Hurdles no Obstacle to Betting Gold

For many people the Olympics pretty much reads as Athletics & we have to say that the classic running, jumping & throwing events are the ones that we want to see, not many remember the general Joes who win sailing or shooting golds but everyone knows the 100m winner. We're starting out with the hurdles where we reckon there is gold to be made from gambling.

(Aries Merritt getting the better of Xiang in the World Indoor Championships earlier this year)

The 110m hurdles has been just about the most fiercely competitive event over the last few years in men's athletics & the two fastest men of all time & the previous two Olympic champions Liu Xiang (2004) & Dayron Robles (2008) are both up for the race this time. Team GB also have a contender here as Andy Turner won bronze in last year's controversial World Championship race where first past the post Dayron Robles was disqualified after holding the Chinese athlete Xiang back. Turner really would have to up his pace to go with these guys though & it may be that the two USA hurdlers, World Champion Jason Richardson & the new boss in town Aries Merritt are the two men to beat here.

Merritt & Richardson look to be the two competitors on their way up & with Merritt having set the three fastest times this year (all at 12.93s) all in the last month he is peaking absolutley perfectly & rates our best bet of the games. Colin Jackson's world record of 12.91 seconds stood for 13 years & still only 4 men have bettered it & that shows just how outstandingly Merritt is hurdling at the moment to have consistently pushed that mark, we think that if conditions are right then he could make a real push for Robles' record of 12.87s. Robles hasn't been at his imperious best this year & Liu Xiang has had injury problems for a long time now, it is 8 years since his Athens gold & he didn't even end up taking his chance in the first round heat when posterboy for the Beijing Olympics. Xiang is still capable of running lightning quick times but his consistency is shot to pieces & his best days are behind him, he won his heat in the competition at Crystal Palace recently, in a somewhat slower time than Aries Merritt & then didn't compete in the final, he also recently moved his training camp to France from the UK after complaining of the cold weather, we think that if there is money to lay on the exchanges at short odds for Xiang to get a place then take him on as he could end up not even making the final.

(Kellie Wells was looking good at Crystal Palace as she inflicted Sally Pearson's 1st defeat in 33 races)

In the women's hurdles (over the shorter 100m format) the Australian Sally Pearson has been the dominant force for the past 2 or so years & was even named Female Athlete of the Year by the IAAF in 2011, but she was beaten fair & square at the Crystal Palace meet by the American Kellie Wells just two weeks ago & that competitor looks to be the value here. Pearson didn't look like she had the raw speed of Wells oce put under pressure over the final three hurdles & although her team said she'd just had treatment for a back injury that wouldn't guarantee her a turnaround in the Olympic stadium. Wells ran a blinding 12.54s following up her best from 2011 when she ran 12.50s, Pearson is capable of running quicker than that & ducking under 12.5 iis probably key to winning gold here but it looked to our eyes like belief came flooding into Kellie Wells when she won at Crystal Palace & at 30 years old this is surely her last Olympic chance & we like her odds of taking it. Totesport are offering each way terms of 1/3 odds for the first two places & at 4/1 they look the firm to bet with, we fancy Kellie Wells to win but she should almost certainly get 2nd if executing correctly & that looks a sure fire each way bet.

(Dai Greene's World Championship win from 2011)

In the men's 400m hurdles Britain's Athletics captain, & the 2011 World Champion, Dai Greene will be looking to beat Kriss Akabusi's 20 year old national record & push for a gold medal. Greene recently set his fastest ever time in Paris but still finished behind the favourite for this event in Cuba's Javier Culson, it won't be an easy task for Greene to overturn Culson but he's certainly one of Team GB's brightest gold medal hopes in the Athletics. Greene won the World Championship last year (video above) by finishing well, as is his way, & he ran down Culson in the straight but the time really wasn't special & the Cuban has had his measure in recent races. Even though Greene ran his two best times in recent races & is peaking at the right time he still finished behind Javier ulson on both occasions & Culson looks to be in total control of his performances at the moment & we think he can run quite a bit faster in London, odds of 5/4 are fair. We feel it's between Greene & Culson because even though Angelo Taylor is a legend in the sport & two time gold medallist (2000 & 2008) he looks to be some way past his best at the age of 34 & it's asking too much for him to win here. We reckon that Culson & Aries Merritt in the 110m distance can form a nice betting double at odds a little over 3/1.

Selections:
Aries Merritt to win 110m Hurdles at 5/4 (Boylesports & Bodog)
Lay Liu Xiang for a top 3 place in 110m Hurdles at 1.30 & shorter (Betfair)
Kellie Wells each way for 100m Hurdles at 4/1 (Totesport) 1/3 odds 1-2
Javier Culson to win 400m Hurdles at 5/4 (Skybet & Youwin)
Aries Merritt & Javier Culson double in the men's hurdles

Gold-en Oldie Chris Hoy & his Wheels of Steel

The London 2012 Olympics are just about upon us now & we're certain to see record levels of betting on the events, especially in the UK, but punters must be wary about letting patriotism & hype get the better of them. Over the past few weeks we've been taking a look at times & performances from competitors in various events & are bringing to you below some specific bets in the cycling to start with plus some general pointers towards having a successful time punting over the two weeks of competition.

(Chris Hoy has been selected as Team GB's flag carrier & is a worthy favourite for the Keirin)

The Cycling events are ones where Team GB will be looking to score big with several golds & multiple medals throughout as they look to follow up a wildly successful Beijing & a super World Championships in 2012 where Australia gained the same amount of golds but topped the table thanks to silvers won. We're going against our general rule of avoiding returning gold medalists here but  the odds of 4/5 for the great Olympian Chris Hoy to win the Keirin probably underestimate just how good he is at the event. With Jason Kenny taking the only place for GB in the Sprint that means Hoy only has this to think about & train for this in the individual events & the flag carrier can add to his impressive haul of 4 Keirin World Championships & one Olympic gold in the event.

(Peter Sagan is one cool cat & the 2012 Tour de France green jersey winner can push for Olympic gold)

Elsewhere in the cycling we reckon that Bet365 are taking a big old risk by pricing Tour de France green jersey winner Peter Sagan up at 8/1 for the Road Race & offering 1/4 odds for the first three places. The 'Terminator' is probably the most exciting young prospect around at the age of 22 & although Mark Cavendish deserves maximum respect & is a worthy favourite we think it looks fanciful for the Slovakian Sagan to finish outside of the medal places & he won't be far off Cavendish even if the Brit can win. Back Sagan each way at 8/1 & guarantee yourself a return with a good potential for the outright win.

General Olympic Betting Pointers:

Beware events decided by judges scoring rather than measurable & quantifiable methods. There are many events at the Olympics that aren't decided by who's quickest, can throw the furthest, jump the highest, lift the heaviest etc. & events outside of these have the extra tricky element of trying to predict what the judges are looking for on top of how the competitor will perform on the day. There have been many instances of questionable & at times basically corrupt judging through Olympic history & whilst we shouldn't be facing the same difficulties as seen during the Cold War period, we just don't like the idea of leaving our gambling fate to the judges if we can possibly help it. Events to be wary of include Gymnastics, Diving, Equestrian, Boxing & any other combat events (Judo, Taekwondo, Wrestling).

Avoid competitors attempting to repeat previous gold medal success. There are reasons there are so few Olympians who have multiple gold medals in the same event from multiple games - the Olympics is the absolute pinnacle of achievement for most of the events & once someone reaches that pinnacle it is difficult to repeat that achievement 4 years, or more, later. Bodies change over time & that's why you see many racing competitors change the distances they race at slightly in order to try to keep being successful. Not too many Olympians win their first gold when they are raw youngsters either meaning by the time they return they have gone over the hump of their physical peak. High profile previous champions returning here, trying to capture gold again, include Usain Bolt (100m & 200m), Liu Xiang (110m hurdles 2004), Dayron Robles (110m hurdles 2008), Christine Ohuruogu (400m), LaShawn Merritt (400m), Victoria Pendleton (cycling - sprint), Andreas Throkildsen (Javelin).

Selections:
Chris Hoy to win the Keirin at 4/5 (Bwin & Youwin)
Peter Sagan each way at 8/1 (Bet 365) 1/4 odds 1-2-3