NFL Antepost Preview 2013 - Falcons can soar to the Super Bowl

The 2013 NFL season is right upon us now & it looks like it could be one to savour with several teams making moves to challenge for the Super Bowl right now & the usual powerhouses still fielding strong sides. We're taking a look here at some of the best antepost bets for the season that will culminate in the Super Bowl on the first weekend in February 2014. Last year we gave the San Francisco 49ers to be the NFC champions at 7/1 & they duly obliged so hopefully we can pick out some more value here.

AFC

Denver Broncos

This year everybody has been talking about the Denver Broncos who start with legendary passer Peyton Manning for the 2nd year after his move across from Indianapolis after a serious injury & it's easy to see why the Broncos have been the talk of the league with several big moves. The addition of the prolific Wes Welker at receiver was probably the most eye-catching move; he's had over 1,000 receiving yards in 5 seasons & Manning will relish having him to pass to. Welker is 32 though & that's probably why the Patriots let him go, the Broncos are going all out for this season & that could put the pressure on from a very early stage. They've also added to their defense at the deep positions with the signings of the veteran safety Quentin Jammer & the excellent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback. We really like Rodgers-Cromartie who probably wasn't used to best effect at all times in his two years in Philadelphia but he was great at Arizona previously & could be a key player here.

(Von Miller is suspended for 6 games & that could cost Denver dearly)

It isn't all good for Denver though with their running game looking light now Willis McGahee has departed, it is a passing league now though so maybe they'll get away with it & just because teams know they'll pass a lot doesn't mean they'll be able to stop Peyton anyway! A bigger loss to the Broncos was that of their ace defensive end Elvis Dumervil who ended up going to Baltimore in part due to a late submission of paperwork by his agent. The worst news though was the suspension for 6 games (of their 16 game season) of their star defensive player, outside linebacker Von Miller for a substance violation. Miller is one of the league's very best players & with him missing it could mean the Bronco's don't end up winning quite enough games to be a top seed in the playoffs. The AFC West should still be a formality for them but without home advantage through the post-season their odds look short enough for the AFC & the Super Bowl so are reluctantly passed over.

Houston Texans

We were keen on outright glory for the Houston Texans last year & not too much has changed to think they shouldn't be right there again this year. They amassed an impressive 11 wins from their first 12 games last season before slumping at the end to 3 losses in 4 & missing the AFC's top seed that would have kept them at home throughout the playoffs which is key as they're a dome side meaning inclement winter weather can really harm their chances. Some labelled the Texans as 'soft' but we're not sure it was a choke & it's no coincidence the slide came when their dominant inside linebacker Brian Cushing was injured, we're certain if he'd stayed fit the story would have had a different outcome.

(The return of Brian Cushing from injury is great news for the Texans)

The Texans have some of the best players in key positions in the league with Arian Foster an elite running back, Andre Johnson an ace wide receiver, Brian Cushing as already mentioned & the 2012 defensive player fo the year J.J. Watts at defensive end. Add to that a very good offensive line, including maybe the game's best left tackle Duane Brown, & it's difficult to see how they won't end up close to 13 wins this year but many doubt the capabilities of the quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub doesn't have a reputation for being a 'clutch' player, meaning he doesn't come up with the plays in key situations often enough, but he's definitely highly talented as evidenced by him leading the league in key passer stats in 2009 (passing yards, completions, yards per game & attempts). If defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips can keep his young & hugely talented defense firing Schaub may not have to improve much anyway as they should always be in with a chance whilst keeping their opposition's scoring opportunities low.

At 7/1 to win the AFC Houston seem to be the value picks as we think the New England Patriots may eventually start to slow this year after being exceptional for so long & the Broncos are just to short in price. Of the other AFC contenders according to the bookmakers we don't think the Ravens will even win their division (we like the Bengals in the AFC North so that also rules out Pittsburgh who could end up with a losing season) & 2013 is too early for the improving Colts, Dolphins & Chiefs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC looks stronger than the AFC this year with powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers & Green Bay plus the impressive & improving Seattle Seahawks & always dangerous New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears but the only team we want to side with is the Atlanta Falcons.

(Steven Jackson - last piece in the Atlanta Falcons' jigsaw?)

The Falcons are just scary in the passing game with a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan helped out by an amazing receiver corps of the ever youthful Tony Gonzalez at tight end & Julio Jones & Roddy White at wide receiver. The latter two thrive in the NFL with the rules helping their style of play by very much favouring them against the cornerbacks who will be trying to stop them - it's possible we could see Matt Ryan throw for career high numbers this year with them to aim at. The big improvement on offense has been the capture of Steven Jackson from the Rams at running back & he should mean that they can run the ball & use up the clock once they establish their now customary leads in games. Getting pegged back late on due to their inability to pound the ball up the middle really hurt Atlanta last year & it could be key to them getting their number one seed this year & staying at the Georgia Dome where they are so dominant.

Atlanta have also tried to improve their defense this year & taken a gamble on the now veteran defensive end Osi Umenyiora from the Giants but if he stays fit he'll add another dimension to their play bringing real aggression & pressure on opposition QB's - along with Justin Babineaux at defensive tackle they could have a lot of sacks this year. They've also looked to upgrade at cornerback with their first two draft selections & Desmond Trufant looks like he could thrive in the professional game, with their safety positions already solid look out for a much improved defensive showing this year.

Again like the Texans in the AFC Atlanta just look the value here with Seattle & San Francisco too short as joint favourites considering they'll have to play each other twice in the regular season meaning dropped games & Green Bay need to improve a little defensively even though their offense remains incredible. Take big odds of 9/1 for Atlanta to win the NFC & even bigger odds of 18/1 for them to collect their Super Bowl rings in early 2014.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win AFC at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC at 9/1 (General) & to win Super Bowl at 18/1 (Paddy Power)

NFL Conference Championship Games - Big Guns to Fire

It's been a great NFL season this time around with some surprise packages but in general the best teams have made it through to the playoffs & this penultimate stage before the Super Bowl. We're previewing both the NFC & AFC games as we look for a few betting angles that offer some value against the bookmakers.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

The 49ers made it to this stage last year before suffering a bitter defeat at the last moment to the New York Giants whilst for the Falcons this is their first time in the championship game since the 2004 season & this is the first year they've won a single playoff game since then. Gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs was key the Falcons as they are a far better side when in the Georgia Dome & their pocket quarterback Matt Ryan gets to flight his passes to his excellent receivers.

(Legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez looks a good bet to score again)

Passing is definitely the strongest part of Atlanta's game with their all-time leading receiver Roddy White who has had 6 consecutive seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, their dominant 2nd season receiver the 6"3 Julio Jones who is a threat all over the field & one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Tony Gonzalez. Those 3 targets gained the vast majority of the teams receptions in the regular season & it was no different last week against Green Bay when they had 17 of the 24 completed catches for the Falcons. Michael Turner is a decent running back but the 49ers are so good against the run it will surely be their receivers that the Falcons will zone in on & Tony Gonzalez surely remains the safest option near the end zone - he can be backed at 11/8 to score at anytime.

The 49ers offense is much more geared to the run with Frank Gore being one of the league's top backs & the confusion that the running option gained by playing the athletic Colin Kaepernick has added to Gore's danger as well as gaining them yards on the ground from the quarterback position. San Francisco's offensive line really creates some big running holes & it's understandable why they don't go to the passing game as much as the other teams remaining in this year's playoffs but it sure must be frustrating for their receivers who are decent in their own right. Tight end Vernon Davis played a key role last season in their charge to this stage but he's had just a single reception in his last 5 games although it was a big 44 yarder last week. Michale Crabtree has emerged as their main receiver this year & he'll be backed up by the 35 year old veteran Randy Moss as Mario Manningham who proved useful during the early season is out with a torn ACL. Kaepernick is a decent passer but he needs to be careful with the ball here, unlike early on against the Packers last week where he threw a pick 6, especially as the Falcons strength on defense lies in their potential for turnovers with Asante Samuel & Thomas DeCoud being ballhawks in the back field.

(The 49ers ace offensive line can help them control the game throughout)

San Francisco will look to control this game by wearing down the average front seven of the Atlanta defense & that could be key as the 49ers are unlikely to get as much joy on defense in terms of pressuring the quarterback as they usually do as Matt Ryan's protection has been outstanding all season. The 49ers are 4th against the pass & run & 3rd overall in yards conceded during the season whereas the Falcons were one of the weaker defenses in yards given up (24th of 32) but outstanding in the red zone & were 5th best overall in points conceded - it won't be so easy to stop the 49ers pounding it in with their ace O-Line. We went for the 49ers to win the NFC in our season preview at 7/1 & we won't abandon them now, however rather than taking the short odds of 1/2 for the win we'd think there's more value in backing them to control the game & be winning at half time & full time at odds of 6/5.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game where the Patriots prevailed thanks to the Ravens' kicker Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yarder to tie things up with 11 seconds left. The Ravens will be looking to turnaround the outcome after that gut wrenching loss but it looks a very tough ask after their epic 2xovertime win at altitude against the Denver Broncos last week.

(Tom Brady & Wes Welker - how do you stop them?)

The Patriots have been the NFL's most successful team from the turn of the millennium with 5 Super Bowl appearances & they've won their division (AFC East) in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they overcame a somewhat indifferent start to the season, including a loss at the Ravens, to dominate down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games. Tom Brady has once again shown why he's one of the very best quarterbacks ever & the Patriots ranked 1st in points (a huge 34.8 per game) & yards gained, Brady threw for a massive 443 yards against the ace 49ers defense in week 15 & torched the Texans for 344 yards last week & this Ravens defense is not as good as in previous years so must be fearful. The Patriots will be without key player Rob Gronkowski but the tight end has only played twice since week 12 & they've coped without him, in part thanks to their improved running game (ranking 7th) led by Stevan Ridley & backed up by Shane Vereen & little Danny Woodhead.

The Patriots go to so many different receivers & hand the ball off to a variety of backs & that makes it difficult for opposition defenses & coaches to focus in on anything in particular but Wes Welker is the receiver to get the most action & he'll add to his 118 regular season receptions here. Tight end Aaron Hernandez may well be the receiver to get targeted when close to the end zone but both him & Welker are odds on to score at anytime & there looks to be little value in the game on the touchdown scorer front.

Baltimore have had to become more dangerous on offense this season as their defense has fallen back thanks to injuries & the problem of ageing but they've got to the playoffs once more & came up with a massive shock win against Denver last time. That victory versus the Broncos was helped thanks to some interceptions from Peyton Manning at crucial times which are incredibly rare & it looks a big ask for them to hope Brady will give up the same gifts. Joe Flacco has looked focused & hasn't thrown an interception so far in the playoffs & it has helped that his most reliable receiver Anquan Boldin has come to life in these past two games with over 200 yards. Flacco just looks a bit more relaxed than he has at other crucial times & although running back Ray Rice remains an integral part of the team it doesn't feel like too much is sitting on his shoulders as in previous years. They'll almost certainly put points on the board because the Patriots secondary remains vulnerable as always & with their offensive contribution this can be another high scoring encounter & this can top the quoted 51 points.

(The Ravens are looking for inspiration from number 52 Ray Lewis)

On defense the Ravens will be hoping that Ray Lewis can inspire them in potentially his final ever game after his announcement that he intends to retire this season, Lewis has performed well so far after comeback from injury but he may be one of the Baltimore players to feel the effects of that long game in Denver & the Ravens could fade in the second half. The Patriots are notoriously merciless even when opponents look beaten & that means the -8 point handicap they have to give up looks perfectly reasonable & they can beat it as they gain an easier win than in last season's nail-biting encounter.

Selections:
San Francisco to be winning at half time & full time vs Atlanta Falcons at 6/5 (BlueSquare & 888 Sport)
Tony Gonzalez to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/8 (Betfair)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Total Points to be over 51 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots to beat Baltimore Ravens with -8 point handicap at 10/11 (General)

Monday Night Football - Everton & Falcons can pick apart weary travellers

More Monday Night football action as we see a game between two of the Premier League's teams just off the top set when Everton host Newcastle United & an interesting game in the NFL as the defensively strong Denver Broncos try to slow down the passing hotshot that is Matt Ryan for the Atlanta Falcons. Both games are important even this early in the season as all four teams are looking to lay down a marker as they either push for Europe or a playoff place. We've previewed both games & come up with a pair of bets in each as we look to turn a tidy profit at the start of the week.

Everton vs Newcastle United

Everton started their season off at breakneck pace with wins against Manchester United & away to Aston Villa with Marouane Fellaini excelling in particular, they got brought down to earth with a bump when losing to West Brom though & face a tough game against Newcastle United as they look to bounce back. Newcastle will also be looking to improve after they rather huffed & puffed in a 1-1 draw with Villa at home & they have to make do without their good young keeper Tim Krul who picked up an injury on international duty & that is a setback as they haven't kept a clean sheet in the league yet.

(Technical supremo Steven Pienaar could be the key for Everton)

This could be a game where we see classic home & away roles with Newcastle coming with the intention of firstly stopping Everton, being reactive & forcing the Toffees to come forward with the ball, Newcastle know that they hold a threat whenever they come forwards thanks to their Senegalese strikeforce of Ba & Cisse. Everton tend to look a bit better when teams come at them as they have such a solid defence that they feel comfortable when attacked but in Steven Pienaar they have a player who can unlock the toughest defences when on form. With the signings of Kevin Mirallas & Steven Naismith they've added some additional quality & much needed extra options in attack & with the set piece danger from corners & Leighton Baines' free kicks they should be able to knock one past Steve Harper.

Newcastle will again be without their key midfield enforcer in Cheick Tiote & he's a big miss in games like this, if Pienaar gets time on the ball he should be able to create enough chances, even if Newcastle do defend deep, & Everton now have players who can put those chances away. Newcastle have already played 5 times thanks to their European commitments & they've got a Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday night, although this game will take priority Everton have the advantage & we like the 5/6 available for the home win. We do think Newcastle will make this tough though & a small wager on a correct score bet of 1-0 to Everton could be worth chancing at 13/2.

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

(Julio Jones is starting to emerge as a truly elite receiver for the Falcons)

The Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos go on the road to the Atlanta Falcons after a nice start when beating Pittsburgh at home in week one, this is a much different test though as the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league when in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have lost at home in the regular season just 6 times in the last 4 years (32 games) & quarterback Matt Ryan looks altogether more comfortable when playing inside - of course playing inside won't be a problem for Manning either having spent his career at Indianapolis.

Both teams looked good last week with Atlanta travelling to take on the Kansas City Chiefs & putting 40 points on the board with Ryan looking hugely efficient completing 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards & 3 touchdowns. Julio Jones was Ryan's main target & he looks like he could be about to move to another level of play at receiver & could be having a monstrous season in terms of receiving yards & touchdowns. The Broncos did well against the Steelers but did have the benefit of going up against their poor O-line & the Falcons are much better at protecting the passer, Pittsburgh also looked to struggle without Rashard Mendenhall at running back & the Fakcons have a dependable sort in Michael Turner. The big positive for Denver was clearly how well Manning has settle into the side & he already looks to have established a good understanding with his receivers with Demaryius homas, Eric Decker & Jacon Tamme all getting 5 receptions each - the Falcons' are a little weak in their secondary & this could be a shootout so we expect Peyton to put up yards through the air again.

(Peyton Manning links back up with tight end Jacob Tamme (no.84))

Although we do think this will be high scoring the total points line is high enough at 52 & instead the value looks to be had by siding with the Falcons as they only have to give up 3 points on the handicap - they are a tough proposition at home & can score touchdowns at will once they get into a rhythm. There is value to be had with a Denver touchdown scorer though as tight end Jacob Tamme is available at 6/4 to score a TD at anytime, he got one last week & Peyton Manning loves to aim for tight ends when in & around the red zone & links up with Tamme after previously being together at the Colts, even though we think Atlanta will win they are likely to concede a few points on the way.

Selections:
Everton to beat Newcastle United at 5/6 (Various)
Everton to beat Newcastle United 1-0 at 13/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Atlanta Falcons to beat Denver Broncos with -3.5 point handicap at 20/21 (William Hill)
Jacob Tamme to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Various)

NFL Wildcard Round - Steelers to dispose of Denver

Houston & New Orleans won their games on Saturday as expected & we're now on to the final two wildcard games with Denver hosting Pittsburgh & Atlanta travelling to New York to face the Giants, we think one of the underdogs can win but it shouldn't be Denver unless Tim Tebow really can get some divine intervention going!

(The scene that Steelers fans don't want to see - Roethlisberger on the ground)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Denver as 5th seeds to face the Broncos as 4th seeds in the AFC, that seeding doesn't really indicate the strength of these sides as Denver only had an 8 & 8 season in the mediocre AFC West whilst the Steelers had a great 12 & 4 season in the AFC's best division the AFC North, the Broncos automatically got seeded higher as tehy won their division. It should be noted that the Broncos have overachieved just by getting to the playoffs, after winning just 1 of their first 5 they turned to unorthodox quarterback Tim Tebow & won 7 of their next 8, often from unlikely positions after trailing with just moments left. Tebow has clearly helped them in clutch situations but it's rarely been through the use of his arm as the team trailed in 31st place in terms of passing yards but led the league in rushing yards, thanks to the quarterback option offense  the excellent back Willis McGahee who was just one yard shy of hitting 1200 on the ground. The Broncos only scored over 20 points in 3 of the 11 games since their bye week & that looks highly unlikely to be increased against the league's best defense, the Steelers are giving up just 14.2 points a game & less than 280 yards of total offense.

(Wide receiver Mike Wallace can continue to star for Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh have stars on both sides of the ball with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison & Brett Keisel standing out on defense & quarterback Ben Roethlisberger teaming up with his talented wide receiver corps on offense including Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders & the evergreen Hines Ward. The Steelers do have problems on offense though as Big Ben is suffering from a sprained ankle & first choice running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the playoffs with a torn ACL. They should be able to cope withour Mendenhall as they have a good backup in the powerful Isaac Redman but they need to keeep Roethlisberger as protected as possible against the Broncos very good pass rush. The real heroes in the Broncos push to the playoffs has been their defense with outstanding rookie linebacker Von Miller & defensive end Elvis Dumervil combining for 20 quaarterback sacks this year. The Steelers really will want to keep Ben as healthy as possible & hope his ankle recuperates as they go through the playoffs, we wouldn't be surprised to see them very aggresive early on in order to establish a commanding lead so they can remove him from the game. Antonio Brown has really started to establish himself in the Steelers' passing game & it wouldn't surprise us to see him get a touchdown but Mike Wallace is their number one at the moment  the 7/1 on him to score the first touchdown looks a nice bet. Denver scored just 3 points against the Chiefs in theirr final regular season game & it was one they were aiming to win, it looks like being an uphill struggle all day & Pittsburgh should be able to comfortably cover the -7.5 point spread on offer at 20/21 with Ladbrokes.

(Atlanta Falcons fans won't be complaining if they see catches like this from Julio Jones)

In the earlier game the Atlanta Falcons take their talented offense to face off against the 2008 Super Bowl winners the New York Giants. The historically strong Giants defense has not done too well this year, ranking only 27th overall & just 29th against the pass & that can largely be put down to some atrocious play against the deep pass, we think that spells trouble against the Falcons who ranked 8th in passing in the regular season & have potent threats in Roddy White & especially Julio Jones when they go down the field. With tight end Tony Gonzalez still hoovering up any short passes & Michael Turner doing it in the running game as well as when he comes out of the backfield the Falcons can move the ball anyway they want. The Falcons  do tend to be much better at home & the Giants are comingoff of two nice wins but it was only 3 weeks ago that they lost to the mediocre at best Washington Redskins & the Cowboys did somewhat implode (as usual) at the end of the season. Passer Eli Manning has carried their offensive game as they rank last in the rush & that isn't good news in the playoffs, having a one note game makes it easy to defend a team & we can't be having the Giants as favourites here. If the Falcons were at home we think they'd be strong favourites with the bookmakers, their away form is a little worrisome but they did win at Detroit earlier in the year which isn't easy & we want to be with the Falcons to beat the Giants at 6/4, in terms of touchdown scorers we think siding with Julio Jones at 9/1 to score the first touchdown is the way to go.

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Mike Wallace to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Steelers v Broncos game
Atlanta Falcons to beat New York Giants at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Julio Jones to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 (various) in Falcons v Giants game

Double up those touchdown scorers to get massive odds of 79/1

NFL Thursday - Jaguars can keep it close in the Falcons house

Week 15 in the NFL starts off with a game between the out of contention for the playoffs Jacksonville Jaguars & the Atlanta Falcons who are pushing hard for a playoff place. The Falcons still have an outside squeak of winning their division, the NFC South especially as they have to face division leaders New Orleans next week, but are very live contenders for a wildcard spot with their record currently sat at 8&5. We've looked at the game & picked our best bets, trying to seek a value edge as usual, we're trying to improve from Sunday's under points picks where the games went over the total points lines by the slimmest of margins! Join in the conversation & get notified of any new blogs we post by following us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney it's good fun & we always try to converse with our followers & take any questions.

(Maurice Jones-Drew can continue his quest for the rushing title in Atlanta)

Jacksonville are in a little bit of turmoil with head coach Jack Del Rio being fired just two weeks ago but they rallied under Mel Tucker last week & gave a real lesson to the Buccaneers of how press home the advantage when creating turnovers with a 41-14 win at home. Maurice-Jones Drew was immense in that game with 85 yards rushing & 4 touchdowns (2 rushing & 2 receiving) & he leads the league in rushing yards, it's no surprise as he basically is the Jaguars offense with rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert continuing to be untrustworthy in terms of accuracy. The Falcons have only limited Indianapolis to less than 14 points suggesting that the Jags should be able to get into the end zone at least a couple of times even though they're only averaging 14.8 points a game, Jones-Drew has scored in 5 of his last 6 games & the 4/9 on offer for him to score at anytime with Boylesports is worth a sizeable bet.

The Jaguars offense is less than special other than Jones-Drew but they do rank 4th best in yards given up per game on defense & they've only been beaten by 12 points or more on 3 occasions, 2 of those coming in the first 4 games. The Falcons have only beaten two teams this year by 12 points or more & one of those were the league worst Colts & the other being the pretty ordinary Panthers, therefore the 12 points that Jacksonville get on the handicap in this one look generous & they should be backed on that basis. We like the Falcons especially at home in the Georgia Dome, Matt Ryan has thrown for 23 TDs already & has a star receiver corps with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez & traded up for rookie Julio Jones all getting in the action, in the running game Michael Turner is one of the league's best. The Falcons are better than average defensively & offensively & we think they should win here but Jacksonville can at least keep it respectable, look to get the your wallets loaded for this weekend's games & oppose the home team.

Selections:
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Atlanta Falcons with +12 points on the handicap at 10/11 (several)
Maurice Jones-Drew to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/9 (Boylesports)

NFL Week 12 - Falcons to swoop on Vikings

We're really on the run in to the playoffs now with half of the divisions still wide open whilst four top place spots are either in or virtually in the bag, there are also the wild card playoff places to fight for & it means that virtually every game has a bearing on the championship picture. As always we're looking for the best value available in the week's games, we look at a wide range of markets to see where the bookmakers have got it wrong allowing us & you to exploit to make a tidy profit.

 (Evergreen Tony Gonzalez can celebrate another touchdown for Atlanta on their way to a clear victory over Minnesota)

The Atlanta Falcons are in a battle with New Orleans to secure 1st place in the NFC South & will be wanting to press their claims when they host the Minnesota Vikings who are floundering in the tough NFC North with just two wins all season & that was against poor sides in Arizona & Carolina. At the Georgia Dome the Falcons are a pretty scary team to face, they have lost twice at home this year but that was hosting Green Bay & New Orleans, they've only conceded over 20 points in one of their last five games after some slightly suspect defensive displays early on in the season, that improvement spells trouble for a Vikings side that rank 23rd in points scored. The Vikings will do well to get anything going offensively as their star player running back Adrian Peterson looks to be doubtful for the game & their passing game only ranks 28th in yards gained. Defensively Minnesota are very average & they don't tend to create many turnover opportunities, the Falcons have a great balanced offense & will look to take advantage with Michael Turner in the running game & by passing to Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez. Tight end Gonzalez is now 35 but is playing outstanding football as he has been since 1997, he's Matt Ryan's favourite target in the end zone & the Vikings give up more passing than rushing touchdowns, with 7 touchdowns already Gonzalez looks ace value to score the 1st touchdown at 7/1. With Peterson out it really is difficult to see how Minnesota can hurt the home side & Atlanta can cover the -8.5 point handicap on offer at Boylesports with ease.

For our second bet we're going to keep things exceedingly simple, the St. Louis Rams have scored a league worst 12 points per game & opponents the Arizona Cardinals just 19 a game (24th best), neither side is too bad defensively & this looks sure to be a very low scoring game, the under 39.5 total points should be taken at odds of 10/11. The sides met in week 9 & there were 32 points total, that included overtime & there's no reason to suggest it will be different here, since then the Cardinals have been in games with 38 & 30 points & St. Louis in games with 25 & 31, neither side have a chance of getting to the playoffs & this could & hopefully will be a very dull affair.

(Top rookie Ben Tate can sprint into the end zone for the Texans against the Jaguars)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans suffered dreadful news after their big win at Tampa Bay with quarterback Matt Schaub ruled out for the season with a foot injury that needs to be operated on. Fortunately the Texans running game has been excellent, unsurprising as they have a total star in Arian Foster & he has been backed up by rookie Ben Tate who has had a very good first season, scoring 3 touchdowns already with two of those coming in the last two games. The Texans have great receivers especially with Andre Johnson coming back to fitness but with backup quarterback Matt Leinart now playing they will want to keep things simple & take the pressure off him by running the ball more, that should mean that Tate is even more involved & Ladbrokes offer a standout 14/1 for Tate to score the 1st touchdown plus 21/10 that he scores at anytime.

Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Minnesota Vikings with -8.5 points (Boylesports)
Tony Gonzalez to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons game
Arizona Cardinals v St. Louis Rams to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Ben Tate to score 1st Touchdown at 14/1 & to score at anytime at 21/10 (Ladbrokes) in Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars game