Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

Talented Tigers can savage Toothless Tractor Boys

We haven't been inspired by the football betting in recent weeks & plenty of teams across the divisions have lacked consistency making betting a dangerous proposition. We've gone for one Championship game this Saturday as we look for a nice odds against win.

Ipswich Town vs Hull City

In the Championship promotion chasing Hull travel down to Ipswich to take on Mick McCarthy's Tractor Boys who have shut down opposing teams' attackers down impressively since the turn of the year with just 7 goals conceded in their last 15 games & clean sheets in their last 5. It won't be easy for Steve Bruce's men but this is the kind of game that they will feel they'll need to win if they are to close out automatic promotion.

(George Boyd - a man without conviction...?)

Ipswich have enjoyed a real turnaround since dismissing Paul Jewell & bringing in proven Championship manager Mick McCarthy (we've always felt McCarthy lacks the ability to attract true Premier League quality players to his sides). McCarthy has concentrated on ensuring Ipswich have a sound base to build on & even though it has come at a cost to their goal creation & scoring (lowest goal tally in Championship with just 40 in 41) it has proven to be a successful tactic. Ipswich have been a little lucky in their last two games though with Derby hitting the woodwork & missing a penalty last time & Millwall only denied by the woodwork as well. Much of their run of good defensive performances in 2013 came with West Ham loanee Stephen Henderson in goal but he's now left & Scott Loach is back between the posts. Loach has played very well in these last 3 games since Henderson returned to the Hammers but it's unlikely he's at the level of Henderson overall & it is a downgrade at the no.1 position. At the attacking end of the pitch Ipswich are again weakened by a loanee's time coming to an end with David McGoldrick now unavailable & that means they look a little toothless at the business end of the pitch.

Hull are no defensive slouches themselves with only 46 goals finding their net even though they've had a couple of aberrations since January when conceding 4 to Bolton & Crystal Palace. In goal for the Tigers is Fulham loanee David Stockdale who was on loan at Ipswich last season & he was in decent nick as Hull overcame woefully out of form Middlesbrough last Saturday & it looks likely he won't be caused too much trouble as Ipswich employ their somewhat reductive approach. Hull do occasionally look like they struggle to break teams down though & it was no surprise to see them pick up attacker George Boyd on loan in February with Sone Aluko ruled out for some time with injury. Boyd offers inventive play & an eye for goal & he's got 4 in 8 to repay the faith shown in him so far & he along with Hull's Egyptian contingent & creative lynchpin Robert Koren need to take the game to Ipswich here. Hull looked flat last weekend after defeat to promotion rivals Watford in midweek but they have had a week to prepare for this & we expect to see them fired up & they can take the away victory at odds of 13/8 with 888sport. We also like the enhanced odds available by backing Hull to win without conceding & that's on offer at 13/4 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Hull City to beat Ipswich Town at 13/8 (888sport)
Hull City to win to nil at 13/4 (Ladbrokes)

Grand National 2013 - Get ready to bow for Balthazar King

The Grand National is THE annual betting event & it's always a great spectacle, we're taking a look at this year's renewal & seeing which horses really stand out from a value perspective. We love a bit of flat racing too & that's starting to get underway with the first two Classics of the season the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas just a month away & we should be previewing that as well - keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter along with our other 1600+ followers @LikeBuyingMoney


Aintree 4.15 Saturday - The Grand National

(Balthazar King (winning at Cheltenham) knows how to jump unconventional fences & loves a stamina test - ideal for the Grand National)

You'll hear the same things every year about the National with plenty saying it's a lottery & anything could win but although we've seen three winners at 33/1 or bigger in the last 6 years the overall trend is that horses near the top of the market tend to go well & in general you want a horse aged between 9 & 10 although the odd 12 year old can win.

The horse that really interests us here is Balthazar King - a horse that hasn't competed at any distances less than 2m7f for the past three years & has undertaken some big time stamina tests over unusual obstacles in three of his last four runs when taking part in 3m7f chases on Cheltenham's cross country course. Of course the slopes & fences on that cross country course aren't Grand National fences but they do show Balthazar King can cope with a jumping challenge & is improving (fell on his first try over them but finished 1st & then 2nd) the next two times along with a win on Cheltenham's standard course in that four race sequence too.

Aintree is a far flatter track than Cheltenham & quite a different test but this race requires stamina & Balthazar King has that in abundance, with 10 stone 12 pounds on his back in this race compared to 11-8 last time this will feel easy in comparison for the 9 year old gelding, he goes well fresh too which eases any worries about 141 days off the track. The weights for the race were specially framed some time ago & we reckon the handicapper would like Balthazar King to carry a little more weight if he could reassess the field today, at odds of 20/1 Balthazar King looks a great value bet.

(Cappa Bleu - high class & very rarely out of the frame)

We were keen on the chances of Cappa Bleu last year & Evan Williams' horse is surely in with a top chance again this time especially when you see that Seabass is ahead of him in the market but only finished one place ahead last time & is now giving Cappa Bleu 9 pounds of weight compared to 2 in 2012. Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for an 11 year old with just 11 runs under rules but has a Cheltenham Festival win (the Foxhunters) & has finished placed in 8 of the 9 races he's finished (fallen once in the Hennessy & pulled up once over hurdles at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival). With such consistency & the way he travelled around the course last year we've got to have Cappa Bleu as one of our runners at odds of 12/1, if Paul Moloney doesn't give him such a tender ride this time he'll be bang there near the finish.

Other horses to respect include: Imperial Commander - winner of the 2010 Gold Cup; Chicago Grey - another who looks laced with stamina; likely favourite On His Own - representing the powerful Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh trainer-jockey partnership; & as outsiders we'd suggest Viking Blond (off a feather weight) & Joncol - a two-time Grade One winner both have a live chance of placing.

Selections:
Balthazar King each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Cappa Bleu each way at 12/1 (Coral & William Hill)