After Frankel's stunning performance in the Sussex Stakes it is difficult for any other race to live up to those heights, of course having a substantial sum of money on a participant always helps to liven things up which is exactly what we plan to do in the 2nd race at Goodwood on Friday.
The 2nd on the card is a 7 furlong Listed race & has a horse with huge potential running for the in form Jeremy Noseda (5 winners from last 14 runners) in the form of Western Aristocrat. The Mr Greeley colt is the least exposed of the field having had just 3 runs, winning his maiden last year impressively, then winning a handicap off a mark on just his 2nd start & comeback run this season, in its last race Western Aristocrat got to within a length of Tuesday's Lennox Stakes winner Strong Suit. The form looks good enough in itself but with the promise of much more to come and perfect underfoot conditions the 13/8 currently available will not be around for long - it wouldn't surprise us to see this as the best backed horse all day tomorrow. The opposition is creditable and running at the right level in a Listed contest but Western Aristocrat could be onto bigger and better things in the near future with Goodwood's Group 2 Celebration Mile being his next entry.
We already advised Green Destiny for the Golden Mile and there's no reason to desert him after Modun's very creditable and somewhat unlucky 2nd on Tuesday. The other horses in the race are unlikely to be good enough and the bigger question is whether he can find the gaps necessary, jockey Adam Beschizza will almost certainly be under instruction to leave it late but I'd expect him to sweep down the outside rather than risk getting stuck behind horses. 11/4 is a great price when I believe that it is effectively betting that he won't find trouble in running.
Our final selection runs in the 1st and can get us off to a flyer. Indian Days wins have all come on ground described with firm in the description and will get ideal conditions here, he's a two-time course winner and has already won a Group 3 this year beating Poet in the process who then went on to run Workforce close at Sandown. Indian days was slightly disappointing the next twice but that was running in a Group 2 just two weeks later & then when given an impossible task in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. An 8 week rest will help and being by Daylami is likely to be getting better with age, the 16/1 available is insultingly large. The horse to beat is last year's winner Redwood, a horse that has run well during its Globetrotting over the last year, winning a Grade 1 at Woodbine & finishing 2nd in the Hong Kong Vase & Sheema Classic. Redwood got blitzed by Crystal Capella last time but might be sharper for that run however the prices dictate that Indian Days is the one to side with.
Selections
2.00 Goodwood - Indian Days each way at 16/1
2.35 Goodwood - Western Aristocrat at 13/8
3.10 Goodwood - Green Destiny at 11/4
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Glorious Goodwood Day 2
Wednesday sees the match up that the racing world have been waiting for when Henry Cecil's freakishly talented Frankel takes on Richard Hannon's star miler Canford Cliffs. It's a fascinating contest and much depends on how the classic generation form matches up against the older horses and how the race is run.
Lets get the 2 outsiders in the race out of the way 1st of all, Rio de La Plata won a Group 1 as a 2 year old but his subsequent form doesn't match up having only won 3 races since, a conditions event and a Listed & a Group 3. Freddy Head doesn't tend to travel abroad with his horses unless they have a chance but his Rajsaman has to be looking for 3rd place money, he's won a Group 2 beating the better at 10 furlongs Byword and that form isn't strong enough here.
Frankel was a brilliant 2 year old and won the 2000 Guineas in incredible front running style earning him the title of joint-top rated horse in the world with a mark of 130 alongside Australian sprint star Black Caviar. Tom Queally gave him a strange ride last time and Frankel appeared to tie up towards the end of the race when Zoffany got within a length. He has dismissed of his rivals in striking fashion although there have to be question marks over the 3 year olds overall quality in the miler division, other than Frankel little else looks that great. However Strong Suit winning in good style on Tuesday ties in with Frankel beating Zoffany, next time out Zoffany was 2nd & Strong Suit 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat. Richard Hannon will know exactly how strong that form is as he trains Strong Suit & Canford Cliffs, a horse he has described as the best he's trained. Until beating Group 1 harvester Goldikova last time there probably hadn't quite been a performance from Canford Cliffs from the absolute upper echelons. He's won 5 Group 1's in a row but the Irish 2000 wasn't great, he beat the good Dick Turpin next time, Rip Van Winkle next in this race last year was talked about as brilliant but Rip was probably better over 10 furlongs and only ever delivered one really world class performance - when beating Paco Boy here in 2009.
It's a tough decision but when you take into account that Canford has to give 8 pounds to Frankel as an age for weight allowance that just tips the tables in Frankel's favour. The fact that Frankel is versatile with regards tactics will also help, hopefully Tom Queally won't be put off giving him a front running ride due to the criticism he received last time - I had no problem with him going from the front but Queally has to judge the pace better rather than going off like a maniac. Canford Cliffs will have to be at his absolute best to turn over Frankel and we haven't even seen whether Frankel will allow a horse to pass him if it comes to a battle, my suspicion is he won't.
Later in the day at 4.55 is a race that is an altogether less auspicious affair but it can be the source of great joy to those that heed the following advice. Lutine Bell has been running consistently well off of marks in the 90s in good handicaps, last time finishing behind the useful Noble Citizen whilst conceding 5 pounds. Noble Citizen subsequently finished 3rd behind the dangerously well handicapped Bronze Prince whilst running under a 6 pound penalty. From my reckoning Lutine Bell should have a rating of just about 96 which would make him the best in this race with arguably the best recent form. The ground should have dried today and will do further tomorrow which plays strongly into our favour. Being drawn in stall 8 should allow jockey Hugh Bowman to settle him in behind and I fully expect to see Lutine Bell surge to the front within the final half furlong, 7/1 is the best price available currently and that seems a great price.
Selections:
3.10 Goodwood - Frankel at 4/5 with William Hill, 8/11 elsewhere
4.55 Goodwood - Lutine Bell at 7/1
Lets get the 2 outsiders in the race out of the way 1st of all, Rio de La Plata won a Group 1 as a 2 year old but his subsequent form doesn't match up having only won 3 races since, a conditions event and a Listed & a Group 3. Freddy Head doesn't tend to travel abroad with his horses unless they have a chance but his Rajsaman has to be looking for 3rd place money, he's won a Group 2 beating the better at 10 furlongs Byword and that form isn't strong enough here.
Frankel was a brilliant 2 year old and won the 2000 Guineas in incredible front running style earning him the title of joint-top rated horse in the world with a mark of 130 alongside Australian sprint star Black Caviar. Tom Queally gave him a strange ride last time and Frankel appeared to tie up towards the end of the race when Zoffany got within a length. He has dismissed of his rivals in striking fashion although there have to be question marks over the 3 year olds overall quality in the miler division, other than Frankel little else looks that great. However Strong Suit winning in good style on Tuesday ties in with Frankel beating Zoffany, next time out Zoffany was 2nd & Strong Suit 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat. Richard Hannon will know exactly how strong that form is as he trains Strong Suit & Canford Cliffs, a horse he has described as the best he's trained. Until beating Group 1 harvester Goldikova last time there probably hadn't quite been a performance from Canford Cliffs from the absolute upper echelons. He's won 5 Group 1's in a row but the Irish 2000 wasn't great, he beat the good Dick Turpin next time, Rip Van Winkle next in this race last year was talked about as brilliant but Rip was probably better over 10 furlongs and only ever delivered one really world class performance - when beating Paco Boy here in 2009.
It's a tough decision but when you take into account that Canford has to give 8 pounds to Frankel as an age for weight allowance that just tips the tables in Frankel's favour. The fact that Frankel is versatile with regards tactics will also help, hopefully Tom Queally won't be put off giving him a front running ride due to the criticism he received last time - I had no problem with him going from the front but Queally has to judge the pace better rather than going off like a maniac. Canford Cliffs will have to be at his absolute best to turn over Frankel and we haven't even seen whether Frankel will allow a horse to pass him if it comes to a battle, my suspicion is he won't.
Later in the day at 4.55 is a race that is an altogether less auspicious affair but it can be the source of great joy to those that heed the following advice. Lutine Bell has been running consistently well off of marks in the 90s in good handicaps, last time finishing behind the useful Noble Citizen whilst conceding 5 pounds. Noble Citizen subsequently finished 3rd behind the dangerously well handicapped Bronze Prince whilst running under a 6 pound penalty. From my reckoning Lutine Bell should have a rating of just about 96 which would make him the best in this race with arguably the best recent form. The ground should have dried today and will do further tomorrow which plays strongly into our favour. Being drawn in stall 8 should allow jockey Hugh Bowman to settle him in behind and I fully expect to see Lutine Bell surge to the front within the final half furlong, 7/1 is the best price available currently and that seems a great price.
Selections:
3.10 Goodwood - Frankel at 4/5 with William Hill, 8/11 elsewhere
4.55 Goodwood - Lutine Bell at 7/1
Monday, 25 July 2011
Glorious Goodwood Day One
Goodwood's premier meeting starts on Tuesday and promises to be the West Sussex venue's best for some time with races being hotly contested by high quality horses. There are some decent prospects running over all 5 days but we'll start with the 1st day plus an extra selection for Friday before the value disappears.
Trying to pick the winner of an 18 runner handicap may seem like a tough way to start but the favourite for the 1st race looks a hot proposition. Modun finished a very good 2nd to the highly impressive Green Destiny at York yet has only been raised 2 pounds by the handicapper, that should leave him a few pounds well in as Stoute's charge looks well up to winning Listed and minor Group contests, William Hill offer a standout 7/2 but that is unlikely to be available for long - take it! Green Destiny runs on Friday in the Golden Mile and is also available at 7/2, once Modun wins tomorrow that will disappear quickly, the form of their previous race looks rock solid and Green Destiny will be very tough to beat.
We'll attempt to follow up in the next race, the Group 3 Gordon Stakes with another of Sir Michael Stoute's horses Fiorente. It finished 2nd to Saturday's King George hero Nathaniel last time and although Nathaniel may have been slightly fortunate with Workforce veering across the track rather than going forwards that form is still mighty strong. Fiorente has the perfect pedigree for 1 mile 4 furlongs over softish ground, being by the German super stallion Monsun out of a Pilsudski mare. Slumber is next in the betting but there may be more to fear from Mark Johnston's Namibian that won over 2 miles last time and Silvestre De Sousa may try to nick it from the front, Fiorente should pick him off.
Backing trainers or jockeys blind is a sure way to the poor house, it often seems that casual punters forget that it is the horse doing the racing rather than the man - however it can make sense to back several of a trainers horses in a single day if they already have a decent chance because trainers can develop their horses to peak fitness at similar times.
Selections:
2.00 Goodwood - Modun at 7/2 with William Hill
2.35 Goodwood - Fiorente at 11/10
Plus Friday in the Golden Mile - Green Destiny at 7/2
Trying to pick the winner of an 18 runner handicap may seem like a tough way to start but the favourite for the 1st race looks a hot proposition. Modun finished a very good 2nd to the highly impressive Green Destiny at York yet has only been raised 2 pounds by the handicapper, that should leave him a few pounds well in as Stoute's charge looks well up to winning Listed and minor Group contests, William Hill offer a standout 7/2 but that is unlikely to be available for long - take it! Green Destiny runs on Friday in the Golden Mile and is also available at 7/2, once Modun wins tomorrow that will disappear quickly, the form of their previous race looks rock solid and Green Destiny will be very tough to beat.
We'll attempt to follow up in the next race, the Group 3 Gordon Stakes with another of Sir Michael Stoute's horses Fiorente. It finished 2nd to Saturday's King George hero Nathaniel last time and although Nathaniel may have been slightly fortunate with Workforce veering across the track rather than going forwards that form is still mighty strong. Fiorente has the perfect pedigree for 1 mile 4 furlongs over softish ground, being by the German super stallion Monsun out of a Pilsudski mare. Slumber is next in the betting but there may be more to fear from Mark Johnston's Namibian that won over 2 miles last time and Silvestre De Sousa may try to nick it from the front, Fiorente should pick him off.
Backing trainers or jockeys blind is a sure way to the poor house, it often seems that casual punters forget that it is the horse doing the racing rather than the man - however it can make sense to back several of a trainers horses in a single day if they already have a decent chance because trainers can develop their horses to peak fitness at similar times.
Selections:
2.00 Goodwood - Modun at 7/2 with William Hill
2.35 Goodwood - Fiorente at 11/10
Plus Friday in the Golden Mile - Green Destiny at 7/2
Friday, 22 July 2011
Looking for Excellence at Ascot
A highly competitive card at Ascot on Saturday sees the UK's premier middle distance race and has an incredible roll call of winners including some greats such as Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Dancing Brave & Daylami. There is only one horse in this running of the race with claims to being a great and that is last year's impressive winner of the Derby & Arc Workforce. There is strong opposition today including St Nicholas Abbey who was red hot favourite for last year's 2000 Guineas only to flop and not be seen until April this year where he was beaten at long odds on by the Triumph hurdle runner up, Aidan O'Brien has coaxed him back to form winning at Chester then following up by beating Midday in the Group 1 Coronation Cup, however Midday has been arguably disappointing this season & we're happy to take him on. It can be argued through runnings against So You Think that Rewilding has the beating of Workforce but that would be too literal a reading of the form, both raced against the Australian star over 10 furlongs but Workforce much prefers this stiffer 2 furlong further distance and certainly had the measure of the Godolphin challenger in the Derby beating him by 7 and a half lengths. The rain has come and that will definitely be in Workforce's favour - expect to see Ryan Moore deliver him with a strong run some way out and a distance win.
The opener is a female Jockey's race and Ryan Moore's younger sister can make it a good start to the day for the family with a win on the talented Captain Ramius. Winner of its 1st 3 races including a Listed contest on its 3rd start back in 2008 he has since struggled running off of high handicap marks, however the last time he was successful was over 7 furlongs in good to soft off a mark of 87, today are exactly the same conditions but off a handicap mark of 86 this spells win to us - especially with a price of 12/1.
Our final selection is in the 24 runner Heritage handicap at 3.50, Ascot is a track where some horses just don't seem to perform so its good to have a course and distance winner on our side and we have that in Excellent Guest. He has form that ties in with the vastly improved top weight in the race Hawkeyethenoo and the swing in weights he receives gives him a chance to at the very least get closer. Excellent Guest is highly consistent and an each way bet at the 10/1 available with William Hill seems to be a bet with minimal risk but potential high rewards.
Selections:
Ascot 1.30 - Captain Ramius 12/1
Ascot 3.50 - Excellent Guest ew at 10/1 with William Hill
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce 11/8
The opener is a female Jockey's race and Ryan Moore's younger sister can make it a good start to the day for the family with a win on the talented Captain Ramius. Winner of its 1st 3 races including a Listed contest on its 3rd start back in 2008 he has since struggled running off of high handicap marks, however the last time he was successful was over 7 furlongs in good to soft off a mark of 87, today are exactly the same conditions but off a handicap mark of 86 this spells win to us - especially with a price of 12/1.
Our final selection is in the 24 runner Heritage handicap at 3.50, Ascot is a track where some horses just don't seem to perform so its good to have a course and distance winner on our side and we have that in Excellent Guest. He has form that ties in with the vastly improved top weight in the race Hawkeyethenoo and the swing in weights he receives gives him a chance to at the very least get closer. Excellent Guest is highly consistent and an each way bet at the 10/1 available with William Hill seems to be a bet with minimal risk but potential high rewards.
Selections:
Ascot 1.30 - Captain Ramius 12/1
Ascot 3.50 - Excellent Guest ew at 10/1 with William Hill
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce 11/8
The Keys to success
Today sees some good action at the UK's best two racecourses - Ascot during the day & York for an evening meeting. We have a couple of selections that should take all the beating plus another that will potentially blow its rivals out of the water.
Starting with York in the 7.30 Fillies Listed contest we find Sajjha running for Saeed bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori is making the trip up to York to steer her home following his one ride at Ascot. bin Suroor started the season slowly and Godolphin's other trainer al Zarooni has somewhat left him in the shade with Blue Bunting's Classic successes but the stable is back in the groove now with 5 winners from 21 runners and another 6 in the top 3 in those races. Sajjha went off favourite for a Group 2 at Ascot last time and should have the class and turn of foot to put these rivals to the sword.
At Ascot we're hoping that trainer Roger Charlton has a good day and take Primevere to land what is another Listed Fillies race in the 3.20, she's top rated and was unlucky to run into the useful Nahrain last time. This is a weak race for a Listed race and her only real danger comes from Winter's Night and maybe Soorah, already having shown the level of form necessary she is by Singspiel and so should be improving with experience in what is just her 5th start.
Charlton should definitely be celebrating after the 3.55 2 mile handicap where his runner Keys runs under a 6 pound penalty against some nice enough types, unfortunately being nice enough will not be enough against this beast of a horse. Jamie Spencer teams up again with Keys just 6 days after showboating his way to victory having long looks around and a few concillatory words with the jockeys pumping away on the horses behind. Keys would have been a serious contender for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper before injury ruined those plans and is 10 pounds well in today - the handicapper put him up 16 pounds for that latest victory but today he only has the penalty to contend with. Charlton wouldn't turn him out quickly without good reason, take heed and get your savings on this one, odds against shouldn't stand up for long.
Selections:
7.30 York - Sajjha Evs
3.20 Ascot - Primevere 7/4
3.55 Ascot - Keys 6/5
Treble on above pays 12/1
Starting with York in the 7.30 Fillies Listed contest we find Sajjha running for Saeed bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori is making the trip up to York to steer her home following his one ride at Ascot. bin Suroor started the season slowly and Godolphin's other trainer al Zarooni has somewhat left him in the shade with Blue Bunting's Classic successes but the stable is back in the groove now with 5 winners from 21 runners and another 6 in the top 3 in those races. Sajjha went off favourite for a Group 2 at Ascot last time and should have the class and turn of foot to put these rivals to the sword.
At Ascot we're hoping that trainer Roger Charlton has a good day and take Primevere to land what is another Listed Fillies race in the 3.20, she's top rated and was unlucky to run into the useful Nahrain last time. This is a weak race for a Listed race and her only real danger comes from Winter's Night and maybe Soorah, already having shown the level of form necessary she is by Singspiel and so should be improving with experience in what is just her 5th start.
Charlton should definitely be celebrating after the 3.55 2 mile handicap where his runner Keys runs under a 6 pound penalty against some nice enough types, unfortunately being nice enough will not be enough against this beast of a horse. Jamie Spencer teams up again with Keys just 6 days after showboating his way to victory having long looks around and a few concillatory words with the jockeys pumping away on the horses behind. Keys would have been a serious contender for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper before injury ruined those plans and is 10 pounds well in today - the handicapper put him up 16 pounds for that latest victory but today he only has the penalty to contend with. Charlton wouldn't turn him out quickly without good reason, take heed and get your savings on this one, odds against shouldn't stand up for long.
Selections:
7.30 York - Sajjha Evs
3.20 Ascot - Primevere 7/4
3.55 Ascot - Keys 6/5
Treble on above pays 12/1
Wednesday, 20 July 2011
Big Chris leaves India trembling
World number 1 test team India play England in a four test series, starting this Thursday at the home of cricket. This mouth watering series will be played in front of a huge international audience, due to the popularity of the game in the sub continent and let’s not forget the added spice of Sachin Tendulkar, in what is likely to be his last tour of England searching for his 100th international century.
The last time both teams met on English soil in 2007, a close rain affected three match series was won 1-0 by India.
India arrive in England on the back of a 1-0, three match series victory in the West Indies (with a number of first choice players missing) and under the guidance of former England coach Duncan Fletcher.
For England, the summer really starts here after the dour 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka. The question is: Can England use home advantage to rise to the challenge of beating arguably the best assembled batting line-up in World cricket and reach the summit of the ICC Test rankings?
England would seem to have several factors in their favour for the series, the early swinging conditions with batsmen still adjusting to the vagaries of the infamous slope at Lords, plus the English-style pitches at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston will play into the hands of England’s seam attack. India don’t appear to have had a meticulous preparation for the series with only a three day match against Somerset where they performed poorly, Duncan Fletcher may be assuming that his experience in coaching England for several years already gives them enough of a tactical edge but it could take time for the team to acclimatise. Adding to India’s problems is the injury of Vivender Sehwag who is likely to miss the first two tests whilst continuing to recover from a shoulder injury, this coupled with Fletcher’s teams tending to start slowly, especially on foreign soil, means England have the chance to get off to a flyer.
Both teams’ strength comes in the form of their batting line-ups with strong openers and middle orders. Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott are difficult to get away from the crease and have been in impervious test form for the last year or so meanwhile for India Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Gautam Gambhir all averaging over fifty in test format. The strong batting along with the changeable British weather is likely to mean that the series will be close and there could be a couple of drawn matches if the bowling attacks aren’t in top form, picking a top batsman especially for the Indians is a tough prospect and the likely odds offer no stand out value.
In terms of bowling Chris Tremlett is the man in form for England with 15 wickets in the series against the Sri Lankans and has previous form against India taking 13 wickets in his debut series in the 2007, he has vastly improved since and can trouble them again with his extra bounce, so take the 3/1 available for top England bowler.
As we think the series could be a tight affair the key to winning lies in a quick start and England will have the advantage at Lords, combine this with their strong desire to reach the plateau of the ICC Test rankings and we think the value lies in backing England to win overall, starting with a win in the first test.
Selections
England to win the series at 5/4
England to win the 1st Test at 9/4
Chris Tremlett as top England bowler 3/1
Kumarbaz
The last time both teams met on English soil in 2007, a close rain affected three match series was won 1-0 by India.
India arrive in England on the back of a 1-0, three match series victory in the West Indies (with a number of first choice players missing) and under the guidance of former England coach Duncan Fletcher.
For England, the summer really starts here after the dour 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka. The question is: Can England use home advantage to rise to the challenge of beating arguably the best assembled batting line-up in World cricket and reach the summit of the ICC Test rankings?
England would seem to have several factors in their favour for the series, the early swinging conditions with batsmen still adjusting to the vagaries of the infamous slope at Lords, plus the English-style pitches at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston will play into the hands of England’s seam attack. India don’t appear to have had a meticulous preparation for the series with only a three day match against Somerset where they performed poorly, Duncan Fletcher may be assuming that his experience in coaching England for several years already gives them enough of a tactical edge but it could take time for the team to acclimatise. Adding to India’s problems is the injury of Vivender Sehwag who is likely to miss the first two tests whilst continuing to recover from a shoulder injury, this coupled with Fletcher’s teams tending to start slowly, especially on foreign soil, means England have the chance to get off to a flyer.
Both teams’ strength comes in the form of their batting line-ups with strong openers and middle orders. Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott are difficult to get away from the crease and have been in impervious test form for the last year or so meanwhile for India Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Gautam Gambhir all averaging over fifty in test format. The strong batting along with the changeable British weather is likely to mean that the series will be close and there could be a couple of drawn matches if the bowling attacks aren’t in top form, picking a top batsman especially for the Indians is a tough prospect and the likely odds offer no stand out value.
In terms of bowling Chris Tremlett is the man in form for England with 15 wickets in the series against the Sri Lankans and has previous form against India taking 13 wickets in his debut series in the 2007, he has vastly improved since and can trouble them again with his extra bounce, so take the 3/1 available for top England bowler.
As we think the series could be a tight affair the key to winning lies in a quick start and England will have the advantage at Lords, combine this with their strong desire to reach the plateau of the ICC Test rankings and we think the value lies in backing England to win overall, starting with a win in the first test.
Selections
England to win the series at 5/4
England to win the 1st Test at 9/4
Chris Tremlett as top England bowler 3/1
Kumarbaz
Friday, 15 July 2011
Lets make it a Heartbreaker
After last Saturday's spectacular fare over several courses this weekend is a more muted affair but there are still moneymaking opportunities out there. We rather hit the crossbar last weekend when our selections Modun and Bated Breath both finished 2nd to two of the most impressive performances of the Flat season thus far behind Green and Dream Ahead respectively - we intend to go all out for the win this time.
Sea of Heartbreak runs in the 2.35 Listed fillies contest at Newmarket and looks to have leading form claims. She hasn't won this year but ran up a four-timer when winning her maiden in 2009 and then in 3 subsequent runs in 2010, finally winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 85 with some ease. This year her form is rock solid with a 2nd in a Group 3 to 110 rated I'm A Dreamer, 4th in a Listed contest at Goodwood and most impressively a half length 2nd to the subsequent Group 1 Falmouth Stakes winner Timepiece. The opposition is interesting with Henry Cecil's German bred Wild Coco being unexposed and open to improvement & Never Forget being a Group 2 winner in France before joining luca Cumani this year. That said Sea of Heartbreak has run to a level form that should be good enough to win a Listed contest 3 times this year and at the prices available is crying out to be backed.
A change of track and a change of codes next where we see Market Rasen host its always excellent Summer Plate meeting. The first race at 2.05 is the Listed Handicap Summer Hurdle over 2 miles 1 furlong, it's competitive but that is reflected in the prices with many available at double figures. A common method of finding winners is to find an unexposed sort liable to improve past others but in a potentially rough race like this experience counts for a lot and we're going for the oldest of the lot in the quirky Gloucester. He loves big fields, having finished 6th and 10th in the Vincent O'Brien Hurdle at Cheltenham festival in the last 2 years, and is a strong traveller, with the front running Laterly likely to lead he should get the strong pace required. Unfortunately Gloucester often doesn't go through with its challenge but should be on offer at close to 40/1 on Betfair and is likely to trade at much shorter prices in running giving in running punters the chance to trade out for a handsome profit.
Finally the Group 3 6 furlong 2.20 race at Newbury sees the Wokingham winner Deacon Blues step up from handicap to pattern company for the first time. It is often said that the best sprint handicappers are of a similar standard to Listed & group race performers but Deacon Blues was drawn perfectly at Royal Ascot where being on the far side was key and his new 12 pounds higher mark of 107 may be flattering. Currently priced up as the favourite for this contest the value is in laying Deacon Blues for a place at odds on on Betfair - he may find solid company such as Markab & Regal Parade a bit too hot to live with.
Selections
2.35 Newmarket - Sea of Heartbreak at 13/2
2.05 Market Rasen - Gloucester ew at 25/1 and back at bigger odds on Betfair to lay in running at 10/1 & shorter
2.20 at Newbury - Lay Deacon Blues for a place at 1.8 and shorter on Betfair
Sea of Heartbreak runs in the 2.35 Listed fillies contest at Newmarket and looks to have leading form claims. She hasn't won this year but ran up a four-timer when winning her maiden in 2009 and then in 3 subsequent runs in 2010, finally winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 85 with some ease. This year her form is rock solid with a 2nd in a Group 3 to 110 rated I'm A Dreamer, 4th in a Listed contest at Goodwood and most impressively a half length 2nd to the subsequent Group 1 Falmouth Stakes winner Timepiece. The opposition is interesting with Henry Cecil's German bred Wild Coco being unexposed and open to improvement & Never Forget being a Group 2 winner in France before joining luca Cumani this year. That said Sea of Heartbreak has run to a level form that should be good enough to win a Listed contest 3 times this year and at the prices available is crying out to be backed.
A change of track and a change of codes next where we see Market Rasen host its always excellent Summer Plate meeting. The first race at 2.05 is the Listed Handicap Summer Hurdle over 2 miles 1 furlong, it's competitive but that is reflected in the prices with many available at double figures. A common method of finding winners is to find an unexposed sort liable to improve past others but in a potentially rough race like this experience counts for a lot and we're going for the oldest of the lot in the quirky Gloucester. He loves big fields, having finished 6th and 10th in the Vincent O'Brien Hurdle at Cheltenham festival in the last 2 years, and is a strong traveller, with the front running Laterly likely to lead he should get the strong pace required. Unfortunately Gloucester often doesn't go through with its challenge but should be on offer at close to 40/1 on Betfair and is likely to trade at much shorter prices in running giving in running punters the chance to trade out for a handsome profit.
Finally the Group 3 6 furlong 2.20 race at Newbury sees the Wokingham winner Deacon Blues step up from handicap to pattern company for the first time. It is often said that the best sprint handicappers are of a similar standard to Listed & group race performers but Deacon Blues was drawn perfectly at Royal Ascot where being on the far side was key and his new 12 pounds higher mark of 107 may be flattering. Currently priced up as the favourite for this contest the value is in laying Deacon Blues for a place at odds on on Betfair - he may find solid company such as Markab & Regal Parade a bit too hot to live with.
Selections
2.35 Newmarket - Sea of Heartbreak at 13/2
2.05 Market Rasen - Gloucester ew at 25/1 and back at bigger odds on Betfair to lay in running at 10/1 & shorter
2.20 at Newbury - Lay Deacon Blues for a place at 1.8 and shorter on Betfair
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
Oh Oh Oh Open Golf
The year’s third major championship The Open begins Thursday at Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, England, and the course will be a huge challenge for all players where par saves could prove to be the recipe for success. This could lead to a very open event with the lead chopping and changing regularly. Rory McIlroy is rightly all the rage after his demolition job at the U.S Open, but this course should offer different challenges and not playing any competitive golf since his victory last month could prove to be a mistake. Without Tiger Woods in the field all of the media & viewing public will be focused on McIlroy and at the general odds on offer of around 7-1 his odds are a little too short. However Boylesports have gone to town on the markets offered for this tournament and are offering enhanced win only odds of 9/1 and at that price a small saver bet is sensible as if he turns up in the same form as when last seen he will be tough to beat.
The World Number One is England's own Luke Donald and he's bang in form having won the Scottish open at Castle View last week by four strokes showing he has the game to win on a links course against a competitive field including World Number 2 Lee Westwood. He is arguably the best putter and bunker player in the game and makes very few errors, this should give him a fantastic chance this week , he can be backed at a best price 12-1 with William Hill and this seems a fair price.
Charl Schwartzel is a man brimming with confidence after a stunning win at The U.S Masters sealed incredibly when he birdied the final four holes, this was followed up with a top ten finish at the U.S open proving he has the game to consistently compete in Major tournaments. His brilliant short game is a powerful weapon in the big events and seven European Tour wins to his name shows he's a great finisher too. Boylesports are offering each way pay outs on eight places, that makes backing each way with them a very attractive option, they offer Schwartzel at a juicy 50-1.
One last name to consider at a monumental price is Sean O'Hair available at 225-1 with Boylesports, a player who hasn't yet fulfilled his potential, he sits in the top 50 of the world rankings and crucially he has finished in the top 15 in three of his last six visits to the tournament proving he has the game for the Open, at such a big price he is worth a small wager.
In the markets available outside of the outright winner there looks to be some value available. The market for top Australian is interesting and Jason Day is on offer at 11/5 with Totesport. Day has finished in the top 10 of the last 3 majors including 2nd of the Masters and US Open, his main opposition comes in the form of Adam Scott but he hasn't a great Open record having competed 11 times and missing the cut 4 of those and only finishing inside the top 20 twice. Aaron Baddeley has missed the cut all 5 times he's competed and top golfer and former major winner Geoff Ogilvy looks unsuited to the competition having missed the cut 5 years in a row.
Selections
Luke Donald to win at 12/1 with William Hill
Charl Schwarzel each way at 50/1 with Boylesports (1/4 odds for 8 places)
Sean O'Hair each way at 225/1 with Boylesports
Jason Day to be top Australian at 11/5 with Totesport
Saver
Rory McIlroy at 9/1 in Boylesports enhanced win only market
With added contribution from Lee Hooper follow Lee on Twitter @LeeHooper1
The World Number One is England's own Luke Donald and he's bang in form having won the Scottish open at Castle View last week by four strokes showing he has the game to win on a links course against a competitive field including World Number 2 Lee Westwood. He is arguably the best putter and bunker player in the game and makes very few errors, this should give him a fantastic chance this week , he can be backed at a best price 12-1 with William Hill and this seems a fair price.
Charl Schwartzel is a man brimming with confidence after a stunning win at The U.S Masters sealed incredibly when he birdied the final four holes, this was followed up with a top ten finish at the U.S open proving he has the game to consistently compete in Major tournaments. His brilliant short game is a powerful weapon in the big events and seven European Tour wins to his name shows he's a great finisher too. Boylesports are offering each way pay outs on eight places, that makes backing each way with them a very attractive option, they offer Schwartzel at a juicy 50-1.
One last name to consider at a monumental price is Sean O'Hair available at 225-1 with Boylesports, a player who hasn't yet fulfilled his potential, he sits in the top 50 of the world rankings and crucially he has finished in the top 15 in three of his last six visits to the tournament proving he has the game for the Open, at such a big price he is worth a small wager.
In the markets available outside of the outright winner there looks to be some value available. The market for top Australian is interesting and Jason Day is on offer at 11/5 with Totesport. Day has finished in the top 10 of the last 3 majors including 2nd of the Masters and US Open, his main opposition comes in the form of Adam Scott but he hasn't a great Open record having competed 11 times and missing the cut 4 of those and only finishing inside the top 20 twice. Aaron Baddeley has missed the cut all 5 times he's competed and top golfer and former major winner Geoff Ogilvy looks unsuited to the competition having missed the cut 5 years in a row.
Selections
Luke Donald to win at 12/1 with William Hill
Charl Schwarzel each way at 50/1 with Boylesports (1/4 odds for 8 places)
Sean O'Hair each way at 225/1 with Boylesports
Jason Day to be top Australian at 11/5 with Totesport
Saver
Rory McIlroy at 9/1 in Boylesports enhanced win only market
With added contribution from Lee Hooper follow Lee on Twitter @LeeHooper1
Saturday, 9 July 2011
Getting Moore for your Money
Saturday 9th July sees a fixture nightmare for British horseracing with quality meetings at 4 different venues. The pileup has been caused by Newmarket's insistence on staging the Group 1 July Cup on a Saturday, unfortunately that means a clash with Ascot which stages the Group 2 Summer Mile, Chester with some good fare including a highly competitive Listed 7 furlong contest and one of York racecourse's biggest days the John Smith's raceday. The scheduling has been criticised by owners, trainers & jockeys alike including drawing strong criticism from Frankie Dettori - we fully concur but that shouldn't deter us from our aim of finding value from the day.
We start off in York's big race the John Smith's handicap over 10 furlongs and there is strong recent form and potential improvers in the field. The form of Beachfire, Lost In The Moment and Pekan Star ties together nicely and all three would have chances although the lightly raced Pekan Star seems to have the most progressive profile plus being trained by the in form Roger Varian (33% strike rate in last fortnight) doesn't harm his chances any. However odds of 4/1 suggest his chances haven't gone unnoticed and it should be noted that to value is often found by going against the weight of opinion.
To win these top heritage handicaps you often need a horse that has the potential to run in and win Group races and last year's winner Wigmore Hall proved this with a valuable win in Dubai, the horse drawn beside Pekan Star in stall 8 is Sir Michael Stoute's Modun and I think this could be the oft mentioned 'Group horse in a handicap'. Modun gave a horse called Udaba weight and a beating at Newbury in April over the same distance, Udabaa subsequently won a handicap by 6 lengths off a mark of 83 and then ran creditably and finished third in a Newmarket handicap off of 92. Modun ran poorly at Royal Ascot but had excuses, Stoute's team were struggling badly for winners plus the step up to a mile and a half plus soft ground didn't play to the horse's strengths. The stable form has returned with 2 winners at Newmarket yesterday and Ryan Moore should be able to get the horse settled off a likely strong pace and we fully expect to see him deliver his mount with a winning run around 2 furlongs out. William Hill are offering best prices on nearly every horse in the race so take advantage of the 9/1 available.
Elsewhere at Newmarket we see the final British leg of the Global Sprint challenge in the 6 furlong Darley July Cup. Godolphin's Delegator has been strongly fancied for the top 6 furlong races since an impressive winning return in the Duke of York stakes but missed out at Royal Ascot due to unsuitably soft ground. Its now been nearly 2 months since its last run but can clearly go well fresh, however the horses behind that day are much bigger prices here and I can see his price drifting during the day. The horse I like is Bated Breath, a colt of huge potential, that ran a good race to finish 5th in the Golden Jubilee on ground much too soft for his liking. Bated Breath had beaten the winner Society Rock earlier in the season and can prove connections belief in him today with a big win - as big as 11/1 is available on Betfair.
Selections
3.15 York - Modun 9/1 at William Hill
3.35 Newmarket - Bated Breath 11/1 on Betfair plus 11/4 for a place (top 3)
We start off in York's big race the John Smith's handicap over 10 furlongs and there is strong recent form and potential improvers in the field. The form of Beachfire, Lost In The Moment and Pekan Star ties together nicely and all three would have chances although the lightly raced Pekan Star seems to have the most progressive profile plus being trained by the in form Roger Varian (33% strike rate in last fortnight) doesn't harm his chances any. However odds of 4/1 suggest his chances haven't gone unnoticed and it should be noted that to value is often found by going against the weight of opinion.
To win these top heritage handicaps you often need a horse that has the potential to run in and win Group races and last year's winner Wigmore Hall proved this with a valuable win in Dubai, the horse drawn beside Pekan Star in stall 8 is Sir Michael Stoute's Modun and I think this could be the oft mentioned 'Group horse in a handicap'. Modun gave a horse called Udaba weight and a beating at Newbury in April over the same distance, Udabaa subsequently won a handicap by 6 lengths off a mark of 83 and then ran creditably and finished third in a Newmarket handicap off of 92. Modun ran poorly at Royal Ascot but had excuses, Stoute's team were struggling badly for winners plus the step up to a mile and a half plus soft ground didn't play to the horse's strengths. The stable form has returned with 2 winners at Newmarket yesterday and Ryan Moore should be able to get the horse settled off a likely strong pace and we fully expect to see him deliver his mount with a winning run around 2 furlongs out. William Hill are offering best prices on nearly every horse in the race so take advantage of the 9/1 available.
Elsewhere at Newmarket we see the final British leg of the Global Sprint challenge in the 6 furlong Darley July Cup. Godolphin's Delegator has been strongly fancied for the top 6 furlong races since an impressive winning return in the Duke of York stakes but missed out at Royal Ascot due to unsuitably soft ground. Its now been nearly 2 months since its last run but can clearly go well fresh, however the horses behind that day are much bigger prices here and I can see his price drifting during the day. The horse I like is Bated Breath, a colt of huge potential, that ran a good race to finish 5th in the Golden Jubilee on ground much too soft for his liking. Bated Breath had beaten the winner Society Rock earlier in the season and can prove connections belief in him today with a big win - as big as 11/1 is available on Betfair.
Selections
3.15 York - Modun 9/1 at William Hill
3.35 Newmarket - Bated Breath 11/1 on Betfair plus 11/4 for a place (top 3)
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Cross your palms with Silverstone
Valencia wasn't the most entertaining race Formula 1 has ever produced and we now move from the new to the old as the F1 circus moves to Silverstone.
There have been plenty of changes made to the circuit in the last two years and this year will see the start/finish straight moved as well as the new pit complex which will provide the drivers with a new challenge; albeit one they will come to terms with reasonably quickly during the practice sessions.
Without sounding like a broken record, there is only one man to beat in qualifying and we once again take Sebastian Vettel at 1/2 to leave his rivals in the shade.
Although the rule change banning blown diffusers will hurt the Red Bulls, they should still be strong enough to be the class of the field and 1/2 for a Red Bull to be the race winner also looks like an attractive bet.
It's time for Lewis Hamilton to make some headlines on the track for the right reasons and even if there is a genuine possibility of him moving on from McLaren, he is professional enough to put that to one side and put in a strong performance in front of his home fans. Back him to reach the podium at 4/6, he should score points at the least but at cramped odds of 1/7 its impossible to back.
Nico Rosberg enjoyed a podium finish here last year and with Mercedes showing some strong form, not to mention Schumacher beginning to show his class, we expect Rosberg to step up and score points at 4/11, responding to a couple of strong races from the seven-times world champion.
Our outsider to watch this weekend, and taking into account weather forecasts that predict some rain around is Jaime Alguersari, who has been in decent form recently and could be a good bet to make it to the points at 11/4.
One more thing to look out for and if you're into your in-running betting, then Jenson Button is available at 12/1 to win the Grand Prix in most places. In changeable weather conditions, he steps up, so look to back now, and lay it off at potentially much shorter prices if it rains.
Selections
Vettel to take pole at 1/2
Red Bull as winning car at 1/2
Hamilton to make it on to the podium at 4/6
Rosberg to score points 4/11
Alguersari to score points at 11/4
Button to win the race at 12/1 but look to lay at shorter prices if rain comes
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
There have been plenty of changes made to the circuit in the last two years and this year will see the start/finish straight moved as well as the new pit complex which will provide the drivers with a new challenge; albeit one they will come to terms with reasonably quickly during the practice sessions.
Without sounding like a broken record, there is only one man to beat in qualifying and we once again take Sebastian Vettel at 1/2 to leave his rivals in the shade.
Although the rule change banning blown diffusers will hurt the Red Bulls, they should still be strong enough to be the class of the field and 1/2 for a Red Bull to be the race winner also looks like an attractive bet.
It's time for Lewis Hamilton to make some headlines on the track for the right reasons and even if there is a genuine possibility of him moving on from McLaren, he is professional enough to put that to one side and put in a strong performance in front of his home fans. Back him to reach the podium at 4/6, he should score points at the least but at cramped odds of 1/7 its impossible to back.
Nico Rosberg enjoyed a podium finish here last year and with Mercedes showing some strong form, not to mention Schumacher beginning to show his class, we expect Rosberg to step up and score points at 4/11, responding to a couple of strong races from the seven-times world champion.
Our outsider to watch this weekend, and taking into account weather forecasts that predict some rain around is Jaime Alguersari, who has been in decent form recently and could be a good bet to make it to the points at 11/4.
One more thing to look out for and if you're into your in-running betting, then Jenson Button is available at 12/1 to win the Grand Prix in most places. In changeable weather conditions, he steps up, so look to back now, and lay it off at potentially much shorter prices if it rains.
Selections
Vettel to take pole at 1/2
Red Bull as winning car at 1/2
Hamilton to make it on to the podium at 4/6
Rosberg to score points 4/11
Alguersari to score points at 11/4
Button to win the race at 12/1 but look to lay at shorter prices if rain comes
John Pennington of http://www.thelunchwatchman.com/ writes for www.likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com
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