Royal Ascot 2013 - Pick the Rite one in Gold Cup

Tuesday's Royal Ascot was a big let down for us with Animal Kingdom completely flopping in the Queen Anne (no explanation for the poor show has been forthcoming) & Reckless Abandon hanging in the latter stages of the King's Stand. It was certainly a disappointing start but Thursday is Gold Cup day & the UK's premier race for stayers looks to offer some value whilst we also think an outsider could outrun its odds in the Britannia Stakes.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

An outstanding showing of 18 runners for this Group One event over two & a half miles & 11 of the runners have official ratings of 112 upwards to show the strength in depth of the race. That strength in depth means you can get 6/1 for the favourite (likely to be the Queen's filly Estimate) & plenty of nice prices elsewhere in the field & we like the 7/1 available about the hugely talented, unfortunately fragile, former winner Rite Of Passage.

(Rite Of Passage is tenacious & classy - what's not to like?)

Dermot Weld's 9 year old won the race in game fashion on today's good to firm ground in 2010 yet has only made it to the track twice since, once in 2011 & again just once in 2012 when winning at the track in October against a high quality field. From just five true flat runs (ignoring bumper races) Rite Of Passage has won 4 races & finished 3rd the other time (to the awesome Fame And Glory) - that's some record & the horse, thankfully, doesn't take much racing so looks likely to put up a serious challenge here.

We're not too keen on Estimate's chances although she's clearly a very nice filly & she gets allowances both for her age & gender meaning she gets 5 pounds off the older horses. We just think that the ground may be against her as sire Monsun tends to get horses with a nice round action that go better with a little cut in the ground & her most impressive display came on soft ground when destroying the field last year here in the Queen's Vase. Her price may just be a little shorter than it should be thanks to her owner (remember all the hype with Carlton House?) & we fear others more including Opinion Poll & Francois Doumen's Top Trip who could come good over this testing trip.

With a proposed run out at the Curragh cancelled the build up to the race could have been better for Rite Of Passage but there's no better horse in the race so odds of 7/1 look very fair indeed & warrant a decent wager.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Britannia Stakes

There's no doubt about it, our next selection is a risky one but how could it be anything else in a 30 runner, one mile charge up the straight course? The pick is Ebn Arab at odds of 40/1 so that risk also offers a potentially hefty reward.

(Charlie Hills sends out Ebn Arab for the Brittania Handicap)

Charlie Hills' charge has looked imperious in wins at York (on debut) & Doncaster (seasonal debut) but has disappointed in his other three, admittedly fairly hot, races. Those wins came when the ground was pretty quick & that's what we think could make the difference here with the Dixie Union colt bred to appreciate a rattlingly quick surface & clearly not handling the step up in trip, stiff finish & soft ground at Sandown last time out. At Doncaster he seemed to enjoy travelling with a bit of cover, even though only a four runner affair, & should be able to find some cover in this big field & if settling could be on a very nice mark of 100 as we had the impression of a pattern performer before his blowout last time.

There are plenty of questions to answer & lots of opposition but Bet365 offer 5 places & odds of 40/1 about Ebn Arab & those terms are tempting enough to advise an each way bet.

Selections:
3.45 Royal Ascot - Rite Of Passage to win at 7/1 (Various)
4.25 Royal Ascot - Ebn Arab each way at 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Just can't resist the Animal Magnetism

Royal Ascot is just about the creme de la creme of British flat racing with other meetings such as Newmarket's Champions Day offering up some top class racing but not being able to match the quantity & quality of Ascot's racing year after year. With the usual reasonable selection of international challengers 2013 looks likely to throw up some great races & give a good indication of just how good some of the home trained stars really are.

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

Kicking off the meeting are three Group Ones in a row & the first race may well see the best horse the meeting has to offer as it features US challenger Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner & this year's convincing Dubai World Cup winner.

(Beautiful beast Animal Kingdom can prove too classy in the opener)

This really doesn't have to be a long preview to convince anyone that Animal Kingdom is the beast to back, last year was a difficult one with training difficulties meaning trainer Graham Motion could get just 2 runs under the horses belt; one in February & then much later in the year with a very creditable 2nd in the always high class Breeders' Cup Mile where top European miler Excelebration was in behind. Animal Kingdom hasn't ever won at a distance as short as a mile & that is a slight concern but lack of pace isn't a problem as evidenced when tearing up the final half mile of the Kentucky Derby in a time only bettered by all-time great Secretariat.

Far less of a concern to Animal Kingdom backers are his rivals here with maybe only a couple of the other challengers looking like genuine Group One contenders. Elusive Kate certainly deserves her place in the lineup & John Gosden's filly is twice a winner at the top level already as well as being placed at Group One level another 4 times & she is an extremely solid each way bet especially if the favourite were to underperform. Other than Elusive Kate we like the look of the progressive older horse Trade Storm; a horse that really flourished in Dubai this winter & ended up starting favourite for the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. David Simcock's 5 year old makes more appeal than Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, that one started a ludicrously priced 5/4 favourite for the Lockinge in early May after Group 3 & Listed race wins against mediocre (for the grade) opposition, & was promptly swept aside & finished a well back 5th.

At Evens it's well worth siding with Animal Kingdom to show its class & win here & add his name to an illustrious roll of honour that inlcudes, over the past 3 years: Paco Boy; Canford Cliffs; Goldikova & Frankel. Comfortable on all surfaces & able to run well without too much racing he's by far the best horse in the race on form & that's borne out by the fact he's 10 pounds clear on official ratings - get on!

3.05 - King's Stand Stakes

As one of the 10 races in the Global Sprint Challenge the King's Stand & has seen numerous international challengers take the prize (6 times in the last 8 runnings) & that helps explain why South African raider Shea Shea is a warm favourite to win here.

(5 furlong champion claims await Clive Cox's Reckless Abandon if he can win here)

Shea Shea was certainly impressive in Dubai last time out, taking the Al Quoz Sprint & setting a track record in the process but two races before that didn't run his race at all & finihsed 7th to one of today's rivals Medicean Man. We like Medicean Man a lot but he's probably not a true Group One horse & it may be that Shea Shea just needed the run there, he's been off the track now for nearly 3 months & if he thrives with racing this might be a little too competitive to trust his fitness at short odds.

The selection for us has to be Reckless Abandon who was challenging up with Dawn Approach as the most exciting & impressive juvenile of 2012 with 5 wins from 5 starts & two Group 2's & two Group One's in the mix. Chucked in at the deep end against older horses on his first start this season Clive Cox's 3 year old ran a fine race in defeat in Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes, he raced on the unfavoured side of the track there & had a Group One penalty to contend with yet finished just a neck & a head behind the winner when claiming 3rd.

With a run just about 4 weeks ago under his belt Reckless Abandon should be spot on for this, 5 furlongs looks the horse's ideal distance (we think) & odds of 5/1 even allow each way betting for the timid amongst us - we think a win bet will suffice though & a small forecast with the impressive last time out Spirit Quartz could be a fun bet too.

Selections:
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes - Animal Kingdom to win at Evens (General)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to win at 5/1 (Boylesports, StanJames & 888Sport)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to beat Spirit Quartz forecast

Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)