals in the Torquay vs Rotherham game at 10/11 (William Hill)
Aston Villa to beat Newcastle United to nil at 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
*(Villa v Newcastle cover bet No Goalscorer at 11/1 with Stan James)

Mayson to take the Ayr Gold Cup

(Champion Jockey Paul Hanagan can pick up the Ayr Gold Cup for the 2nd year in a row)

Saturday sees Europe's richest sprint handicap in the Ayr Gold Cup & the usual trainers have multiple runners with Dandy Nicholls (6 winners in last 11 runnings) running 2, Kevin Ryan 3 & Yorkshire trainer Richard Fahey having 5 chances in the race. Fahey runs the top weight Majestic Myles & it may well have been a deliberate tactic in order to keep the weights of his other runners down with all of them carrying less than 9 stone. Of Fahey's runners Mayson appears to be the pick, as a lightly raced 3 year old colt he's open to all sorts of improvement, is drawn well in stall 5 & is the pick of 2010 champion jockey Paul Hanagan. Mayson competed in the Group 2 Mill Reef stakes on its final 2 year old run before having a great comeback race when 3rd at a big price to Pepper Lane in the Great St Wilfrid. That was its first race for 11 months & although Pepper Lane won well that day there is a 6 pound switch around in the weights in Mayson's favour plus almost inevitable improvement. Obviously a race like this with 27 runners is ultra competitive but Mayson seems to have impeccable credentials & more scope for improvement than any other horse in the race, the key to winning a handicap is to outperform the grader's assigned mark & he can do that, back Mayson at 16/1 each way with 5 places available.

Further South Newbury has a great card with 3 Group races including the Mill Reef for 2 year olds & their Arc trial, we're concentrating on a value bet in the Group 3 sprint race. Katla has only raced over the minimum distance once finishing 4th in a decent Listed contest at Ayr earlier this year & it could be argued that it may be too short a distance to see her at her best but the rain softened ground should help & she has one piece of form that really stands out. In Katla's last race the promising Empowering was just behind but in 3rd place was Alanza, John Ox's filly that has since gone on to take two Listed races & a Group 3 at Doncaster's St Leger meeting in some style. Katla gets all the allowances as a 3 year old filly, receiving 8 pounds from hot favourite Deacon Blues, he'll be tough to beat but many of the others shouldn't be: Astrophysical Jet's wins have all come with firm in the going description; Night Carnation & Medicean Man have both been beaten by Dinkum Diamond recently but Dinkum Diamond looks consistent yet unlikely to win this. At 12/1 & 1/4 the odds for 3 places with several bookmakers an each way bet looks like a sensible option especially with this also being 13/8 favourite Deacon Blues first attempt at the trip.

(Meeting Abandoned) Over in Ireland there is an interesting mixed flat & jumps card at Listowel & a solid bet selection awaits in the last of the day at 5.55 in the 1 mile 6 furlong flat race. Pittoni was a Grade 1 winning juvenile hurdler & was well backed in the 2010 Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham before taking a break & finishing 4th in this race last year & then going off a very well backed 7/4 but disappointing favourite in a 21 runner handicap at Leopardstown. Raced only twice this year Pittoni picked up a handicap hurdle in decent style & then held subsequent Group 3 winner Galileo's Choice in a similar race to this with the rest of the field well behind, Charles Byrnes has rested him since but that form looks massively solid with classy hurdler Luska Lad well held on a line of form with Galileo's Choice. Elyaddi is a good stayer as shown when 2nd in the 2 mile 5 furlong Queen Alexandra stakes at Royal Ascot but may find things happening a little quickly over this comparative sprint distance! Pittoni can round off a good day for everyone with a convincing success & a best morning price should be taken, odds of 5/4 or better look very fair.

Selections:
3.20 Ayr - Mayson each way at 16/1 (5 places with most bookmakers apart from Ladbrokes)
3.40 Newbury - Katla each way at 12/1 (1/4 the odds with Bet 365, BlueSquare, Ladbrokes & Coral)
5.55 Listowel - Pittoni at a best morning price (Meeting Abandoned)

Shrimps & Bees & Devils oh my!

The football season is seems to be really hitting its stride now with the leagues beginning to take shape & contenders starting to emerge, at the top level we see the start of the Champions League group stages & in the lower leagues the 8th round of matches in a full midweek programme. There are some decent bets to be had & we've looked at all the competitions & various markets to identify the best value punts.

The Champions League proper gets underway this week & Manchester United face Portuguese league runners up Benfica away in Lisbon for what should be their toughest game of a pretty easy group. United have started the season in blisteringly good form & are by all measures superior to Benfica however they are likely to change their team around a little as they need to give players game time & have to think about their key domestic matchup with Chelsea at Old Trafford on Sunday. United only conceded one goal in the group stage last year & Benfica lack the attacking potency to breach their defence here however United may not go all out for the win, therefore the safest option is to back Man United to win in the draw no bet market at 2/5. This bet offers decent odds at very minimal risk as only a Benfica win can beat us, with the draw returning our stake & a sizeable bet is strongly advised.

In League One, Brentford, under the management of Uwe Rosler face Colchester at Griffin Park. The Bees have won five of their last six games in all competitions; which sees them riding high in 4th place and only two points off joint league leaders Sheffield Utd & Charlton. Whilst Colchester have drawn their last two games, including a home draw on Saturday against bottom of the table Leyton Orient and have only recorded one victory in their last six in all competitions. We fully expect Brentford to confirm both teams recent form at a very generous price of 11/10.

(Morecambe's in form striker Danny Carlton)

Down in League Two, table toppers Morecambe travel to Moss Road to play Macclesfield Town. Morecambe destroyed promotion favourites Crawley Town 6-0 at the weekend & are unbeaten in their last six league games. This includes winning their last three away games, scoring seven in the process & just conceding the solitary goal. Macclesfield have lost their last two games, 7-0 on aggregate & have only won one of their last six home games in all competitions. Morecambe are in great form & full of confidence, they will take some stopping so make the most of the 6/4 available. Danny Carlton scored 3 against Crawley, has 6 in all competitions & there's nothing quite like an in form striker (as Wayne Rooney will attest) he can be backed at 6/1 to open the scoring.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Benfica in the draw no bet market at 2/5 (general)
Brentford to beat Colchester at 11/10 (Victor Chandler)
Morecambe to beat Macclesfield at 7/5 (general) & Danny Carlton to score first at 6/1 (Bet365 & Ladbrokes)

A treble on the above teams returns odds of around 11/2 for a potential big win.

Monday Night Football

It's Monday Night Football here with Queens Park Rangers against Newcastle United & in the US with Super Bowl favourites New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins & the Oakland Raiders at the Denver Broncos.

(Adel Taarabt can lead QPR to victory)

QPR have had a mixed start to the season, getting a good result in the 1-0 win at Everton but not scoring in losses to Bolton & Wigan, in those two games they actually had 7 & 9 shots on target respectively showing that they can be productive going forwards but need to put their chances away. The signings of Luke Young, Shaun Wright-Phillips & Joey Barton (making his debut for QPR against the club he's just left) have all been made with the intention to create higher quality chances & they will want to start this off against Newcastle. Newcastle have made a very decent start to the season but the loss of Joey Barton shouldn't be underestimated, whilst he is inarguably a disruptive influence off the pitch (& sometimes on it), he is one of the best English midfielders around & the quality of his passing & crossing mark him out as elite. Newcastle's mediocre forwards (Demba Ba, Leon Best, the incredibly slow Peter Lovenkrands & the Ameobi's) are really amongst the worst in the league & none, bar maybe Ba, would look out of place in the Championship - they will now not have Barton's service & will struggle to score in this & a lot of games. QPR shipped 4 goals against Bolton but were exceptional at keeping clean sheets last season with 25 in 46 games in the league, they've added to their creative side, which already had potential Premier League star Adel Taarabt & we think they can win to nil at 3/1.

In the 1st Monday night NFL game we see an AFC East matchup with the Patriots fancied to cover the 7 point spread with some ease up against the Dolphins. The Patriots lost just twice in the regular season last year whilst Miami went 7-9 losing twice to the Patriots by 27 points & 31 points. That 2nd loss was the last game of the regular season & there is little to suggest that either the Dolphins have improved enough or the Patriots regressed enough that a Dolphins win or even a close contest can be expected, in fact the Patriots seem to have upgraded, albeit with veterans - suggesting they really need to get the Super Bowl win this season as their players will have to start feeling their age soon. Brady has so many targets to aim for it makes it difficult to defend against the pass & the dependable Green-Ellis & tiny but elusive Danny Woodhead offering a potent rush attack. Chad Henne is definitely in the bottom half of the NFL quarterback rankings, the signing of running back Reggie Bush is unconvincing & they rely on star receiver Brandon Marshall too much, we don't see them having a winning season & they certainly shouldn't be able to make best use of home advantage here.

The other game is also a divisional rivalry with the Oakland Raiders facing off against the Denver Broncos a mile above sea level up at Sports Authority Field Denver. Broncos fans must still be having nightmares about last years fixture where Oakland won 59-14 & the Raiders will be attempting to make it 4 wins in a row at Denver. Oakland rather surprisingly sacked head coach Tom Cable at the season end to the vocal upset of several players & owner Al Davis arguably interferes in the football side of the game too much for the Raiders to have legitimate championship claims. The Broncos offseason wasn't exactly smooth though with much uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position, they've gone with Kyle Orton but he will surely be playing under immense pressure with the high profile Tim Tebow pushing for his place. The Broncos do have last seasons leading receiver in the explosive Brandon Lloyd but traded away their good 2nd choice receiver Jabar Gaffney & risk becoming one dimensional, Lloyd is potentially that good that he can cope with double coverage but Denver have to hope that's the case. Denver were woeful on defense last year & Oakland's star back Darren McFadden will look to take advantage, the offense-defense matchups are good for the Raiders who finished 2nd best in total yards against the pass but 29th against the run, they can contain Lloyd whilst the Broncos backs aren't good enough to take advantage. The market seems to be very optimistic towards the Broncos & the Oakland Raiders should be backed at 6/4 to continue their fine divisional record (won all 6 games last year), McFadden to score the first touchdown is a good call at 11/2.

Selections:

QPR to beat Newcastle without conceding at 3/1 (general)
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -7 points at Evens (William Hill & Totesport)
Oakland Raiders to beat Denver Broncos at 6/4 (general) & Darren McFadden to score 1st TD at 11/2 (general)

NFL Week 1

The opening week of the NFL season sees some intriguing matchups & bitter rivalries reignited that should provide an explosive start as the 32 teams begin their journey to the Super Bowl.

 (Forte & Cutler can combine to sting Falcons)

In the NFC the top two seeds from their side of the playoffs meet as the Atlanta Falcons travel to Chicago to face the Bears at Soldier Field. Both teams are credible championship contenders with the Falcons having some great offensive weapons in receiver Roddy White & running back Michael Turner backed up by decent quarterback Matt Ryan, however on defense they don't appear to have the players available to make game changing plays. The Bears have traditionally been all about the running game & this season should be no different with a defense that is awesome at stopping it & ason offense rushing means keeping the ball out of Jay Cutler's meaning he throws fewer interceptions (most in NFL since he started). Matt Forte is developing into an elite runing back & his ability to catch as well as run means he gets plenty of chances to score (3 receiving TDs last year) & he should get some plays against the Falcons who gave up 4.6 yards  per run attempt last year. The Bears are unsettled with key players not being able to agree terms on extended contracts but it's amazing what a big win can do for morale & we think they can shut down the Falcons running game, forcing them to pass where the Bears secondary can show their worth & the Bears should be bet at 11/10 with Forte to score the 1st touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365).

In the AFC North the fiercest, most physical rivalry in the NFL kicks off again with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that could be key, even at this stage of the season in deciding the divisional winners. The Steelers have recent advantage winning 5 of the last 7 matchups but there have been close games with both last years regular season games decided by 3 points, with both sides difficult to run against (ranked 1st & 5th against the run in 2010). Pittsburgh are outright phenomenal against the run conceding over 400 less yards last year than any other team, that is in part because teams give up the rush against them & just pass & they are certainly vulnerable to elite passing units, however the Ravens are not elite by any means. Boldin & new receiver Lee Evans are both 30 & Joe Flacco, whilst a good quarterback, has a career passer rating against the Steelers of a very poor 59.2. Roethelisberger can continue his fine record against the Ravens by keeping the ball away from interception machine Ed Reed by using his full quota of wide receivers & that could mean young Antonio Brown is value at 25/1 with Skybet to be 1st TD scorer. The Steelers should also be backed at 21/20 to mantain their advantage over the Ravens.

Elsewhere we think the best bets lie with the Titans to beat the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars, who cut their starting quarterback David Garrard at the start of this week, & our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans to cover the -9 point spread with their high powered offense against the 'Peyton Manning-less' Colts. The Colts running backs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown are very ordinary & without Manning they'll struggle through the air, Manning's injury will show just how foolish it is to build a team around one player.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to beat Atlanta Falcons at 11/10 (general) + Forte to score 1st Touchdown at 8/1 (Bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Baltimore Ravens at 21/20 (Ladbrokes & Skybet) + Antonio Brown to score 1st Touchdown at 25/1 (Skybet)
Tennessee Titans to beat Jacksonville Jaguars at Evens (general)
Houston Texans to beat Indianapolis Colts on handicap with -9 points at 10/11 (general)

Troubled times at The Emirates

Notts County played Juventus in Turin on Thursday night in the opening of the Nuovo Stadium, and just two days later face they now face Walsall in a mid-table battle in League One. County's Chief Exec has publically spoken stating the congestion isn't ideal but the lure of playing one of the European giants was 'the chance of a lifetime'. Walsall come into the game 1 point behind their League One counterparts and are in decent form winning two of their last three (only losing to promotion hopefuls Brentford) & we fancy The Saddlers to claim a point at Meadow Lane. Last season these sides finished one league placing apart & we think there will be a similar outcome this term. Back Dean Smith's men to come away from Nottinghamshire with a Draw at 13/5.

Down in League Two, Shrewsbury face Hereford at Greenhouse Meadow. The Shrews have won four of their last six games in all competitions; with a 1-0 victory at promotion rivals Gillingham last weekend. On the same day, Hereford recorded their first victory of the season vs Dag & Red but it remains their only win in 11 league fixtures & on the road they haven't had success since March. We see Shrewsbury as a home banker for any multiples bets & they can continue their 11 match unbeaten home record at odds of 4/6.

(Arsene Wenger shows his frustration)

The game at The Emirates could prove crucial for Arsene Wenger who is enduring his most difficult time in management, this game could prove interesting for many reasons without necessarily being exciting. Arsenal have now failed to win in the league this season scoring just twice (in the 8-2) defeat to Manchester United, stretching back to last season they've now won just 2 of 14 games in the league & are severely lacking in confidence & star players. Wenger made late moves to sign Park Chu-Young, Andre Santos, Per Mertesacker & Mikel Arteta but it should take some time for these new players to be integrated into the team & they are certainly not a team to backed at this moment in time. They come up against Swansea City who have not even managed a single goal in their first Premier League season yet but have kept clean sheets in their last 2 outings after getting a potentially demoralising beating at the hands of Man City in their opener. New goalkeeper Michel Vorm has been outstanding (even in the 4-0 at City) & Swansea will not come to Arsenal attempting to win by playing an open, expansive & attacking game - they've lost centre back Alan Tate to a freak accident in a golf buggy & will turn up with men behind the ball in an aim to frustrate Arsenal & if the fans start to get on the Gunners players backs early on we could see a tense & tight game. We're happy to back Vorm to have another shutout without Swansea having the quality to score at the other end, backing No Goalscorer rather than 0-0 at the same price means you can also be paid out if the only goal is an own goal, do this at the available 14/1 & prepare for Wenger to take his frustrations out on those trusty water bottles!

Selections
Notts County and Walsall to draw at 13/5 (various)
Shrewsbury to beat Hereford at 4/6 (various)
No goalscorer Arsenal vs Swansea at 14/1 (various)

Road to the Super Bowl - NFL Season Preview (NFC)

We've looked at the AFC contenders in our first post, here we'll preview the chances of some of the NFC's leading lights including last year's impressive champions the Green Bay Packers.

The NFC North is a fascinating division as although the Packers won the Super Bowl last year they didn't actually win the division after finishing 10-6 & qualifying for the playoffs in the Wild Card round, the Chicago Bears won the division & will hope to follow up this year. The Green Bay Packers were highly impressive at times last year, taking real momentum from the tight win at home to the Vikings (thanks to turning 2 Brett Favre interceptions into touchdowns) to then shut out the Jets away, smash the Dallas Cowboys & then maul the Vikings at the Metrodome coming off the bye week. The Packers then lost 3 of their next 4 before going unbeaten to the Super Bowl & their record serves to highlight the sides strength & weakness - they have an elite Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers & a phenomenal receiving core, especially in terms of depth, but they do seem to be a streaky team that play well when things are going great, they only had 2 games last year where they came from behind at half time to win. I have a suspicion that when the offensive line can protect Rodgers he becomes supremely confident & finds it easy to throw strikes to his receivers but if teams can get at him then his accuracy & timing get shakier & he doesn't gather his composure as well as say a Brady or Rothelisberger. However Aaron Rodgers is likely to still be improving & with 4 very good receivers in Jennings, Driver, Jordy Nelson & James Jones he's still likely to have a big scoring season & they are good enough to come out on top in any game when facing opposition without good enough pass rushers. The running game for the Packers is still suspect though with Brandon Jackson leaving & James Starks having minimal experience, Kuhn is useful for sort yardage situations but overall this aspect of the game is far behind the passing & opposing teams should note this & set up to dfeend the pass much more effectively this year. At defense the Packers are solid & have one of, if not the best defensive players in the league in the dominating linebacker Clay Matthews, he is a player that can make things happen & it would leave a big hole if he were to get injured. At cornerback they still have the future hall of famer Charles Woodson but at 34 turning 35 this year his influence may be on the wane, Tramon Williams needs to continue his strong form from last year (6 interceptions) to ensure they stay strong against the deep threat. Clearly the Packers are a side that can beat any other on any day but without improvement in the rushing game consecutive championships may prove beyond them, a tough schedule also doesn't help with away games at Atlanta, the New York Giants & San Diego being some of the hardest they could have faced.

(Devin Hester making a return for the Chicago Bears)

In the same NFC North division the Chicago Bears appear to have a slightly easier schedule than the already discussed Packers (save for a monster game away to the Eagles), made more interesting as one of their away games is counted as the game in London against Tampa Bay in the International Series. The game in London hasn't adversely affected the teams involved in previous years & should give the Bears a taste of the glamour they will be hoping to get with a successful run to the playoffs. The ground game has always been the Bears traditional strength & 2011 should be no different with the strong Matt Forte being backed up by new recruit from the Cowboys Marion Barber. Chicago have weapons in the wide receiver position with Roy Williams having joined from the Cowboys & Devin Hester, Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox all having the potential to make plays. How the Bears season pans out depends much on how well they can integrate their controversial quarterback Jay Cutler into the game, he was roundly criticised for not coming back onto the field in their crucial NFC Championship game following a sprained ligament, Cutler can put up big numbers but will need to be better protected if they harbour hopes of going all the way. At defense the Bears are strong with Brian Urlacher starring at inside linebacker & 6 time Pro Bowler Julius Peppers still being one of the best defensive ends, they have had a setback though with outside linebacker Lance Briggs requesting a trade right before the start of the season. The Bears also have the most dangerous return man in football with Devin Hester now the all-time leading kick & punt return touchdown leader. At the available big odds of 13/2 with Stan James the Bears are worthy of picks for being NFC North divisional winners although they may not have quite enough star quality to progress too far in the playoffs.

The Phildelphia Eagles are general 3rd favourites for the Super Bowl & certainly have claims with players that can make things happen on offense & defense. The Eagles appear to have traded well in the offseason bringing in one of the very best cornerbacks in from Oakland in Nnamdi Asomugha, Ronnie Brown as extra running back competition for LeSean Jackson & Vince Young as backup quarterback to the re-signed (on a $100m contract)  Michael Vick & Young could be needed with the amount of rushing Vick undertakes. Having a dual-threat quarterback that is so good at both aspects of the game, with a big accurate arm & quick legs is something that no other team posess & makes it so hard for teams to defend against when the QB can take off at any time. A big problem with the rushing quarterback is that they can get banged up & injured or even just tired through games but with a backup as good as Young it means they can slot him in when needed without needing to change tactics, even the 3rd string QB Mike Kafka is dual-threat & has potential. In defense the Eagles are simply phenomenal aginst the deep threat with star cornerback Asante amuel now being joined by Asomuga & they should get plenty of interceptions betwen them to make the defense a potent unit. Their schedule hasn't been unkind with some of their toughest opponents having to travel to Philadelphia & probably their hardest away game comes in week 2 versus the Atlanta Falcons. Although the rush defense was only middling last year & there appear to have been no obvious improvements to it the Eagles are still due a great season & best odds of 10/11 to win the NFC East underestimates their superiority to their rivals as Dallas have ben overrated for years  are in a little bit of transition & the Giants look some way off their 2007 Super Bowl winning best.

Selections:
Chicago Bears to win NFC North at 13/2 with Stan James
Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East at 10/11 (general)