England vs Pakistan - Test Series

Next Tuesday sees the start of a three match Test series between England & Pakistan in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. It's the first time the sides have met since a plot by ex-captain Salman Butt & fast bowlers Mohammad Asif & Mohammad Amir to bowl deliberate no balls for financial rewards nearly 18 months ago.

(Test matches to be played in beautiful surroundings, but how full will the stadiums be?) 

The 1st & 3rd Tests are played in Dubai at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium with the 2nd hosted in the Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi. Both grounds have held only two Test matches each; one in 2010 (Pakistan vs South Africa) & the other in 2011 (Pakistan vs Sri Lanka). Three of the Test matches ended in draws & only one result was possible when Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by nine wickets in Dubai. A total of 4,868 runs were scored with 110 wickets taken (at an average of 44 runs per wicket) so both sides are going to have to work extremely hard to take 20 wickets & force a result.

England are the number one ranked side in the Test ranking after comprehensively beating India last summer 4-0. But away from home in the southern hemisphere will prove a sterner task for the side. The touring squad was as expected but they have lost Tim Bresnan to injury, therefore the debate for Andy Flower is whether they stick with the tried & tested attack of three seamers & one spinner or play the 2nd spinner in Monty Panesar.

Pakistan have regrouped as a team after all the scandals & are a highly competitive side under the leadership of Misah-ul-Haq. Pakistan easily won their test series in Bangladash 2-0 with openers Mohammad Hafeez & Taufeeq Umar hitting hundreds & Younis Kahn 200 not out in the first Test. And in their last home series (well new home) they came out on top against Sri Lanka 1-0 in the three match series.

(Who will come out on top in the head-to-head battle between Graeme Swann & Saeed Ajmal?)

All in all we are anticipating a tight affair with the bat dominating the ball. The fact that 20 wickets will need to be taken to win a match means an intriguing duel, between the two outstanding spinners, Graeme Swann & Saeed Ajmal with the winner likely to give his side the edge. We expect Swann to win the contest & with the steer weigh of runs tabled by a strong English batting line-up...England will win the series but not without a drawn match or two.

(The outstanding Alastair Cook is likely to be raising his bat in celebration throughout the series)

In terms of individual players markets we can't ignore the 7/2 available on Alastair Cook being Top England batsman. He had an outstanding 2011 starting with the end of the Ashes tour & continuing throughout the English summer where he scored 927 runs in 11 innings at an average of 84.27. He has carried his form into the warm up matches with scores of 133 & 76. The fact he opens the batting means he'll have the maximum time to compile his runs as the batsmen down the order can only sit & wait as he undoubtedly cashes in.

Selections:
England to win the series at 6/5 (Blue Square/Stan James)
England to win the series 1-0 at 9/2 (Bet365 & Skybet)
Alastair Cook being Top England Batsman at 7/2 (various)

India vs England ODI Series

After a hugely successful summer for English cricket, which saw them crowned Number One Test side in the world, they embark on a tough winter schedule, beginning this Friday with the first of five One Day International against India in Hyderabad. England put India to the sword in the recent series in both Test & ODI's but India at home with their fanatical fans are a very different proposition.

India are the current World Champions at the 50-over format & have a formidable home record with only the Australians in 2009 & 2007 defeating them in their last 13 home ODI series. England’s last two tours have seen an aggregate score of 11-1 in favour of India with the 2008/09 series ending 5-0, with two matches abandoned saving them from further embarrassment. These days England are a stronger unit & made of sterner stuff with a number of exciting emerging talents thrown into the mix although with their weakened bowling attack (see further on), including lack of decent spin options excluding the magnificent Graeme Swann, we feel India have the edge in what should be an competitive & close series at the best price of 8/11.

There are a huge range of other markets aside from the outright series win & we have found a few standout betting opportunities in the top Indian batsman & top English bowler markets.

(Virat Kohli can help edge India to victory in their own backyard)

The top four in the betting for top Indian batsman are Gautam Gambhir, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane & Suresh Raina. Both Gambhir & Raina are hugely talented batmen but struggled against England all summer, not seeming to have any answers against the English bowlers, but should do better under these different conditions, however we feel they still aren't viable betting options. Rahane has an average of 31.60 with one 50 in his five International ODI caps & is still finding his feet in international cricket. So the pick has to be Kohli who is still available at a best price of 4/1 despite being shorter at a number of firms. He hit 107 in the last ODI in Cardiff & has continued his fine form in the Champions League playing for the Royal Challengers Bangalore with scores of 70 & 84 not out in the semi final.

The England attack is weakened due to the injured Stuart Board & rested James Anderson missing. They have a number of inexperienced bowlers at this level in Steven Finn, Chris Woakes, Scott Borthwick & Stuart Meaker (11 caps between them) fighting it out to support the established three of Graeme Swann, Tim Bresnan & Jade Dernbach. Swann is undoubtedly the best spinner in the world currently but the Indians are fantastic players of spin & he is too short at around 2/1 whilst Bresnan will keep things tight economically but won't take a huge amount of wickets on the batsmen friendly pitches. Our selection is Jade Dernbach who has made himself a vital part of the England attack in the last year with his excellent array of slower balls. These variations will be used in the power plays & end of the innings, increasing his chances of a number of cheap wickets whilst the batsmen are looking to take advantage of the fielding restrictions.

It should be a fascinating hard fought series with India taking the honours by the odd victory to gain some revenge for their humbling defeat this English summer.

Selections:
India to beat England in the ODI Series at 8/11 (Victor Chandler)
India to win the series 3-2 at 2/1 (General)
Virat Kohli to be top Indian batsman at 4/1 (Stan James/Skybet/Boylesports)

Jade Dernbach to be top England bowler at 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

Big Chris leaves India trembling

World number 1 test team India play England in a four test series, starting this Thursday at the home of cricket. This mouth watering series will be played in front of a huge international audience, due to the popularity of the game in the sub continent and let’s not forget the added spice of Sachin Tendulkar, in what is likely to be his last tour of England searching for his 100th international century.

The last time both teams met on English soil in 2007, a close rain affected three match series was won 1-0 by India.

India arrive in England on the back of a 1-0, three match series victory in the West Indies (with a number of first choice players missing) and under the guidance of former England coach Duncan Fletcher.

For England, the summer really starts here after the dour 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka. The question is: Can England use home advantage to rise to the challenge of beating arguably the best assembled batting line-up in World cricket and reach the summit of the ICC Test rankings?

England would seem to have several factors in their favour for the series, the early swinging conditions with batsmen still adjusting to the vagaries of the infamous slope at Lords, plus the English-style pitches at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston will play into the hands of England’s seam attack. India don’t appear to have had a meticulous preparation for the series with only a three day match against Somerset where they performed poorly, Duncan Fletcher may be assuming that his experience in coaching England for several years already gives them enough of a tactical edge but it could take time for the team to acclimatise. Adding to India’s problems is the injury of Vivender Sehwag who is likely to miss the first two tests whilst continuing to recover from a shoulder injury, this coupled with Fletcher’s teams tending to start slowly, especially on foreign soil, means England have the chance to get off to a flyer.

Both teams’ strength comes in the form of their batting line-ups with strong openers and middle orders. Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott are difficult to get away from the crease and have been in impervious test form for the last year or so meanwhile for India Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Gautam Gambhir all averaging over fifty in test format. The strong batting along with the changeable British weather is likely to mean that the series will be close and there could be a couple of drawn matches if the bowling attacks aren’t in top form, picking a top batsman especially for the Indians is a tough prospect and the likely odds offer no stand out value.

In terms of bowling Chris Tremlett is the man in form for England with 15 wickets in the series against the Sri Lankans and has previous form against India taking 13 wickets in his debut series in the 2007, he has vastly improved since and can trouble them again with his extra bounce, so take the 3/1 available for top England bowler.

As we think the series could be a tight affair the key to winning lies in a quick start and England will have the advantage at Lords, combine this with their strong desire to reach the plateau of the ICC Test rankings and we think the value lies in backing England to win overall, starting with a win in the first test.

Selections

England to win the series at 5/4
England to win the 1st Test at 9/4
Chris Tremlett as top England bowler 3/1

Kumarbaz

England vs Sri Lanka ODI Series

Tuesday sees the start of the ODI series between England and Sri Lanka and gives us several betting angles to take on the series as a whole.

Although England won the recent rain affected Test series 1-0 that is likely to have less relevance than Saturday’s pointer in the T20 at Bristol which proves a slightly better indicator when it comes to the 50 over format. There Sri Lanka easily prevailed in a 9 wicket thumping and have had similar success in the past with a 10 wicket win in the recent World Cup quarter final and a 5-0 ODI series win when last in England.

Sri Lanka also have the individuals to make a difference with two top 10 ICC ranked batsmen (Dilshan and Sangakkara, 3rd & 5th respectively) versus England who just having the impressive Jonathan Trott in 8th. Although Graeme Swann (ranked 4th in World) is probably the outstanding bowler in the match up, in terms of strength in depth Sri Lanka again have the edge with Mendis and Kulasekara ranked 9th & 10th plus arguably their best bowler Malinga not even in the top 10. Whereas England’s bowlers behind Swann either lack consistency, fitness or current form and could struggle to take enough wickets to put the Sri Lankans under real pressure.

It therefore seems that we have a betting mismatch, England do have home advantage but if this were a neutral ground series we would expect to see Sri Lanka as slight favourites, therefore playing at home should shift this closer to 50/50. Instead current best odds are showing England as 8/11 favourites and Sri Lanka at 6/4, therefore take advantage and side with Sri Lanka from a pure value perspective.

Other popular markets are the Top Batsman and Bowler and there are some decent bets to be had here too.

Malinga ‘the Slinga’ is coming off taking the most wickets in a single IPL season and has retired from Test cricket which means he should be coming here fresher than some others. With previous form against England (13 wickets in last series) he should outperform the rest of the efficient although not spectacular bowling unit. Another advantage is that he bowls at the death and in the batting power plays leading to potential cheap wickets – 15/8 is available as top Sri Lankan bowler.

The Top England Batsman market is arguably a tight affair with a strong batting line up in reasonable form; arguments can be made for all of the frontrunners. Alistair Cook is arguably England’s best Test batsman with an excellent Ashes series behind him but there are still questions surrounding his ability to score quickly enough for the one day game and has the added burden of captaincy to carry. Batting lower down the order harms Bell’s and Morgan’s chances of being able to kick on with larger scores and Ian Bell seems to have a particular problem in converting opportunities into centuries (18 ODI 50s but just 1 ton plus). Kevin Pietersen is a mercurial talent and can rattle off quick scores and once in form tends to be red hot, if he gets going he could easily outscore the other runners by a margin. Jonathan Trott is machine-like in any form of the cricket with 11 50s in just 25 ODIs and a batting average of 55.65 versus Pietersen’s 40.98. Both are priced up similarly with Pietersen at a general best price of 4/1 and Trott available at Stan James at 9/2. Trott is available as short as 100/30 joint favourite in some places and the 9/2 is too tempting to miss out on.

Finally it should be noted that with a comprehensive 4-1 series win (or better) Sri Lanka have the opportunity to move 2nd in the ICC ODI rankings. Both the 4-1 and 5-0 series wins are worth small wagers with the whitewash available at best price of 33/1 and the 4-1 at 11/2.

Selections:

Series Outright: Sri Lanka 6/4 (Sportingbet & Victor Chandler)
Top Sri Lankan Series Bowler: Lasith Malinga 15/8 (Sportingbet)
Top England Series Batsman: Jonathan Trott 9/2 (Stan James)
Sri Lanka to win series 4-1 at 11/2 (Bet365 & Coral)
Sri Lanka to win series 5-0 at 33/1 (Victor Chandler & Boylesports)

Kumarbaz

Taunton offers T20 ‘Ton Tempter’

As one of the smallest first class cricket grounds in the world Somerset’s County Ground frequently serves up high scoring matches, particularly when it comes to the short form of the game. Paddy Power are offering 10/1 in T20 matches that a ton is scored in a specified match by either side, if this is going to happen then Taunton will most likely be the setting.

There are six more opportunities for a Somerset batsman, or for that matter one of their opponents to top three figures. Somerset’s only home T20 match this season saw the West Country outfit reach 235/5 with a plucky Middlesex response of 195/9, a clear indication that there’s plenty of chance for the batsmen to significantly up their average.

Somerset boast some of the most attacking talent in England, Marcus Trescothick, Craig Keiswetter, Peter Trego, James Hildreth and local lad Jos Buttler have all excelled in this competition before. The inclusion of the mercurial talent of South African Roelof Van der Merwe (51 from 22 balls vs Middlesex) adds to Somerset’s batting prowess. 

So far a 92, 89 and 86 have been individually scored at other grounds this season had these ‘knocks’ have happened at Taunton the likelihood, due to the size of the ground, would have resulted in a hundred being scored.

This is one certainly to keep an eye on. Somerset play Kent tomorrow (10th June) and then host another 4 teams throughout June prior to a final group match against arch rivals Gloucestershire who have played three and lost three so far in the 2011 competition. Perhaps they serve up the best opportunity for a ton to be scored.

The only negative with such a bet is the British weather – probably best to ensure a full match is likely before placing any bets, if you can be patient enough to wait for the toss I’d also suggest getting on this bet when Somerset are batting first. Along the same lines it is suggested to keep an eye out on the prices offered in-play when chasing 200+ down, regularly this is overpriced and offers punters a chance to clean up.

Selection – An individual ton to be scored in the T20 competition when Somerset are playing at Taunton (and batting first if possible). Available at around 10/1 with Paddy Power. 1 Pt stake.

El Jugador