Williams's Wimbledon to Lose

Tennis & Wimbledon is down to the semi final stage & it looks to us that the winner of the men's section is going to come from the huge Federer v Djokovic match & whoever can prevail from Serena Williams & Victoria Azarenka's game should prove too strong in the women's section. There have been some reasonable odds available over the tournament & looking at head to head records between opponents is key to gaining a betting edge, Roger Federer's straight sets victory over Youzhny was eminently predictable when you saw that they had met each other on 9 occasions with Youzhny picking up just 3 sets in those 9 matches.

(Serena Williams jumping for joy & we will be too if she can beat Victoria Azarenka 2-0)

Serena Williams was looking back to her imperious best in her quarter final victory over defending champion Petra Kvitova, who herself had looked a likely winner before succumbing to Williams' bludgeoning service game. It's difficult to believe that it's now two years since Williams' last Grand Slam victory, here at Wimbledon in 2010, but she's had some serious medical problems & it is probably only just about now that she's feeling really confident to push herself & get the maximum out of her body. Things shouldn't be easy for Serena against this year's Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka who finds herself in the semifinal for the 2nd year in a row. It's often said that the first big title is the most difficult to achieve in sport but once that hurdle is overcome competitors mentality can change & they can overcome hurdles they previously would have faltered at, Azarenka will hope that is the case but from 8 meetings with Serena she has only been victorious the once, back in 2009. In their only Wimbledon meeting (2010) Serena slammed Azarenka 6-2, 6-3 & other than her one loss to her, she's only dropped one set to Azarenka in the other 7 matches, in their most recent meeting, on clay in the Madrid Open final, Serena won convincingly 6-1, 6-3 & her serve was working similarly well there.

Azarenka has a really solid all round game but we're unconvinced she has enough to be a 'great' & that is what is needed to beat someone like Williams when she's on form, we can't see Azarenka getting too many break points whilst Williams serve is looking so good plus Serena reckons she's been returning much better in practice than in matches & if she brings that this could be another dominant victory. Odds of 6/4 for Serena Williams to win in straight sets looks to be underestimating the 13 times Grand Slam singles winner & she should win the tournament outright too, rather than take the 23/20 on offer though back her to win here 2-0 & then double that money up with another easy victory in the final.

(Novak Djokovic is now the sport's dominant force & he can land another Wimbledon title)

It's been great to see Roger Federer play some outstanding tennis again here at Wimbledon in 2012 but the truth of the matter is that he is now on the way down, admittedly there's no other way that he could go after reaching the giddy height's of true sport greatness. Federer has now only reached one Grand Slam final in his last 9 tournaments after being pretty much unstoppable from 2004 through 2009, Novak Djokovic has picked up the 'unbeatable' mantle though & has won 4 of the last 6 Grand Slam tournaments. Djokovic made the breakthrough at the highest level in the 2008 Australian Open but he took another three years before picking up his next but he won them all apart from the Rafa Nadal benefit that is the French Open in 2011. Novak has carried his tremendous form into 2012 & he picked up his 3rd Australian before reaching his first French Open final & after he lost there many people were fancying Rafa Nadal to follow up here, however now that he's out we think the 'Djoker' only has to hold things together to win here again.

From 2011 onwards Djokovic & Federer have faced off 7 times & Djokovic has been victorious on 6 of those occasions, winning 4 of those in straight sets including last time out at Roland Garros. A straight sets win at odds of 2/1 is a tempting bet for Djokovic but you have to respect Federer as a 6 times champion & with great crowd support he can get one set, odds of 14/5 with SportingBet for Djokovic to win 3-1 make this the bet. Neither Andy Murray nor Jo-Wilfried Tsonga look to us to have the temperament just yet to win a major & both suffered scary moments in their quarter final matches, therefore odds of 8/11 for a Djokovic tournament win look pretty big to us, he will be a much shorter price whoever he aces if he can progress past Federer.

Selections:

Serena Williams to beat Victoria Azarenka 2-0 at 6/4 (Bet365)

Novak Djokovic to beat Roger Federer 3-1 at 14/5 (SportingBet)

Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon at 8/11 (SkyBet & Ladbrokes)

Murray can hit the big time down under

The Australia Open is now into the latter stages with some of the quarter finals already played, we like a bit of tennis here at Like Buying Money Towers & have what we think are a couple of good selections for glory in th first Grand Slam tournament of the year.

(Petra Kvitova can gain the second Major win of her career)

We were keen on Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon & the 21 year old Czech really delivered showing none of the nerves she apparently had on receiving the trophy, she's the real up & coming star of women's tennis & can show that with a win here. She should take care of the unseeded but still useful Sara Errani in the quarters & will then face one of the two Russians in either Sharapova or Makarova. Kvitova would be favourite to beat either & we think she'll have a big advantage as it could be a real battle between those two. That would mean a final against either the grunting Victoria Azarenka or crowd favourite Kim Clijsters, neither of them necessarily has the game to really work Kvitova's biggest weakness which is her speed & she'd be odds on if getting there. We're not saying it will be easy but we definitely want to side with a player on th upgrade & already a Grand Slam winner & odds of 7/4 for Kvitova to win look very fair.

In the men's draw it looks likely to be the same old faces in the final four with one semi between rivals Rafa Nadal & Roger Federer already set up & Novak Djokovic & Andy Murray very much expected to deal with inferior opposition in their quarter finals. To be fair it wouldn't be the biggest upset of all time to see David Ferrer get the better of Djokovic, he's very solid & reached the semi final last year but the Serb is a level above & really should progress. The Australian Open was Djokovic's first Grand Slam victory back in 2008 & he followed up with a win last year & the first sign that he was going to have one of the most incredible years in men's tennis history with another two Grand Slam victories. Djokovic's form did drop off at the end of last year, largely as a result of the sheer amount of games he played & maybe taking his foot off the gas but it did at least show him to be beatable & as impressive as he's been he did drop a set against Hewitt in his last game, we don't want to take the short odds of him winning again.

(Is Andy Murray's new coach Ivan Lendl the key to him reaching the top?)

Nadal had a real battle in his quarter against Berdych with the game lasting 4 hours & that should give Federer an advantage over him but in all likelihood their game is going to be tough & tiring physically & emotionally whoever wins. Andy Murray is the outsider of the 4 at 11/2 & it is understandable as he is the one without a Grand Slam title & has to get past Djokovic if he makes the semi but we think he offers the best value by far especially now that he's linked up with Ivan Lendl as his coach. Lendl is an all-time great player with 8 Grand Slams & may be able to give Murray the winning mentality he needs to break through & become the best, already Murray's game is changing & he says he's standing closer to the baseline - that should make him more aggressive & attacking, going out to win rather than not lose. The Brit started a little slowly in the tournament  hasn't faced a seeded rival yet but the tournament is a marathon not a sprint & he should be feeling fresh & confident. At the moment Djokovic is better than Murray but their head to head record is close, with the Serb leading 6-4, so Murray certainly wouldn't be a huge underdog if they face off & we'd foresee a tight match. If Murray succeeds in the semi we think he'd beat either of the other two, he has won more games than he's lost against Federer & although Nadal has the better of their meetings Murray came out on top the last time they met, in the Japan Open final. Quite simply Andy Murray has been underrated here in contrast to how he's so often been overrated in the past; he's ready to make the step up & should be backed at 11/2 to win.

Selections:
Petra Kvitova to win Women's Australian Open at 7/4 (General)
Andy Murray to win Men's Australian Open at 11/2 (Boylesports & Stan James)

ATP Tour Finals - Murray can shine in O2 Arena

The gruelling mens tennis season comes to a climax with the ATP World Tour Finals in London contested by the top eight ranked players in the world & this year it looks like the top eight really are the players you'd pick as the best without looking at the rankings. Of course the 'big four' are here with world number one Novak Djokovic facing off against Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray & Roger Federer. The supporting cast isn't so bad either with the ultra fit David Ferrer, powerful & entertaining Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, hard-hitting all rounder Thomas Berdych & super server Mardy Fish from the United States. The set up of the tournament with the round robin group element before the semi finals means that players need to be fit & mentally tough as they may have to face an opponent who's already defeated them earlier in the tournament. We're looking at the chances of the contenders & picking who we think has the best chance at the odds available.

It's only right to start with Novak Djokovic who has had one of the greatest ever years of any tennis player with three grand slam victories & 64 victories & just 4 losses, it's particularly impressive as this is an era with huge depth in the men's game but it may be that he's feeling the effects of progressing so far in so many tournaments. He got knocked out of the Swiss Indoors at the start of the month by world number 183 Kei Nishikori & had to retire when facing Murray in the final of the Western & Southern Open in September. If Djokovic is fully fit & ready to go for this he could make the 9/2 available look very silly but we're not keen on taking the risk with the format going against him.

(Big serving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get through Group B at the O2 Arena)

Rafael Nadal is 4th favourite for the tournament & the world number two is a dominant force when on his game but he's only made the final of this season finale once, last year when he lost in 3 sets to Roger Federer, he's a general price of 5/1 but 6/1 can be found. The odds available for Nadal don't appeal, especially as Group B also contains old rival Federer & Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who recently met each other in the final of the Paris Masters showing them to be in good form. That was just the 2nd Masters Series final for Tsonga & although he lost to Federer he's an awkward opponent for anyone to face & the hard courts are definitely his favoured service, 10 of the 11 finals he's made over his career have been on hard courts & we can see him progressing through the group stage at Nadal's expense & odds of 16/1 for the win are certainly tempting but the best bet is for Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8.

Roger Federer has fallen to 4th in the world rankings & there is a train of thought that he's on an inexorable slide but Federer himself will be aiming for more grand slam titles over the next few years & making a final, two semis & a quarter final this year in the majors isn't bad work. Federer's won year-end championships 5 times including last year here in London & it's easy to see why the bookmakers have made him favourite at a general price of 15/8 with Boylesports going a standout 21/10. We think that Federer should progress as winner of his group as he's shown he has the beating of Tsonga recently & on a hard court surface he has an edge over arch rival Nadal & he could go all the way to the final but may find the home boy Andy Murray spoiling his end of season celebrations.

(Andy Murray can pick up a big win in the end of season Championships before his Grand Slam push in 2012)

Andy Murray has consistently performed to a high level in 2011 reaching at least the semi finals in all 4 grand slams, cementing his place in the top 4 & with his win at the Shanghai Masters he moved up to number 3 past Federer. Murray will take great confidence from that win in China & it may be that this can be the tournament when he really gains the confidence needed to take into 2012 to make a real push for that elusive first grand slam win. Murray is another player who is best on hard courst as shown by his final appearances in the Australian Open & at Flushing Meadows, he's looking fit & has long moved on from the endurance problems he suffered from early in his career. Murray's fitness can help him have an edge over Djokovic in his group match, his counter-punching style means it won't be easy for Djokovic to hit the big winners he does against other players & if Murray beats him he'll expect to come out top in the group. If Murray comes wins Group A we'd expect him to be up against Tsonga who he has a great record on tour against, meeting him 5 times & winning the last 4, plus he is up against Federer in head to heads & seems to have the game to handle him. Murray hasn't fared so well against Nadal though having faced him 5 times this year & only having won the once, he can't match him on clay but this hard court gives Murray every chance especially with his great recent form. Murray still needs to improve, mainly on the mental & attacking sides of his game, if he's going to win a grand slam event but he's not far away & winning here in front of a home crowd could push him to the next level, this is a big tournament but he's ready to step up & take it & odds of 3/1 for Murray to be victorious should be taken.

Selections:
Andy Murray to win ATP Tour Finals outright at 3/1 (general)

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8 (Stan James & Ladbrokes)

Bouncing through to the quarters

Monday sees the start of the fourth round at Wimbledon and the final 16 players in both gender's championships. The nature of tennis matches, with there being only 2 possible winners, means that there are often cramped odds available and realistically only big hitters can take advantage - however if you can combine several winners even smaller punters can enjoy a payday. We're going to try to find these selections today.

Starting off with Djokovic to beat Michael Llodra at 1/12 should give a winning start - Djokovic has only lost one game (in the French Open semi-final) all year and isn't about to lose to doubles specialist and World 35 Llodra.

Next up and Feliciano Lopez is a very fair price at 1/3 to beat Lukasz Kubot. Lopez is a two time quarter finalist at Wimbledon as is ranked 37 versus Kubot at 93.

Last year's losing finalist Thomas Berdych is our final male selection and is taken to beat the American Mardy Fish. Mardy Fish is a hard court specialist and won his 3rd round match after Robin Haase retired, Berdych meanwhile looked in good form winning in straight sets - 4/9 are the odds.

Caroline Wozniacki is the women's number 1 and odds of 1/4 indicate the dominance that she should have over Dominika Cibulkova the current world 23. Wozniacki has never been past the 4th round before but this should be her 1st time, her counter attacking style should see her win points both with and against the serve with regularity.

Petra Kvitova is a player on the up on her highest ranking of 8th in the world and was a semi finalist last year, she is likely to prove a tough match for anyone this time round - her unlucky opponent here is Belgium's Yanina Wickmayer. This is Wickmayer's first time past the 2nd round, she had a good 2-1 victory over Kuznetsova last time and won't go down without a fight but the potential of Kvitova is much more and Wickmayer may well be the 1st of 4 opponents to fall by Kvitova's hand in the coming week. Kvitova at 1/3 and we fancy her to do it in straight sets at 5/6.

If we combine these morsels (minus the Kvitova 2-0) we get a tasty bet paying odds of around 5/2 with Boylesports.

Selections:

Djokovic to beat Llodra - 1/12
Lopez to beat Kubot - 1/3
Berdych to beat Fish - 4/9
Wozniacki to beat Cibulkova - 1/4
Kvitova to beat Wickmayer - 1/3
(Above combined pays £34.77 to a £10 outlay)
Kvitova to beat Wickmayer 2-0 - 5/6

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Soderling and Hewitt to serve up a treat

The remainder of the round 2 matches will be played tomorrow (Thursday). SW19 will be entertained by Serena Willaims, Roger Federer, Caroline Wozniacki and Robin Soderling.

Our first pick of the day is former world number 5 Fernando Gonzalez, the Chilean, making his way back up the World rankings following surgery on a hip and knee injury is pitted against South African Rik de Voest. Olympic medalist Gonzalez should prove too much for the 31 year old right handed player who is yet to reach the third round of any major tournament.

Our next choice is Melinda Czink. Czink dumped 10th seed Samantha Stosur out of the first round in straight sets, she is drawn against Anastasiya Yakimova of the Belarus in round 2. Czink, a former World top 40 player, was impressive in the dispatching of Stosur conceding just 7 games. We think she'll have too much for Yakimova who has previously fallen at this hurdle five times.

World Number 20 Shuai Peng meets British number 1 Elena Baltacha, both players have modest records at Wimbledon and will see this as a perfect opportunity to progress. Peng has previously beaten a selection of the worlds top females and should beat Ukrainian born Baltacha even with the majority of the crowd against her, Peng finally broke into the world top 20 after an impressive run in the 2011 French Open - a tournament she had to retire from through illness when facing reigning champion Francesca Schivone.

The Serbian and former World number 5 Ana Ivanovic faces 28 year old Greek player Eleni Daniilidou. A semi finalist back in 2007 Ivanovic comes into the tournament on the back off some poor form having only reached round three in her previous 5 tournaments. Daniilidou a former top 20 ranked player has enough to cause Ivanovic problems. We think that Ivanovic will eventually win the match however the Greek can certainly take a set.

Lleyton Hewitt, former World number 1 and 2002 Wimbledon winner plays fifth seed, Swede Robin Soderling in one of the games of the day, the pairing is the first match on centre court. Soderling comes into the tournament off of the back of 3 2011 tour titles and a quarter final defeat to the eventual French Open winner Rafael Nadal. Hewitt however withdrew from the Roland Garros tournament and expects to have to play with 'unrelenting' foot pain. We are expecting a close encounter with the eventual winner likely to face Bernard Tomic in round 3.

A 16 year old Tomic rejected the opportuinty to practice with Hewitt during 2009's Wimbledon much to the disbelief of Hewitt and his physio, Tomic's then trainer Rudy Sopko claimed that Hewitt was 'not good enough', since the spat the pair have shown little sign of reconcilliation and Hewitt will want to progress to prove a point against the now 18 year old. Despite a potential fairytale story for Hewitt, Soderling's form and ability and the question marks over Hewitt's fitness should see the Swede progress to round 3.

Selection -

Back Fernando Gonzalez to beat Rik de Voest at 4/9 3pts
Back Melinda Czink to beat Anastasiya Yakimova at 8/13 3pts
Back Shuai Peng to beat Elena Baltacha at 8/15 3pts
Back Ana Ivanovic to beat Eleni Daniilidou 2-1 at 4/1 1pt
Back Robin Soderling to beat Lleyton Hewitt at 3/10 3pts
Back Robin Soderling to beat Lleyton Hewitt 3-1 at 13/5 1.5pts
Back Bernard Tomic to beat Igor Andreev at 1/2 4pts

likebuyingmoney

Wimbledon Day Two 'dedeuced'

1/100, 1/66, 1/50. Just not worth backing. They are the odds offered in these first couple of rounds at Wimbledon in some instances such is the gulf between the worlds elite and the 'also rans'. Set, total game, correct match score and total game betting offer 'value' backers with some solace.

Looking beyond the matches involving the likely winners of both the men's and women's tournament however does offer some value in the match markets. We've studied the form and history to come up with our selections for day two of Wimbledon seeking to find a range options for you to back.

The winner of the match between Adrian Mannarino and Irishman Conor Niland will face Swiss supermo Roger Federer in round two. Mannarino goes into the contest as favourite and should have too much for the World Number 184 from Limerick.

World Number 21 Nikolay Davydenko seems overpriced (7/5) against the 18 year old Bernard Tomic. Davydenko is far better on other surfaces however the 5 ft 10 Russian should provide tough opposition to Tomic who exited in the first round 12 months ago.

Bulgarian Number 1 woman Tsvetana Pironkova looks a huge price against 18 year old Italian Camila Giorgi (177 in the World Rankings). We think the Plovdiv based player should win this contest in straight sets. Klara Zakapolova also beats Emily Webley-Smith 2-0. The Czech player reached round four last year and will be looking to dispatch Webley-Smith (ranked 247) comfortably.

Selections -

Back Adrian Mannarino to beat Conor Niland at 2/5 3pts
Back Nikolay Davydenko to beat Bernard Tomic at 7/5 1.5pts
Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat James Blake 3-1 at 2/1 2pts
Back Ivan Dodig to beat Ryan Harrison at 4/9 2pts
Back Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Camila Giorgi at 4/9 3.5pts
Back Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Camila Giorgi 2-0 at Evens 2pts
Back Klara Zakopalova to beat Emily Webley-Smith at 2/9 4pts
Back Klara Zakopalova to beat Emily Webley-Smith 2-0 at 8/15 2.5pts

El Jugador

Li Na to make a 'racket' at SW19

On the 20^th June the first ball will be served in earnest in the 125^th Wimbledon Championships. The title of Women’s Singles Champion looks wide open, current odds show that that the eight most likely women to succeed are priced up between 9/2 and 16/1 suggesting fierce competition at The All England Lawn Tennis Club.

The 21^st Century has been dominated by the Williams sisters; Venus and Serena have racked up 8 of the 10 available ladies singles titles since 2000, only Russian Maria Sharapova (2004) and the now retired Amelie Mauresmo (2006) have been able to break the sisters’ resolve. With Serena having played very little tennis in the past 12 months due to her being on her ‘death bed’ (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/13755914.stm) and Venus struggling to fend off Andrea Petkovic in the first round of the Aegon International it suggests maybe to find this year’s winner you have to look beyond the American pair.

As well as the Williams sisters, strong cases can be made for Sharapova, Wozniacki and 21 year old Czech player Kvitova but we like World Number 4 Li Na. The Chinese 29 year old comes into the Championships in good form and has a decent record against the majority of her rivals (some of her most impressive tennis came when defeating both Kvitova and Sharapova in the 2011 French Open).

One player we suggest to avoid backing is Belgian Kim Clijsters. Clijsters has never reached the final of the Women’s singles at SW19, and she’s recently back from an injury that kept her out for two months. This Championship may come too soon for the current World number 2 as she regains full fitness. Clijsters hasn’t warmed up well for the tournament suffering defeat to world number 82 Romina Oprandi at the Unicef Open earlier today.

Our selections –

Lay Kim Clijsters outright winner (15.0) 1.5pt
Lay Kim Clijsters vs top 32 seeds (variable odds) 1 pt

Back Li Na  (9.0) and Petra Kvitova (12.5) each 0.5pt

El Jugador